|
|
|
Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Sunday, March 20, 2005
Mets - Acquired Ishii
New York Mets - Acquired P Kazuhisa Ishii from the Los Angeles Dodgers for C-1B Jason Phillips
Zambrano and Ishii in the same rotation? To see four balls more often, you’ll have to go rent a gay porno.
Will Ishii be terrible in Trachsel’s absence? Probably not; if the Mets are good enough to compete, having Ishii in the 5th spot won’t hinder them enough to send them to the basement. It seems at this point that the Dodgers will pay Ishii’s salary, so it’s not too bad for the Mets in the long run.
The Dodgers do get a little help. I really don’t think Navarro is ready and other than that, the short-term catching situation is bleak, especially for a contender. Phillips won’t hit like he did in 2003 but I think he’ll hit something like 330/400 for the Dodgers which isn’t a gaping hole, which is the likely situation now.
Dan Szymborski
Posted: March 20, 2005 at 03:29 AM | 117 comment(s)
Login to Bookmark
Related News:
|
Support BBTF
Thanks to
Adam M
for his generous support.
Bookmarks
You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.
Hot Topics
2012 ZiPS Projections, Final Edition (23 - 11:21am, May 31)Last: craigsaboe2012 ZiPS/RBI Baseball (20 - 10:58am, May 03)Last: tjans2012 ZiPS Projections Spreadsheets, v. 1 (62 - 4:38pm, Apr 10)Last: nemodomi2012 ZiPS Projections - Oakland A's (69 - 5:57am, Apr 10)Last: Athletic Supporter gangnam style2012 ZiPS Projections - Kansas City Royals (31 - 1:51pm, Mar 23)Last: hokieneerPirates - Acquire Burnett (10 - 12:09am, Feb 21)Last: YR Misses Reggie Bars2012 ZiPS Projections - Pittsburgh Pirates (41 - 11:02am, Feb 20)Last: Dangerous Dean2012 ZiPS Projections - Minnesota Twins (31 - 9:53pm, Feb 17)Last: A Random 8-Year-Old Eskimo2012 ZiPS Projections - Boston Red Sox (46 - 5:41pm, Feb 17)Last: Jose Can Still Seabiscuit2012 ZiPS Projections - San Diego Padres (29 - 3:33pm, Feb 17)Last: Dan Szymborski2012 ZiPS Projections - Arizona Diamondbacks (31 - 3:03am, Feb 14)Last: Dan Szymborski2012 ZiPS Projections - Texas Rangers (21 - 1:43pm, Feb 10)Last: DEF: NPW (WWRJD)2012 ZiPS Projections - Miami Marlins (31 - 9:16pm, Feb 07)Last: Misirlou is bad, he's nationwide2012 ZiPS Projections - Cleveland Indians (19 - 11:18pm, Feb 02)Last: DevinM2012 ZiPS Projections - Atlanta Braves (28 - 7:25pm, Jan 31)Last: Gern Blanston
|
|
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
Why rent? As Rosie Clooney used to sing, just "come on 'a my house, 'a my house . . . ."
If the Dodgers really are paying the salary (or even a lot of it), then I really have no problem with this deal. How much do you expect to get for a back-up catcher, anyway? The most important thing this deal does is restore the depth of starters the Mets lost when Trachsel went down. Now, they have some options if (when?) one of their other four starters goes down sometime along the way.
Meanwhile, an encouraging article in the Times about Heilman, and Peterson working with him to restore the delivery he was successful with in college. Just the kind of thing a good pitching coach should try with a struggling young pitcher. It probably won't help, but at least they're trying some new stuff with him instead of just giving up.
If this happens it's a ####### catastrophe!
Are you people ####### kidding me?
By horribly, btw, I mean he had an ERA of 7.57 his last 8 starts in 2002. The game he took the line drive in the skull he had walked 4 and given up two homeruns in the first 3.1 innings.
But while Ishii does have virtues, what doesn't get talked about is how the bullpen has to warm up frequently when he's on the mound. At his best he does a balancing act, letting men on and then getting out of it. But pretty much every game there are several times in the first five innings that he is on the edge of giving up a bunch of runs - and it can happen quickly with him, so the bullpen must get ready once he lets a couple of runners on base.
As a pitcher to fill a hole for a half season, he won't be the worst thing - but unless the Dodgers are paying the buyout and the majority of his salary he'll be expensive for what he gives the Mets.
Primey for Dan! How long did it take you to think of that one?
As for the deal, UGH. Jae Seo can't possibly be worse than this guy. He's horrible. 98/99 BB/K? Come on. Thats preposterous. So who will join me in my Zambrano-Ishii boycott?
Ishii is certainly the kind of pitcher I don't like; I want someone who throws strikes. But this is just not that bad, for a 5th starter it'll be OK.
