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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Tuesday, December 08, 2009

Granderson/Jackson/Scherzer 3-Way Jamboree

Before catching up with some old business (I’ve had a wicked head cold for a week and a half), let’s first look at the Big 3-Way Trade.

As usual, I like to break down 3-way trades one team at a time.

The Diamondbacks acquired Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy for Max Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth.

This, I feel, is the hardest segment of the trade to justify.  Jackson took a big step forward last year and unlike the ERA improvement from 2007 to 2008, this drop in ERA was matched by improvement in his peripheral stats.  That being said, Arizona only has Jackson under control for two seasons and don’t look to be major players for any elite free agents.  In Arizona’s position, I simply rather have the extremely promising Scherzer.  I like Ian Kennedy more than a lot of people, but I find him very risky.  Simply put, most finesse pitchers don’t become Jamie Moyer and there’s an injury history here.  I’d have to think long and hard about trading Scherzer for Jackson-and-Kennedy and while I might in the end decide to do it, simply throwing in Schlereth as well puts me against the trade.

The Yankees acquired Curtis Granderson for Austin Jackson, Ian Kennedy, and Phil Coke.

Here is the easiest part of the trade to like.  It just feels so unfair for the Yankees to essentially reduce payroll (by having Granderson instead of the replacement) and acquire a solid player without giving up much of crucial value.

Again, I like Ian Kennedy, but he really didn’t have a place in the organization.  Kennedy’s not suited to be a reliever and the Yankees have a name-brand rotation.  Good brands, too, not Packard Bell or Saturn.  I feel Coke should be a decent enough reliever long-term, with a good fastball and occasional stretches of cluelessness that need to be stamped out, but he’s not a player the Yankees are going to really care about.  That just leaves Austin Jackson.  A lot of people like him, but I find him unimpressive on a statistical basis, a low-power hitter with way too many strikeouts (and a resulting extremely high BABIP that won’t carry to the majors) and from seeing his approach in person, I just don’t see how good major league pitching won’t eat him for breakfast.

Granderson is not without risk.  Theoretically, one could fix the biggest problem with Granderson, a complete inability to hit lefties, with a platoon, but platooning a player widely considered to be a star is fraught with more peril than it is when you’re platooning players in a simulation.  I simply cannot think of a lot of cases in recent years in which players with the star label in the prime of their careers are suddenly given platoon partners.  It’s widely perceived as a demotion and when it’s done, it’s usually only done very sparingly, timing rest when a very good wrong-handed opponent is on the mound.  However, even if you’re forced to take the bad with the good, Granderson’s a solid player with a very reasonable contract (guaranteed roughly $8 million per for 3 years).

The Tigers acquired Max Scherzer, Daniel Schlereth, Austin Jackson, and Phil Coke for Edwin Jackson and Curtis Granderson.

And here’s the rest.  I’m of mixed emotions here.  If he stays healthy, Scherzer could be a fixture in the Tigers rotation for a long time and when the time comes, the Tigers have the resources to keep him long-term if he’s worth it.  Schlereth is extremely promising as well.

My main quibble with this trade from Detroit’s point-of-view is that they seem to value Austin Jackson a lot more highly than I do.  They see Curtis Granderson.  I see Curtis Granderson without a lot of things that makes Curtis Granderson a really good player.  How the Tigers do in this trade will depend a lot on who was right about Jackson.  I can’t help but feel that if the Diamondbacks were interested in giving away Scherzer/Schlereth for Jackson/Kennedy (which they must have been since that’s what they did), the Tigers could have found someone else the Diamondbacks wanted instead of Kennedy, left the Yankees completely out of the trade, and hung onto Granderson.

Just as a side note, Schlereth and Scherzer are the only two players that haven’t already had a projection run this offseason, so for information’s sake, Scherzer’s top comps are Mike Witt, Tim Hudson, and Josh Beckett and Schlereth’s are Dennys Reyes, Darren Oliver, and John Rocker.

