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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Wednesday, December 30, 2009
Mets - Signed Bengie
New York Mets - Signed C Bengie Molina to a 2-year contract.
Unfortunately for the Mets, there aren’t a lot of great options out there for a team wanting a solid catcher for a few years. Statheads love Josh Thole, but his defense needs work and he has absolutely no power and he is pretty much the only slightly palatable option for the Mets. Bengie Molina is unlikely to be very good, but when your team plays Omir Santos on purpose, he represents a decent stopgap. Don’t expect too much from Molina - he’s still a 35-year-old catcher in lousy shape coming off an 86 OPS+.
No dollar figures released, but it’s presumably not a figure large enough that it will prevent the Mets from doing what they absolutely have to - grabbing the last bits of good pitching on the market as if their lives depended on it (because they do).
ZiPS Projection - Bengie Molina (C)
————————————————————————————————————————-
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG OPS+
————————————————————————————————————————-
2010 444 43 116 22 1 16 88 16 52 0 .261 .290 .423 88
2011 413 39 106 19 1 14 82 14 49 0 .257 .283 .409 82
————————————————————————————————————————-
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Barry Lyons, Bo Diaz, Michelin Man
ODDIBE
Offense
Top Quintile 4%
2nd Quintile 16%
Mid Quintile 27%
4th Quintile 35%
Low Quintile 19%
OPS+ OBP 3B Hits
160+ 0% .400+ 0% 10+ 0% 200+ 0%
140+ 0% .375+ 0% 5+ 0% 150+ 1%
130+ 1% .350+ 1%
120+ 2% .325+ 8% 2B
110+ 6% .300+ 33% 45+ 0%
100+ 16% 30+ 9%
90+ 40%
80+ 71%
60+ 91%
BA SLG HR SB
.350+ 0% .550+ 0% 50+ 0% 70+ 0%
.325+ 1% .500+ 2% 40+ 0% 50+ 0%
.300+ 8% .450+ 21% 30+ 1% 30+ 0%
.275+ 30% .400+ 75% 20+ 25% 10+ 0%
.250+ 68% .350+ 98% 10+ 92%
(Based on Projected PA)
Dan Szymborski
Posted: December 30, 2009 at 01:05 AM | 57 comment(s)
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1. you got a STEAGLES? you're gonna need a STEAGLES. Posted: December 30, 2009 at 01:28 AM (#3424302)Wtf do you care so much?
And Omar showed resolve in not giving in to Molina's demand for a three-year deal. This standoff went on a long time, and it was Molina who blinked.
as for what i'll be looking for, i'm wondering about how it'll see his plate discipline progressing since he started his career barely ever taking a walk, saw a boost during his first tenure in philly, and has been mediocre at the skill over the last 3 seasons while also seeing his batting average drop from .341 to .307 to .285.
actually, looking into all this kinda makes me want to crawl in a hole. the only way he'll be worth his contract is if he hits .300 each year, but if he doesn't get that, his OBP will be in the .340 range at best, while his isoP has never been better than .158. considering the consistency of his isoD, if his BA drops to .275, his best possible outcome looks to be a .275/.330/.430 type line. and if he does that, or worse, the next two years, that third is gonna be ugly. then there's the buyout.
I don't think WAR takes baserunning into account and WAR doesn't measure catcher defense. Earlier in his career, Molina's defense probably was enough to compensate for anything he gave up on the basepaths but I don't know if that's true anymore.
I'm pretty much with Lassus on this point even though rationally it's not that ridiculous a move. But I can't say I am going to enjoy wathcing him play baseball.
I'll bite; who's this? Smoky Burgess or somebody?
Like Russlan said, WAR doesn't include defense or baserunning. BPro has him at -4.5 runs on the basepaths in 2009 (-7.1 in 2008). The following article (http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/2009/10/13/1082419/2009-catcher-defense-filling-in) has him at -3.4 runs on defense in 2009. Subtract that from his +18 RAR and you have a 1 WAR player in 2009.
It's a pretty bad idea to bring in a mid-30s catcher on a multi-year deal coming off of consecutive 1 WAR seasons. I really hope they hold the line at 1 year or walk away. Either way I'd walk away.
I know you need to keep the baseball from rolling to the backstop but this is a very, very poor signing.
I think his name is "Bibby". It's a reference to an early ad, where he was drinking a beer stein full of nails and screws without being punctured, accompanied by the phrase "Nunc est bibendum" ("Now it is time to drink").
Apparently Molina needs a new agent.
I have a backup plan in place, but no one wants to see that happen.
Keep hope alive!
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/01/giants-resign-bengie-molina-to-oneyear-deal.html
I am rooting for mayhem this year. It's seriously in the best interests of the team that they stink this year and Sabean gets canned. Considering all of the good pieces on the team are young there's no reason why they can't be good in 2011 under a GM who is not a ####### moron.
So what do the Mets do at that position? Sign Barajas? Or throw Josh Thole in the deep end and hope he swims?
I gotta admit, a one year deal at 4.5 million wouldn't have upset me that much. It's likely that Molina is better than the Thole/Santos combination in 2009, even if he is unbearable to watch.
I barely even care now who plays catcher, now, really. Sad, but true. It's likely to be someone worse, even, but I feel satisfied that this small moral victory of even one fewer GIDP has been achieved.
I just want the season to start.
And Dan needs a higher standard for posting incendiary rumors to the Transaction Oracle.
No, it's likely that 2010 Molina is MUCH worse than Thole/Santos 2009, but then again Thole (.321/.356/.396 in 2009) and Santos (.260/.296/.391 in 2009) are likely to be worse in 2010 too...
The average catcher hits about .255/.320/.400, Lassus.
If I were more confident in Santos' ability to repeat last season, he wouldn't be a horrible stopgap. It's just that I am not confident that he can do so.
The way to find it is to go to EqA, and scroll down to "Position Totals"
American League 88
National League 86
Major League Baseball 87
using ESPN's splits
IOW all else being equal a catcher hitting an 80 doesn't hurt you nearly as much as a 1B hitting 95 (The AVERAGE 1B in 2009 was at 120) A catcher hitting 70 doesn't hurt you anymore than a 1B hitting 95 does.
Which is why the Mets' [apparent] obsession with getting Molina rather than someone like LaRoche made no sense
Is Delgado going to be a Met? Because if he isn't, I am pretty upset the Mets weren't ever linked with LaRoche.
I agree about Molina vs. LaRoche. I also agree that Santos isn't good.
Ultimately, it just was a mission of principle for me, I just didn't want to see an old lumbering catcher, and one that we were looking to pay for two damn years. Watch Molina put up an .828 this year, just to spite me.
I think Minaya wants Delgado, and was going to wait for the scouting reports on him before looking elsewhere, well he's playing now, but from what I've read what little mobility around the bag he had before is gone...
so what is Minaya to do?
I assume plan A is/was Delgado
Plan B is/was ????
Plan C is platoon Murphy/Carter and pray Ike develops real fast
Why?
Murphy/Tatis
what's the difference?
oh nevermind
Man, remember when the Rangers had enviable catching depth?
And the Posey era begins in SF.
I am so very happy. Even after a sweepby the blue
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