Ishii -- he could be bad, but I don't see it as likely. On the other hand, he's capable of pitching 16 good games a year. anyone who can do that can pitch 10 good games in 16, and if he does that, it'll be a steal.
I don't see that Ginter or Seo have much chance, if any, of doing that. As to what's likely, it's likely that Ishii will have a 4.20-4.50ish ERA and be around 6-5, 5-5, 5-6, which is perhaps what Seo or Ginter would do. I actually think Ishii is a good upside gamble.
I don't think I am.
I don't like Ishii the pitcher, but I've agreed, this is nothing to get really worked up over. Phillips is a backup catcher... that is equal worth to take a shot on Ishii...
I'm not optimistic it will work out great, but its not a disaster...
Great point Akrasian.
And he also has a 5.5 IP/GS career line...
Just saying.
Is he an anti-Voros pitcher? Well, in '03 the Dodgers posted a .280 mark and Ishii had a .289 mark. In '02 LA was at .270 and Ishii was at .279. Uh-oh.
So last year he allowed 15 fewer hits than his teams H% says he should have, he doesn't seem to be one of those Charlie Hough types that can defy this.
Last year the Mets had a team H% of .284, though team H%s can change from year to year and they did just get Beltran.
Looking it up, he is an extreme flyball pitcher last year (0.64!!). That would explain the low H%. If he keeps on allowing all those flyballs, especially in this park and with this OF, he might be OK.
That being said, it couldn't hurt if he, ya know, threw the occasional strike or something.
11 IP
11 H
11 ER
11 K
10 BB
A regular Brave killer, huh?
Ishii + Johnson for Phillips? Sorry, major loss here.
OK. And if Zambrano takes a major step forward, and Ishii gives us a 90-100 ERA+, don't expect me to hold my tongue at how quickly you gave up on Peterson, OFF. He just has too good a track record to jump ship after one full season.
This move also puts Depodesta back in my "good" book after he moved into the "bad" with the Lowe signing. It takes a man of intelligence and skill to get ANYTHING for Ishii.
Hopefully Phillips will have a rebound in LA, akin to another ex New Yorker, Jeff Weaver. That is, if the trade goes through.
I think the point is that there's no evidence to think that Ishii will do any better than Jae Seo could do - yes, he strikes out more batters, but he also gives up more walks than Seo, and slightly more home runs. On that basis, since they already have Seo, any price is too high for something they can get for free.
Furthermore, while it's nice to think that Piazza will catch 120 games this year and as such his backup isn't all that important, there is every chance he will miss a fair chunk, and even for 40 games I'd rather have Jason Phillips's career ERA+ of 90 than Castro's 73.
At worst -- at worst -- that makes this trade a minor mistake, giving up a not-very-valuable asset for a redundant piece.
But even if it's true, I repeat: since when is it a bad thing to give up a back-up catcher for a serviceable major league starter? On the theory that you already have one? The Mets are quite likely to need Seo, Ginter, and Ishii along the way. There is a very good chance -- too good, in my book -- that Seo and Ginter together simply will not be enough to handle the starting and long relief chores that are likely to come their way with the Mets' staff. I'd rather have a third guy who is basically their equal than Jason Phillips. If I had my druthers, it'd be a more reliable strike-thrower than Ishii, but there isn't a hell of a lot out there to pick from.
For the first time this spring, Cameron — who's recovering from left wrist surgery — played in an intrasquad game yesterday. He faced minor leaguers, getting five at-bats and coming away pleased.
"I felt good," Cameron said. "I felt real good."
Imagine that -- good medical news coming from the Mets. You'd think they overhauled their medical and training staff or something.
Major party foul!
Maybe they could swing a deal for a guy like Greg Myers, guys who are going to get "caught" in roster crunches as teams decide against three Cs on the 25 man roster.
Sure, Phillips is a backup with the Mets, but that doesn't mean he couldn't be starting for a bunch of other clubs.
I'd rather have a third guy who is basically their equal than Jason Phillips.
That maybe true of this year, but what about next year when Piazza is gone?
You know, I have no problem with dealing Phillips. I do have a problem, however, with dealing Phillips for Kaz Ishii.
Then we're going to need a starting catcher, and I wouldn't want it to be Jason Phillips anyway. Maybe it'll be Mike Jacobs, though I doubt it.
The underlying message of this situation, BTW, is that it is important to have a pipeline of young talent that doesn't work in "bursts" but provides a steady stream of major-league ready replacements. We're in this fix because we don't have a starting pitcher quite ready in the pipeline.
