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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Friday, July 10, 2009

Mets - “Acquired” Francoeur

New York Mets - Acquired OF Delta Airlines­® Presents Jeff Francoeur from the Atlanta Braves for OF Ryan Church.

I like trades that are easy to dissect.

Ryan Church is a better baseball player than Jeff Francoeur.  Ryan Church is overwhelmingly likely to always be a better player than Jeff Francoeur.  I am amazed that Dayton Moore only did the second-dumbest thing today.

Ryan Church upgrades the Braves outfield.  Ryan Church increases the chances that the Braves will win the NL East in any season that the team plays Ryan Church at the expense of Jeff Francoeur.

Jeff Francoeur downgrades the Mets outfield.  Jeff Francoeur increases the chance that the Mets will not win the NL East in any season that the team plays Jeff Francoeur at the expense of Ryan Church.  Or possibly a galvanized metal garbage can.  When was the last time your garbage can swung at a slider halfway to Peoria?  Francoeur actually might be good enough to play for the Peoria Chiefs.

If you made a trade this one-sided with your little brother as a child, you parents would instantly negate the trade and send you to your room.  It’s like giving your little brother an empty can of Fanta for his Boba Fett.  Now, Ryan Church isn’t as awesome as Boba Fett, but I don’t have to pay a million dollars to an empty can of Fanta either.  Ryan Church is not a star, but I wouldn’t trade minor-league shortstop David Church for Francoeur either and he’s a player I just made up.

FRANK WREN GO TO YOUR ROOM AND DONT LET ME CATCH YOU PLAYING HALO!


2009 ZIPS Projection - Jeff Francoeur
——————————————————————————————————————
          AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI   BB   SO SB   BA OBP SLG
——————————————————————————————————————
Year-to-Date   304   32   76 12   2   5   35   12   46   5 .250 .282 .352
Rest-of-Year   286   34   74 15   1   7   36   16   51   2 .259 .305 .390
——————————————————————————————————————
Total       590   66 150 27   3 12   71   28   97   7 .255 .293 .370

Year-to-date totals include minor-league translations, if applicable.

 


2009 ZIPS Projection - Ryan Church
——————————————————————————————————————
          AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI   BB   SO SB   BA OBP SLG
——————————————————————————————————————
Year-to-Date   232   52   65 16   0   2   22   17   36   6 .280 .332 .375
Rest-of-Year   190   32   52 12   0   6   27   20   43   3 .273 .347 .439
——————————————————————————————————————
Total       422   84 117 28   0   8   49   37   79   9 .277 .339 .404

Year-to-date totals include minor-league translations, if applicable.

  image

Dan Szymborski Posted: July 10, 2009 at 10:25 PM | 149 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   101. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: July 11, 2009 at 11:26 PM (#3250478)
If Francoeur turns around in NY Terry Pendleton must be fired. It's bad enough with Jaramillo resurrecting Andruw. If the Mets salvage anything from The Outmaker then Pendleton has to answer for his inability to work with either hitter.
   102. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: July 11, 2009 at 11:43 PM (#3250541)
Well, Jones wasn't horrible with the Braves. He wasn't truly bad until he played for the Dodgers.
   103. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: July 12, 2009 at 12:03 AM (#3250577)
No, he cratered his last year in Atlanta. Then he cratered on top of his crater his first year in LA. Still, if the Mets turn Gorgorath Devourer of Outs into a useful ML player on top of Andruw's resurgence in Texas some blame has to filter down to Pendleton.
   104. Ray (RDP) Posted: July 12, 2009 at 12:22 AM (#3250619)
It's fun to pile on the Mets and their fans for some people so they want to make like this trade is another Black Friday. It isn't. Church just isn't a big enough loss to warrant so much angst and the only way this deal is a problem is if Frenchy is on the team in 2010. It's not Kazmir-Zambrano II.


True, but you're still looking at it from the wrong end: Church is not Kazmir, but Frenchy is a black hole who has killed his team for the past couple of years. The move won't have the longterm negative impact that the Kazmir deal did, but it's a bad move that shouldn't be excused.

