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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Saturday, February 09, 2008

Mariners - Acquired Bedard

Seattle Mariners - Acquired P Erik Bedard from the Baltimore Orioles for OF Adam Jones, P George Sherrill, P Chris Tillman, P Kam Mickolio, and P Tony Butler.

Best wishes to Bedard, the new Five-for-One.  It’s hard to believe, but the infamous Von Hayes trade is now a quarter-of-a-century past.

Ideally, I’d like the O’s to be at the end of a rebuilding process and signing Bedard for the long-haul to take the bad taste of the gross mishandling of Mike Mussina’s contract out of my mouth.  But if ifs and buts were candy and nuts, we’d all have a merry Christmas (ha!  I completed the figure of speech, pudding-proofers).

The Mariners only seemed grudgingly interested in Jones and Sherrill the last couple of year, only grudgingly giving Sherrill a full shot in ‘06 and acting this winter as if finding a full-time spot for Adam Jones was some annoyance like waiting for the cable guy instead of a marvelous opportunity to have a new, star Mariner for the next decade.  Bedard’s a tremendous pitcher, so he will help the team, but the team’s still not really here or there and the most likely result is that they now finish in high single-digits behind the Angels.  The team is respectable, a solid enough franchise that’s willing to spend, but even though he didn’t do anything objectionable in this case, it’s still in the team’s interest to find the replacement for Buzzie’s Other Idiot Son.  Seriously, was anyone in Seattle eagerly waiting Horacio Ramirez to be given another chance at making the rotation for no particular reason?

The reason this trade is great for the Orioles comes down to one name’s name.  Keith Reed.  Generally speaking, before the last two years, when the Orioles sign players, they search for the players they think Keith Reed should have been, but sign the players Keith Reed actually was.  This trade gives the O’s sometime they haven’t had in a long time - one of those 5-tool guys who can actually play baseball.  Sherrill’s not the typical player you see in a rebuilding team, but the O’s always insist on getting some major league player back in a trade and you generally have to just accept it, like when you buy your wife/girlfriend a small gift so she doesn’t complain about you going out with your friends to watch football and drink all weekend.  The shiny object that attracts the O’s eyes is actually a good pitcher to boot, so it’s not the worst thing in the world.  Tillman is the other key pitcher in a trade, with an excellent curve and while his stats at High Desert were kind of weak to the naked eye, everybody’s High Desert pitching stats are ugly.  Hell, I could probably hit 10 homers there and my main exercise lately is carrying two cases of beer at a time.  Mickolio could appear in the bullpen pretty quickly.  Butler’s a few years away, but he’s gotten his control more under, uh…control, and is a big, solidly-built guy.

Nice projection for Bedard, mainly because I think my Dual-Core has a crush on him.  O’s fans shouldn’t worry about Tillman - the projection is simply a reflection of him not being ready in 2008.  All in all, I have to give the Orioles credit - most of them time when they make a move, Orioles fans of a religious bent seek out the Book of Job for enlightenment.

2008 ZiPS Projections
————————————————————————————————-
Player     W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA ERA+
————————————————————————————————-
Bedard   14   5 28 28 179 145   59 14 61 215 2.97 145
Mickolio   4   4 37   0   57   64   30   7 14 30 4.74   98
Sherrill   3   2 71   0   45   39   16   3 17 44 3.20 143  
Tillman   7 12 29 29 138 154   89 21 78 90 5.80   79
————————————————————————————————-

 

2007 ZiPS Projections
——————————————————————————————————————
Player     AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB   BA   OBP   SLG OPS+
——————————————————————————————————————
Jones     482 63 138 22 4 24 74 33 97   9 .286 .342 .498 115
——————————————————————————————————————

 

Dan Szymborski Posted: February 09, 2008 at 04:01 AM | 50 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Moe Greene Posted: February 09, 2008 at 06:33 AM (#2687012)
That's some projection for Jones. I'm surprised it's so bullish.
   2. It's a shame about Athletic Supporter Posted: February 09, 2008 at 06:40 AM (#2687015)
I think Adam Jones may well quickly become one of my favorite players.
   3. Repoz Posted: February 09, 2008 at 06:53 AM (#2687017)
I have a bunch of Keith Reed RC's...