 

2010 ZiPS Projections
————————————————————————————————-
Player     W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA ERA+
————————————————————————————————-
Coke     3   4 79   0 68.1 73   39   8 29 55 5.14   89
Jackson   13 10 34 34 203.2 198   92 24 80 153 4.07 117
Kennedy   3   5 17 16 81.0 82   45   8 38 65 5.00   95
Scherzer   9   5 29 26 143.2 135   63 15 60 138 3.95 115  
Schlereth   3   2 45   0 45.2 41   23   4 33 47 4.53 100
————————————————————————————————-

 

2010 ZiPS Projections
——————————————————————————————————————
Player     AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB   BA   OBP   SLG OPS+
——————————————————————————————————————
Granderson   586 105 150 27 11 26 67 66 143 16 .256 .333 .473 109  
Jackson     551 58 136 26 4   6 50 38 132 16 .247 .298 .341   68
——————————————————————————————————————

 

 

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 08, 2009 at 10:21 PM | 145 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Page 2 of 2 pages  < 1 2
   101. BobbyS Posted: December 09, 2009 at 11:50 AM (#3407736)
Like the Yankees in this deal, post #100 is a winner...although #3 is incorrect :-p

While I think Arizona lost this one, I don't think it's unforgivably horrible...they just probably should have done a bit better.

Calmer than you are, dude.
   102. calhounite Posted: December 09, 2009 at 01:15 PM (#3407753)
Sherzer has horrible mechanics, highly injury prone past and future. A implosion evidently coming in the not too distant future. Yea, the "reliever only" card comes with it.
   103. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 09, 2009 at 02:38 PM (#3407805)
Movies-schmovies. The best quotes come from television shows. Namely, Arrested Development and It's Always Sunny."

INTERVENTION!
   104. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 09, 2009 at 02:55 PM (#3407819)
"Duh, Millers Crossing."

Just watched that one again last night. Don't hear it quoted all that often in the GP, but some absolutely classic dialogue there.
   105. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: December 09, 2009 at 02:56 PM (#3407820)
How about Anchorman?


"I love lamp"

"You have a breathtaking heinie"

"I'm kind of a big deal"

"I'd like to invite you to the pants party"

and my personal favorite:

"What the hell, bro, did you just throw a burrito out your window?"
   106. Mike Emeigh Posted: December 09, 2009 at 02:57 PM (#3407821)
Mike E, have you changed your tune on Danny Haren? Since being traded to AZ he's had arguably the best numbers of any NL starter in aggregate.


I admit that Haren's been a surprise to me. His overall patterns haven't changed - he's still a first-half pitcher and still a fly-ball guy - but he's managed mostly by limiting the damage on balls in play and by adding some strikeouts. I honestly don't know what switch gets turned off after the All-Star game (or turned on before it, maybe). He just has ungodly in-play rates in the first half (.256 in 2008, .233 in 2009) and bad ones in the second half (.375 in 2008, .315 in 2009).

I still see him as a guy who should be posting low-to-mid-4 ERAs with a W/L record around .500. But we all have our blind spots.

-- MWE
   107. William K. Posted: December 09, 2009 at 03:15 PM (#3407845)
I think from the D'backs' viewpoint, the question is
"Is 2 years of Jackson + Kennedy > X cheap years of Scherzer + Schelereth + Y years of someone like Wolf/Marquis/Pineiro?"

While I believe they shouldn't have made the trade, I'd wait and see how much the free agent starters get before evaluating this one.
   108. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: December 09, 2009 at 03:25 PM (#3407858)
Movies-schmovies. The best quotes come from television shows. Namely, Arrested Development and It's Always Sunny.


I'm finding 'Better Off Ted' surprisingly good as an Arrested Development-lite replacement:

Veronica: "Money before people," that's the company motto. Engraved on the lobby floor. It just looks more heroic in Latin.

Lem: Ted knows everything we do.
Phil: He's like a god. Only it hurts more when he judges us

Phil: Linda, you can't hurt a baby.
Lem: Well, you can hurt them. They're not indestructible.
Phil: I meant it's morally indefensible.
Lem: Well, what if the baby killed a man?
Phil: You and your moral puzzles. I just love 'em.

Veronica: But rebooting would shut down Veridian's entire worldwide operation. And that means money, which the company never parts with unless forced to by a government stronger than they are. And there's only three of those left.

