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Tuesday, February 01, 2005

Mets - Signed Stewart

New York Mets - Signed P Scott Stewart to a minor-league contract.

Stewart had an abysmal 2004 season but his earlier years were all fairly swiggity-sweet. His main problem at getting time will be pushing aside The Run Fairy (if his 2004 doesn’t lose him a major league job, what would?) and the Mets didn’t sign Koo to have him lose out to an NRI. Stewart’s left-handed and a lot bigger than Scott Strickland and nothing alike as a pitcher. Still, I won’t know who’s who by May.

Stewart, Scott
———————————————————————-
W L G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA
———————————————————————-
3 3 62 0 58 55 25 5 22 52 3.88

Dan Szymborski Posted: February 01, 2005 at 03:32 PM | 51 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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1. TugMcGraw Posted: February 01, 2005 at 03:56 PM (#1117695)

I like the signing, from the vantage point of Minaya still culling the wires and picking up players that could be useful instead of looking towards trades.

Anything that moves the Mets away from Hernandez and trades of Cameron/Floyd for relief pitchers is a very, very good thing.

2. Sam M. Posted: February 01, 2005 at 04:49 PM (#1117770)

Bad as Stewart evidently was in 2004, he has to be better than Heredia. He also has the advantage of being a former Expo, and thus presumably well-known to Minaya.

The guy this is really bad news for is Blake McGinley. His already-thin hopes of making the roster now depend on a whole lot of guys getting a whole lot of injured.

3. There are no words... (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: February 01, 2005 at 05:35 PM (#1117861)

Or severely sucking...

4. Sean McNally Posted: February 01, 2005 at 05:37 PM (#1117869)

The Run Fairy is guaranteed more than a million dollars this year. Gosh the Yankees were dumb, but just a shade smarter than the Mets to traded actual goods for him.

5. bunyon Posted: February 01, 2005 at 05:41 PM (#1117879)

For some reason, David Stewart came to mind when I saw the headline. I thought maybe they'd brought him in as assistant GM III or something.

6. Toolsy McClutch Posted: February 01, 2005 at 06:03 PM (#1117936)

Naw, didn't you get the memo? We're all holding Dave back because he's black.

7. There are no words... (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: February 01, 2005 at 06:12 PM (#1117966)

...but just a shade smarter than the Mets to traded actual goods for him.

If you consider Mike Stanton "actual goods," then good luck to ya...

8. Sam M. Posted: February 01, 2005 at 06:19 PM (#1117985)

The Run Fairy is guaranteed more than a million dollars this year.

But the Mets saved about that much in the exchange of sucky lefty relievers. Sadly, however, I suspect they aren't going to see it as $1M saved and just cut their losses by releasing TRF. The upside is that they do have McGinley and now Stewart around in AAA when the inevitable happens and they realize they need to dump TRF.

9. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: February 01, 2005 at 06:32 PM (#1118028)

Stewart's BIPA was an extremely high .437 last season. His Q and D DIPS was a respectable 4.72 last season even though he gave 1.73 HR/9. If you believe homer rates are somewhat random, Stewart is due to have a good year in 2005.

10. TugMcGraw Posted: February 01, 2005 at 07:05 PM (#1118141)

who is the Run Fairy? I'm the last one to join the party ... missed all the jokes from earlier.

11. JC in DC Posted: February 01, 2005 at 07:11 PM (#1118158)

Heredia. There's no cake left either.

12. Johnny Two Screens Posted: February 01, 2005 at 07:22 PM (#1118172)

Stanton > Heredia

therefore actual goods.

13. Rob Base Posted: February 01, 2005 at 07:27 PM (#1118184)

I'm tired of explaining this. Stanton needed to go. He's an ineffective pitcher, part of the kabal problem, and the fans hate him. He has a no trade clause and would only likely agree to go to one team. The fact that the Mets got to recoup a million bucks of his salary in a negotiating position like that is impressive. And I'll believe TRF in the Mets' bullpen when i see it. Do you think Minaya signed Stewart to light a fire under Heredia?