Thanks Dan.
   4. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: February 09, 2008 at 07:49 AM (#2687027)
The Orioles picked Keith Reed ahead of Erik Bedard in 1999. The infamous year of the seven first round picks who turned into... Brian Roberts and a can of tuna.
   5. Dr. Vaux Posted: February 09, 2008 at 08:57 AM (#2687036)
Their 2000 draft might have been the worst ever.
   6. ddp Posted: February 09, 2008 at 09:29 AM (#2687040)
Wasn't the original "Keith Reed" Darnell McDonald? Or should we go back further to Jeffrey Hammonds?

Hey, the 2000 draft yielded the team Brandon Fahey--potential starting SS for the team.

Those Tony Demacio drafts were pretty much all terrible. So were the Syd Thrift rebuilding trades. Who was the best player the O's got from those trades? Fernando Lunar? Chris Richard?

Remember the ad campaigns during those times? "Come See the Kids!"
   7. Repoz Posted: February 09, 2008 at 11:00 AM (#2687048)
Baseball America on Keith Reed...when he was ranked #1 in 2001.

"The Orioles thinks he can be a run producer in the mold of Joe Carter, with a better arm and better speed."

"He's on track for a big league callup in 2002 and a chance for a full-time job in 2003"

Woooops!
   8. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: February 09, 2008 at 11:27 AM (#2687051)
Those Tony Demacio drafts were pretty much all terrible. So were the Syd Thrift rebuilding trades. Who was the best player the O's got from those trades? Fernando Lunar? Chris Richard?
Melvin Mora, actually.

Him or Trenidad Hubbard.
   9. GotowarMissAgnes Posted: February 09, 2008 at 12:41 PM (#2687061)
The O's have certainly had their chances to rebuild in the past and blown it.
   10. Hurdle's Heroes (SuperBaes) Posted: February 09, 2008 at 02:25 PM (#2687079)
It's hard to believe, but the infamous Von Hayes trade is now a quarter-of-a-century past.

It's awesome to recall that Julio Franco was part of that trade.

That's some projection for Jones.

I agree. Does Adam Jones still have rookie eligibility in 2008? With him and Jacoby Ellsbury looking to really make an impact this coming year, I can't think of another year that two such highly regarded CF studs started out. Assuming, of course, that the O's play Jones in center, which I imagine they would without Corey Patterson.
   11. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 09, 2008 at 02:31 PM (#2687082)
Wasn't the original "Keith Reed" Darnell McDonald? Or should we go back further to Jeffrey Hammonds?

I don't fault the Orioles as much for McDonald as for Reed - 2 years made a world of difference. The 1997 team was a really solid team and McDonald was a high school blue-chipper that fell due to signability while Reed is actually older than McDonald.
   12. philly Posted: February 09, 2008 at 02:51 PM (#2687089)
Those Tony Demacio drafts were pretty much all terrible.


1999 - Bedard and Roberts
2000 - nothing
2001 - nothing
2002 - John Maine and Adam Loewen
2003 - Nick Markakis
2004 - nothing

I'd say half were pretty good and half were terrible which is quite a bit different than "all terrible".

I know they had a ton of picks in 1999, but if they had drafted Bedard with one of those picks instead of the 6th rd it would have seemed less wasteful, but no better.

It's not a very good record by any stretch of the imagination, but 5 years later the only assets of value in the organization were Bedard, Roberts and Markakis. The O's had bigger issues than DeMacio's drafts and that's not even getting into the reports that there was FO interference that negatively effected some of the choices at the top of the draft.
   13. Mike Emeigh Posted: February 09, 2008 at 03:07 PM (#2687095)
1999 - Bedard and Roberts
2000 - nothing
2001 - nothing
2002 - John Maine and Adam Loewen
2003 - Nick Markakis
2004 - nothing


The Orioles also got Larry Bigbie out of the 1999 draft, and while he wasn't much he did give them a year and a half of decent enough play before getting hurt. Willie Harris also came in that draft; the Orioles would later trade him for Chris Singleton.