Linda: I can't believe the company is treating you like this. Doesn't it make you want to scream or put your fist through a wall or rub your junk on the CEO's chair?
Ted: Yes, yes, and I only use my junk for good, not evil. With great junk comes great responsibility.
   109. dave h Posted: December 09, 2009 at 03:38 PM (#3407872)
Shop smart, shop S-Mart.
   110. Frisco Cali Posted: December 09, 2009 at 03:39 PM (#3407874)
Don't hear it quoted all that often in the GP

Maybe that's why when I say "in the rain", "ethics", or "what heart" nobody knows what I'm talking about.
   111. Gamingboy Posted: December 09, 2009 at 03:40 PM (#3407875)
Oh, I forgot Ghostbusters. Cats and Dogs, living together.... MASS HYSTERIA!


As for TV Shows, the Simpsons wins (if only due to length):
Annoyed Grunt
"Since the beginning of time, man has yearned to destroy the sun..."
"Hi, I'm Troy McClure...."
"HI, EVERYBODY!" (HI, DR. NICK!)
"WOO HOO!"
"To alcohol, the cause of, and solution to, all of life's problems."
"MmmMMmmmmm... DONUTS..."
"WORST [BLANK] EVER!"

Frink: You've got to listen to me. Elementary chaos theory
tells us that all robots will eventually turn against
their masters and run amok in an orgy of blood and
the kicking and the biting with the metal teeth and
the hurting and shoving.
Scientist: How much time do we have professor?
Frink: Well according to my calculations, the robots won't go
berserk for at least 24 hours.
(The robots go berserk.)
Frink: Oh, I forgot to er, carry the one.

"Attention. This is an emergency broadcast, all is well in the school, my authority as principal is total."
"Ha-HA!"
"YOINK!"
"Uh, is I.P. Freely here? Hey, everybody, I.P. Freely!"
"Hey, is there a Butz here? Seymour Butz? Hey, everybody, I wanna Seymour Butz!"
"Uh, Hugh Jass? Oh, somebody check the men's room for a Hugh Jass!"
"Uh, Amanda Huggenkiss? Hey, I'm looking for Amanda Huggenkiss! Ah, why can't I find Amanda Huggenkiss?"
"AHHHH! SIDESHOW BOB!"
   112. There are no words... (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: December 09, 2009 at 03:55 PM (#3407894)
"Are you a 'mod,' or a 'rocker?'"
"No, I'm a 'mocker.'"

"How did you find America?"
"Turn left at Greenland."

"'ey! 'o's tha' lit'le ol' man?"

"You're a swine."

"Put that tongue away. It's disgustin', hangin' out there all pink and naked..."

"I now declare this bridge open!"

"Sorry we hurt your field, mister."

NAME! THAT! FILM!
   113. bhoov Posted: December 09, 2009 at 04:12 PM (#3407903)
"Where I'm going, you can't follow. What I've got to do, you can't be any part of."


"I'm your huckleberry"

"Not me. I'm in my prime"

And one of the most famous lines of all:

"Bond. James Bond."

and of course "shaken, not stirred"
   114. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: December 09, 2009 at 04:16 PM (#3407908)
1776 also has quite a few good ones, but it's not as well known.


Mr. Selig, leave me aLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOONE!!!!!

I vote for Total Recall and Demolition Man.


"SCREEEEWWWWW YOUUUUUUUUUUUU!"
"Hurting people isn't a good thing. Well, sometimes it is."
   115. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: December 09, 2009 at 04:21 PM (#3407921)
Two others in the pantheon of great quote movies are Casablanca and Godfather.

Tricky for me to judge, since I've never actually seen either.


Yeah, you need to stop what you're doing and see both of those. I didn't see Casablanca until I was 29, and it's now one of my hands-down favorites.
   116. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 09, 2009 at 04:23 PM (#3407925)
Yeah, you need to stop what you're doing and see both of those. I didn't see Casablanca until I was 29, and it's now one of my hands-down favorites.

Concur, 2 of the top-10 great movies of all time.
   117. Danny Posted: December 09, 2009 at 04:33 PM (#3407938)
Very quotable movies I haven't seen mentioned yet:

Wayne's World
Royal Tenenbaums
Superbad
Pulp Fiction
   118. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: December 09, 2009 at 04:41 PM (#3407947)
NAME! THAT! FILM!