Predictably, the WFAN hosts in NY last night (Steve Somers and Tony Page) thought the move was a good one. Most common justifications? "Something had to be done to shake up this team." "Francoeur has tremendous upside if he can figure things out." "Church wasn't happy here." "The manager didn't get along with Church."

Most callers thought the move was good, some saw the light. One caller was particularly dense, and comically so. He said "I like the move, but since it's the Braves I feel like they know something we don't. I know his OBP is incredibly bad, but there must be something else I'm missing. I know he swings at pitches 5 feet off the plate, but there must be something else I'm missing." I mean, what else has to be "missing" once you list those things? That's not enough?
   105. BarrettsHiddenBall Posted: July 12, 2009 at 12:36 AM (#3250638)
the WFAN hosts in NY last night (Steve Somers and Tony Page) thought the move was a good one.
...
Most callers thought the move was good


Sorry to quote you on a tangent, but this is my point in [103]. Whether this is a bad move or a horrible move in terms of performance seems irrelevant; if Francouer gets the average Mets fan slightly more excited about the team, and potentially even down to the ballpark over the next two months, the team may consider it a successful deal.
   106.  Hey Gurl Posted: July 12, 2009 at 12:43 AM (#3250645)
The lineup the Mets have for today's game have combined for 29 HR's on the season. That's kind of amazing.
   107. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: July 12, 2009 at 12:54 AM (#3250657)
It's not shocking that the average talk-radio Mets fan thinks they won this deal. Ryan Church is a useful half of a platoon who can give stretches of hot at bats. He's a left handed Matt Diaz. He has no reputation to outstretch his actual skill set and he struggled the first half of this season. Francoeur has been an every day OF for four years, he was on the cover of SI and drove in 100 runs. His reputation is bigger than his actual talent. Common fans of any team will think he's a better player than Church, and he's five years younger to boot. This same phenomena is on display on the AJC commenter boards. Average Braves fans are *livid* about this deal.
   108. Ray (RDP) Posted: July 12, 2009 at 01:23 AM (#3250678)
Sorry to quote you on a tangent, but this is my point in [103]. Whether this is a bad move or a horrible move in terms of performance seems irrelevant; if Francouer gets the average Mets fan slightly more excited about the team, and potentially even down to the ballpark over the next two months, the team may consider it a successful deal.


The problem is that any speculative gain in "excitement" is washed away by the fact that Francoeur sucks and is likely to hurt the team on the field. Making the team worse doesn't usually result in an increase in attendance.
   109. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: July 12, 2009 at 01:52 AM (#3250711)
I think it's possible that there's a practical floor for attendance for the Mets, though. Even in Frenchy continues to suck asscock (which he almost certainly will), and the Mets lose that extra two games or whatever, I don't think that's going to have a deleterious effect above and beyond any notional excitement created by getting a younger guy with "upside".

The fact of the matter is, I think it was dumb for the Mets to give up anything for a player as unreservedly awful as Jeff Francoeur. But on a practical level, with their second- and third-best position players out, and their best pitcher pitching like a bad one, the Mets aren't sacrificing anything by taking a flyer. If he's still playing next year, that's a problem -- but it's a problem to be dealt with next year.
   110. Ray (RDP) Posted: July 12, 2009 at 02:05 AM (#3250723)
If he's still playing next year, that's a problem -- but it's a problem to be dealt with next year.


Why do people seem to be disregarding the notion that Francoeur is a problem this year?

He is a problem to be dealt with this year.
   111. Coot Veal and Cot Deal taste like Old Bay Posted: July 12, 2009 at 02:12 AM (#3250731)
He is a problem to be dealt with this year.


but... but...

he was 2 for 4 with 2 RBIs in his Metsie debut...
   112. Ray (RDP) Posted: July 12, 2009 at 02:14 AM (#3250732)
He is a problem to be dealt with this year.

but... but...

he was 2 for 4 with 2 RBIs in his Metsie debut...


