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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Sunday, December 03, 2006

Mets - Signed Glavine

New York Mets - Re-signed P Tom Glavine to a 1-year contract.

This comes in at $10.5 million, which is very reasonable for a single-year deal.  Glavine’s not a Cy Young candidate anymore, but he’s a good bet to be healthy and eat innings (and pitch well enough that you actually want him eat innings).  Someone like Schmidt would still be huge for the Mets, but keeping Glavine makes not getting one of the top pitchers on the market from being an unmitigated disaster.  The player option for 2008 becomes available at 160 innings, being $9 million if he just pitches 160 innings and going up to $13 million depending on how many additional innings he pitches.

2007 ZiPS Projection - Tom Glavine
——————————————————————————————-
        W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA
——————————————————————————————-
Projection 14   9 31 31 195 198   85 19 64 107 3.92
2008     11   9 30 30 185 188   85 22 63 119 4.14
——————————————————————————————-
Opt. (15%) 17   8 34 34 220 208   79 16 62 127 3.23
Pes. (15%)  9 10 26 26 158 171   83 20 60 84 4.73
———————————————————————————————

 

 

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 03, 2006 at 02:38 AM | 20 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: December 03, 2006 at 03:42 AM (#2250358)
I'm a little surprised by Glavine's projection. He doesn't have the age or the peripherals that I would expect to project well. Anyway, those numbers look pretty good to me. Even the pessimistic line, though it certainly would be disappointing, would be far from disasterous.

This rotation is far from a sure thing, but I am liking the way it looks right now.
   2. Raoul Duke Posted: December 03, 2006 at 03:44 AM (#2250360)
He's left-handed and has a pulse (as well as a coupla Cy Youngs) so . . .
Tony Fossas, here we come.
   3. "Andruw for HoF" sure died down Posted: December 03, 2006 at 03:48 AM (#2250366)
I'm surprised the pessimistic projection doesn't have him falling off the face of the earth - I can certainly see a one in five chance that Glavine's got a 6 ERA. I think the thing that's going to go is the walks, as I don't see him throwing stuff over the plate that often, and he's been real consistent with his HR allowed.
   4. 1k5v3L Posted: December 03, 2006 at 04:10 AM (#2250380)
I'm surprised the pessimistic projection doesn't have him falling off the face of the earth


It does include getting his teeth knocked in during a taxi ride from Shea.
   5. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 03, 2006 at 04:35 AM (#2250401)
I can certainly see a one in five chance that Glavine's got a 6 ERA.

Why exactly? That's a pretty ridiculous statement to me.
   6. JPWF13 Posted: December 03, 2006 at 05:13 AM (#2250415)
Why exactly? That's a pretty ridiculous statement to me.


Ever see him pitch?
He's got nothing, absolutely nothing. If he lost even more off his stuff (which may violate the laws of physics) batters should be able to tee off of him like a beer league softball leaguer
   7. Kevin Sweet Child Romine (aco) Posted: December 03, 2006 at 05:22 AM (#2250418)
Glavine never seemed to have any stuff, even when he was putting up Cy Young numbers. I've never been able to figure out how he's succeeded at the level he has.
   8. jss Posted: December 03, 2006 at 10:37 PM (#2250867)
Didn't the Mets have an $11 option? Why not just pick it up and not have to sign him for 2008?
   9. If theres a bunt w'all remember twas back in ol 92 Posted: December 04, 2006 at 04:50 AM (#2251053)
How long before the repeated "Glavine 2007 Option Explanation" becomes part of BTF lore?
   10. Sam M. Posted: December 04, 2006 at 05:06 AM (#2251066)
Didn't the Mets have an $11 option? Why not just pick it up and not have to sign him for 2008?

I'll take it this one.

They had a $14M option; actually, it was mutual options. Glavine had a player option first, which he declined. Then the Mets declined theirs. This had all been agreed in advance when the options were created during the middle of the 2006 season. At that time, Glavine agreed to defer some salary to save the Mets some dollars, which they felt they needed to free up to acquire somebody (can't remember who just now). In exchange, the Mets promised they would NOT exercise the option, so that Glavine would be free to decide in the off-season whether he wanted to return to Atlanta to be closer to his family as he finishes his career.

The Mets kept their word. It was also generally understood that, if Glavine decided to return to the Mets, they would compromise on a figure somewhere in between the option figures -- which is exactly what happened. Glavine, and his agent, repeatedly said in the last few days that the way the Mets handled it made a big difference in his thinking.
   11. baudib Posted: December 04, 2006 at 05:10 AM (#2251070)
How long before the repeated "Glavine 2007 Option Explanation" becomes part of BTF lore?


Right along with the Matsuzaka gambit (as in "Why don't the Red Sox outbid everyone on the posting and then fail to sign him, thus preventing the Yankees from getting him?").
   12. DL from MN Posted: December 04, 2006 at 06:56 PM (#2251387)
The 300th win could mean serious $$ to the Mets bottom line. If he hits the pessimistic projection he's underpaid. Great deal for the Mets.
   13. Joey B. Posted: December 04, 2006 at 07:01 PM (#2251391)
Glavine never seemed to have any stuff, even when he was putting up Cy Young numbers. I've never been able to figure out how he's succeeded at the level he has.

Pinpoint accuracy, combined for many years with a strike zone generous on the outside corner.
   14. bibigon Posted: December 04, 2006 at 07:08 PM (#2251399)
The 300th win could mean serious $$ to the Mets bottom line.


Explain.
   15. bibigon Posted: December 04, 2006 at 07:11 PM (#2251404)
Pinpoint accuracy, combined for many years with a strike zone generous on the outside corner.


That's Maddux - Glavine walks a boatload of people.
   16. AJMcCringleberry Posted: December 04, 2006 at 07:23 PM (#2251416)
3 per 9 is a boatload?
   17. HowardMegdal Posted: December 04, 2006 at 07:30 PM (#2251420)
Remember Elian Gonzalez?
   18. NBarnes Posted: December 04, 2006 at 11:19 PM (#2251608)
I'm really curious to see what Maddux gets, now. If I were a GM, I'd give Maddux a year for 10 without hesitation, in this pitching market.
   19. DL from MN Posted: December 05, 2006 at 12:20 AM (#2251658)
> Explain.

I have to explain sellouts, merchandising and TV ratings?

Avg home attendance: 43,327
Shea stadium capacity: 55,601

12,000 X $50 = $600,000

And that's if Glavine only sells out one game. I know the win could come on the road but every start he has after 299 will have good attendance.
   20. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: December 05, 2006 at 12:29 AM (#2251664)
That's Maddux - Glavine walks a boatload of people.

True, but he's still got good control. He just chooses to throw balls until he finds someone who will bite.

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