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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Saturday, July 16, 2005

Marlins - Acquired Money

Florida Marlins - Reportedly have saved $ 400,000 in return for giving the New York Yankees the “rights” to Al Leiter.

It’s being reported that the Yankees will send $250,000 along with paying the pro-rated minimum,w which makes the Marlins still pay $7.6 million of Leiter’s contract for the season.  However, I’d rather pay $7.6 million without Leiter than pay $8 million and have him.  It’s hard not to see the Marlins as the winners here since Leiter’s probably got as much a chance at being useful for the Yankees this year as Andy Hawkins or Bob Turley do.  On the plus side, Leiter’s future shellings will give the NY papers lots of ammunition for pun-filled headlines to go along with Mayday Darrell (Leiter up!  uh…Leiter is the wound forseen!).

2005 ZiPS Projection - Al Leiter
—————————————————————————————-
Period     W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA
—————————————————————————————-
Actual ‘05   3   7 17 16   80   88   59   9 60 52 6.64
Rest ‘05   3   4 13 13   71   77   46   9 42 45 5.83
—————————————————————————————-
Total ‘05   6 11 30 29 151 165 105 18 102 97 6.26

Dan Szymborski Posted: July 16, 2005 at 08:33 PM | 71 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Hendry's Wad of Cash (UCCF) Posted: July 16, 2005 at 08:57 PM (#1477210)
I'm no expert, but I think that's more walks than you'd like to see in 151 innings.
   2. danup Posted: July 16, 2005 at 08:59 PM (#1477212)
Hey, is Brien Taylor ready yet?
   3. VegasRobb Posted: July 16, 2005 at 09:07 PM (#1477217)
At least he didn't cost them a prospect.
   4. Sam M. Posted: July 16, 2005 at 09:08 PM (#1477218)
Al Leiter is more done than . . . .

this Red.

this guy's reign.

this, this, and this empire.

this fad.

this species, and

this era.

I mean, he's really done.
   5. 1k5v3L Posted: July 16, 2005 at 09:10 PM (#1477223)
What's wrong with Adam Dunn?!
   6. Ozzie's gay friend Posted: July 16, 2005 at 09:11 PM (#1477224)
Personally I'd rather have May.

Altought Leiter seems like he can handle the pressure of New York better, at least May gives you innings, Leiter shouldn't average more than 4 innings a start in the AL.
   7. Sam M. Posted: July 16, 2005 at 09:17 PM (#1477227)
What's wrong with Adam Dunn?!

It is a sign of a refined, high-quality sense of humor that one does NOT get a dumb pun. I, for one, am impressed, levski. ;-)
   8. 1k5v3L Posted: July 16, 2005 at 09:19 PM (#1477228)
Spank ya later, Allie G. Leiter?!
   9. Paul M Hates Krispy Kreme Posted: July 16, 2005 at 10:30 PM (#1477277)
It's good thing I saw this news before breakfast, becuase I would have probably gotten physically ill otherwise.
   10. 1k5v3L Posted: July 16, 2005 at 10:35 PM (#1477282)
So Sam, that was a pun. You didn't want to go with this guy, since he's really done?
   11. Gromit45 Posted: July 16, 2005 at 10:59 PM (#1477301)
Posted by <u>Ed Whitson</u>

Hey, I'm not done!
(or Dunn or Donne)
   12. Hendry's Wad of Cash (UCCF) Posted: July 16, 2005 at 11:04 PM (#1477306)
Trading Al Leiter for Don Money would have been a definite upgrade.
   13. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: July 16, 2005 at 11:24 PM (#1477324)
Hmm... it might be time for levski to borrow Jeter's #1 Fan's nickname for a while.
   14. 1k5v3L Posted: July 16, 2005 at 11:25 PM (#1477327)
Which is?
   15. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: July 16, 2005 at 11:47 PM (#1477340)
The Joke Assassin
   16. 1k5v3L Posted: July 16, 2005 at 11:50 PM (#1477345)
Oh, OK. I thought he changed it to Al Leiter's #1 Fan.
   17. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: July 16, 2005 at 11:54 PM (#1477351)
He might have. I don't remember seeing him around lately.
   18. Jose Clutch (Replacement Level Poster) Posted: July 16, 2005 at 11:56 PM (#1477354)
Ha Ha Ha.

Silly Yankees. Below replacement level pitchers are for Devil Rays.
   19. 1k5v3L Posted: July 17, 2005 at 12:05 AM (#1477367)
Who else thinks Leiter will walk 7 and give up 2 homers in 2 1/3 innings tomorrow?
   20. rLr Is King Of The Romans And Above Grammar Posted: July 17, 2005 at 12:08 AM (#1477377)
Trading Al Leiter for Don Money would have been a definite upgrade.