Excellent. Then the Mets can trade him while his value is high. Maybe they could get someone like Ryan Church from the Braves for him. That would be an immediate upgrade.
   113. JPWF13 Posted: July 12, 2009 at 02:15 AM (#3250733)
If Francoeur turns around in NY Terry Pendleton must be fired. It's bad enough with Jaramillo resurrecting Andruw. If the Mets salvage anything from The Outmaker then Pendleton has to answer for his inability to work with either hitter.


welll it's all relative
Andruw once upon a time was a good offensive player.

Frenchy, aside from his fluke first 50 games, merely achieved mediocrity once....
   114. Tripon Posted: July 12, 2009 at 02:21 AM (#3250738)


Excellent. Then the Mets can trade him while his value is high. Maybe they could get someone like Ryan Church from the Braves for him. That would be an immediate upgrade.


They could of had Nyjer Morgan if they were proactive!
   115. Dr Love Posted: July 12, 2009 at 02:25 AM (#3250746)
he was 2 for 4 with 2 RBIs in his Metsie debut...


Yeah and this year he hit a HR on opening night then went on to have an even worse season than last year. So there's lots to look forward to.
   116. Coot Veal and Cot Deal taste like Old Bay Posted: July 12, 2009 at 02:30 AM (#3250748)
Yeah and this year he hit a HR on opening night then went on to have an even worse season than last year. So there's lots to look forward to.

dunno that it came through, but in no way was [114] intended as a serious comment...

sometimes I wonder if guys like Minaya are just your typical sports radio/sports bar patron - neither idiot nor genius - who happens to land a job with a Major League franchise, and then work his way well past any level of competency.
   117. Dr Love Posted: July 12, 2009 at 02:36 AM (#3250752)
dunno that it came through, but in no way was [114] intended as a serious comment...


I know. I'm just saying, Frenchy is really good at teasing. And tonight's game is probably good for a laughable article somewhere.
   118. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: July 12, 2009 at 02:49 AM (#3250757)
Why do people seem to be disregarding the notion that Francoeur is a problem this year?

Because the Mets aren't going to win anything this year.
   119. villageidiom Posted: July 12, 2009 at 03:25 AM (#3250773)
I think Delta is behind the trade. They realized that they don't need the hype in Atlanta, as it's damn near impossible not to fly Delta in or out of there. They need Francoeur's sharp marketing skills in NYC.
   120.  Hey Gurl Posted: July 12, 2009 at 03:28 AM (#3250774)
Delta is the official airline for the Atlanta Braves, New York Mets, and New York Yankees. I wonder if his contract stipulated he had to play for one of those teams.
   121. Ron Johnson Posted: July 12, 2009 at 11:31 AM (#3250925)
Who's an example of a guy like Francoeur who actually did turn it around, though?


I'd argue for Bill Robinson. Right down to the plate discipline.
   122. calhounite Posted: July 12, 2009 at 01:11 PM (#3250936)
French COULD have a good second half.

Which would be a disaster for the Mets.

Not only because they'd then HAVE to tender the 3 mil or whatever for one of the demonstrably worst players in the league in order to prop up the myth that said 2nd half was a product of doing their job...

but because now they've validated their mode of doing their job - stupid, lazy WAG INSTEAD of doing their job.

A bear COULD take a dump in an outhouse.

Larussa wouldn't have to leave the comfort of his couch to RIGHT LEFT the turd coming out of the bear's ass.

But don't think Larussa would trade for the bear on the COULD.
   123. Freeballin' (Tales of Met Power) Posted: July 13, 2009 at 12:54 AM (#3251423)
Who's an example of a guy like Francoeur who actually did turn it around, though?



I'd argue for Bill Robinson. Right down to the plate discipline.


The Dangerous Kevin Bass?
   124. neonwattagelimit Posted: July 13, 2009 at 05:40 PM (#3251929)
It's not Kazmir-Zambrano II.


