Mets - Acquired Santana
New York Mets - Acquired P Johan Santana from the Minnesota Twins for OF Carlos Gomez, P Phil Humber, P Deolis Guerra, and P Kevin Mulvey.
A lot of people are saying what a weak package of players this is for Santana. I have to disagree - some of the packages that were thrown around for the Santana trade didn’t happen simply because they were unrealistic. A player’s salary is a big function of their value and while Santana is one of the best pitchers around, the Mets don’t get a super tremendous awesomely outrageous deal when they sign Santana’s paychecks as the Twins did while paying Santana $28 million for over $100 million worth of performance. There was no mythical Lowrie/Masterson/Lester/Ellsbury/Anderson/Doerr/Plantier/Pesky/Fenway/50% of Shell Oil/Jesus package out there in exchange for a single year of Santana and the rights to negotiate a market contract with Santana.
Individually, I like Adam Jones better than each player in this trade, but every player in this trade is a real prospect. Gomez is probably overrated as a prospect, but he’s got a ton of potential. Guerra’s years off, but has a lot of upside, as does Humber, and Mulvey, while not a high ceiling guy with a blazing fastball, throws enough strikes and keeps the ball down and should be a good #4 starter immediately. Now, I think the Mets are putting too much emphasis on acquiring arms here, one thing they’ve developed well in recent years, but I’m not sure Fernando Martinez was really get-table unless they drastically reduced the number of players coming back and I don’t think Bill Smith wanted to put all his eggs in one basket this early in his GM career.
For the Mets, the benefits of this package are obvious. It returns them to probably being the best team in the NL and while Mulvey could have stepped in and helped them almost immediately, Santana does that a whole lot better. The Mets, even in 2005, haven’t really received a true injury-free PEDRO YEAR from Pedro. As such, the NL is owed a whupping, which Santana will helpfully provide.
No optimistic/pessimistic yet - I’m not at that computer.
2008 ZiPS Projections
Player W L G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
Humber 6 10 24 22 122 143 76 25 34 71 5.61 76
Mulvey 9 9 23 23 137 156 68 11 36 61 4.47 102
Santana 18 8 34 34 234 192 79 28 46 244 3.04 140
2007 ZiPS Projections
Player AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG OPS+
Gomez 324 33 78 15 2 5 29 19 73 22 .241 .299 .346 69
Posted: January 30, 2008 at 02:01 PM | 123 comment(s)
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