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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Mets - Signed Bengie

New York Mets - Signed C Bengie Molina to a 2-year contract.

Unfortunately for the Mets, there aren’t a lot of great options out there for a team wanting a solid catcher for a few years.  Statheads love Josh Thole, but his defense needs work and he has absolutely no power and he is pretty much the only slightly palatable option for the Mets.  Bengie Molina is unlikely to be very good, but when your team plays Omir Santos on purpose, he represents a decent stopgap.  Don’t expect too much from Molina - he’s still a 35-year-old catcher in lousy shape coming off an 86 OPS+.

No dollar figures released, but it’s presumably not a figure large enough that it will prevent the Mets from doing what they absolutely have to - grabbing the last bits of good pitching on the market as if their lives depended on it (because they do).

ZiPS Projection - Bengie Molina (C)
————————————————————————————————————————-
          AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB   BA OBP SLG OPS+ 
————————————————————————————————————————-
2010       444 43 116 22   1 16   88 16 52   0 .261 .290 .423   88    
2011       413 39 106 19   1 14   82 14 49   0 .257 .283 .409   82
————————————————————————————————————————-
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps:  Barry Lyons, Bo Diaz, Michelin Man

ODDIBE

Offense
Top Quintile   4%
2nd Quintile   16%
Mid Quintile   27%
4th Quintile   35%
Low Quintile   19%

OPS+              OBP           3B         Hits
160+        0%    .400+    0%    10+    0%    200+  0%
140+        0%    .375+    0%    5+    0%    150+  1%
130+        1%    .350+    1%
120+        2%    .325+    8%    2B
110+        6%    .300+    33%    45+    0%
100+        16%                30+    9%
90+          40%
80+          71%
60+          91%

BA               SLG           HR         SB
.350+        0%    .550+    0%    50+    0%    70+    0%
.325+        1%    .500+    2%    40+    0%    50+    0%
.300+        8%    .450+    21%    30+    1%    30+    0%
.275+        30%  .400+    75%    20+    25%    10+    0%
.250+        68%  .350+    98%    10+    92%
(Based on Projected PA)

 

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 30, 2009 at 12:05 AM | 57 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. starving to death with a full STEAGLES Posted: December 30, 2009 at 12:28 AM (#3424302)
still waiting on polanco to the phils.
   2. Tripon Posted: December 30, 2009 at 12:36 AM (#3424308)
Nobody cares about Polanco. If you really want to know, just check the Tigers ZiPS page.
   3. PreservedFish Posted: December 30, 2009 at 12:43 AM (#3424312)
still waiting on polanco to the phils.


Wtf do you care so much?
   4. Lassus Posted: December 30, 2009 at 12:50 AM (#3424316)
I'm taking a ############# emergency flight to Buffalo for a ############# FUNERAL, and this is what is going to see me off? I hope all you ########### ####### who find this signing to not be a problem burn in ####### hell.
   5. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 30, 2009 at 12:51 AM (#3424320)
Was anyone else offering Molina two years?
   6. Sam M. Posted: December 30, 2009 at 12:58 AM (#3424330)
Poor Lassus. I guess I'm ON THE LIST. I think it's OK, too. If Thole is going to have any chance at a career, step one is to have 2010 be a year in which he works on his defense and proves he can be a major league quality catcher. So the Mets needed to have a reasonable option at the major league level, and there just weren't many available. Molina will be acceptable, and IF Thole does make progress, 2011 can be the year he serves as Molina's apprentice, learns the league and the Mets' staff while getting enough major league experience to take over the job in 2012. And if Thole doesn't show himself to be a real prospect, the Mets won't have wasted 2010 hoping for something that isn't going to happen.

And Omar showed resolve in not giving in to Molina's demand for a three-year deal. This standoff went on a long time, and it was Molina who blinked.
   7. Win one for Agrippa (haplo53) Posted: December 30, 2009 at 01:24 AM (#3424341)
As somebody in the other thread said, Ken Davidoff is suggesting that reports of an impending two-year deal for Molina are inaccurate.
   8. Freeballin' (Tales of Met Power) Posted: December 30, 2009 at 01:29 AM (#3424346)
Molina's been about a 2 WAR player the last couple of years. That has value, even if he's slow.
   9. starving to death with a full STEAGLES Posted: December 30, 2009 at 01:37 AM (#3424352)


