Indians - Acquired Lowe

Cleveland Indians - Acquired P Derek Lowe from the Atlanta Braves for P Chris Jones

It’s not exactly news that Lowe was surplus to requirements in
Atlanta. His health record has been exceptional – rarely missing a
turn since becoming a starter a decade ago.

The problem is that he’s 3 years removed from being an impact player.
His upside is probably league average and I’d be more than a little
surprised if he’s that good. 39 year old pitchers in a decline phase
are not what you’d call good bets. In my opinion he’s overpaid at $2
million and since the Braves are reportedly sending $10 million and
he’s due to make $5 million.

Not that I mind the over-pay in itself. I can readily imagine a team
that needs 32 or so mediocre starts. The thing is that the Indians are
awash in pretty reasonable options to fill out their rotation. Very
much like the situation he is leaving there are plenty of young
pitchers who rate to be every bit as good as Lowe even without
improving—and have a real shot at being better.

They also give up a semi-interesting suspect in Jones. Jones took a
major step forward in 2010. He more or less held it in 2011. He has
zero chance of being anything more than end of the roster filler
without several more steps, but two years ago I wouldn’t have given
him anything more than a “you never know with a young pitcher.”

2012 ZiPS Projection - Derek Lowe
————————————————————————————-

 W   L   G  GS     IP    H   ER  HR  BB  SO   ERA   ERA+
————————————————————————————-

10  12  28  28  153.2  176   85  16  57  97  4.98    84
————————————————————————————-

Top Comps:  Rick Sutcliff, Tim Belcher, Jack Morris

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

ERA

Top 1/3 5%      

Mid 1/3 31%     

Bot 1/3 64%     

ERA+            BB

>150    0%
<1.5    0%

>
140    0%  
<2.0    1%

>
130    1%  
<2.5    11%

>
120    2%  
<3.0    35%

>
110    5%  
<3.5    67%

>
100    13%  
<4.0    85%

>
90     36%

>80     64%     HR

>70     89%     <0.7    31%

                <1.0    66%

K/9             <1.3    86%

>9      0%      <1.6    94%

>8      2%

>7      9%

>6      33%

(Based on Projected IP)