"A Hard Day's Night". Got it from the first one.
   119. Young Blasarius yonder Posted: December 09, 2009 at 05:11 PM (#3407986)
Blues Brothers has some great lines:

"Bring me four fried chickens and a Coke."

"I hate Illinois Nazis."

"Your women. I want to buy your women. The little girl, your daughters... sell them to me. Sell me your children."

"We're on a mission from God."

"Use of unnecessary violence in the apprehension of the Blues Brothers has been approved."

Elwood: "It's 106 miles to Chicago, we got a full tank of gas, half a pack of cigarettes, it's dark, and we're wearing sunglasses."
Jake: "Hit it."
   120. thetailor Posted: December 09, 2009 at 05:24 PM (#3408024)
We're just blowing through nap time, aren't we?
   121. Random Transaction Generator Posted: December 09, 2009 at 05:50 PM (#3408089)
"We're gonna need a bigger boat."
   122. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: December 09, 2009 at 05:52 PM (#3408098)
"Murdered by pirates is good."
   123. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: December 09, 2009 at 06:04 PM (#3408124)
"F***in A, bubba."

"Who's the best pilot you ever saw? You're lookin at him."
   124. cercle Posted: December 09, 2009 at 06:05 PM (#3408128)
Best quotable 80's movie: Better Off Dead
   125. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: December 09, 2009 at 06:22 PM (#3408159)
Best quotable 80's movie: Better Off Dead
"Sorry your mom blew up, Ricky."
   126. cercle Posted: December 09, 2009 at 06:35 PM (#3408178)
"This is fabulous liqueur. It reminds me of the moonshine Ricky's pappy used to make."

I cannot come across that movie on television without watching it. Never gets old.
   127. Bourbon Samurai Posted: December 09, 2009 at 06:44 PM (#3408194)
Step 1: Find the best South Park Quotes
Step 2: ???
Step 3: Profit
   128. SABRJoe Posted: December 09, 2009 at 06:59 PM (#3408215)
Wow, no love for Chevy Chase quotables like Fletch and Family Vacation? Or Bill Murray classics like Ghostbusters and Stripes? And then there's the pinnacle film with both of them: Caddyshack.

And I'm partial to Top Gun, myself.
   129. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: December 09, 2009 at 09:23 PM (#3408448)
Chevy Chase quotables like Fletch


I like to use, "I rent; I lease with an option to buy"
   130. ?Donde esta Dagoberto Campaneris? Posted: December 09, 2009 at 09:48 PM (#3408485)
Wow, no love for Chevy Chase quotables like Fletch and Family Vacation?

Good talk, Russ.

Casablanca is probably the legit title-holder, but I really like Unforgiven. With both of them you're probably better off listing the lines that aren't quotable.
   131. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 09, 2009 at 10:02 PM (#3408507)
Casablanca is probably the legit title-holder, but I really like Unforgiven. With both of them you're probably better off listing the lines that aren't quotable.

Unforgiven's lines are great, but they haven't entered the general consciousness and everday conversation 1/20th as much as Casablanca's.

The Casablanca quotes are so ubiquitous people don't even know they're quoting it half the time.
   132. Al Kaline Trio Posted: December 09, 2009 at 11:35 PM (#3408646)
Boys have a penis and girls have vaginas.

Who is your daddy and what does he do?

ITS NOT A TUMAAAHHHH!

I'm a cop you idiot!
   133. nycfan Posted: December 09, 2009 at 11:43 PM (#3408652)
Unforgiven has some


Little Bill: You just shot an unarmed man!

William Munny: Well he should've armed himself if he's gonna decorate his saloon with my friend
   134. Swedish Chef Posted: December 09, 2009 at 11:58 PM (#3408665)
"Gentlemen, you can't fight in here! This is the War Room!"
   135. Lassus Posted: December 10, 2009 at 12:34 AM (#3408684)
Best quotable 80's movie: Better Off Dead

I still use "I WANT MY TWO DOLLARS" regularly.