Wtf do you care so much?
i'd like to see the career projection, for 1. he signed for 3 years, while the guy he's replacing got 1, mark derosa got 2, and adrian beltre is still on the market. derosa got a TO, feliz got a TO, and i don't think it's at all unreasonable to request that polanco get one as well.

as for what i'll be looking for, i'm wondering about how it'll see his plate discipline progressing since he started his career barely ever taking a walk, saw a boost during his first tenure in philly, and has been mediocre at the skill over the last 3 seasons while also seeing his batting average drop from .341 to .307 to .285.


actually, looking into all this kinda makes me want to crawl in a hole. the only way he'll be worth his contract is if he hits .300 each year, but if he doesn't get that, his OBP will be in the .340 range at best, while his isoP has never been better than .158. considering the consistency of his isoD, if his BA drops to .275, his best possible outcome looks to be a .275/.330/.430 type line. and if he does that, or worse, the next two years, that third is gonna be ugly. then there's the buyout.
   10. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 30, 2009 at 01:47 AM (#3424356)
Molina's been about a 2 WAR player the last couple of years. That has value, even if he's slow.

I don't think WAR takes baserunning into account and WAR doesn't measure catcher defense. Earlier in his career, Molina's defense probably was enough to compensate for anything he gave up on the basepaths but I don't know if that's true anymore.

I'm pretty much with Lassus on this point even though rationally it's not that ridiculous a move. But I can't say I am going to enjoy wathcing him play baseball.
   11. Posada Posse Posted: December 30, 2009 at 01:53 AM (#3424361)
Michelin Man


I'll bite; who's this? Smoky Burgess or somebody?
   12. zenbitz Posted: December 30, 2009 at 02:08 AM (#3424372)
Mets fans will probably enjoy Molina as much as Giants fans enjoyed Benitez.
   13. Dr. House Posted: December 30, 2009 at 02:44 AM (#3424393)
Molina's been about a 2 WAR player the last couple of years. That has value, even if he's slow.


Like Russlan said, WAR doesn't include defense or baserunning. BPro has him at -4.5 runs on the basepaths in 2009 (-7.1 in 2008). The following article (http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/2009/10/13/1082419/2009-catcher-defense-filling-in) has him at -3.4 runs on defense in 2009. Subtract that from his +18 RAR and you have a 1 WAR player in 2009.

It's a pretty bad idea to bring in a mid-30s catcher on a multi-year deal coming off of consecutive 1 WAR seasons. I really hope they hold the line at 1 year or walk away. Either way I'd walk away.
   14. Artie Ziff Posted: December 30, 2009 at 03:56 AM (#3424437)
Not a bad day at all for Mets fans. Killer day for Sox Nation with Bay finally gone. Molina's 20 or so home runs and Bay's presence in the middle of the lineup may be enough to swing the division New York's way. Slightly.
   15. Walt Davis Posted: December 30, 2009 at 04:18 AM (#3424451)
I'd love to see the Ziffbot's HoF ballot. Morris is a given and Raines has a shot but I'm wondering what the really crazy one would be -- Baines? Karros? Segui?
   16. Ziggy Posted: December 30, 2009 at 05:50 AM (#3424489)
Tango has a discussion of Polanco, hop over to his blog if you want to see it.
   17. Something Other Posted: December 30, 2009 at 08:17 AM (#3424535)
Like Russlan said, WAR doesn't include defense or baserunning. BPro has him at -4.5 runs on the basepaths in 2009 (-7.1 in 2008). The following article (http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/2009/10/13/1082419/2009-catcher-defense-filling-in) has him at -3.4 runs on defense in 2009. Subtract that from his +18 RAR and you have a 1 WAR player in 2009.

It's a pretty bad idea to bring in a mid-30s catcher on a multi-year deal coming off of consecutive 1 WAR seasons. I really hope they hold the line at 1 year or walk away. Either way I'd walk away.
All of this, and less. Dock Molina the standard half a win for age-related decline and you have a ballplayer who projects to be worth half a win in 2010, and replacement level in 2011. $10-12 million for half a win?

I know you need to keep the baseball from rolling to the backstop but this is a very, very poor signing.
   18. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 30, 2009 at 09:40 AM (#3424550)
I'll bite; who's this? Smoky Burgess or somebody?