I'm not entirely certain Al Leiter is capable of out-pitching Eddie Money nowadays.
   21. Red Menace Posted: July 17, 2005 at 12:29 AM (#1477416)
I'm not entirely certain Al Leiter is capable of out-pitching Eddie Money nowadays.

Take me home tonight!
I don't want to let you go til you see the light! er... Leiter!
   22. RMc's desperate, often sordid world Posted: July 17, 2005 at 12:33 AM (#1477422)
Is Al's pitching motion still good?
In other words, is Leiter fluid...?
   23. H. Vaughn Posted: July 17, 2005 at 12:43 AM (#1477444)
I'm not entirely certain Al Leiter is capable of out-pitching Eddie Money nowadays.

Al is so money and doesn't he know it.

Well, I said tell me Marlins, what's wrong with you?
From this day on our romance is through
I said, tell me Marlins, face to face
How could another lefty take my place?
They said,

Money, honey.
   24. Cowboy Popup Posted: July 17, 2005 at 12:44 AM (#1477448)
"Oh, OK. I thought he changed it to Al Leiter's #1 Fan."

I hate Al Leiter, which makes him the logical Yankee acquisition I suppose. I was hoping against hope it would be Chacon, as I don't despise him.
   25. 1k5v3L Posted: July 17, 2005 at 12:51 AM (#1477463)
RJ, Womack, Leiter... won't someone think about J1F?!
   26. Johnny Tuttle Posted: July 17, 2005 at 12:53 AM (#1477467)
All kidding aside, giving a huge star like this another chance isn't the worst idea when you need to hit on several good ideas now, greedy or otherwise. Sure, bring him back to the Yankees to see how he does. At this cost, they can cut him after three starts if they wanted to, and it wouldn't hurt at all for that team.

************

The Marlins are the laughingstocks here--sure, they weasled out of some of the burden, but that's a helluva big buy out for a world class
s-cum bucket, cheap ass of an owner to have to pay. They never should have paid him that in the beginning.
   27. Cowboy Popup Posted: July 17, 2005 at 12:55 AM (#1477471)
"RJ, Womack, Leiter..."

I think the list is up to 12 or 13, although I'm starting to come around on Ruben Sierra.
   28. Gotham Dave Posted: July 17, 2005 at 01:03 AM (#1477492)
5.83 projected ERA? For free? As a Yankee fan, I'LL TAKE IT! That's how bad things are.

And what is this fascination with Brien Taylor that just never ceases? He was drafted fourteen years ago! Somehow I don't think people are going to be making Colt Griffin cracks 10 years from now - especially considering they don't even make them now.

The drafting/signing of Taylor crippled the Yankees so much that they've won four world championships since then. So why Brien Taylor? For crying out loud, at least move on to Drew Henson.
   29. Hendry's Wad of Cash (UCCF) Posted: July 17, 2005 at 01:12 AM (#1477515)
Did you just call Al Leiter a huge star?
   30. TVerik, the gum-snappin' hairdresser Posted: July 17, 2005 at 01:21 AM (#1477556)
I don't know about huge star, but certainly legitimate All-Star level at one point. He hasn't had an ERA+ under 100 since 1997, which includes a 133 last year.

Unlike Dan and some others, I see nothing but upside.

How much is Kevin Brown making per start? Leiter for $400k brings fairly low expectations for me.

And if, for some strange reason, he pitches well, the Yankees will have another team paying someone to perform instead of the other way around.
   31. Johnny Tuttle Posted: July 17, 2005 at 01:30 AM (#1477593)
Yes, I did call Leiter a huge star. He's always seemed like he could be better, but he has been the best pitcher on a WS winning team. This is a guy worth giving a handful of starts to see whether the salad fork is as entrenched as Alomar's.

As long as the Yanks have this on a short short leash, it's a small price to pay for the chance of a revival. Similar to Boone on the Twins.

If they run him out for the rest of the year based on his celebrity and past accomplishments alone, then it's stupid.
   32. KJOK Posted: July 17, 2005 at 01:35 AM (#1477611)
5.83 projected ERA? For free? As a Yankee fan, I'LL TAKE IT! That's how bad things are.