From 2001-2002, James Johnson, Val Majewski, and Hayden Penn are still in the organization, and all could still provide the Orioles with some value. From 2003-2004, the Orioles have Hoey, Bob McCrory, and Jeff Fiorentino. 2005 looks really good, at this point: Snyder's still far away, but Olson, Reimold, and Spoone are all close, and David Hernandez is considered a sleeper by a lot of people.

-- MWE
   14. Len Lansford, Carney Barker Posted: February 09, 2008 at 03:08 PM (#2687096)
But if ifs and buts were candy and nuts, we'd all have a merry Christmas

Dan is actually Riverboat Sam Rutigliano!? Holy cow!
   15. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: February 09, 2008 at 04:13 PM (#2687127)
I don't fault the Orioles as much for McDonald as for Reed - 2 years made a world of difference. The 1997 team was a really solid team and McDonald was a high school blue-chipper that fell due to signability while Reed is actually older than McDonald.

Yeah -- McDonald was very highly rated and nothing like Reed. Also, Hammond was a pretty decent player. He was just injured a lot.
   16. The importance of being Ernest Riles Posted: February 09, 2008 at 04:22 PM (#2687134)
13: Fiorentino was claimed by the Athletics.
   17. Greg K Posted: February 09, 2008 at 04:25 PM (#2687136)
Are Jay Bruce or Colby Rasmus going to get a chance to start out too?
   18. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: February 09, 2008 at 04:28 PM (#2687141)
I can't think of another year that two such highly regarded CF studs started out.
It's not just two. Cameron Maybin will be starting in CF for the Marlins. Lastings Milledge will be starting in CF for the Nationals. Felix Pie has a good shot at the CF job in Chicago. Hunter Pence will be playing his first full season for Houston. It's really an embarrassment of riches at the position.
   19. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: February 09, 2008 at 04:32 PM (#2687146)
Are Jay Bruce or Colby Rasmus going to get a chance to start out too?
I thought Bruce was a right-fielder. Rasmus I forgot about, he should be up by midseason, at least. And Justin Upton is a center fielder who will probably play in the corner because of Chris Young, another excellent young CF who debuted last year.
   20. JC in DC Posted: February 09, 2008 at 04:38 PM (#2687151)
I'm not going to speak to any of the lower-level minor league guys, about whom I know nothing, but I think this is a great deal for Seattle and likely not a great deal for the Os. I'm not sold on Adam Jones being in the class of great young CFers, and I think Bedard is clearly the best player in this haul. Maybe I just suffer from Bedard love after watching him kill NY, but I think he's a dynamite pitcher. I don't have the same impression about Jones in CF, and Sherrill doesn't make up the difference. True, there are three other guys included, but any time I see that, and guys at low levels, I become skeptical of their value. Again, I think this was a very good trade for Seattle, and were I a betting man, I'd bet against Jones and Sherrill adding up to his value.
   21. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: February 09, 2008 at 04:52 PM (#2687161)
Aside from Maybin, Matt, the rest of those guys don't project all that well.
Rasmus and Maybin are both top 10 prospects. 8 and 10 on Goldstein's list, 5 and 13 on Law's. Upton would be #1 if he still had his eligibility. They may not project as All-Stars in 2008, but that was never my point - they're 20 or 21 years old and ready to play in the majors. That's a great, great projection for a 20- or 21-year-old.