I think his name is "Bibby". It's a reference to an early ad, where he was drinking a beer stein full of nails and screws without being punctured, accompanied by the phrase "Nunc est bibendum" ("Now it is time to drink").
   19. Win one for Agrippa (haplo53) Posted: December 30, 2009 at 01:25 PM (#3424582)
This morning Heyman also said nothing is imminent with the Mets and Molina.
   20. Rafael Bellylard: Built like a Panda. Posted: December 31, 2009 at 04:09 PM (#3425414)
This morning Heyman also said nothing is imminent with the Mets and Molina.


Apparently Molina needs a new agent.
   21. There are no words... (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: January 12, 2010 at 06:19 PM (#3435568)
Still waiting...and NOT for Polanco...
   22. There are no words... (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: January 19, 2010 at 07:19 PM (#3441254)
1 week later, and still...
   23. Banta Posted: January 19, 2010 at 07:27 PM (#3441260)
I was thinking about bumping this thread too, Charlie...
   24. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: January 19, 2010 at 07:32 PM (#3441265)
Ha, I saw this and I thought, "finally."
   25. Lassus Posted: January 19, 2010 at 07:36 PM (#3441275)
I can only pedal so fast. Soon, my dingy metal Molina-retardant alchemic steam-engine machine will fail and this deal will sadly occur.

I have a backup plan in place, but no one wants to see that happen.
   26. The Essex Snead Posted: January 19, 2010 at 07:46 PM (#3441292)
I saw someone today (Heyman?) tweet about Molina rejecting the Mets' offer.

Keep hope alive!
   27. PreservedFish Posted: January 19, 2010 at 07:48 PM (#3441299)
I am nervous that the more times this thread gets bumped, the further we push it towards truth.
   28. Win one for Agrippa (haplo53) Posted: January 19, 2010 at 10:03 PM (#3441464)
Bengie signs... with the Giants. One year, $4.5m.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/01/giants-resign-bengie-molina-to-oneyear-deal.html
   29. JoeHova Posted: January 19, 2010 at 10:06 PM (#3441468)
Congratulations Mets fans! Also, I thought Posey was supposed to be ready. Why would SF block him like this? I guess it's only one year and Posey is only 23 but it certainly would be more fun to follow him than Molina.
   30. PreservedFish Posted: January 19, 2010 at 10:10 PM (#3441472)
BURN THE LIST
   31. Orange & Blue Velvet Posted: January 19, 2010 at 10:10 PM (#3441475)
I'm dancing right now.
   32. Alex_Lewis Posted: January 19, 2010 at 10:15 PM (#3441482)
WHAT THE HELL?
   33. Flynn Posted: January 19, 2010 at 10:17 PM (#3441483)
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO.

I am rooting for mayhem this year. It's seriously in the best interests of the team that they stink this year and Sabean gets canned. Considering all of the good pieces on the team are young there's no reason why they can't be good in 2011 under a GM who is not a ####### moron.
   34. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: January 19, 2010 at 10:17 PM (#3441484)
Congratulations, Lassus.

So what do the Mets do at that position? Sign Barajas? Or throw Josh Thole in the deep end and hope he swims?

I gotta admit, a one year deal at 4.5 million wouldn't have upset me that much. It's likely that Molina is better than the Thole/Santos combination in 2009, even if he is unbearable to watch.
   35. Lassus Posted: January 19, 2010 at 11:35 PM (#3441599)
I credit my earlier geeky reference to steampunk as responsible for this victory. They were scared of my clanking machinery.

I barely even care now who plays catcher, now, really. Sad, but true. It's likely to be someone worse, even, but I feel satisfied that this small moral victory of even one fewer GIDP has been achieved.

I just want the season to start.
   36. Freeballin' (Tales of Met Power) Posted: January 19, 2010 at 11:51 PM (#3441621)
Lassus's threats have finally paid off.

And Dan needs a higher standard for posting incendiary rumors to the Transaction Oracle.
   37. JPWF13 Posted: January 20, 2010 at 12:05 AM (#3441646)
It's likely that Molina is better than the Thole/Santos combination in 2009, even if he is unbearable to watch.


No, it's likely that 2010 Molina is MUCH worse than Thole/Santos 2009, but then again Thole (.321/.356/.396 in 2009) and Santos (.260/.296/.391 in 2009) are likely to be worse in 2010 too...
   38. Freeballin' (Tales of Met Power) Posted: January 20, 2010 at 12:13 AM (#3441658)
GOd Santos is terrible. It is amazing that he is employed at all, much less playing major league baseball.
   39. Lassus Posted: January 20, 2010 at 12:37 AM (#3441677)
What was the average OPS for catchers all across baseball last year? Not really that I think Santos was better than that, I just want to see the figure and I don't quite have the BBRef skills to do it.
   40. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: January 20, 2010 at 12:45 AM (#3441684)
I meant that Molina would be better than Thole/Santos in 2010. I completely forgot about Blanco.

