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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Sunday, April 04, 2004
Los Angeles Dodgers
Acquired OF Milton Bradley from the Cleveland Indians for OF Franklin Gutierrez.
The Dodgers needed a hitter, so that’s what they went out and got. Bradley’s not Bonds material, but the Dodgers offense was so bad last year that marginal offensive runs have nifty value and it’s not like Juan E’s arrival was going to be a huge help.
The Indians didn’t come out of this empty-handed, far from it, despite their announcement that they had to trade Milton before the season started. Gutierrez is a very interesting prospect with a lot of talent. 282/345/513 isn’t jaw-dropping, but a 20-year-old doing that in Vero Beach is mighty impressive. He had a great cup of coffee in AA ball and should start there this year. Young outfield depth is a plus for the Indians, so they won’t surh him.
Dan Szymborski
Posted: April 04, 2004 at 09:07 PM | 21 comment(s)
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If they re-invest the savings.
("Are you open?")
There is a lot of foul ground however, but even the best corner outfielders can't chase down a lot of the foul balls that bounce on the rubberized warning track.
Except for the year when the Dodgers had Darren Lewis playing left field.
Years of intensive therapy have tried to remove that from my memory.
Based on all this, I don't think there's any reason NOT to expect that Ishii (barring injury, of course) will be a very solid major league starter. One can question the wisdom of signing any pitcher to a 4-year deal, but I simply don't see why we can't say that this guy is a good addition to the Dodgers' rotation in 2002.
That said, I'd be wary of Ishii's BB/9. If he was wild in Japan, where hitters take a walk reluctantly, I'm curious to see how that'll translate over here.
Three things:
1) There has in fact been much greater MLB competitive balance in the 35 years since the amateur free agent draft was introduced than in the 35 years previously.
2) The cause-and-effect relationship there is definitely debatable.
3) My main point: competitive balance was NOT MLB's overriding objective with the free agent draft; rather it was to control the costs associated with bidding wars for top prospects -- remember "Bonus Babies?"
The only conceivable way many minor leagues will go back to operating as independents is if they can be profitable in doing so. I really doubt that there's a market for them to do so.
So, you're right, Olperfesser, that these Swamp Thing relievers just do seem to appear from time to time without warning. I remember one that appeared on the Giants' roster in the mid-1980s, a lefthander named Joe Price. The guy had been nothing special for years, and then one day he showed up just throwing the hell out of the ball, blowing everybody away. This lasted for about a half a season, and then he immediately reverted to being nothing special again. It was as though his body had been inhabited by the spirit of Lefty Grove for a few months.
Too bad. I missed watching him pitch those agonizingly slow pitches and see the hitters screw themselves into the ground trying to wait on them. The fact that Jones could be successful for so long is why baseball is so great: there's more than just athleticism to this sport, there's a definite art to it.
I'm sure if I check hard enough I'll find his name in an independent league somewhere this season unless his trap door circle change has gone......well..full circle.
On the other hand, Dodger games should finish faster now since there will be fewer pitches thrown.
Lo Duca would be a pretty short first baseman. He's only listed at 5'9" and seems shorter. He might migrate to the outfield, although I don't know if he will hit with enough power.
LoDuca is going to be 30 and while the number of major league games caught is low, how many minor league, college, high school games has he caught? I would let him play out his arbitration years and then walk in free agency because he is probably as likely to be mediocre next year as he is to keep up this level of performance.
What if he does regress? You are stuck with him for three years. Not at big money, but not a whole lot less than he would get through his first two arb years. They are paying $7.25m for this year and his first two arb years. Posada made $5.5m during those same three years.
As for Sabathia, what about Kerry Wood? The Indians have the hammer the first two years and are essentially paying him $9m for his first two arb years. Pettitte made $10m those two years, but the Yanks weren't tied to it if he bombed out. Didn't they learn anything from Jaret Wright?
I checked LoDuca's minor league stats yesterday when I read about this and he doesn't seem to have been used too heavily in the minors, less than 700 games there plus 200 in the majors is 900 games over 9 years. I don't know if that was due to injury (he does have some low game totals in some seasons) nor do I know if all games were at C.