I suppose when the other option is more Redding, giving Leiter a chance isn't so bad...
   33. Johnny Tuttle Posted: July 17, 2005 at 01:39 AM (#1477622)
Redding -- will he make it to AAA after being DFA'd today?
   34. greenback calls it soccer Posted: July 17, 2005 at 01:44 AM (#1477642)
So why Brien Taylor? For crying out loud, at least move on to Drew Henson.

Maybe because Henson, at least nominally, was a 3B and Taylor was a pitcher?

Shouldn't the Yankees be trolling for veteran minor leaguers who have "outs" on their minor league deals? At least you don't have to worry about how to clean up the mess around the mound when the pitcher's arm falls off.
   35. Hendry's Wad of Cash (UCCF) Posted: July 17, 2005 at 01:52 AM (#1477668)
Yes, I did call Leiter a huge star... he has been the best pitcher on a WS winning team.

Technically, this applies to Christy Mathweson too. And I'd venture to guess that the Yankees would get more use out of his desiccated corpse than they'll get out of the huge star formerly known as Al Leiter.

David Wells couldn't get the fork out of Leiter if Wells was dying of hunger and surrounded by cheesecake.
   36. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: July 17, 2005 at 01:52 AM (#1477669)
Dear George Steinbrenner,

Regardless of how Leiter pitches, please be aware that his insights into how to properly manage a baseball franchise will be an incredible asset to the Yankees. Honestly, there is no means of effectively conveying the true value of Al Leiter's, senator emeritus, contribution to the decision-making of the front office.

The Yankees' biggest problem isn't overpaid veterans or a sparse farm system, it's that there is a severe shortage of strong opinions within all levels the organization. Hopefully, Leiter's guidance will prove as valuable to the Yankees as it was to the Mets. Please take into consideration all of his suggestions and publicly endorse his ability to speak for you in regards to all matters.

Sincerely,

Red Sox Nation
   37. Johnny Tuttle Posted: July 17, 2005 at 01:56 AM (#1477674)
Ok, so UCCF seems to have an opinion about this deal, but why is he being so coy about it?
   38. Kurt Posted: July 17, 2005 at 02:21 AM (#1477710)
Yes, I did call Leiter a huge star... he has been the best pitcher on a WS winning team.

The closest that statement is to being true is the Mets only lost 4-1 to the Yankees, and thus were a lot closer to winning than Leiter was to being better than Brown or Fernandez (or Guzman or Hentgen or Ward).
   39. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: July 17, 2005 at 02:43 AM (#1477734)
I hear you, Kurt, but since there are 30 best pitchers on a team every year but only one WS winner, I'd call 1997 closer.
   40. Chris in Wicker Park Posted: July 17, 2005 at 03:12 AM (#1477746)
Well, the Senator may be done (or Dunn or Donne), but at least Yankee fans will be getting better pre-game music.

Rosalita > Cotton Eyed Joe.
   41. Matt Garza smells it deep (Mr. Tapeworm) Posted: July 17, 2005 at 03:23 AM (#1477749)
Shouldn't the Yankees be trolling for veteran minor leaguers who have "outs" on their minor league deals?

They should be trolling for their own minor leaguers. I sort of understand not giving Sean Henn another chance, but wouldn't Alex Graman, with a 3.28 ERA and 95/33 K/BB ratio in AAA, be a better bet to outperform Leiter's 5.83 ZIPs projection. Hell, he might be a better bet to outperform Brown, Pavano and Wright.
   42. Matt Garza smells it deep (Mr. Tapeworm) Posted: July 17, 2005 at 03:24 AM (#1477750)
Cotton Eyed Joe is the greatest song of all time, and I have the lobotomy to prove it.
   43. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: July 17, 2005 at 02:05 PM (#1477982)
There's nothing wrong with "Cotton-Eyed Joe"...when Don Reno's doing it.
   44. There are no words... (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: July 17, 2005 at 03:18 PM (#1478050)
Met Fan's Perspective:

Now watch...

Leiter goes 10-3 down the stretch and wins 2 games in the World Series.
   45. Jeremy B. Posted: July 17, 2005 at 03:43 PM (#1478072)
After seeing that headline, I was half-expecting to see a projection of how the money would perform the rest of the way. But then I guess we'd have someone telling us to stop watching all those baseball games and stick our noses in a spreadsheet....
   46. Artie Ziff Posted: July 17, 2005 at 06:59 PM (#1478357)
Pretty smart New York move here. A veteran lefty for basically free by their salary standards. Low risk, possible high payoff.
   47. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: July 17, 2005 at 08:10 PM (#1478507)
I think this is a good deal for the Yankees. Al Leiter was a just a notch below all-star level while with the Mets for the last few years. He has only struggled for half a season, so there is definately a chance for rebound. Though he certainly won't reach the 2002-2004 levels again, he is probably useful for the Yankees. I'd pencil him in for about a 5.50 era for the rest of the year, which though poor is certainly an improvement on Tim Redding's 9+ era.
   48. Dan Szymborski Posted: July 17, 2005 at 09:52 PM (#1478648)
After seeing that headline, I was half-expecting to see a projection of how the money would perform the rest of the way.

