Mets - “Acquired” Francoeur
New York Mets - Acquired OF Delta Airlines® Presents Jeff Francoeur from the Atlanta Braves for OF Ryan Church.
I like trades that are easy to dissect.
Ryan Church is a better baseball player than Jeff Francoeur. Ryan Church is overwhelmingly likely to always be a better player than Jeff Francoeur. I am amazed that Dayton Moore only did the second-dumbest thing today.
Ryan Church upgrades the Braves outfield. Ryan Church increases the chances that the Braves will win the NL East in any season that the team plays Ryan Church at the expense of Jeff Francoeur.
Jeff Francoeur downgrades the Mets outfield. Jeff Francoeur increases the chance that the Mets will not win the NL East in any season that the team plays Jeff Francoeur at the expense of Ryan Church. Or possibly a galvanized metal garbage can. When was the last time your garbage can swung at a slider halfway to Peoria? Francoeur actually might be good enough to play for the Peoria Chiefs.
If you made a trade this one-sided with your little brother as a child, you parents would instantly negate the trade and send you to your room. It’s like giving your little brother an empty can of Fanta for his Boba Fett. Now, Ryan Church isn’t as awesome as Boba Fett, but I don’t have to pay a million dollars to an empty can of Fanta either. Ryan Church is not a star, but I wouldn’t trade minor-league shortstop David Church for Francoeur either and he’s a player I just made up.
FRANK WREN GO TO YOUR ROOM AND DONT LET ME CATCH YOU PLAYING HALO!
2009 ZIPS Projection - Jeff Francoeur
——————————————————————————————————————
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG
——————————————————————————————————————
Year-to-Date 304 32 76 12 2 5 35 12 46 5 .250 .282 .352
Rest-of-Year 286 34 74 15 1 7 36 16 51 2 .259 .305 .390
——————————————————————————————————————
Total 590 66 150 27 3 12 71 28 97 7 .255 .293 .370
Year-to-date totals include minor-league translations, if applicable.
2009 ZIPS Projection - Ryan Church
——————————————————————————————————————
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG
——————————————————————————————————————
Year-to-Date 232 52 65 16 0 2 22 17 36 6 .280 .332 .375
Rest-of-Year 190 32 52 12 0 6 27 20 43 3 .273 .347 .439
——————————————————————————————————————
Total 422 84 117 28 0 8 49 37 79 9 .277 .339 .404
Year-to-date totals include minor-league translations, if applicable.
Dan Szymborski
Posted: July 10, 2009 at 10:25 PM |
149 comment(s)
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True, but you're still looking at it from the wrong end: Church is not Kazmir, but Frenchy is a black hole who has killed his team for the past couple of years. The move won't have the longterm negative impact that the Kazmir deal did, but it's a bad move that shouldn't be excused.
Predictably, the WFAN hosts in NY last night (Steve Somers and Tony Page) thought the move was a good one. Most common justifications? "Something had to be done to shake up this team." "Francoeur has tremendous upside if he can figure things out." "Church wasn't happy here." "The manager didn't get along with Church."
Most callers thought the move was good, some saw the light. One caller was particularly dense, and comically so. He said "I like the move, but since it's the Braves I feel like they know something we don't. I know his OBP is incredibly bad, but there must be something else I'm missing. I know he swings at pitches 5 feet off the plate, but there must be something else I'm missing." I mean, what else has to be "missing" once you list those things? That's not enough?
Sorry to quote you on a tangent, but this is my point in [103]. Whether this is a bad move or a horrible move in terms of performance seems irrelevant; if Francouer gets the average Mets fan slightly more excited about the team, and potentially even down to the ballpark over the next two months, the team may consider it a successful deal.
The problem is that any speculative gain in "excitement" is washed away by the fact that Francoeur sucks and is likely to hurt the team on the field. Making the team worse doesn't usually result in an increase in attendance.
The fact of the matter is, I think it was dumb for the Mets to give up anything for a player as unreservedly awful as Jeff Francoeur. But on a practical level, with their second- and third-best position players out, and their best pitcher pitching like a bad one, the Mets aren't sacrificing anything by taking a flyer. If he's still playing next year, that's a problem -- but it's a problem to be dealt with next year.
Why do people seem to be disregarding the notion that Francoeur is a problem this year?
He is a problem to be dealt with this year.
but... but...
he was 2 for 4 with 2 RBIs in his Metsie debut...
Excellent. Then the Mets can trade him while his value is high. Maybe they could get someone like Ryan Church from the Braves for him. That would be an immediate upgrade.
welll it's all relative
Andruw once upon a time was a good offensive player.