It's not a franchise killer or appallingly, horrifically stupid, no. But it's really, really, really, really dumb. It's in keeping with a lot of other foolish, but not huge enough to lose your mind over, moves that Omar has made (or, failed to make). To wit:

-Signing Luis Castillo to a four-year contract.
-Expecting that Endy Chavez and Fernando Tatis will stop hitting like Endy Chavez and Fernando Tatis.
-Failing to pick up a decent COF last off-season, when the market was flooded with them.
-Taking Oliver Perez over Derek Lowe when the latter was clearly the kind of pitcher we needed.
-Trading Lastings Milledge for two players we didn't really need.
-Related to the above, thinking that Brian Schneider is a full-time major league catcher.
-Trading Ramon Castro because Omir Santos hit a few home runs one month and Jerry Manuel likes him.
-Placing SO much faith in Daniel Murphy.
-The unprofessional manner in which they fired Willie Randolph.

None of these things, by themselves, are the kinds of things that doom a baseball team. But, taken together, you get the 2009 Mets. You get two historic collapses. You get an organization that, by all appearances, just doesn't get it, doesn't understand what it takes to put together a truly competitive team every year, even though they clearly have the core talent to do so. That's what's so frustrating about the Mets. They're not the Royals, who couldn't pick a major-league hitter out of a lineup of A-ballers. They're not the Astros, who seem perpetually locked in a struggle to maybe someday attain 85 victories. They show flashes of greatness, but they have Luis Castillo for two more years and bat Jeremy Reed in the middle of the order. They come close, but fall short because they screw up the little things like building a bullpen, or a bench, or evaluating performance variation.

This is the year that it's all going horribly, horribly wrong, and though few, if any, teams could come back from the injuries the Mets have suffered, this team has nothing to fall back on. You can't blame chance anymore. You can't go out and grab a big-name pitcher or two and gloss it all over. The holes in this organization run too deep. Yes, this trade is not, in itself, significantly dumber than any number of other dumb trades. But for Mets fans, it's the last straw.
   125. PreservedFish Posted: July 13, 2009 at 05:59 PM (#3251943)
Who's an example of a guy like Francoeur who actually did turn it around, though?


Isn't Jose Reyes an obvious answer? Hot-shot prospect with good but not great numbers, plate discipline issues, scalding start followed by sub-700 OPSes. In 2005 Rob Neyer said that Jose Reyes was "one of the very worst everyday players in the majors."

Not that I think F-Core can replicate Reyes' success. Sammy Sosa is another name that pops out, but with both he and Reyes you are talking about the dark days being around age 22, not age 25.
   126. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: July 13, 2009 at 06:16 PM (#3251964)
Sosa and Reyes both took their lumps, but as you note, they were in their early 20s when they did it, and neither had quite the sustained period of suckitude that Frenchy has going -- he's looking at nearly a thousand PAs without even a whiff of hope in sight. Reyes is only a year older than Francoeur right now. Sosa, when he was 25, batted .300 and slugged .545. It's not that he's been bad, really, it's how long he's been bad for, and at what point in his career. He's regressing.
   127. Raskolnikov Posted: July 13, 2009 at 06:22 PM (#3251972)
It took me all of 2 games with Francoeur in a Mets uniform to realize - with his approach, he will never BB more than 50 times per 600 PAs. Unpossible.
   128. JPWF13 Posted: July 13, 2009 at 06:26 PM (#3251979)
Isn't Jose Reyes an obvious answer?


No.

Reyes' k/bb was 71/18 in 435 lo A PAs, he was also 18
Francoeur's k/bb was 34/15 in 167 rookie league PAs at age 18, his walk rate was much higher than Reyes, and so was his K rate - having seen both players since I suspect it was more a matter of Frenchy swinging and missing more often and going to deeper counts

Reyes' k/bb was 77/46 in 622 PAS split between A+ and AA, he was 19, notice how his walk rate went up and his K rate down?
Francoeur's K/BB was 68/30 in 567 Lo-A PAs at age 19. His K rate was now almost the same as Reyes, but his walks were less.

