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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Sunday, April 04, 2004
Los Angeles Dodgers
Acquired OF Milton Bradley from the Cleveland Indians for OF Franklin Gutierrez.
The Dodgers needed a hitter, so that’s what they went out and got. Bradley’s not Bonds material, but the Dodgers offense was so bad last year that marginal offensive runs have nifty value and it’s not like Juan E’s arrival was going to be a huge help.
The Indians didn’t come out of this empty-handed, far from it, despite their announcement that they had to trade Milton before the season started. Gutierrez is a very interesting prospect with a lot of talent. 282/345/513 isn’t jaw-dropping, but a 20-year-old doing that in Vero Beach is mighty impressive. He had a great cup of coffee in AA ball and should start there this year. Young outfield depth is a plus for the Indians, so they won’t surh him.
Dan Szymborski
Posted: April 04, 2004 at 09:07 PM | 21 comment(s)
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Why would the Rox keep Karros? He's perfectly okay in my book, but I can't see the Rockies benefiting from trading Helton. I think Karros would have to be part of another trade.
So...if the back-end of this trade cascades through all these teams (and roll in probably Karros from Colorado for ??) can anyone remember seeing an off-season (or in-season) w/multiple trades of such compound-ness before?
Actually, it not being my money, I like the idea of Karros as an $8 million lefty-masher off the bench and occasional platoon partner for Choi.
Also, ESPN Radio in Chicago is reporting that this is the first leg of a multi-team trade that will eventually send Karros to Colorado, Bobby Hill to Montreal, and Denny Neagle, Jose Vidro, and others to the Cubs.
This is nuts. People, Vazquez and Jimenez are free agent eligible after 2003. You don't give up two top prospects for the benefit of one year of these guys. And Vidro isn't signed beyond 2004.
This is SO much worse than the trade as it stands, which is only a problem if Baker actually plays these guys. Of course, we know he will....
At least, as the trade stands, the damage is only for one year.
They would keep Karros if it means losing the Neagle contract, and keep Helton to boot.
He's also saying he doesn't buy into the rumors about the Expos or Rockies, so I guess those deals are certain.
Roster spots are valuable. Hundley can be a decent 25th man, spot-starting at first or catcher once a week and providing a power threat off the bench. Even with his struggles last year, he averaged 2 bases per hit, and he's streaky enough that a rebound wouldn't be entirely out of the question.
That doesn't even account for the way that it forces the Dodgers to use the young players on their roster. Thurston is probably already better then the iron-gloved Grudzielanek, and it's time for LA to fish or cut bait on Chen, who isn't going to get any better with more time at AAA.
This is like a case study in how rumors get started -- I only posted that column based on what I had read here. Of course, now that Phil Rogers of the Corporate Mouthpiece is talking about it, it must be true.
The total Grudz/Karros bill comes to $14 million at best (Grudz has a 500K buyout). If Karros gets the dreaded 500 PA, he gets that 9 million; remember moving that vesting into a straight club option was only unless Karros was traded.
The value of all these guys is approximately zero, so I don't see the point of paying $14 million in 1 year rather than $12.5 over two.
Karros mashing lefties as justification doesn't really do it for me. Finding the small part of a platoon is child's play, even in an unusually weak minor league FA market. I also don't believe it's in the Cubs interests to start pigeonholing Choi in the manner that Shawn Green was.
Me either, but it's a way that this could work out okay for the Cubs.
The report is that both Karros/Grudz and Hundley amount to $15.5 million, with Hundley being paid over two years. Both Hundley and Grudz apparently have to agree to some deferment. Overall, it's pretty much a wash money-wise.
As it stands, with this deal the Cubs turn Hundley, whom they view as the baseball equivalent of a fart in a spacesuit, into Karros and Grudz. Objectively, I think there is no way this is anything but a bad deal for the Cubs, but the Cubs came into this with a certain point-of-view. You can look at the bright side regarding Hundley, who 1. did not perform as badly as people thought and 2. would actually be useful. But the Cubs got their panties in a wad about Hundley months ago and can't get them unstuck again. They HAD to get rid of him. Looking at the bright side with Karros and Grudz, you have two guys who are good bench players in exchange for something you absolutely had to get rid of.
Are the Cubs worse off with Karros/Grudz as bench players than they are with Hundley? Probably, but not too badly. Certainly they are much worse off if they have larger roles.
Would this mean that the Expos payroll has been set? If so, Minaya has been spinning a farrago of lies, and I for one don't buy it.
It would also be, in no uncertain terms, a horrible deal for the Expos, unloading Tatis notwithstanding. They can get more for these players separately.
Just had to get that off my chest.
What gives?
The Cubs are in active trade discussions with Texas, whereby the Cubs would send Corey Patterson, Courtney Duncan, and Kyle Farnsworth to Texas in return for Alex Rodriguez and cash. Certain details need to be worked out (namely, the amount of cash and A-Rod's no-trade rights), but sources close to the negotiations report that the deal is essentially done.
I'm just saying that I'd like to see something besides smoke before I shout "Fire!"