Shoot, I wish I had thought of that.
   49. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: July 17, 2005 at 11:07 PM (#1478830)
So far, the Yankees appear to be winning this deal.
   50. Kurt Posted: July 17, 2005 at 11:57 PM (#1478978)
So far, the Yankees appear to be winning this deal.

I think they've already won it. Even one start like this, against the Red Sox, is probably worth 400k to them.
   51. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: July 18, 2005 at 12:10 AM (#1479009)
6.3IP, 1ER, 3BB, 7K. <sarcasim>Yeah, I guess he is done.</sarcasim>
   52. Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein Posted: July 18, 2005 at 12:23 AM (#1479042)
Reading this thread after Leiter shut 'em down is killing me.

I think this is a good deal for the Yankees. Al Leiter was a just a notch below all-star level while with the Mets for the last few years.

Notch below all-star pitchers do not average less than 6IP/start and 4.5BB/9IP over the past two full seasons.

Can someone explain Leiter's last two seasons?
In '03 he let up 279 baserunners in 180IP. His HR rate was good (15), but not amazing.
   53. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: July 18, 2005 at 12:59 AM (#1479141)
Even one start like this, against the Red Sox, is probably worth 400k to them.

Just for pespective on this, Mike Mussina and Randy Johnson are being paid more than $400,000 per start. Anyway, now that the game is over, Leiter has his first win and the Yankees are just half a game out. That is just awesome.
   54. rLr Is King Of The Romans And Above Grammar Posted: July 18, 2005 at 01:06 AM (#1479152)
Al Leiter is fully justified.
   55. Urban Faber Posted: July 18, 2005 at 01:07 AM (#1479153)
For one night at least, Al Leiter was money.
   56. Cowboy Popup Posted: July 18, 2005 at 01:07 AM (#1479155)
"Even one start like this, against the Red Sox, is probably worth 400k to them."

I agree.

"Anyway, now that the game is over, Leiter has his first win and the Yankees are just half a game out. That is just awesome."

I agree.

"Al Leiter is fully justified."

I agree.
   57. Eli Hungerford: Cityboy Crypto-Elitist for hire Posted: July 18, 2005 at 02:59 AM (#1479259)
</sarcasim>

For a guy with such high standardized test scores, you sure are a lousy speller.
   58. Derrick Jensen Posted: July 18, 2005 at 03:23 AM (#1479277)
With all the calculations people do of win shares, I was thinking today about Leiter and his 400K and his victory today. How much do teams pay on average per victory by a starting pitcher (broken down by his win shares)?
   59. Derrick Jensen Posted: July 18, 2005 at 03:24 AM (#1479280)
I feel like I was really unclear with my question. Another way to say it is: if the Yankees got their money's worth just today with Leiter's win at 400K, what would have been the break-even point? Would it have been worth it to them at 800K? 1.2 mil? 300 million? I think the latter is probably a tad high, but you get the point.
   60. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: July 18, 2005 at 04:25 AM (#1479305)
if the Yankees got their money's worth just today with Leiter's win at 400K, what would have been the break-even point?

Well, tghe Yankees scored 5 runs and there bullpen gave up 2 in 2 2/3 innings. That means that they would need a performence of 6 1/3 innings and 2 runs or less allowed. A starter that would give that performence every start would get paid around $17 million for 34 starts coming out to $500,000 per start. So, the answer to your question is $500,000.
   61. There are no words... (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: July 18, 2005 at 01:31 PM (#1479647)
Now watch...

Leiter goes 10-3 down the stretch and wins 2 games in the World Series.



Of all the times to maybe not be wrong...
   62. Sam M. Posted: July 18, 2005 at 01:46 PM (#1479671)
6.3IP, 1ER, 3BB, 7K. <sarcasim>Yeah, I guess he is done.</sarcasim>

I think they've already won it. Even one start like this, against the Red Sox, is probably worth 400k to them.


I hate Al Leiter even more than I did two days ago. Credit where it's due: Leiter was great last night. Pitched better than he has in at least two years. Forget the stats -- he was sharper in the strike zone, more aggressive with hitters. Vintage, to say the least.