Reyes' K/BB was 25/15 in 181 AAA PAs at age 20
Reyes K/BB was 36/13 in 292 MLB PAS at age 20, the walk rate was low, the K rate was pretty good.
At age 20, Frenchy had a 84/22 k/bb rate between A+ and AA (mostly A+)

Reyes' seemed to regress at age 21 as he battled his hamstring, 31/5 in 220 PAs (MLB)
Frenchy was at 76/21 in 367 AA PAs, and 58/11 in 274 MLB PAs

Reyes was healthy at age 22, but had a 78/27 k/bb in 733 PAs, his K rate was GOOD, his walk rate abysmal- he was swinging at pitches outside the zone- but he wasn't going for unhittable stuff.
Frenchy was 132/23 in 680 PAs

Reyes at age 23 turned into Jose Reyes, 81/53 k/bb, the next year 78/77 and the next 82/66
Frenchy at age 23 was 129/42 followed by 111/39, he's at 47/12 now

FWIW: Ages 23/25, 250+ KS, 100- walks:
Cnt Player            OPS+  SO   BB    PA  From  To
+----+-----------------+----+----+----+-----+----+----+
    
1 Frank Howard       125  266   92  1317 1960 1962 
    2 Geoff Jenkins      123  283   88  1342 1998 2000 
    3 Raul Mondesi       123  296   81  1707 1994 1996 
    4 Matt Williams      121  338   80  1610 1989 1991 
    5 Willie Stargell    121  304   75  1352 1963 1965 
    6 Carl Crawford      114  281   96  1963 2005 2007 
    7 Sammy Sosa         114  290   82  1390 1992 1994 
    8 Richie Sexson      111  318   99  1315 1998 2000 
    9 Roberto Kelly      111  252   77  1266 1988 1990 
   10 Cory Snyder        107  390   89  1606 1986 1988 
   11 Rondell White      106  251   94  1522 1995 1997 
   12 Tommie Agee        106  359  100  1664 1966 1968 
   13 Wily Mo Pena       104  300   62   956 2005 2007 
   14 Juan Samuel        104  451   87  2079 1984 1986 
   15 Carlos Lee         101  251   89  1741 1999 2001 
   16 Bo Jackson          98  338   62   993 1986 1988 
   17 Alexis Rios         97  274   94  1477 2004 2006 
   18 Pedro Munoz         97  254   61  1060 1992 1994 
   19 Bill Hall           94  250   66  1116 2003 2005 
   20 Juan Encarnacion    90  296   68  1585 1999 2001 
   21 Torii Hunter        87  265   73  1383 1999 2001 
   22 Corey Patterson     86  363   83  1515 2003 2005 
   23 Jeff Francoeur      85  287   93  1681 2007 2009 
   24 Dale Sveum          85  255   61  1081 1987 1988 
   25 John Buck           79  257   64  1097 2004 2006 
+----+-----------------+----+----+----+-----+----+----+
  
Cnt Player            OPS+  SO   BB    PA  From  To
+----+-----------------+----+----+----+-----+----+----+
   
26 Aurelio Rodriguez   79  282   86  1877 1971 1973 
   27 Shawon Dunston      75  290   47  1569 1986 1988 


Some of those guys did have reasonably decent careers
I never thought of Torii Hunter as a hitting comp for Frenchy before, he doesn't fit badly, but age 25 was when he started hitting for enough power to be useful, Frenchy isn't hitting for any power. Likewise Rios, through age 24 he was a good match...
   129. Mike Emeigh Posted: July 13, 2009 at 08:28 PM (#3252134)
Frenchy isn't hitting for any power.


And that's really the issue, which going to CitiField isn't going to help. The power has gone backwards.

I still think Jose Guillen is the best comp for Francouer, and I suspect that Frenchy will have a couple of years like Guillen's age 27-29 performances if he gets to the right ballpark.

-- MWE
   130. JPWF13 Posted: July 13, 2009 at 09:07 PM (#3252185)
I still think Jose Guillen is the best comp for Francouer, and I suspect that Frenchy will have a couple of years like Guillen's age 27-29 performances if he gets to the right ballpark.




As a Met fan I would hope so, but...
   131. Mike Emeigh Posted: July 14, 2009 at 12:34 AM (#3252391)
As a Met fan I would hope so, but...


I don't think Citi Field is the right ballpark.