14. I Love LA (OFF) Posted: February 01, 2005 at 07:32 PM (#1118198)

What an awesome signing. Not only are Stewart's peripherals wayyy better than TRF's, he also comes with the "Proven Veteran" seal of appproval and the "Career Saves" the Mets' love so much.

BTW, are the Mets going to get a guy who has a chance of getting both left-handers and right-handers out this year?

15. WillieMays Haze Posted: February 01, 2005 at 07:35 PM (#1118203)

Wow. Hey OFF, isnt this signing right on cue with all my complaining the other day that the Mets need another lefty?

did I spell cue right? is it que or Q? What the hell is it?

16. Francoeur Sans Gages (AlouGoodbye) Posted: February 01, 2005 at 07:38 PM (#1118208)

There is no need to light a fire under Heredia. The man is already an arsonist.

17. DEF: NPW (WWRJD) Posted: February 01, 2005 at 07:54 PM (#1118254)

Stewart had elbow surgery prior to the start of the 2004 season, and never really got into form. If he's healthy (a big "if", I know), he's an effective reliever against both RHP and LHP.

18. WillieMays Haze Posted: February 01, 2005 at 08:07 PM (#1118281)

I think it is fair to say that the Mets have the MOST injury question marks on their roster right now of any team...in the National League. Maybe even in the majors. I'm too lazy to look up all the rosters right now, but I'll get around to it eventually (or I'm sure someone else will) and prove the point.

But off the top of my head, it really seems like the Mets have the most players for which you would say "IF he can stay healthy.." or "IF he doesnt get injured like he usually does.."

19. Sam M. Posted: February 01, 2005 at 08:13 PM (#1118291)

it really seems like the Mets have the most players for which you would say "IF he can stay healthy.." or "IF he doesnt get injured like he usually does.."

Yup. Mike Piazza, Cliff Floyd, Jose Reyes, Scott Strickland, Orber Moreno, and now Stewart. Then add in Mike Cameron and Kazuo Matsui, neither of whom is "injury prone" but both of whom are coming back from significant injuries in 2004.

Old or young, the Mets have guys who must stay off the DL if they're going to win. The bullpen in particular could be one season-long revolving door between Shea and the disabled list.

20. I Love LA (OFF) Posted: February 01, 2005 at 08:53 PM (#1118374)

While certainly the success of the season will depend on the health of several players, I think that for the first time in years, the Mets will be more prepared to handle injuries:

Phillips [Castro]: Had a horrible 04, but he's still a pretty good offensive backstop. He could be starting for a bunch of teams. Castro was a decent prospect a few years ago. He is excellent defensively, can walk a little and has some pop.

Cairo/Woodward [Keppinger]: Cairo had a nice season last year both offensively and defensively. He's a huge upgrade over Joe Mac. I don't know if the Mets will have 2 MIF, but between Woodward, Keppinger, Marlon Anderson, D. Garcia, I say we have okay depth. I don't expect McEwing to make the club.

Valent/Diaz [Calloway]: Not bad, not bad at all. Both of these guys might be stretched as starters, but they are excellent insurance for Floyd's aching body and the Cameron-to-RF project. Calloway ain't much, but he's got to be better than Ice.

Galarraga [Brazell]: Considering how awful our starting 1b is, this isn't exactly great depth, but still beats Todd F. Zeile.

21. There are no words... (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: February 01, 2005 at 08:58 PM (#1118384)

22. Joshemy Posted: February 01, 2005 at 08:59 PM (#1118389)

I don't expect McEwing to make the club.

You optimistic man. I expect both TRF and McEwing on the opening day roster.

I'm a wildly pessimistic child.

23. J. Cross Posted: February 01, 2005 at 09:05 PM (#1118398)

I hope Stewart makes the team even as a second lefty. He's better than the other options.

24. zack Posted: February 01, 2005 at 09:24 PM (#1118448)

So if you're Minaya, how do you build the bullpen?