Frenchy, aside from his fluke first 50 games, merely achieved mediocrity once....
Excellent. Then the Mets can trade him while his value is high. Maybe they could get someone like Ryan Church from the Braves for him. That would be an immediate upgrade.
They could of had Nyjer Morgan if they were proactive!
Yeah and this year he hit a HR on opening night then went on to have an even worse season than last year. So there's lots to look forward to.
dunno that it came through, but in no way was [114] intended as a serious comment...
sometimes I wonder if guys like Minaya are just your typical sports radio/sports bar patron - neither idiot nor genius - who happens to land a job with a Major League franchise, and then work his way well past any level of competency.
I know. I'm just saying, Frenchy is really good at teasing. And tonight's game is probably good for a laughable article somewhere.
Because the Mets aren't going to win anything this year.
I'd argue for Bill Robinson. Right down to the plate discipline.
Which would be a disaster for the Mets.
Not only because they'd then HAVE to tender the 3 mil or whatever for one of the demonstrably worst players in the league in order to prop up the myth that said 2nd half was a product of doing their job...
but because now they've validated their mode of doing their job - stupid, lazy WAG INSTEAD of doing their job.
A bear COULD take a dump in an outhouse.
Larussa wouldn't have to leave the comfort of his couch to RIGHT LEFT the turd coming out of the bear's ass.
But don't think Larussa would trade for the bear on the COULD.
The Dangerous Kevin Bass?
It's not a franchise killer or appallingly, horrifically stupid, no. But it's really, really, really, really dumb. It's in keeping with a lot of other foolish, but not huge enough to lose your mind over, moves that Omar has made (or, failed to make). To wit:
-Signing Luis Castillo to a four-year contract.
-Expecting that Endy Chavez and Fernando Tatis will stop hitting like Endy Chavez and Fernando Tatis.
-Failing to pick up a decent COF last off-season, when the market was flooded with them.
-Taking Oliver Perez over Derek Lowe when the latter was clearly the kind of pitcher we needed.
-Trading Lastings Milledge for two players we didn't really need.
-Related to the above, thinking that Brian Schneider is a full-time major league catcher.
-Trading Ramon Castro because Omir Santos hit a few home runs one month and Jerry Manuel likes him.
-Placing SO much faith in Daniel Murphy.
-The unprofessional manner in which they fired Willie Randolph.
None of these things, by themselves, are the kinds of things that doom a baseball team. But, taken together, you get the 2009 Mets. You get two historic collapses. You get an organization that, by all appearances, just doesn't get it, doesn't understand what it takes to put together a truly competitive team every year, even though they clearly have the core talent to do so. That's what's so frustrating about the Mets. They're not the Royals, who couldn't pick a major-league hitter out of a lineup of A-ballers. They're not the Astros, who seem perpetually locked in a struggle to maybe someday attain 85 victories. They show flashes of greatness, but they have Luis Castillo for two more years and bat Jeremy Reed in the middle of the order. They come close, but fall short because they screw up the little things like building a bullpen, or a bench, or evaluating performance variation.
This is the year that it's all going horribly, horribly wrong, and though few, if any, teams could come back from the injuries the Mets have suffered, this team has nothing to fall back on. You can't blame chance anymore. You can't go out and grab a big-name pitcher or two and gloss it all over. The holes in this organization run too deep. Yes, this trade is not, in itself, significantly dumber than any number of other dumb trades. But for Mets fans, it's the last straw.
Isn't Jose Reyes an obvious answer? Hot-shot prospect with good but not great numbers, plate discipline issues, scalding start followed by sub-700 OPSes. In 2005 Rob Neyer said that Jose Reyes was "one of the very worst everyday players in the majors."
Not that I think F-Core can replicate Reyes' success. Sammy Sosa is another name that pops out, but with both he and Reyes you are talking about the dark days being around age 22, not age 25.
No.
Reyes' k/bb was 71/18 in 435 lo A PAs, he was also 18
Francoeur's k/bb was 34/15 in 167 rookie league PAs at age 18, his walk rate was much higher than Reyes, and so was his K rate - having seen both players since I suspect it was more a matter of Frenchy swinging and missing more often and going to deeper counts
Reyes' k/bb was 77/46 in 622 PAS split between A+ and AA, he was 19, notice how his walk rate went up and his K rate down?
Francoeur's K/BB was 68/30 in 567 Lo-A PAs at age 19. His K rate was now almost the same as Reyes, but his walks were less.
Reyes' K/BB was 25/15 in 181 AAA PAs at age 20
Reyes K/BB was 36/13 in 292 MLB PAS at age 20, the walk rate was low, the K rate was pretty good.
