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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Monday, December 05, 2005

Indians - Signed Byrd

Cleveland Indians - Signed P Paul Byrd to a 2-year contract worth $14.25 million.

Kevin Millwood’s and A.J. Burnett are both out of the Indians’ desired price range, so this was one of the better pitchers left, even if he’s not $7 million good.  A Sabathia/Lee/Westbook/Byrd front four is solid, if unexciting.  Hopefully, this will end interest in bringing back Scott Elarton - either Fausto Carmona or Jeremy Sowers would be better options with more upside.

2006 ZiPS Projection - Paul Byrd
———————————————————————-
W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA
———————————————————————-
13   8 28 28 180 188   78 20 27 91 3.90

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 05, 2005 at 01:13 AM | 27 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Len Lansford, Carney Barker Posted: December 05, 2005 at 01:43 AM (#1760604)
Beaneball still lives in Cleveland. I think.

Not a bad signing, though I would've preferred Millwood to have come back. I'm wondering if the barn door might've closed behind him and Boras now, leaving them holding a smaller payoff than they were expecting.
   2. peter21 Posted: December 05, 2005 at 01:52 AM (#1760638)
This is an excellent signing for the Indians. Yes, it's a lot of money, but given the current climate it's not bad. And what's better: it's only for 2 years! Thank GOODNESS they didn't re-sign Millwood. The front four of Sabathia/Lee/Westbrook/Byrd could all post ERAs under 4, and I love the idea of Tallet/Traber/Davis/Sowers/Carmona/Miller rounding out the rotation cheaply and effectively.

Now let's not overpay (too much) for Hoffman, let Cabrera/Rhodes/Riske/Betancourt/Miller/Sauerbeck be in the bullpen (each with excellent K rates---vital for the 7th and 8th innings). Sign Nomar, let him play first with Broussard to back him up, trade 1 of the 6 aforementioned 5th starters (preferably not Miller or Sowers) to Tampa Bay for Jonny Gomes, and we're all set.

Tribe in 06!
   3. Dr Love Posted: December 05, 2005 at 01:57 AM (#1760665)
I don't see what's not to like if you're a Tribe fan. Given the current market, $7M a year for two years for an above average inning eater (when healthy) is a pretty good deal. And if he falls off a cliff, they're not on the hook with an albatross contract.
   4. sardonic Posted: December 05, 2005 at 02:14 AM (#1760713)
I would have been happier with Byrd instead of Loaiza.
   5. Dr. Vaux Posted: December 05, 2005 at 02:20 AM (#1760723)
I think Beane may have read the market wrong on Byrd, thinking that he would sign with the Angels if they made a competitive offer, so there was no point. That's what I think the Angels thought till a couple of days ago. Loaiza is also a few years younger, though.
   6. Robert S. Posted: December 05, 2005 at 02:56 AM (#1760825)
Loaiza also gets to play the 2003 card.
   7. Rafael Bellylard: Built like a Panda. Posted: December 05, 2005 at 03:02 AM (#1760847)
I'm in the minority, but I'm not crazy about this deal.

Since 1999, Byrd has only pitched over 120 innings 3 times (admittedly, those years were 199+ IP), and he didn't pitch at all in 2003. His K/IP rate last year was .5, and he's 35 years old as of yesterday.

I think they just paid 14+ million for the last two years of Kirk Rueter's career.
   8. Jim Wisinski Posted: December 05, 2005 at 03:16 AM (#1760886)
trade 1 of the 6 aforementioned 5th starters (preferably not Miller or Sowers) to Tampa Bay for Jonny Gomes

Right....
   9. Quinton McCracken's BFF Posted: December 05, 2005 at 03:29 AM (#1760913)
Dan, I was dead sure he'd sign with the O's... any comments on that? What's in store for the O's now?
   10. Halofan Posted: December 05, 2005 at 03:32 AM (#1760921)
The Angels should have taken Paul Byrd at this price.
Congratulations to the Cleveland Indians on their 2006 American League Pennant.
   11. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: December 05, 2005 at 03:35 AM (#1760933)
seriously though, Paul Byrd won't win the Indians the pennant.
   12. Dr. Vaux Posted: December 05, 2005 at 03:38 AM (#1760941)
#7, that is a possibility, but Byrd's periphs are better than Reuter's ever were. Besides, you'll never be any good if you never take any chances. You're just not going to get a sure-thing for $7 million a year. Sowers will probably have just as good of a second-half as any of the 3-4 types who are being signed, but someone's got to make sure you're in the race when the second-half rolls around.
   13. peter21 Posted: December 05, 2005 at 04:11 AM (#1761024)
trade 1 of the 6 aforementioned 5th starters (preferably not Miller or Sowers) to Tampa Bay for Jonny Gomes

Right....


I know, Tampa Bay wouldn't trade Jonny Gomes for Jason Davis. But I do think Gomes is on the market, and I do think the Indians should make a strong play for him. Depends on what TB wants, but two pitchers should get it done, or three not-as-high-grade prospects.

seriously though, Paul Byrd won't win the Indians the pennant.