Looper
Moreno
Parra
Stewart
Koo
Strickland

And starting in the minors though they probably don't deserve it:

Bell
McGinley
DeJean

That's not such a bad bullpen. It's fairly no-name, but I can see them getting outs. And it has even guys that when one or two of them has the typical reliever "bad year" there are replacements. Unfortunately I bet TRF and DeJean get roster spots. Anyone I'm forgetting?

(What the hell happened to Royce Ring's K-rate when he became a Met?)

25. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: February 01, 2005 at 09:39 PM (#1118479)

Do you guys think that the Mets will only carry 12 or 11 pitchers next season?

I don't really care who starts the season in the bullpen. I just hope that the team doesn't waste a lot of time waiting to bring up the deserving guys in the minors if the the guys in the majors falter.

26. Sam M. Posted: February 01, 2005 at 09:42 PM (#1118482)

I'm pretty sure DeJean will start out in the majors and stay there. My guess?

Looper
DeJean
Heredia
Moreno
Koo
Strickland

Actually, I'd bet on one of Moreno/Strickland to start the year on the DL, replaced by Bell, probably, or maybe Fortunato. If Stewart shows anything like his pre-2004 form, and Heredia is TRF, then he has a shot at taking that spot.

27. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: February 01, 2005 at 09:49 PM (#1118498)

I actually like the Met Bullpen. Most of the guys are cheap enough that there isn't any reason to keep them around if they are terrible. There's also a lot of options in the minors to replace them.

28. Snowboy Posted: February 01, 2005 at 09:57 PM (#1118519)

So if you're Minaya, how do you build the bullpen?

Looper
Moreno
Parra
Stewart
Koo
Strickland

Jesus man, are you a Mets fan or a troll?
I'm neither, and I can see that's a horrible guess.
Use your head. Looper and the Korean chance Koo are the only guys there even on the 40 man roster! Remember, to add Stewart, Strickland, and Moreno you have to remove other guys from the 40 man. And if it's a veteran like DeJean, I doubt he accepts the minor league assignment, so don't plan on using him if you don't keep him out of spring training. As for Jose Parra, he's been signed by the Japanese League, so move on.

29. Snowboy Posted: February 01, 2005 at 10:00 PM (#1118528)

I apologize for my tone. Sorry about that.
Still a horrible guess.
And Stewart as a NRI is a good signing.

30. mgl Posted: February 01, 2005 at 10:06 PM (#1118541)

If you believe homer rates are somewhat random, Stewart is due to have a good year in 2005.

All rates are "somewhat random" because they are based on a sample of a player's true ability. How random they are is based on 2 things - sample size and the spread of skill in the population. Because the sample size of a homer rate is essentially the number of fly balls a pitcher allows (which is small in one season) there is going to be a lot of random variation from season to season even if a pitcher's true HR rate never changed.

That being said, Stewart has maintained a solid BB and K rate throughout his career. If not for a somewhat high HR rate (also throughout his career) he would be quite good. He is, though, a solid LOOGY type pitcher, even though around average overall. As with any LHP who is not very good at least overall, he needs to avoid pitching to RHB's as much as possible. That is one of the remaining "secret's" in baseball, BTW (sort of). LHP's and LHB's who are around average or worse need to avoid same side opponents as much as possible. As I've said before, even a really crummy RHP is better than a pitcher like Stewart when facing a RHB, and even a really, really crummy RHB is better than a batter like Womack versus a LHP...

31. I Love LA (OFF) Posted: February 01, 2005 at 10:07 PM (#1118544)

Snowboy does bring a good point about the 40 man roster shenanigans. A lot of the Mets projected relievers and bench players are not on it, and space will have to be made for them. I'm hoping McEwing, TRF, Calloway, Lydon and maybe even Ginter are gone after spring training.

32. Most Favored Haitian Status Posted: February 01, 2005 at 10:17 PM (#1118568)

It's funny that the Mets just signed Eric Junge to a minor league deal just weeks after a friend of mine slept with him.

Brush with mediocrity.

33. Sam M. Posted: February 01, 2005 at 10:22 PM (#1118584)

A lot of the Mets projected relievers and bench players are not on it, and space will have to be made for them.

If they need a script:

Felix (to Willie Randolph): You wanted to see me?