Just so we're clear, I don't work for the Sun-Times, and I don't have any "sources" for the Koch-to-the-Cubs rumor other than the two posts that I read on this thread, both of whom reported it second-hand from radio programs. I don't have any other sources because it's, you know, a rumor.
Anyway, how about that Hundley-to-the-Dodgers trade? I stand by my original statement that it could turn out to be a decent trade on its own merits, as long as Dusty can keep himself from writing Karros and Grudz's names on the lineup card every day.
Perhaps Brian Sabean was in a Pontius Pilate mood.
For what it's worth, Bruce Miles of the Daily Herald says that Hendry vehemently denies that any of the rumors being floated have any basis.
Phil Rogers mentioned the possibility of a Farnsworth/pitching prospect trade to Texas for Hank Blalock, which sounds great to me if not hard to believe, but as of now it seems that the Cubs intend to hold on to Karros and Grudzielanek.
What IS scary is the fact that both the Sun Times and Tribune are talking about the Cubs sending Hundley AND a PTBNL. This is very bad, unless the Cubs are going to dump more roster dead weight.
This is the same Eric Karros who had four home runs on the road all of last year, and who has 27 road home runs in the last three years?(Compared to 32 at home.) Forgive me if I am sceptical.
I think Rogers was saying Farnsworth, Miller plus a pitching prospect, and presumably a good one (Zambrano or Cruz).
I would do it.
That makes that alot more interesting, and I believe would set a record. How many teams have traded 3 ML Catchers in one off season and signed a 4th?
Who would the third be? Hundley, Miller....
That's one more post-Santo third baseman gone -- the next person to play third base for the Cubs will be, by my count, the 98th person to do so since Santo was traded after the '73 season.
So, Stynes is gone, huh? Talk about a guy who was never given a chance to succeed.
Baylor was completely incapable of handling role players, particularly figuring out how to use the lefty-masher.
When was the last time the Giants started a promising young player?
When was the last time the Giants had a promising young player to play? Baker's record in the few chances he had is spotty, but he didn't have a whole lot to work with.
The LA Times reports this today, and says the PTBNL will be "another major leaguer." Unless it's Stynes, this will tip the trade, in my mind, from "potentially good" to "50/50 or less."
Mueller may have "blocked" Feliz in 2000 (and that's debateable), but by 2001, he had been traded to Chicago to make room for Feliz at third. Feliz got a fair trial at third -- Russ Davis, brought in as insurance, was eventually released and Feliz eventually shared time with Ramon Martinez. Feliz ended up posting really poor numbers (227/264/373) in over 230 PAs -- a decent, if not large, sample size.
I've been a pretty vocal critic of Baker throughout his tenure in San Francisco, but Jeff is right in pointing out that, for the most part, it's not like Baker had a whole bunch of promising youngsters on the bench and chose not to play them. When he had young players, he often let them play. Some turned out well (Mueller, and especially Rich Aurilia, come to mind), most (Benard, Feliz, Rios, Estalella) did not.
With the Cubs, he's got highly touted young players who many people around baseball feel are ready to play every day, something he rarely had in San Francisco. Now that he has Karros & Grudz, we will see if his reputation is deserved or not.
True, but a bit misleading. In 1996, at age 24, he got the majority of the PT at shortstop (318 ABs, 352 PAs) and put up 239/295/296 numbers. Much like Feliz 5 years later, he got a shot and didn't come through.
I feel like I'm in some Bizarro world, arguing against the concept that Baker doesn't let young talent develop. You're right, the Giants have had a pretty poor record when it comes to young talent. But it seems to me it was more a problem of poor scouting & player development, since a number of younger players got the chance to play. It's not (necessarily) Baker's fault that, when given playing time, they didn't perform.
I absolutely agree with you, though, that if he ends up playing Grudz and Karros, it will be indicative. The Cubs fan in me hopes he won't, but the baseball fan in me fears he will.
Hermansen, huh? Talk about unfulfilled potential. I think he's still got a decent chance of becoming a good player. He's only 25, even though it seems like he's been around forever.
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Hermansen's got all kinds of ability, and the only think he needs right now is a coach who can teach him how to spot breaking balls. The Pirates never worked on that part, for some reason. He's in sort of the same place that Ruben Rivera was at age 24; maybe a season with the Giants will do for Chad what it did for everybody's favorite glove-napper.
I'm not sure what you meant by your comment... Jack Wilson *crushes* lefties... it's those nasty northpaws that cause him fits.
Disregard anything I've said in the last 24 hours; I'm obviously losing my grip on reality.
Because theoretically, they now have more payroll flexibility for next year, when they might be able to make some moves that will take them from decent to good, instead of this year, where the best they could hope for would be to move from bad to decent.
No, it's unlikely he will be the platoon partner. Kinkade or another free agent pickup.
He should be a DH.
Unless he's moving back to the outfield, at some point he needs to be allowed to learn on the major league level.
What's harder to believe is that Alvarez was the hotter prospect in the Fletcher/Alvarez/Sosa for Baines/Manrique trade.
Of course what's hardest to believe is that Scooter Fletcher had just recently been on the cover of Sports Illustrated, but that's really not relevant.
