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Transaction Oracle — A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen Monday, October 31, 2011Indians - Acquired LoweCleveland Indians - Acquired P Derek Lowe from the Atlanta Braves for P Chris Jones
It’s not exactly news that Lowe was surplus to requirements in
The problem is that he’s 3 years removed from being an impact player.
Not that I mind the over-pay in itself. I can readily imagine a team
They also give up a semi-interesting suspect in Jones. Jones took a
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1. Ron J Posted: October 31, 2011 at 07:43 PM (#3983635)a) 39 year olds as a group pitch a little less frequently than they did at 38 (and that's if they actually stick around. A good chunk of pitchers active at 38 are gone at 39)
b) 39 year olds as a group pitch a little worse than they did at 38
c) Lowe is moving to a DH league
d) he's moving to a stronger league
e) he's a groundball pitcher moving to a team with a less than wonderful defensive infield
All things considered, my quick and dirty estimate was 30 starts with an 86 era+. ZiPS is just a tad more pessimistic than that -- and probably has good reasons for it.
High praise...or blood libel?
Just don't go to work for ESPN, Ron!!
In the second half, he couldn't get anyone out. At all. You show me a 32 year old with a bad second half I'll give you the benefit of "regress to mean" doubt. Derek Lowe is 39, he's gone from top-of-the-rotation good to mediocre to "will make his starts" to "can't get anyone out" over the last four years. If I'm an Indians fan, I'm afraid of this move.
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