Randolph: Yeah, Felix shut the door...

(Felix does. Remains standing. He can see it coming.)

Randolph: This is the toughest job a manager has, Felix ... (deep breath) But the organization has decided to make a change--we're releasing you from your contract...

(Close on Felix -- Silent. Motionless. Empty.)

Randolph: Oh, and on your way out, would you send Joe McEwing in, please?

34. Joshemy Posted: February 01, 2005 at 10:23 PM (#1118593)

Ginter? I sorta like him. I think he would make a decent ROOGY, not that we don't have ten million of those already. I think they should get Seo off the 40 man before Ginter, just because I don't see Seo and Peterson ever co-existing.

35. I Love LA (OFF) Posted: February 01, 2005 at 10:24 PM (#1118595)

LHP's and LHB's who are around average or worse need to avoid same side opponents as much as possible.

Is this true of RHP too? If so, maybe the blind squirrel another nut:

Stewart = LOOGY
Strickland = ROOGY
Koo = LOOGY
TRF = awful but "better" against LHB
Looper = somewhat ROOGY-ish
DeJean = a lot better against RHB.

Moreno is really the only guy who looks to be decent against both RHB and LHB and that is based on a ML sample size of less than 50 ip [aka meaningless].

36. J. Cross Posted: February 01, 2005 at 10:24 PM (#1118598)

Stewart has allowed 19 HR in 181 career IP. Is that high? I think the average team gave up something like 180 HR in 1450 IP. That's 1.12 HR/9 compared to Stewarts career 0.94 HR/9. There's not much data there but it doesn't look like he's been homer happy.

His 3-yr. splits:

v. R, 317 AB, 60 K, 36 BB, 11 HR
v. L, 204 AB, 62 K, 11 BB, 3 HR

Those are mighty impressive numbers against lefties and pretty solid numbers against righties. Even his HR-rate v. R is essentially average. There's nothing there to indicate that he can't face righties but, then again, there's not enough data to demonstrate that he can.

37. Old Matt Posted: February 01, 2005 at 10:34 PM (#1118622)

It's funny that the Mets just signed Eric Junge to a minor league deal just weeks after a friend of mine slept with him.

I'm a big Junge fan, I saw him throw two years ago at Scranton and also happened to be at the Vet for his ML debut back in 2003.

He has really nice stuff, but the shoulder in injury he suffered at the beginning of last year looked to really hurt him.

He is, though, a solid LOOGY type pitcher, even though around average overall.

See, here's the problem with the Mets pen as it stands right now. There are too many one-batter pitchers. All three lefties (Koo, Heredia, Stewart) are all at best LOOGYs and Strickland will likely be reduced to ROOGY status.

That being said, carrying three of those pitchers is really going to put a strain on the remaining pitchers in the pen and needless to say, Randolph's potential maneuvers.

They need a lefty that can pitch to righties with average or even mediocre out rates...or even one that can throw effectively for more than two batters. They signed Matthews, he's a lefty that's been averaging around an inning or more per appearance and he may be worth a shot. But again, McGinley is sitting in the corner with the dunce cap on when he probably is the best answer as another lefty to compliment a LOOGY, whether it be Koo, Heredia or Stewart.

Right now the Mets will carry five lefties into camp out of 28 pitchers. That's fairly disturbing.

38. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: February 01, 2005 at 11:00 PM (#1118720)

Right now the Mets will carry five lefties into camp out of 28 pitchers. That's fairly disturbing.

Why?

39. zack Posted: February 01, 2005 at 11:04 PM (#1118729)

I wasn't saying that's how Minaya will build the bullpen, I'm saying that's what I would do if I were him.

Didn't realize Parra had gone. Is there a current list of 40 man rosters anywhere?

40. J. Cross Posted: February 01, 2005 at 11:06 PM (#1118737)

Mets relievers by ZiPS ERA

1. Looper, R, 3.51
2. Moreno, R, 3.53
3. Bell, R, 3.78
4. Stewart, L, 3.88
5. Ginter, R, 3.91
6. DeJean, R, 4.14
7. Strickland, R, 4.14
8. Seo, R, 4.47
9. Heredia, L, 4.72

Koo, L, unknown

It looks to me like the top 6: Looper, Moreno, Bell, Stewart, Ginter and DeJean would make a pretty good bullpen with Strickland getting the call if a reliever goes down and Seo coming up if they need a starter.