At age 20, Frenchy had a 84/22 k/bb rate between A+ and AA (mostly A+)
Reyes' seemed to regress at age 21 as he battled his hamstring, 31/5 in 220 PAs (MLB)
Frenchy was at 76/21 in 367 AA PAs, and 58/11 in 274 MLB PAs
Reyes was healthy at age 22, but had a 78/27 k/bb in 733 PAs, his K rate was GOOD, his walk rate abysmal- he was swinging at pitches outside the zone- but he wasn't going for unhittable stuff.
Frenchy was 132/23 in 680 PAs
Reyes at age 23 turned into Jose Reyes, 81/53 k/bb, the next year 78/77 and the next 82/66
Frenchy at age 23 was 129/42 followed by 111/39, he's at 47/12 now
FWIW: Ages 23/25, 250+ KS, 100- walks:
Cnt Player OPS+ SO BB PA From To+----+-----------------+----+----+----+-----+----+----+
1 Frank Howard 125 266 92 1317 1960 1962
2 Geoff Jenkins 123 283 88 1342 1998 2000
3 Raul Mondesi 123 296 81 1707 1994 1996
4 Matt Williams 121 338 80 1610 1989 1991
5 Willie Stargell 121 304 75 1352 1963 1965
6 Carl Crawford 114 281 96 1963 2005 2007
7 Sammy Sosa 114 290 82 1390 1992 1994
8 Richie Sexson 111 318 99 1315 1998 2000
9 Roberto Kelly 111 252 77 1266 1988 1990
10 Cory Snyder 107 390 89 1606 1986 1988
11 Rondell White 106 251 94 1522 1995 1997
12 Tommie Agee 106 359 100 1664 1966 1968
13 Wily Mo Pena 104 300 62 956 2005 2007
14 Juan Samuel 104 451 87 2079 1984 1986
15 Carlos Lee 101 251 89 1741 1999 2001
16 Bo Jackson 98 338 62 993 1986 1988
17 Alexis Rios 97 274 94 1477 2004 2006
18 Pedro Munoz 97 254 61 1060 1992 1994
19 Bill Hall 94 250 66 1116 2003 2005
20 Juan Encarnacion 90 296 68 1585 1999 2001
21 Torii Hunter 87 265 73 1383 1999 2001
22 Corey Patterson 86 363 83 1515 2003 2005
23 Jeff Francoeur 85 287 93 1681 2007 2009
24 Dale Sveum 85 255 61 1081 1987 1988
25 John Buck 79 257 64 1097 2004 2006
+----+-----------------+----+----+----+-----+----+----+
Cnt Player OPS+ SO BB PA From To
+----+-----------------+----+----+----+-----+----+----+
26 Aurelio Rodriguez 79 282 86 1877 1971 1973
27 Shawon Dunston 75 290 47 1569 1986 1988
Some of those guys did have reasonably decent careers
I never thought of Torii Hunter as a hitting comp for Frenchy before, he doesn't fit badly, but age 25 was when he started hitting for enough power to be useful, Frenchy isn't hitting for any power. Likewise Rios, through age 24 he was a good match...
And that's really the issue, which going to CitiField isn't going to help. The power has gone backwards.
I still think Jose Guillen is the best comp for Francouer, and I suspect that Frenchy will have a couple of years like Guillen's age 27-29 performances if he gets to the right ballpark.
-- MWE
As a Met fan I would hope so, but...
I don't think Citi Field is the right ballpark.
-- MWE
re post 127: that's a damning and impressively logged list. I couldn't see not getting a Dunn or an Abreu myself. That's the one that really puzzled for me.
Yep. He's doing to the Mets what he did to the Braves. Good stuff. I expect to see Francoeur pimping for Hillside Honda and Nino's on the tv any day now.
Hillside Honda? That should make for some awesome Frenchy vs. Michael Kay shouting matches on the airwaves.
Hillside vs. Bay Ridge. Queens vs. Brooklyn. SNY vs. YES. Good vs. Evil. Good stuff.
Maybe Frenchy could do the ads for that BBQ place that can't seem to find an actress that can do a non-laughable southern accent. Then again, I love those ads, so hopefully not.
Just two?
Francoeur for NYM: 0.4 WAR + future value
Considering the salaries of these players and Francoeur's future performance, this is still a Braves win.
That's only true if you believe that Frenchy was actually worth -8.8 runs in the field in 75 games as a Met, which I doubt A LOT. Francoeur was the better player after the trade. Also, the Braves sent money the Mets way.
The trade in itself was a win for the Mets. The decision to keep Francoeur might end up being a mistake.
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