Mets - Signed Valentin, El Duque
New York Mets - Signed 2B Jose Valentin to a 1-year contract and P Orlando Hernandez to a 2-year contract.
Valentin’s contract of $3.8 million comes with an option for 2008 which should vest as long as Valentin’s healthy. Hernandez’s contract comes in at a healthy $12 million.
This is what Branch Rickey meant by “year too late.” El Duque pitched enough to qualify for the ERA title for the first time since 2000 but was a little worse than league-average, though it was better than his 87 ERA+ for the White Sox in 2005. He’s also roughly 41 years old. Valentin’s nearly as old, 37 for 2007 and is coming off his best season since 2002. The contract for Valentin is probably a little better because if he’s awful, a very real possibility considering his stint for the Dodgers and his last season with the White Sox, he at least won’t make the vesting option.
Thumbs down. The Mets are the best team in the NL and this offseason is Minaya’s chance to really put a team together to murder the NL. Treading water will eventually bring the Mets back to the pack.
2007 ZiPS Projection - Jose Valentin
———————————————————————————————————
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG
———————————————————————————————————
Projection 344 47 77 18 2 13 47 34 86 4 .224 .295 .401
2008 285 34 63 16 1 9 33 28 75 4 .221 .295 .379
———————————————————————————————————
Opt. (15%) 420 69 105 23 4 21 72 48 96 7 .250 .330 .474
Pess. (15% 208 24 43 9 1 6 24 18 57 2 .207 .273 .346
———————————————————————————————————
2007 ZiPS Projection - Orlando Hernandez
——————————————————————————————-
W L G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA
——————————————————————————————-
Projection 8 8 22 22 118 117 61 18 48 101 4.65
2008 3 6 17 17 81 83 48 14 35 63 5.31
——————————————————————————————-
Opt. (15%) 12 9 28 28 159 149 71 19 55 136 4.02
Pess. (15% 5 11 21 21 96 107 66 19 45 77 6.19
———————————————————————————————
Dan Szymborski
Posted: November 15, 2006 at 02:22 PM |
56 comment(s)
Login to Bookmark
Related News:
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
1. Juan V Posted: November 15, 2006 at 03:10 PM (#2238422)Welcome to the wonderful, inflated market of Offseason 2006-07. Players hold the hammer, GMs are the nail. The Mets did well to hold the $$$ down to somewhat reasonable numbers, such that if El Duque just completely collapses, they can swallow the 2008 contract without it being a disaster.
I'm thinking another thing, but I don't want to set up Sam's next joke.
they can swallow the 2008 contract without it being a disaster.
They'll be done swallowing Green's contract by then.
$50,000 per inning by my calculation.
If the market value of a below-replacement level player is $400,000, I find it hard to get too bent out of shape with these contracts.
Duque was better than average at Shea. He had a 106 ERA+, a K/BB ratio of nearly 3, and a decent WHIP of 1.23. The concern is innings, but he did pitch over 160 in all of 2006. If Duque can put up his 2006 Met numbers in 2007 over 125+ IP, $6M isn't outrageous.
Valentin was terrible in 2005, but probably a league average player in 2004 with his defense and a very good player overall from 2001-2003. And in 2006, he was one of the better 2B in baseball.
The reality of the market is that league average players are going to be getting a couple of million easily. These are players with some element of risk, but they are also players with decent upside and the contracts aren't off the wall. It's not like someone wasn't going to give a 2 year deal to El Duque or pay Valentin close to what he got. And these players have value.
I really think we need to get into the habit of holding off on grading these signings until at least after most free agents are signed. The market changes on us pretty drastically from year to year, it's a mistake to assume that we're on the same scale as before.
On the other hand, I don't like the El Duque deal at all. Old and injury prone isn't what the rotation needs, it is what the rotation needs to get away from.
You don't seriously believe Minaya's stopping here, do you, Dan?
The water-treading should stop at Glavine & Bradford. By the time those 2 get finalized, Boras should be complete with the Matsuzaka negotiations and be ready to have Zito sign somewhere.
My utility around here is going to sink rapidly if people stop setting up my jokes, you know.
The water-treading should stop at Glavine & Bradford.
I have a feeling that the next sound you hear on both of those may be "Glub, glub." There's even a hint in the Newsday article this morning that the Mets may be considering picking up Glavine's option. You know what that tells me? They know full well he's leaning towards Atlanta, and their only hope of keeping him may be to take a $14M hit.
The El Duque deal is different. Personally, I think he's still got the stuff to be a 100 ERA+ guy and even if he pitchs just 200 innings over the next 2 seasons, this deal won't be that bad . I expect the Mets to sign/acquire two more pitchers before the offseason's done. That means they have the depth to absorb an injury to El Duque.
If Valentin gets 600 ABs and El Duque is counted on for 30-35 starts in 07-08 with no backup plan, that is a problem. I'm just not seeing that as likely- nor am I seeing a better way to spend this money on 2B, or SP/swingman (go ahead, show me a pitcher as likely to put up league average innings who wouldn't cost more money, more years and block the young pitchers). I'm huessing by the end of the signing period, it won't be possible.
Bell always put up the numbers in AAA but never really had success in the majors and there's really no place for him. I wonder if this means the Mets are more likely to keep Heilman but I don't think it does. It's not like the Mets could have counted on Bell to step in anyway.