41. Sam M. Posted: February 01, 2005 at 11:07 PM (#1118741)

Right now the Mets will carry five lefties into camp out of 28 pitchers. That's fairly disturbing.

Why?

I count six, by the way: Glavine, Heredia, Stewart, McGinley, Koo, and Ring. Or is Ring not even coming to spring training?

42. Old Matt Posted: February 01, 2005 at 11:11 PM (#1118752)

Or is Ring not even coming to spring training?

I didn't count Ring or McGinley, they weren't even invited yet.

The five are: Glavine, Heredia, Stewart, Koo and Matthews.

43. J. Cross Posted: February 01, 2005 at 11:25 PM (#1118794)

Hopefully Stewart is the only one with the team in 2006.

44. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: February 01, 2005 at 11:56 PM (#1118864)

Didn't realize Parra had gone. Is there a current list of 40 man rosters anywhere?

mlb.com

Go to a team's main page and click roster on the top menu. Last year they also had a separate page for NRIs in addition to the 40 man roster that was updated fairly regularly, but I don't know if they have that up yet.

45. mgl Posted: February 02, 2005 at 12:56 AM (#1118972)

His (Stewart's) HR rate (per BF) is a bit above average over the last 4 years, including MLE's (around 22% of his TBF's have been in the minors).

You CANNOT use a player's actual splits to estimate what he will do versus same or opp side opponents, unless you have a HUGE sample versus each side (which you will never have with left relievers)!

Let me repeat!

You CANNOT use a player's actual splits to estimate what he will do versus same or opp side opponents!

That goes for batters and pitchers, especially for RHB's (most of you know why)!

46. J. Cross Posted: February 02, 2005 at 01:24 AM (#1119024)

Sure but Stewart doesn't have much data against righties OR lefties. What makes you think that he can't face righties? What's the typical platoon split for a LHP?

47. J. Cross Posted: February 02, 2005 at 01:28 AM (#1119033)

Should the actual platoon split of a LHPs be regressed more or less than that of a LHB? I'm assuming that there is some "platoon skill" for LHP unlike RHB.

48. mgl Posted: February 02, 2005 at 02:21 AM (#1119149)

Yes, there is some platoon skill for LHP and RHP and a small one for RHB's. The average RC (ERA or any other "runs" stat) platoon split for RHP's is 1.25. For LHP's, it is 1.31. For RHB's, it is 1.25 and for LHB's, it is 1.46. Those batter splits are for RC also and not for OPS. For OPS, take the square root of that (approx.).

Stewart's career platoon RC ratio is 1.21 (again, including minor league stats), which is a little less than average. After regressing, it is 1.25 (that is what we use to project his ERA versus RHB's and LHB's).

As far as how much regression, for RHB's, it takes 15000 combined (vLH plus vRH) PA's to regress 50%, for LHB's, it takes 2000, for RHP's, it takes 2000 and for LHP's, it takes 2000 as well.

So the "skill" (spread of talent) for platoon ratio for LHB's, and all pitchers (LH and RH) are about the same...

49. mgl Posted: February 02, 2005 at 02:22 AM (#1119154)

BTW, with pitchers, you can regress to markedly different population means if you account for their arm angles and types of pitches they throw...

50. Rob Base Posted: February 02, 2005 at 02:52 AM (#1119233)

I'm a RHB. So why do I keep screwing up at work?

51. Doug Sisk's alter ego Posted: February 02, 2005 at 04:49 AM (#1119389)

A) You may be asking yourself: But how does this bullpen construction affect (effect?) Frank Tanana?

B) Yeah, I'd listen if Omar called (hey, I had a 112 career ERA+ and 2 scoreless innings in 86 postseason!).

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Tuesday, February 01, 2005

Mets - Signed Stewart

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