Nevertheless. Before we say they've "already won" the deal, and that he's been worth the $400K, let's remember that he's going to pitch again. If they released him today, then I might say, sure, getting that start was probably worth that much money. But if he pitches from now on like he did for the Marlins, he's going to be a net negative. Let's wait and see. For my money, last night was all about adrenaline. It happens all the time; a player gets released, then has a great game or series when picked up trying to prove something.

In fact, I said on another thread about Leiter that, bad as I think he is, he might just give the Yankees 2-3 good starts before the league figures him out. Bully for him, and them, that he gave them one last night. By the end of the season, it'll be painful for Yankee fans to watch.
   63. salajander Posted: July 18, 2005 at 03:05 PM (#1479844)
By the end of the season, it'll be painful for Yankee fans to watch.

I don't see how it could be more painful to watch than Redding and May.
   64. Kurt Posted: July 18, 2005 at 03:21 PM (#1479875)
But if he pitches from now on like he did for the Marlins, he's going to be a net negative.

You're assuming that the Yankees have demonstrated some skill to locate and use free replacement-level pitchers. He may be a net negative compared to other teams' 5th starters, but it's hard to do worse than Redding and May, as salajander mentioned.

Also, it's not like the Yankees have shown a slow hook with these guys. If the league figures him out after 2-3 starts, Yankee fans will be watching him do color commentary on Fox broadcasts along with everybody else, and experiencing varying degrees of pain.
   65. Sam M. Posted: July 18, 2005 at 03:28 PM (#1479898)
He may be a net negative compared to other teams' 5th starters, but it's hard to do worse than Redding and May, as salajander mentioned.

True enough, but the Yankees need to get significantly better work from Leiter (or whomever) in that slot. If all their $400K bought them was older crap, that's not a good investment.

That is, to say a pitcher is not worse than Redding or May has to be the ultimate in damning with faint praise.
   66. There are no words... (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: July 18, 2005 at 03:29 PM (#1479901)
Also, it's not like the Yankees have shown a slow hook with these guys. If the league figures him out after 2-3 starts, Yankee fans will be watching him do color commentary on Fox broadcasts along with everybody else, and experiencing varying degrees of pain.

You say this like it's a good thing for the Yankees.

If he does post those 2-3 good starts SamM mentioned, and then is jettisoned, aren't the Yankees back to square 1?

Or are you assuming a full return to health and effectiveness by Kevin Brown & Carl Pavano -- or possibly Jaret Wright. If you are, that's a pretty huge stretch.
   67. Kurt Posted: July 18, 2005 at 03:35 PM (#1479910)
But if he pitches from now on like he did for the Marlins, he's going to be a net negative.

You're assuming that the Yankees have demonstrated some skill to locate and use free replacement-level pitchers. He may be a net negative compared to other teams' 5th starters, but it's hard to do worse than Redding and May, as salajander mentioned.

Also, it's not like the Yankees have shown a slow hook with these guys. If the league figures him out after 2-3 starts, Yankee fans will be watching him do color commentary on Fox broadcasts along with everybody else, and experiencing varying degrees of pain.
   68. Kurt Posted: July 18, 2005 at 04:04 PM (#1479993)
But if he pitches from now on like he did for the Marlins, he's going to be a net negative.

You're assuming that the Yankees have demonstrated some skill to locate and use free replacement-level pitchers. He may be a net negative compared to other teams' 5th starters, but it's hard to do worse than Redding and May, as salajander mentioned.

Also, it's not like the Yankees have shown a slow hook with these guys. If the league figures him out after 2-3 starts, Yankee fans will be watching him do color commentary on Fox broadcasts along with everybody else, and experiencing varying degrees of pain.
   69. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: July 18, 2005 at 04:30 PM (#1480072)
how in the #### did al leiter shut down the red sox
   70. Pat Rapper's Delight Posted: July 18, 2005 at 05:39 PM (#1480242)
By the end of the season, it'll be painful for Yankee fans to watch.
Yeah, until the last game of the season with the Red Sox leading the Yankees by 1/2 game. Leiter and his 6.92 ERA will be pressed into an emergency start and he'll throw 8-1/3 innings allowing 2 scratch singles and 1 walk while fanning 12.
   71. Sam M. Posted: July 18, 2005 at 05:43 PM (#1480257)
Yeah, until the last game of the season

No, Leiter's already had his Season-ending Moment of Glory™. 1999, Mets and Reds tied for the wild card. Leiter pitches a complete game two-hitter to send the Mets into the post-season for the first time in 11 years.

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