The homers are new, but he always hit lots of doubles in the minors. I know Albuquerque is a hitters park and Las Vegas probably is too, but still his career AAA OPS is 894 with a slug of 481, so I suppose we should continue to expect decent power for a C with a high OBP.
I agree with Sean that I really don't understand some of these recent deals from the team's perspective (incl Sabathia and even Berkman to an extent). I know they gain some cost certainty, but the risk doesn't seem worth it.
It goes against the stated rules of making all threads about the Mets and Red Sox. I believe this particular thread may be a statistical outlier.
Now contracts that tie a young guy up for a couple arbitration years and 1-2 years of FA are an excellent idea (depending on the player and the $$ of course).
I'm not arguing that LoDuca and Sabathia are bad players or are even likely to be bad players for the money. I just don't see the need to buy out the arbitration years at something less than a significant discount. If you are going to tie up a player for four years (when you don't have to in order to keep them), then you should be able to save more than $3m or so.
Perhaps I'm underestimating just how much these guys will make in arbitration.
Credit goes to Dierker for making sure he did play.
LoDuca I traded a bunch for this offseason simply because I can't catch a damn break at catcher (imagine going through last year with Gregg Zaun and Ramon Castro on your roster), and decided to try and solve the problem once and for all, AND I look like I can make a run at the whole enchilada this year and being a replay league, I get to use LoDuca's 2001 numbers this year.
If he hits like Geno Petralli next year it won't look so great, but my hand was forced.
My record as a DMB GM after three seasons in the league. Trades have been okay (with one unthinkable steal and one bad brain cramp), but the Draft has really helped me a ton. I have a good team right now, and five of mine 9 position starters were draft picks and three of my five starting pitchers were draft picks, and I've only had four drafts (including the one I just did).
I wonder if that would be the standard stathead profile in such a league: so-so trading, very good drafting...
Plus the problem I have in fantasy trading is I keep overrating the other GM. I think up a deal and think "god, nobody in their right mind would go for that" and so I sweeten the pot before offering. I don't think I've ever seriously ripped anyone off.
Anyway, since we're on the topic, I would love to get into a serious league or two, preferably Diamond Mind (since I already own it), but I'd be open to other options. So if folks have openings in their leagues, please let me know.
I'd tend to lean toward 10 team, slow live draft, fantasy point, but I could be persuaded by force of dissenting opinion.
One of the things I noticed about DMB leagues is that there are three types of owners:
1. The guys who just enjoy baseball and all things baseball and are happy to play a game with such a strong relationship to the game itself. For guys who are a little older, it keeps them abreast of the current players and who to watch out for. They might get the most out of the league but generally do the worst of the three groups.
2. The used car salesman. This guy doesn't look and doesn't care who the top prospects are unless they happen to be from the city he lives in so he knows about them. But what this guy can do is work up these trades where absolutely nobody but him knows exactly what was going on: three-way trades, four-way trades, five-way trades, all involving 10 or more players. The idea is that if a trade of player A for player B is a clear rip off, start adding all sorts of extraneous and meaningless garbage to the deal in order to confuse everybody so it no longer looks like a rip-off. Short-term, _all_ of these guys do well. They tend to not stick in a league all that long since after about four years the middle of the pack guys at this wind up with a team roughly resembling the Baltimore Orioles. Old and not good. But the best of this group can rip people off ad infinitem and are a real pain in the ass to beat.
3. The micro-manager. He's got plans upon plans upon plans for late round draft picks, free agent pick-ups, and such. They generally tear apart their club with trades and what have you when they first get it, in order to get it heading in the direction they want. After that they don't trade so much. They tend to get out of control scouting prospects since it brings the most interesting way to add to the club. It _can_ get them in trouble if they're not careful. Almost all of the statheads (myself included) fit this category.
Interestingly, all three groups understand the basics of sabermetrics, since most used sims (Strat and DMB) reward this knowledge: walks and on-base percentage and such. So survival is predicated upon figuring out that walks help.