Also, there's always the ubiquitous "Okay, then" from Raising Arizona.
   136. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: December 10, 2009 at 01:26 AM (#3408693)
135 posts and nobody's mentioned "Blazing Saddles"???

Somebody better give me my Harrrumph!
   137. heyyoo Posted: December 10, 2009 at 03:56 AM (#3408767)
I guess Ian Kennedy would be a good test on the whole "NL is a the weaker league" theory. he is the epitome of the kind of guy that might do well in the NL after getting pwned in the AL.


Really ? Really ? Kennedy's 9 starts in 2008 at age 23 are the test case for the weaker league theory ?

It isn't a theory. It's a fact. The NL is weaker than the AL, and the pitchers in the NL west face weaker lineups than the pitchers in the AL East. That aside, I get a kick out people trying to determine ANYTHING from 9 starts from a 23 yr. old starter.
   138. A Random 8-Year-Old Eskimo Posted: December 10, 2009 at 04:43 AM (#3408789)
"So, tell me Curly, how do you know Miss Cross?"
"We went to Harvard together."
"Oh that's great. I wrote a hit play and directed it, so I'm not sweating it either."

"I understand you're a neurosurgeon."
"No, I'm a barber, but a lot of people make that mistake."

"I'll show you the door."
"It's okay. I'll just go back out the window."

"I got punched in the face. What's your excuse?"

"Tell that stupid Mick he just made my list of things to do today."

"Maybe I'm spending too much of my time starting up clubs and putting on plays. I should probably be trying harder to score chicks."
   139. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: December 10, 2009 at 04:52 AM (#3408792)
Secure that ####, Hudson!
   140. Big Ears Teddy shouldn't see TFTIO Posted: December 10, 2009 at 08:36 PM (#3409406)
"We're gonna need a bigger boat."

Allegedly, an ad-lib. If so, it's the greatest ad-lib of all time.
   141. valuearbitrageur Posted: December 11, 2009 at 04:15 AM (#3409734)
This, I feel, is the hardest segment of the trade to justify. Jackson took a big step forward last year and unlike the ERA improvement from 2007 to 2008, this drop in ERA was matched by improvement in his peripheral stats. That being said, Arizona only has Jackson under control for two seasons and don't look to be major players for any elite free agents. In Arizona's position, I simply rather have the extremely promising Scherzer.


It's ironic you wrote this, yet your own projection system produced

2010 ZiPS Projections
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Player      W   L   G  GS   IP    H   ER  HR  BB  SO   ERA  ERA+
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Jackson    13  10  34  34 203.2 198   92  24  80 153  4.07  117
Scherzer    9   5  29  26 143.2 135   63  15  60 138  3.95  115 


Zips sees what you missed. That Jackson has been pitching against the toughest lineups in major league baseball, while Scherzer has pitched against some of the weakest. And that Max simply isn't a starter, he can't get into the 6th inning regularly when the opposing lineup contains a pitcher, what is he going to do when it contains a DH? He's going to struggle even more, and throw even fewer innings per start. And that Jackson is going to cruise through the easier lineups in the NL West.

Mike Emeigh, you can say the same for Edwin Jackson. He doesn't have great command of his fastball, and he's only has a career 6.3 K/9 rate. Combine that with his BB/9 rate of 4.0 and you have to wonder what the D'backs see in Jackson that they didn't in Scherzer.


They see that he is maturing as a pitcher, that his BB rate has plummeted the last 4 years while he faced the toughest lineups around, and unlike Scherzer, he's a real starter who can get into the 7th inning regularly. They also see that he doesn't have all the injury red flags that Scherzer has.
   142. Jay Z Posted: December 11, 2009 at 06:16 AM (#3409777)
"We're gonna need a bigger boat."


Allegedly, an ad-lib. If so, it's the greatest ad-lib of all time.


So "It Stinks!" from Pod People was scripted?
   143. We don't have dahlians at the Palace of Wisdom Posted: December 11, 2009 at 06:35 AM (#3409780)
"O.R. they?"
   144. Spivey Posted: December 13, 2009 at 04:56 PM (#3411303)
The outlaw josey wales is one of the best quote/line movies

I especially like "don't piss down my back and tell me it's raining"
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