Indians - Acquired Lowe
Cleveland Indians - Acquired P Derek Lowe from the Atlanta Braves for P Chris Jones
It’s not exactly news that Lowe was surplus to requirements in
Atlanta. His health record has been exceptional – rarely missing a
turn since becoming a starter a decade ago.
The problem is that he’s 3 years removed from being an impact player.
His upside is probably league average and I’d be more than a little
surprised if he’s that good. 39 year old pitchers in a decline phase
are not what you’d call good bets. In my opinion he’s overpaid at $2
million and since the Braves are reportedly sending $10 million and
he’s due to make $5 million.
Not that I mind the over-pay in itself. I can readily imagine a team
that needs 32 or so mediocre starts. The thing is that the Indians are
awash in pretty reasonable options to fill out their rotation. Very
much like the situation he is leaving there are plenty of young
pitchers who rate to be every bit as good as Lowe even without
improving—and have a real shot at being better.
They also give up a semi-interesting suspect in Jones. Jones took a
major step forward in 2010. He more or less held it in 2011. He has
zero chance of being anything more than end of the roster filler
without several more steps, but two years ago I wouldn’t have given
him anything more than a “you never know with a young pitcher.”
2012 ZiPS Projection - Derek Lowe
————————————————————————————-
W L G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
————————————————————————————-
10 12 28 28 153.2 176 85 16 57 97 4.98 84
————————————————————————————-
Top Comps: Rick Sutcliff, Tim Belcher, Jack Morris
ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)
ERA
Top 1/3 5%
Mid 1/3 31%
Bot 1/3 64%
ERA+ BB
>150 0%
<1.5 0%
>
140 0% <2.0 1%
>
130 1% <2.5 11%
>
120 2% <3.0 35%
>
110 5% <3.5 67%
>
100 13% <4.0 85%
>
90 36%
>80 64% HR
>70 89% <0.7 31%
<1.0 66%
K/9 <1.3 86%
>9 0% <1.6 94%
>8 2%
>7 9%
>6 33%
(Based on Projected IP)
Ron Johnson
Posted: October 31, 2011 at 05:49 PM |
15 comment(s)
Login to Bookmark
Related News:
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
1. Ron J Posted: October 31, 2011 at 07:43 PM (#3983635)a) 39 year olds as a group pitch a little less frequently than they did at 38 (and that's if they actually stick around. A good chunk of pitchers active at 38 are gone at 39)
b) 39 year olds as a group pitch a little worse than they did at 38
c) Lowe is moving to a DH league
d) he's moving to a stronger league
e) he's a groundball pitcher moving to a team with a less than wonderful defensive infield
All things considered, my quick and dirty estimate was 30 starts with an 86 era+. ZiPS is just a tad more pessimistic than that -- and probably has good reasons for it.
High praise...or blood libel?
Just don't go to work for ESPN, Ron!!
In the second half, he couldn't get anyone out. At all. You show me a 32 year old with a bad second half I'll give you the benefit of "regress to mean" doubt. Derek Lowe is 39, he's gone from top-of-the-rotation good to mediocre to "will make his starts" to "can't get anyone out" over the last four years. If I'm an Indians fan, I'm afraid of this move.
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main