And Milledge projects to hit 360/460, by ZiPS. Not bad.
   22. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: February 09, 2008 at 04:56 PM (#2687165)
Milledge seems like one of those guys who'll never achieve his potential.
Maybin, Upton, and Rasmus, too? You predict doom for all the top CF prospects?
   23. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: February 09, 2008 at 04:58 PM (#2687167)
It seems like there are a lot of good young CFs, Cs, and 3B right now. OTOH, there aren't a lot of good young MIs out there, esp. in the minors. Who's the best SS prospect at this point? Brignac? Hu?
   24. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: February 09, 2008 at 04:59 PM (#2687169)
Sorry, you said you like Maybin. I'm guessing I know how you feel about Ellsbury.

You don't like Milledge.

What about Jones, Rasmus, Upton, Pie, and Pence?
   25. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 09, 2008 at 04:59 PM (#2687170)
I'm not going to speak to any of the lower-level minor league guys, about whom I know nothing, but I think this is a great deal for Seattle and likely not a great deal for the Os. I'm not sold on Adam Jones being in the class of great young CFers, and I think Bedard is clearly the best player in this haul. Maybe I just suffer from Bedard love after watching him kill NY, but I think he's a dynamite pitcher. I don't have the same impression about Jones in CF, and Sherrill doesn't make up the difference. True, there are three other guys included, but any time I see that, and guys at low levels, I become skeptical of their value. Again, I think this was a very good trade for Seattle, and were I a betting man, I'd bet against Jones and Sherrill adding up to his value.

Wow! I'm suprised by that. I'd think O's fans would be psyched. Jones is a better player than either Minn or Oak got trading Johan and Haren. If he had a few less at bats last year he'd be a top 5 prospect. He's a very good defensive CF who should put up at least a 100 OPS+ immediately. He doesn't need any projection to be a good player. He has the upside to be a perennial all-star.

On top of that, they get a very good LH RP, who can be spun for another B prospect, and 3 young arms (Tillman's supposed to be real good).

That's a nice haul to me. Bedard's great, but hasn't proved durable, plus wouldn't be an Oriole anyway when they get good.
   26. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: February 09, 2008 at 05:07 PM (#2687175)
Including Jones, the Orioles top prospect list is now something like:


1. Jones
2. Weiters
3. Rowell
4. Tillman
5. Patton
6. Albers
7. Butler
8. Spoone
9. Liz
10. Reimold
11. Olson
12. Arrieta
13. Erbe
14. Mickolio
15. Hoey
16. Beato
17. Snyder
18. D. Hernandez

That's a nice list. Great pitching depth.
   27. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: February 09, 2008 at 05:22 PM (#2687183)
I don't know what to think about Upton. For a #1 prospect, he seems to be taking his sweet time about making an impact. I don't believe Tampa has still decided on a position for him to play. And he might not play center. He has to compete with Baldelli. Baldelli is a better centerfielder, even if he can't hit as well.
Upton might be taking a while, but let's not forget, this season, he'll still be two years younger than say...Jacoby Ellsbury. So he's got plenty of time to make an impact, even if he's been rushed.

You're right that TB has to figure out where's going to play, but I'm pretty sure that you or I or anyone could beat out Rocco for a CF job, because I'm highly doubtful Baldelli is ever going to be in the kind of shape to play even 100 games in CF again.
   28. DCW3 Posted: February 09, 2008 at 05:24 PM (#2687185)
Does Adam Jones still have rookie eligibility in 2008?

Nope. He's got nine at-bats too many.

Are Jay Bruce or Colby Rasmus going to get a chance to start out too?

Last I heard, the Cardinals were planning to give Rasmus a shot at the starting CF job this year.
   29. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: February 09, 2008 at 05:30 PM (#2687187)
Why don't I think he'll be healthy? Because I'm a cynic at heart. And imaging that someone who hasn't been able to play 100 games period for the last three seasons (missing one of those seasons entirely, and playing just 35 games in another) suddenly being able to be healthy enough to play one of the most grueling defensive positions in baseball seems like wishcasting at best and pure fantasy at worst.
   30. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: February 09, 2008 at 05:32 PM (#2687193)
I don't know what to think about Upton. For a #1 prospect, he seems to be taking his sweet time about making an impact. I don't believe Tampa has still decided on a position for him to play. And he might not play center.
Wrong Upton.