Interestingly, a Daily News article today (here) suggests they might be willing to speed pitchers along more quickly than they have since Generation K flamed out. The money quote from Minaya:
To me, it's not what level a guy is in, it's how he throws the ball. I would not be afraid of bringing a guy up. I will say, your preference is to go through the process and the system. But there are some kids who are special guys - Zack Greinke with Kansas City, and we had Chad Cordero with the Expos. I don't get caught up into how many innings you have in the minor leagues and all that stuff.
Which tells me that if Ishii is as bad as OFF thinks he'll be -- a 7.50 ERA??? -- that it will clear the way for Petit by late June.
You know, I have no problem with dealing Phillips. I do have a problem, however, with dealing Phillips for Kaz Ishii.
Yeah, they should have held out for Ben Sheets.
Castro's not very good, granted. But how good is Phillips... really?
Ginter-4.94,3.91 (36 G/ 14 GS in ZiPS)
Heilman-5.06, 4.92
Seo-5.22, 4.47
Benson-4.86, 4.01
Zambrano-5.23, 4.92
Ishii-5.56,5.33
(a) Peterson doesn't give a rat's ass whether his pitchers throw strikes or not; or
(b) Peterson believes he can work with a pitcher to achieve better command of his stuff, hence improving his ability to throw strikes and making him more valuable to the Mets (or the A's before that) than he was to his original team.
I think we can safely rule out (a). Now the question is: is there any evidence to support Peterson's belief that he can accomplish (b)?
Well, I don't have the time or inclination to do a systematic study of the A's and Mets' pitchers who've worked with Peterson. But a number of pitchers have improved significantly in this respect working with him, including Kenny Rogers, Tim Hudson, Billy Taylor, Jason Isringhausen, and Mark Mulder (whose walks shot up significantly last year, sans Peterson). I, for one, am willing to take a wait-and-see attitude on whether Zambrano and/or Ishii show progress.
BTW, why is everybody so down on Peterson? He went from the epitome of a sabre pitching coach with all his pre-hab work with Dr Andrews to an overrated, self-promoting jack ass in less than one year.
Is it just because of speculation about his role in the Kazmir-Zambrano trade?
It's really been a shocking change in perception.
They also have a fascinating team to watch next year...whether they win 92 or lose 90 they have a great combination of young potential (or just becoming stars) and superstars in various stages of their careers.
I haven't either, but I can certainly see the difference between that trade and this one -- Zambrano and Ishii are similar pitchers, but Kazmir was about 10 times as valuable a commodity as Phillips.
And I think the Mientkiewicz trade was much worse than this one. Actually gave up a piece we can't readily replace in that one.
Instead of stockpiling averagish catchers, can the Dodgers just get a good one?
In terms of salary, it looks like the Dodgers will pay for Ishii's option buyout. That would still save the Dodgers about $3 million, enough for multiple signing bonuses of international free agents, for instance.
For PECOTA(2004 projected EQERA, actual EQERA)
Ginter-5.15, 4.03 MLE, 5.19 in MLB
Heilman-5.05, 5.39 MLE, 5.33 in MLB
Seo- 4.67, 3.32 MLE, 5.07 MLB
Benson-5.31, 4.53 in PIT, 4.85 NYM
Zambrano-4.99, 4.33 in TBY
Ishii-5.79, 5.09
Ginter-5.15, 4.03 MLE, 5.19 in MLB
Heilman-5.05, 5.39 MLE, 5.33 in MLB
Seo- 4.67, 3.32 MLE, 5.07 MLB
Benson-5.31, 4.53 in PIT, 4.85 NYM
Zambrano-4.99, 4.33 in TBY
Ishii-5.79, 5.09
Looks like a pretty shitty basis for an argument.
Actually, dks did a study in this thread (post 8), which showed that Peterson hads no effect on pitchers.
At worst -- at worst
########.
Jae Seo threw 188 IP at 111 ERA+ *BEFORE* Peterson showed up.
Ishii is significantly worse than Seo. The cost is solely financial, but Peterson ####### up a perfectly good starter is pissing me off.
Yeah, because you never see a pitcher have a first season with a 111 ERA+ and then fail to duplicate it. It had to have been Peterson screwing him up, rather than Seo losing 3-5 MPH off his fastball. It couldn't be that Jae Seo saw his performance deteriorate because he was never a 111 ERA+ pitcher to begin with.
Not that I mind Ishii leaving the Dodgers. He has his decent stretches, but the negatives are enough that few Dodger fans will miss him. I don't think anybody expected Ishii to finish the season with the team.
He batted .218 with seven home runs and 34 RBIs in 362 at-bats last season, after batting .298 with 11 home runs and 58 home runs as a rookie in 2003.
Sam,
you are going to lose this argument. Just concede.
Sure pitchers have. If only there weren't a pitching coach openly saying he sucks.