The average catcher hits about .255/.320/.400, Lassus.


If I were more confident in Santos' ability to repeat last season, he wouldn't be a horrible stopgap. It's just that I am not confident that he can do so.
   41. Srul Itza Posted: January 20, 2010 at 12:49 AM (#3441687)
According to Baseball Prospectus, the triple slash line for catchers in 2009 (BA/OBP/SLB) was .253/.323/.393, for an OPS of .716.

The way to find it is to go to EqA, and scroll down to "Position Totals"
   42. JPWF13 Posted: January 20, 2010 at 12:51 AM (#3441690)
What was the average OPS for catchers all across baseball last year?


American League 88
National League 86
Major League Baseball 87

using ESPN's splits

IOW all else being equal a catcher hitting an 80 doesn't hurt you nearly as much as a 1B hitting 95 (The AVERAGE 1B in 2009 was at 120) A catcher hitting 70 doesn't hurt you anymore than a 1B hitting 95 does.

Which is why the Mets' [apparent] obsession with getting Molina rather than someone like LaRoche made no sense
   43. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: January 20, 2010 at 01:00 AM (#3441697)
To a certain extent, I do think a catcher's ability to call a game is important, especially with a young staff. I am not sure how good or bad Molina is at that.

Is Delgado going to be a Met? Because if he isn't, I am pretty upset the Mets weren't ever linked with LaRoche.
   44. Lassus Posted: January 20, 2010 at 01:03 AM (#3441699)
Thanks, Srul.

I agree about Molina vs. LaRoche. I also agree that Santos isn't good.

Ultimately, it just was a mission of principle for me, I just didn't want to see an old lumbering catcher, and one that we were looking to pay for two damn years. Watch Molina put up an .828 this year, just to spite me.
   45. JPWF13 Posted: January 20, 2010 at 01:19 AM (#3441714)
Is Delgado going to be a Met? Because if he isn't, I am pretty upset the Mets weren't ever linked with LaRoche.


I think Minaya wants Delgado, and was going to wait for the scouting reports on him before looking elsewhere, well he's playing now, but from what I've read what little mobility around the bag he had before is gone...
so what is Minaya to do?
I assume plan A is/was Delgado
Plan B is/was ????
Plan C is platoon Murphy/Carter and pray Ike develops real fast
   46. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: January 20, 2010 at 01:43 AM (#3441729)
Can you really put Castillo and Delgado in the same lineup for 2010? I really don't think you can.
   47. I Love LA (OFF) Posted: January 20, 2010 at 02:34 AM (#3441749)
I like Torrealba. Let's get him.
   48. Freeballin' (Tales of Met Power) Posted: January 20, 2010 at 02:35 AM (#3441750)
I like Torrealba.


Why?
   49.     Hey Gurl Posted: January 20, 2010 at 02:40 AM (#3441752)
His name is fun to say?
   50. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: January 20, 2010 at 02:50 AM (#3441760)
I don't think Torrealba will sign with the Mets considering what happened the last time they tried to make a deal.
   51. PreservedFish Posted: January 20, 2010 at 03:33 AM (#3441782)
Plan C is platoon Murphy/Carter


Murphy/Tatis
   52. JPWF13 Posted: January 20, 2010 at 06:07 PM (#3442262)
Murphy/Tatis


what's the difference?
   53. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: January 20, 2010 at 06:32 PM (#3442294)
Murphy and Carter both hit lefthanded.
   54. JPWF13 Posted: January 20, 2010 at 07:24 PM (#3442335)
so what was the point of...
oh nevermind
   55. Tripon Posted: July 01, 2010 at 02:23 AM (#3575684)
Bengie Molina traded.
   56. Accent Shallow Posted: July 01, 2010 at 02:42 AM (#3575700)
Bengie Molina traded.

Man, remember when the Rangers had enviable catching depth?

And the Posey era begins in SF.
   57. Steve Phillips' Hot Cougar (DrStankus) Posted: July 01, 2010 at 04:52 AM (#3575778)
@55

I am so very happy. Even after a sweepby the blue

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