You have to look out for leagues where the commissioner is a little more interested in winning than running a good league. When the commissioner's team wins 110 games three years in a row, and executes trade after trade where he robs somebody and that person leaves the league quickly thereafter...
I think the leagues tend to be more statistically aware than the average fan simply because the games have such a heavy statistical element to them. Even Gary, who wants no part of being called a stathead, is far more statistically aware than the average fan. You don't have to be a stathead to know OBP is important.
Toward the end of last season, Herges wasn't getting batted around pretty hard.
Not a great role model in my opinion. Besides, Herges was 32 so just how many seasons was he expecting to play for the Dodgers. 7 or 8 would have been optimistic.
But stories in the papers today are mentioning how the Dodgers will miss Herges' "clubhouse leadership" and "good chemistry."
Eric Gagne has the inside track to be the closer, but Carrarra and Quantrill will also help out.
Lots 'o Canadians in that pen.
Rockies 1993-1999 (minus Bichette)
From where I'm sitting, Montreal got the only really useful player in the deal, so thumbs up to them.
Nevertheless, he showed last year that you can't get out hitters by being popular.
You also say that Herges was hit hard at the end of last season, but May and July were his worst months and August and September were right around his season averages.
And the 7 blown save opportunities did rankle those of us in LA a bit, although Jeff Shaw was trying to corner the market in that department.
Trevor Hoffman was also converted from shortstop, so it's not exactly like it never works.
Mota is more than 3 years younger than Herges, he has more velocity, and he has a better than league average career ERA+. Using similarity scores, the pitcher most similar to Mota by age is Heathcliff Slocumb (Slocumb posted an ERA+ of 157 over his next three seasons).
Mota was very effective the first three months of last season, before he came down with a sore shoulder. He was also good in 1999 and the second half of 2000, though he was terrible in the first half of 2000. Mota's road ERA and opposing batting average were better than Herges last season, and his career road numbers are also better.
The biggest concern with Mota (aside from lacking a consistent second pitch) would seem to be that he did have a sore shoulder last season. His ERA after he returned from the DL was 10.57. He has looked good so far this spring (6 scoreless appearances), so perhaps he is healthy.
So to summarize: Mota is younger and (arguably) has the higher ceiling. Mota is also probably the greater injury risk. Herges has been more consistent, but some of his seeming statistical superiority can be attributed to his home park.
Herges is more valuable if they both pitch exactly like they did last season and would seem the safer bet, but Mota is the better break-out candidate. I'm not sure who won this trade, but I think that the widespread assumption that LA got snookered is premature.
It is a fine day.
The other great SNK baseball game was Little League. Pretty much the same game engine as baseball stars, but the skills of the players were dumbed down a bit. Still my favorite video game to this day. For some reason Canada was awesome in that game. RBI was great too, but only the first one where the players were fat. Plus, it had the '86 Angels
Personally, I prefer Tecmo *Super* Bowl to Tecmo Bowl.
I too know of the existence of emulators and ROMs, but as I've seen elsewhere, things of this nature of dubious legality lead to massive threads containing piracy flame wars.
Of course, the All-Time Best Sports Video Game Ever is NBA Jams for the Sega Genesis. I have never laughed so hard while playing a video game. Plus me and my college roommate once scored 200 points in one game. I think we won 200-12 or something like that.
First, my SNK friend ALWAYS took the American Dreams (he would beat on me if I tried to take them, and since I was a dork I had no way out). I was the Ninja Blacksox, and after the games were over, he would hit me because I infuriated him with my basepath antics.
Second, in RBI baseball, Mike Scott is EVIL for Houston. He can throw the "change-up drop" well into the 7th inning. The most difficult thing to do in RBI is to determine whether or not the change-up is going to drop. I have nightmares of the shaking pitch, followed by me swinging just as I see the dirt fly. YMMV...
It was just as Vinay said about the code, but then you had to select something by going up, down, left, right, down, down, up. At least I think that was the order.