The main knock on the Indians going into 2006 was replacing Millwood's production. Well, here are Byrd and Millwood's ZIPs projections.
-------------ERA---W----L--G---GS----IP------H----ER---HR---BB----K
Millwood-----3.94--12---8--30--30---185----180---81--17---56---139
Byrd---------3.90--13---8--28--28---180----188---78--20---37---91

Yes, they could stand to replace some of their killer Bs (Broussard, Blake, Boone). They could use another bullpen arm. But this is a team without any major weaknesses---how many other teams in baseball can say the same thing?
   14. Spivey Posted: December 05, 2005 at 04:29 AM (#1761070)
The main knock on the Indians going into 2006 was replacing Millwood's production.

Well, he's not replacing Millwood's production with those numbers. Just what Millwood can be expected to produce in the future.
   15. peter21 Posted: December 05, 2005 at 04:35 AM (#1761078)
Well, he's not replacing Millwood's production with those numbers. Just what Millwood can be expected to produce in the future.

Understood, but contrary to what many people---especially in Cleveland---believe, even Millwood himself wouldn't replace Millwood's production. Byrd should get the Indians comparable production in 2006, for less money and less years.

The Indians' pitching likely will be worse in 2006 than it was in 2005. Then again, the Indians' pitching was the AL's BEST in 2005; dropping to third or fourth best shouldn't hurt too much (plus, CC Sabathia and Jake Westbrook should be better in 06, and the 5th starter---likely Sowers---will be better than Elarton was).
   16. Erik (Don't Touch My Monkey) Posted: December 05, 2005 at 07:54 AM (#1761325)
As an Angel's fan. I'm kind of pissed hearing this. I guess we can officially say that Paul Byrd was full of crap when he talked about wanting to return to the Angels last year.
   17. Artie Ziff Posted: December 05, 2005 at 03:59 PM (#1761469)
Byrd will not even win them the division. They should compete for most of the season though. A big deadline deal could get them in the playoffs. This seems like a lot of dough for a geezer like Byrd.
   18. peter21 Posted: December 05, 2005 at 04:16 PM (#1761488)
Byrd will not even win them the division. They should compete for most of the season though.

Tough to identify one player in 25 who will win a team the division---besides Barry Bonds. The team will be better with Byrd than without him.

The Indians will likely win the division, they're better than every other team in their division (then again, this was true in 2005 too, and look what happened...)

What's scary is that Grady Sizemore, Coco Crisp, Jhonny Peralta, CC Sabathia, Cliff Lee, and Victor Martinez aren't even in their primes yet.
   19. Ziggy Posted: December 05, 2005 at 04:48 PM (#1761531)
What's scary is that Grady Sizemore, Coco Crisp, Jhonny Peralta, CC Sabathia, Cliff Lee, and Victor Martinez aren't even in their primes yet.

Indeed. The Indians are going to be very good for many many years. Peralta and Martinez are something special, the others are good and cheap. Paul Byrd is not a great pitcher, but this stage in the success cycle is exactly when a team should sign FAs, and Byrd happened to be the one that was available. I'm going with the Tribe in 06 also. I don't think Chi can repeat.
   20. Dr. Vaux Posted: December 05, 2005 at 04:55 PM (#1761544)
It's not official yet, by the way. Everyone's now reporting it as "close" to happening.
   21. Russ Posted: December 05, 2005 at 07:41 PM (#1761839)
The Indians are going to be very good for many many years.

It's like deja vu...

::Puts on MTV to watch a Nirvana video::
   22. Cowboy Popup Posted: December 05, 2005 at 08:06 PM (#1761918)
"Peralta and Martinez are something special, the others are good and cheap."

You don't think Sizemore is going to be something special (.289/.348/.484 at age 22)? I can think of two, maybe 3 centerfielders that outhit him this year, and they're all much older and one of them is Griffey, who can't play center.

They are stacked up the middle right now.
   23. Bernal Diaz has an angel on his shoulder Posted: December 06, 2005 at 12:57 AM (#1762660)
seriously though, Paul Byrd won't win the Indians the pennant.

You are right. Pronk, Grady, Coco, CC, Jhonny, Westbrook, Cliff Lee and VMart will win the Indians the pennant.

Byrd will win a couple of games in the playoffs and World Series.
   24. The Rocky Colavito Revue Posted: December 06, 2005 at 01:38 AM (#1762743)
I'm going Kerrigan on Casey Blake if I see him. Someone let Snyder/Gutierrez in RF.
   25. league average innings eater Posted: December 06, 2005 at 07:05 AM (#1763259)
aarrghmm(slurp)ghrhrm(smack)mmahrm(crunch)ghrrmm
   26. The Hop-Clop Goes On (psa1) Posted: December 06, 2005 at 07:10 AM (#1763264)
league average innings eater Posted: December 06, 2005 at 02:05 AM (#1763259)
aarrghmm(slurp)ghrhrm(smack)mmahrm(crunch)ghrrmm


Hmm, I didn't know that was Paul Byrd behind me at the opera the other day.
   27. Elton Posted: December 06, 2005 at 03:22 PM (#1763531)
It's a little more money than I thought it would take to get Byrd, but I'm not complaining. Except for Millwood's fluky ERA title, the Indians starting pitching was on the whole very average last year, and it should be even more reliably average now. Combined with a strong bullpen and a good young offense, durable average starting pitching should be good enough to contend again.

I'm still torn on whether to resign Elarton. I always like to see a guy rebound from a free-fall, but I'd love to see one of the kid pitchers get a chance.

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