-- MWE
   132. Johnny Tuttle Posted: July 14, 2009 at 10:31 AM (#3252834)
Was that rehearsed?

re post 127: that's a damning and impressively logged list. I couldn't see not getting a Dunn or an Abreu myself. That's the one that really puzzled for me.
   133. Rafael Bellylard: Built like a Panda. Posted: July 14, 2009 at 11:05 AM (#3252835)
Any BTF list that has you ranking below Corey Patterson isn't one you want to be on.
   134. Sexy Lizard Posted: July 30, 2009 at 11:36 AM (#3273457)
327/350/527!
   135. RollingWave Posted: July 30, 2009 at 12:16 PM (#3273470)
327/350/527!
predictable.
   136. Dan Szymborski Posted: July 30, 2009 at 03:16 PM (#3273647)
And the funniest thing is that the better Francoeur does the last 2 months, the worse the trade is for the Mets. If he's good enough they bring him back, he'll probably hack his way to 260/280/430 and help torpedo the team in 2010.
   137. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: July 30, 2009 at 03:20 PM (#3273648)
And the funniest thing is that the better Francoeur does the last 2 months, the worse the trade is for the Mets. If he's good enough they bring him back, he'll probably hack his way to 260/280/430 and help torpedo the team in 2010.

Yep. He's doing to the Mets what he did to the Braves. Good stuff. I expect to see Francoeur pimping for Hillside Honda and Nino's on the tv any day now.
   138. PreservedFish Posted: July 30, 2009 at 03:24 PM (#3273650)
He's actually pretty damn close to the Mabry line
   139. 1k5v3L Posted: July 30, 2009 at 03:27 PM (#3273652)
Stop hating on Frenchy. Delta Shuttle's flights out of LaGuardia should see a decent bump in traffic.

Hillside Honda? That should make for some awesome Frenchy vs. Michael Kay shouting matches on the airwaves.
Hillside vs. Bay Ridge. Queens vs. Brooklyn. SNY vs. YES. Good vs. Evil. Good stuff.
   140. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: July 30, 2009 at 03:33 PM (#3273658)
Hillside Honda? That should make for some awesome Frenchy vs. Michael Kay shouting matches on the airwaves.Hillside vs. Bay Ridge. Queens vs. Brooklyn. SNY vs. YES. Good vs. Evil. Good stuff.

Maybe Frenchy could do the ads for that BBQ place that can't seem to find an actress that can do a non-laughable southern accent. Then again, I love those ads, so hopefully not.
   141. RollingWave Posted: July 30, 2009 at 03:58 PM (#3273684)
And the funniest thing is that the better Francoeur does the last 2 months, the worse the trade is for the Mets. If he's good enough they bring him back, he'll probably hack his way to 260/280/430 and help torpedo the team in 2010.
no , worse, they could Oliver Perez him.
   142. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: July 30, 2009 at 04:03 PM (#3273692)
And the funniest thing is that the better Francoeur does the last 2 months, the worse the trade is for the Mets. If he's good enough they bring him back, he'll probably hack his way to 260/280/430 and help torpedo the team in 2010.
How many teams have run out two guys with below .300 OBPs lately? And had neither be a SS? Because the 2010 Mets (Francoeur and Santos) would seem to have a decent shot at it.
   143. The Buddy Biancalana Hit Counter Posted: July 30, 2009 at 04:14 PM (#3273704)
How many teams have run out two guys with below .300 OBPs lately? And had neither be a SS? Because the 2010 Mets (Francoeur and Santos) would seem to have a decent shot at it.

Just two?
   144. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 08, 2009 at 09:36 PM (#3407098)
The Braves designated Church for assignment today.
   145. PS is probably a sitcom character Posted: December 09, 2009 at 12:30 AM (#3407358)
Church for Atl: 0.5 WAR
Francoeur for NYM: 0.4 WAR + future value

Considering the salaries of these players and Francoeur's future performance, this is still a Braves win.
   146. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 09, 2009 at 01:20 AM (#3407409)
Considering the salaries of these players and Francoeur's future performance, this is still a Braves win.

That's only true if you believe that Frenchy was actually worth -8.8 runs in the field in 75 games as a Met, which I doubt A LOT. Francoeur was the better player after the trade. Also, the Braves sent money the Mets way.

The trade in itself was a win for the Mets. The decision to keep Francoeur might end up being a mistake.
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