Then you started with a team comparable to the Dreams that you could build to be even better.
Yes! I used to play RBI baseball; I can't remember which version...it had the 1992 teams. My brother and I played almost an entire season; he was the 92 Twins and I was the Padres. We logged our stats by hand after every game. Sheffield homered every third at bat on average. Anyway, I would always bring in Pat Clements in relief, the all-time dirt-ball king. He was unhittable.
I loved that game. You could block line drives with your players' faces and they would catch the ball on the rebound.
Is that the game featured in the movie Swingers?
My brother bought that game at a pawnshop because of Swingers. :)
Yeah. Electronic Arts NHL Hockey... definitely a great game. I'm not sure which version they're using, but they complain that they can't fight like they could in older verions:
Trent: I wish they still had fights in this game so I could #####-slap Wayne.
The Amarillo Dillas, of the Texas-Louisianna League (Independent)
http://www.abqjournal.com/paperboy/text/sports/693477sports05-26-02.htm
I have a question about names. It's traditional at a school to have the boys' team be the Whatevers and the girls' team be the Lady Whatevers. So, if there's a word that means the same thing as "Lady Whatevers", why don't schools use that instead?
I went to Fox Chapel High School, and the girls' teams were the 'Lady Foxes' (as opposed to the 'Vixens'). I've seen schools with the 'Lady Cowboys', 'Lady Blue Demons', and 'Lady Mustangs', and I'm sure there are others. Why is this the case?
Do you think teams that are called "Bulldogs" will call their women's teams "#######"?
In cases where there's _nothing_ wrong with the word (I'm not talking about obvious outliers like Georgia here :P), why don't schools/teams use it?
I think that trend is taking over at a lot of colleges now.
I should have signed this as Fox Mulder.
I don't see what hole Cabrera fills. Reboulet was put on the DL and should be ready to play when the 15 days are up. Kinkade was called up to replace him. The Dodgers already have three middle infielders they can mix and match.
I can't imagine that the Dodgers are thinking of trading Cora, whose bat has been possessed by aliens this year.
The Dodgers only lost by 3 because of it.
Cabrera appeared in 38 games for the Indians this season, hitting .111 with seven RBIs.
Right now, he couldn't do any worse than what they've got.
If this deal goes down, the Giants are going to be a-skeered.
Again, I smell pennant!
That's what she said...
Even though I have Kung-Fu in my DMB keeper league, I'm more looking forward to what he can't refrain from doing. :)
What would Adrian Beltre fetch on the open market?
I don't think Houston can play the OF. He's only played three games there in his big league career.
You mean the 5-10 record coming out of the All-Star Break isn't a thud?
You mean getting no runners to second base off of Bobby Jones isn't a thud?
You mean thinking that Tyler Houston will save the team isn't a thud in its own right?
The Dodgers upcoming series in Cincinnati could tell the tale if the Dodgers will make the playoffs. The Dodgers in recent years have played very poorly against the Reds and they may actually put the Reds into position to grab the wild card lead.
And then we'll all have to learn what a managerial genius Bob Boone is.
Magnante was at UCLA when I was going there and when he first pitched, UCLA coach Gary Adams didn't know what his name was when asked about him.
Also, ESPN Radio in Chicago is reporting that this is the first leg of a multi-team trade that will eventually send Karros to Colorado, Bobby Hill to Montreal, and Denny Neagle, Jose Vidro, and others to the Cubs.
So, on its own, I say it's not a bad trade as long as the players are used correctly. As part of a bigger deal, it may actually turn out to be good.
But still, I say that even if the LA trade is the end of it, it's a net positive for the Cubs. I can't believe the Dodgers actually gave up two guys with all their limbs for Hundley.
In general, I'm not too excited about the concept of a closer. If Jimenez is a good pitcher (which it appears that he is), I'd be psyched to have him, but taking a good pitcher and artifically restricting his appearances to save situations is bad baseball.
Now, you're right, he's certainly an upgrade over Pulpo, and having him in the bullpen along with Remlinger would give the Cubs a really nice 1-2 punch.
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