Ben Johnson looks like a guy who could be a decent platoon guy/defensive replacements. His ZR in the outfield all look good but he hasn't played a lot. He's hit .244/.348/.462 in just 78 ABs against lefties.
Put him down for 210 infield hits in '07...
Sometimes, I'm a very strange duck...
Johnson is AAAA fodder, at best.
IMHO, the Mets are still an outfielder short. A good outfielder short. This trade doesn't change that at all. I'm not sure signing Dave Roberts would either, of course. But he does give you very nice OBPs, and there's a lot to be said for that. He's certainly a useful player, that's for sure.
No disagreement Sam, but pre-Johnson, they were arguably at least two usable outfielders short, particularly from the right side. Think Johnson would've gotten postseason at bats?
"Ben Johnson better than Xavier Nady? You, my friend, are smoking some funny grass."
Anyone have Johnson defensive numbers? Fact is, the defensive gap might make Johnson better than Nady- though I like Nady quite a bit.
El Duque is a steal in my book. $3 million per year for a guy that might be your #3 starter when the season opens is a good move. He still has great stuff and a great K rate, so if he's healthy I like his chances of making quality starts. The salary is low enough that if he sucks or gets injured you can bench him, release him, or make him a longman/ROOGY without being embarrassed. And this contract is going to look brilliant when we see what Gil Meche signs for.
Valentin is the most questionable move to me, a .235 average seems likely next year. This one has to wait on other moves. If he's hitting 8th and gets help from Tony Graffanino against lefties, it's acceptable. But I certainly wouldn't trust that he can lock up the position all by himself for an entire season.
$6M/year, not $3M.
He's a steal at $3 Mil. He's still a good value at $6.
I like the Stache deal (though I'm not a big fan of the vesting option, but if he sucks he probably won't reach it anyway). Even if he hits like his projection, a 700 OPS in Shea and great D isn't bad for a second baseman.
I’m not crazy about the second year for El Duque, but the cost is not a concern for the Mets, yet not really out of line with the market considering it is comparable to the Moyer deal. It’s also an effective hedge against getting held up by Boras et al in negotiations.
My concern is that Omar is not taking advantage of the Mets “attractiveness” to free agents. They have money coming out the wazoo with SNY, they just won 97 games, they have a great clubhouse and front office. Klapisch was just talking about this with Beningo; a couple of years ago, they had to pay a premium for FA’s and they couldn’t get Henry Blanco to come here – now agents are lining up to align their clients with the Mets. He says Soriano wants to come here, but the Mets are not biting. Exploding market or not, the Mets should not have to settle for Valentin if they wanted Lugo, or Green/Floyd/Milledge if they want Soriano. And they should win a bidding war for Zito. (They’d have won Matsu if Henry didn’t go ape-spit.)
Me gusta tocar El Duque, me gusta tocar Jose
Los mariachi me acompañan cuando canto mi canción
Byrnes: Cero
Minaya: Uno
Adkins has no upside. Johnson might be able to do a decent job someday, but if he's your starting OFer, that ain't looking too good for your team.
Agree with your other point - Valentin and El Duque are insurance moves. So would bring Feliciano and Bradford back.
Look, you can't just go ahead and try to bring in new additions without consolidating the base first. The Mets came into the offseason with a lot of holes. Omar had to make sure that he filled in at least some of them before he starts his aggressive moves, otherwise he's working from a disadvantaged position. So yes, he overpaid a year for both Stache and Duque, but he had to. Otherwise, the offseason had the potential to be a disaster.
After he missed with D-Mat, and realizing that Glavine was not a certain return, and realizing that the bidding for Zito will start at 70M, he had to bring Duque back. The Mets could have been left out on a lurch.
Once we secure Feliciford, then the aggressive phase of the offseason begins. Then we can really start to assess this winter for the Mets.
I don't know that it's worth addressing, but obviously, there was a market for a very good defensive 2B who had a 800 OPS, and a league average, versatile pitcher with solid periphs and a top K rate. And I suspect you know that, which is why I hesitate to point that out.
But see today's Cleveland Plain Dealer:
http://www.cleveland.com/sports/plaindealer/index.ssf?/base/sports/1163680313249630.xml&coll=2
HTH
Gah.
The Mets and infielder Damion Easley have reportedly come to terms on a one-year, $850,000 contract.
There were better options out there, but in a limited role, Easley can still contribute. The 37-year-old will take Chris Woodward's roster spot and should serve as Jose Valentin's platoon partner against lefties. He had a 763 OPS in 106 at-bats versus southpaws last season and an 1115 mark in 51 at-bats in 2005.
Source: FOXSports.com
This is not a terrible move. Easley can hit lefties, can play 2b, 3b or even ss in a pinch, and he's the same age as Valentin so the two of them can die of old age, together, in their sleep, peacefully, during the second week of spring training. Valentin/Easley will be a fairly serviceable platoon at 2b for the Mets.
It's only a shame that Easley wasn't type B free agent so the Dbacks could get a draft pick out of this...
All in all, Omar could've signed someone far worse for more money to be Valentin's significant other. Easley can also play in the outfield if needed.
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main