It may not be an argument either side can "win," Chris, but I'm pretty confident in what I believe happened. And while I think Peterson might have been more flexible in the way he tried to go about things, I put most of the explanation about the same place Rob puts it.
He sabotaged Seo, IMO, and left alone, Seo would be better than Ishii by a goog margin.
peterson tried/made Seo change his delivery or not pitch (my way or teh hiway). Seo got shafted.
Well:
Pre peterson: 188 IP, 111 ERA+
Post peterson: 118 IP 87 ERA+
Is your argument that Seo would have done that (or worse) anyway? That's pretty weak (particularly from a lawyer).
Every aspect of is game got worse *and* Peterson was sending him down *specifically* because Seo would't listen *in pre-season*. Seo never got a chance to struggle on his own.
chicken and egg requires a leap of faith in Peterson, IMNSHO.
But in the other game (v. LA), Jose Reyes' two errors almost cost the Mets the win, blowing a 6-1 lead. But Eric Valent's 3-run walk-off HR won it, 10-9. Pedro pitched great, five innings, one run.
Post peterson: 118 IP 87 ERA+
post hoc, ergo propter hoc. Nice argument, Dial.
Leiter: 106 --> 133 ERA+
Heilman: 63 --> 78 ERA+
Looper: 109 --> 158 ERA+
Stanton: 93 --> 135 ERA+
These statistics (2003 ERA+ --> 2004 ERA+) prove that Peterson is a god among me.
The first way you said it was much funnier.
So did you hear about the plane full of lawyers that crashed into the ocean?
Post peterson: 118 IP 87 ERA+
post hoc, ergo propter hoc. Nice argument, Dial.
Well, Rob, I didn't make that argument.
What I posted are simple facts. I didn't assign causation.
Reading comprehension rules.
I don't know that to be true.
Reading comprehension rules.
I guess my criticism is that your simple facts have no relevance then.
Had to work it out with a pencil.
Here are the details of Ishii's contract: He earns $3.2 million in 2005, with $2.05 million deferred without interest, and the Dodgers will pay that deferred money. There is an option for 2006 at $3.25 million, with a buyout of $2.2 million. If the Mets choose the buyout, the Dodgers must pay it. If the Mets pick up the option, there then is an option for 2007 for $4 million, or a $1.1 million buyout. If the Mets choose the buyout, the Dodgers must pay it. If the Mets pick up both option years, the Dodgers are responsible only for the $2.05 million deferred salary.
And games. He is a downgrade from Seo and Ginter.
And Heilman pitched great today, first game after Peterson "fixed" him.
I don't know about their relative defensive abilities, but I do know that Phillips was highly regarded by the scouts when he was coming up. And in so far as every catching move the A's made the last couple of years DePodesta was there, and every catching move the Dodgers have made, was for good defensive players, I'd guess that Phillips scores well on whatever analysis DePo is using.
Unassigned causation does not preclude relevance, man.
What I want to know is where the information about Seo's turning up to camp fat and slow comes from. I don't remember hearing that, but then again, I don't really follow the Mets.
Furthermore, how much do we really know about Peterson's involvement with transactions? I assume most teams get some input from their pitching coaches when they think about acquiring a pitcher. And we've all heard the whispers that Peterson thought Kazmir was fragile and Zambrano could be fixed. But people seem to be acting as if it was Peterson himself who pulled the trigger on this trade, whereas it might just be Minaya's doing, with little or no input from Peterson.
FWIW, DePo said this about Phillips:
He's very solid defensively
IMO it looks like his 2004 was a pretty unlucky year for him at the plate. I'm not saying 2003 was his "true" talent level but I think the Dodgers may have gotten themselves a fairly valuable player in exchange for a spare part.
From what I understand Seo's personality has been a concern for the Mets on and off going back a few years, even pre-2003: A New Yorker article last year described it as a peculiar form of melancholy they have a word for in Korea, forget what it was. But it's safe to say Seo and the Mets have been cool on one another for awhile now: He definitely seemed to get the short shrift at spring training last year, and this winter he'd apparently said unkind things to the Koran press regarding his treatment by the team. Don't know what caused what.
FWIW, my own impression is that Phillips developed a bad case of the uppercuts last year. He was hitting everything in the air, and with not much authority. I don't doubt he was somewhat unlucky, but I don't think that was the biggest part of it.
(Dodger fans may remember one particularly unlucky AB Phillips had last year, in an April 28th game where the Mets had the tying run on second base and Gagne still had the save streak going. Phillips hit a bullet targeted for center field, which would have tied the game and ended the streak. Instead, it ricocheted off Gagne, and Phillips was retired for the last out of the 8th. The Mets didn't score, and the save streak continued.
Here it is.
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main