Justin Upton
BJ Upton

BJ should be on my list, too, though.
Pie can't hit.
He had a 973 OPS in Iowa last year, ZiPS projects him at 320/430, just a few runs worse than average in CF.
   31. AJMcCringleberry Posted: February 09, 2008 at 06:04 PM (#2687204)
Carlos Gomez?
   32. Boriole Forester Posted: February 09, 2008 at 06:26 PM (#2687211)
If I'm an M's fan, I'd be pissed off that Morrow is going back to the pen...again. The M's refused to include him in the Bedard trade and now won't start him.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/mariners/2004173376_mari09.html?syndication=rss

I think they should have traded Jones, Clement, and Morrow --- all spare parts for an '09 run -- kept Sherrill and Mickolio for an '08 run and Tillman and Butler for the future. But what do I know?
   33. Boriole Forester Posted: February 09, 2008 at 06:27 PM (#2687212)
Oops, that should read '08 run both times.
   34. Moe Greene Posted: February 09, 2008 at 06:46 PM (#2687224)
Are people really making the argument that BJ Upton hasn't made an impact yet?

Dude hit .300/.386/.508 last year with 22 SB's while mostly playing CF. 6th among CF's by Prospectus's RARP last year. That's good enough for me.
   35. Walt Davis Posted: February 09, 2008 at 07:40 PM (#2687264)
I'd bet against Jones and Sherrill adding up to his value.

Which allows me to ramble on about how things are so different in the FA era -- which, really, we should all be used to by now.

How would you structure such a bet? By "value" do you mean performance or performance per dollar? How long a time period do we include for Bedard, who is an FA in a couple years? Much of his future value may not benefit the Ms. Meanwhile the O's have control of Jones for 6 years. There's a pretty good chance that Sherrill will be traded within the next two years, do we include the value of whatever he gets traded for?

It's just damn hard to evaluate trades now. In the old days, since teams controlled the players, it was just a matter of who got the best player.

This trade was ...

Seattle gets:
1) 2 years of Bedard at about $18 M
2) the first crack at extending him at something like 5/$100 OR
whatever they can trade him for next year OR
2 draft picks when he leaves as an FA

Baltimore gets:
1) 3 "free" years of Adam Jones
2) 3 arb years of Adam Jones OR whatever he brings in trade
3) the first crack at buying out Adam Jones's FA years (at who knows what price) OR the 2 FA picks
4) 4 arb years of Sherrill (he's a super-2 it seems) at, oh, $12 M OR whatever he brings in trade
5) the 3 other guys

There's a very good chance that Bedard performs better over the rest of his career than the 5 guys sent to the Os. And even if he doesn't in raw terms, his "pennant impact value" (or whatever) has a good chance to be higher (i.e. he'll have big seasons but they may not add up to as much "value" as the 10+ average or worse seasons those 5 players could produce). But those aren't the only factors that need to be considered.

There are really too many variables here (and enough quality players headed both directions) to say with much confidence who won this trade. Can Seattle extend Bedard? Will Jones blossom? What will the arb and FA markets look like 3-6 years from now? What is Bedard's injury risk? Are the Ms set to contend over the next two years? What about after that? Will the O's contend in Jones's tenure or will he be in the Bedard/Roberts seat 4 years from now?

All that said, I like the trade for the O's. They clearly weren't going to contend these next two years so Bedard has little immediate value to them and it's unlikely he'd have wanted to remain with them even if they wanted him. It's hard to lose badly on a 5 for 1 deal as long as you're getting the 5 and, if that projection for Jones is accurate, he could turn into a very nice player. And his middle name is La Marque.