I guess he could be turned into a useful long reliever for LA. Can't hurt to try.
Not exactly: The Soviets never tried to put missles in Venezuela and we've never bought a lot of oil from the D.R. But if names like Shin-Soo Choo, Ed Rogers and Chao Wang are on that BA list it seems likely that a Venezuelan or two might have taken a shot at it.
Perhaps he's going after Omar Daal's Venezuelan lefty spot in the rotation?
Daryle Ward has hit a foul ball completely out of Dodger Stadium. I believe he hit off of Darren Dreifort in a Sunday night game (or was it Park).
It was a mighty poke, although it actually went over the roof between home and first.
I may pay attention to Lugo since I heard on a local news report that he went to my high school. Crap like that interests me since Rich Aurillia is the only player I've ever heard from to come from my old high school.
1999: 100
I saw the Mackowiak HR live. We were playing either Oakland or Texas and getting killed, and it was just about the only thing to cheer for that day. Except the free hat (the Frost Cap I'm wearing right now), if it was in fact Oakland.
I'd take that plus a lottery ticket reliever (I think the other Diaz is a throw-in) for an outfielder I didn't need.
Now that Burnitz has played very, very well for 3 months, my personal expectations for him have changed. I was wrong and the computer was wrong about Burnitz and I have no problem with that.
I hope the Mets already know that Timo Perez is *not* an everyday player, at least not on a good team.
Sadly, the contracts to middle relievers was one of the smaller mistakes of the Phillips regime. Think about it: you've got Mo V., Alomar, Cedeno, Billy Taylor, not resigning John Olerud, banking on a David Cone comeback -- on that list, where does overpaying guys who, for the most part, have at least done an OK job, fall? But I agree that I prefer the stockpiling approach.
I will say this, though: for all the (justified) bashing of Steve Phillips, his basic approach to building a team actually worked for several years, culminating in the 2000 NL championship. In the debacle that was the 2001-02 off-season, he didn't really do anything different (acquiring veterans with substantial histories of success) than he'd done when he stockpiled veterans like Piazza, Hampton, Olerud, Leiter, and Ventura. The difference is that before, it worked. The real, underlying problem with Phillips was not whether his judgment calls panned out. I mean, at the time, acquring Robby Alomar was pretty much exactly the same move as acquiring Mike Piazza had been. The first time it worked spectacularly; the second time, well . . . . No, Phillips' real problem was two-fold: First, he was a one-trick pony (trade prospects for -- or sign as free agents -- veterans), and lacked the flexibility to combine multiple approaches to building a quality team over time. And second, he got desperate and began to take bigger risks hoping for a bigger pay-off (Mo Vaugn being Exhibit A).
The more I read about Victor Diaz the more I like. Right now, I can't think of anyone in the Mets' organization other than Kazmir who has a better combination of the young age and quality performance that leads me to see a potential star at the ML level. It's only potential, yes, but would I rather have that, or the next 2+ months Burnitz? Not a close call.
It is true they liked Zeile's potential to play 3B if necessary. But that was one expensive insurance policy for Ventura . . . .
I think Burnie's here to stay, as a much improved hitter in his mid 30s, Finley style. Until his body breaks down, I see no reason for the current numbers to decline. He swung this well before a broken hand and then came back without missing a beat. He's a great pickup for LA as long as Diaz doesn't become something special
Anyone else scared about Duquette getting four relievers out of six so far? I mean sure its nice to have pitching depth in the minors, but i'd like to see some young OF prospects coming back instead. When no one in your minor leaguers could be better than Roger Cede?o and Timo Perez you've got a problem.
Re Olerud: I believed it was his wife the one that wanted to go back to Seattle, but he wasn't so sure. Either way, when the catalyst of your lineup is trying to leave, you have make sure you do anything in your power to make him stay.
What did you guys think about letting Fonzie go, i mean in hindsight that was a stroke of genius, but i certainly thought it was going to be a part deux of the Olerud fiasco.
They should have offered arbitration. Alfonzo's RBIs would have kept his price quite reasonable on the off chance that he accepted.
And even apart from the Floyd issue, they made the right call not keeping Alfonzo. You know, you can't have it both ways. You can't nuke Phillips for not giving young players a shot, being too wedded to "established" veterans, etc., and then be unhappy that he gave Wigginton a shot. (Granted, he only did it when his efforts to replace Alfonzo with someone else fell through, but still; the result was to give a farm system product a chance.) Valuable as he was, Alfonzo is *precisely* the kind of player who, if he was coming from Detroit or Houston or someplace else, we would be up in arms if Phillips had signed. Why should we feel differently if he had resigned him?
And as far as offering arbitration to retain the draft picks goes, OK, that's an option. But it's a big gamble, if what you really want is to shed your payroll of a particular player. If he takes the offer, you're screwed.
-- MWE
Before I posted #44 I was racking my brain trying to think of a comp. Cordero never came to mind, probably because I've blocked out his performance in a Bucco uniform :) Nice call.
-- MWE
Look at that OPS! But Hey, he's an RBI guy. Nevermind that the Dodgers problem is getting men on base.
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