Whether this is also a good trade for the Ms is debatable. I don't think they're particularly well situated to contend over the next two years. I'm not sure what their system looks like to know whether they're in a good spot to contend 3+ years down the road and so should extend Bedard when the time comes. That is, even without being all that confident in knowing whether they gave up more or less value in this trade, it's hard for me to see how any value gained could be sufficient to make them a good bet for the playoffs.
   36. CraigK Posted: February 09, 2008 at 07:55 PM (#2687279)
Best wishes to Bedard, the new Five-for-One.

Which means that Adam Jones will still be playing in 2033, apparently.
   37. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 09, 2008 at 08:19 PM (#2687291)
Tampa still doesn't like his defense, Moe. He might end up like Samuel, a star without a position. That makes me a little nervous about him.

He had a 136 OPS+ at 22 w/speed. They can always put him in LF and Crawford in CF. Hard to think I guy with his speed can't be an adequate LF.

He looks to be an offensive monster. You can always find a place for great hitters to play. Look at Manny.
   38. andrewberg Posted: February 10, 2008 at 12:24 AM (#2687375)
if I can take any young(ish) cf and have him going forward, my list goes like this:
1. Sizemore
2. Granderson
3. J. Upton
4. Rasmus
5. Bossman junior
6. Ellsbury
7. Maybin
- pie
8. Pence
9. Jones
10. Millege
11. Hambino
12. C. Young
13. C. Gomez
14. Melk-man
G. Hernandez and the other ATL guy have to enter the conversation. Are mccutchen or stubbs worth anything at this point? Also, I'm not counting Bruce or hart as cf, but I'd have them at 2 and 6 respectively.
   39. Walt Davis Posted: February 10, 2008 at 06:34 AM (#2687517)
He looks to be an offensive monster.

Well, maybe. He had something close to a 400 BABIP last year, that's not sustainable. His K-rate going forward probably won't be as bad as 2007 (he didn't K that much in the minors or his earlier ML experience) so he doesn't necessarily need to have a BABIP of 400 to be successful, but I've got my doubts about "monster". I wouldn't be surprised if this was the only season in his career he hit 300. Not that there's anything wrong with, say, 280/360/520.

He does obviously have a lot of potential. With his speed he may mix in enough infield hits with the power to be a monster (at least for a while).

Samuel is always an interesting comp. I remember him as an offensive monster when he was young who fell off a cliff ... but in fact his top OPS+ in those days was a 116 (age 26). That's quite nice for a 2B or a CF, but nothing monstrous. His age 23-25 seasons were 107, 102, and 102. He stole a lot of bases which obviously added value, but he wasn't the force I remember him as.

He still fell off a cliff though -- OPS+ of 93, 86, 94 for 27-29. One more pretty good year as a starter (103 OPS+) then he became a nice bench player.
   40. flournoy Posted: February 11, 2008 at 03:36 PM (#2688076)
5. Bossman junior


I don't understand why he doesn't just go by Bossman Upton now. I would kill for a name like that.
   41. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: February 11, 2008 at 04:01 PM (#2688092)
My ranking would be:
1. Sizemore
2. Granderson
3. J. Upton (although I'm not sure it makes sense to include him if he's never going to play CF)
4. Pence (with the caveat that I don't know much about his defense)
5. Jones
6. Rasmus
7. Bossman junior
8. Ellsbury
9. C. Young
10. Melk-man
11. Milledge (my understanding is that his defense is a plus in a corner, but average in CF. Is that right?)
12. Maybin
13. pie
14. C. Gomez
   42. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: February 11, 2008 at 06:32 PM (#2688216)
Hey, the 2000 draft yielded the team Brandon Fahey--potential starting SS for the team.

Fahey didn't sign in 2000; they drafted him again in 2002.
   43. Dag Nabbit is a cornucopia of errors Posted: February 11, 2008 at 06:47 PM (#2688222)
THT's take on the trade. I began looking at it thinking it was a terrible move for Seattle. When I got done digging . . . well, I still think they'll miss the play-offs, but they'll do better than people expect.

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