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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Saturday, April 17, 2004

Montreal Expos

Signed P Livan Hernandez to a 3-year contract extension worth $21 million.

They won’t keep Vlad.  Or Bartolo.  Or Vazquez.  Or Cabrera or Vidro when the time comes.  But Expo fans can rest assured that Livan Hernandez will remain.

Livan was excellent last year and he’s been good in the very brief season to date, but $7 million a year?  Unlike the Angels case with GA, it can’t be argued that the Expos wallets are open and the $7 million won’t prevent other signings.  For a team that’s investment goal is to spending nothing and making it retroactive, this contract could look pretty ugly in 2 years.  And if the plan’s to spend a lot prior to a move to DC, I can think of better players on the team to spend a lot on.

Dan Szymborski Posted: April 17, 2004 at 01:38 PM | 7 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. scruff Posted: September 10, 2001 at 09:58 PM (#551746)
Orlando Cabrera has been spotted hitting clean up and 5th, right behind Guerrero. That is reason enough to have Torborg fired in my opinion. Can you say rock bottom?

Not too long after Alou was fired, Randy Keisler pitched the best 5 innings of his young career (got hit hard in the 6th I think). Mike Mordecai was batting leadoff (.290ish career OBP) and Cabrera was clean-up. That might be the worst 1-4 combo ever.

I love the Expos and Yankees and I live in the DC area. I'd love to see them come to town, but if this is what it takes, I'm not sure I want to have to see it up close. Sometimes it's better to watch from a distance. If Vlad leaves after next year, it's really going to get ugly. But at the same point, I really don't want him to become another Ernie Banks.
   2. Ken Arneson Posted: February 20, 2002 at 02:28 AM (#554683)
Canseco's OPS vs. lefties the last three years: 1.009, .956, 1.092.

I think this is a pretty decent first move by Minaya, considering the slim pickings left on the market at this stage. I doubt whoever else the Expos would have in left field against left-handers could put up an OPS around 1.000.

Canseco's not a star anymore, but platoon him and use him as a pinch hitter and he is still a useful player. Of course, he would be more useful in a league with a DH...
   3. Alan Posted: February 20, 2002 at 04:11 AM (#554688)
Matt, Rick Reed is not a bad pitcher.

As for the topic of discussion, I agree with the person that suggested he get a chance at first base. If Canseco stays healthy(big if) and the Expos give him a chance to play every day at first, it wouldn't be surprising to see him do something around .250/.360/.550 and approach 500 HR, while providing awful defense. That'll draw some crowds and at least he isn't Lee Stevens.
   4. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 20, 2002 at 04:43 AM (#554690)
Other Dan hit the nail right on the head. In isolation, picking up Canseco for free is a good, low-risk move. Using Canseco in leftfield in order to block your only really good hitting prospect picked up post-Duquette is not a good idea. If the Expos were only going to use him as a pinch-hitter, that would be one thing, but this is the first "name" guy not named Tim Raines that they've picked up and I doubt Frank Robinson is going to automatically fill Wilkerson's name in the lineup like he should.
   5. RJ in TO Posted: February 20, 2002 at 06:27 AM (#554693)
I would be shocked if Canseco didn't make the HOF, but I would expect the writers to make him wait around on the outside for a while. His totals are good, his peak years were fantastic, and a lot of his numbers were pre-offensive explosion. Of course, the injury thing will pull him back, and he better watch out that he doesn't end up like Dave Kingman, where everyone is just so sick of his on-field/off-field behaviour that they just want him to go away, even if he can still contribute at a respectable level.

With that being said, I'm greatly looking forwards to the comedy that will be Canseco in the OF on Montreal AstroTurf. Because he sure didn't have a clue as to what he was doing in the SkyDome 4 years ago.
   6. Alan Posted: February 20, 2002 at 08:01 AM (#554695)
Matt,

I agree that Reed was very bad in Minnesota. It'd be hard for me not to, as much as I like him. But just because Reed struggled for 2 months in Minnesota, that does not make him a bad pitcher. In fact, over the course of his career, he's been a pretty good pitcher, with some very impressive stretches. To say that the Twins traded for a bad pitcher really isn't fair. Reed was an all-star in 2001, and he left the Mets with an ERA that season of 3.48. I agree the trade was bad, simply because the Twins gave up their best offensive player just to make it look like they were trying to compete and willing to add payroll, but I didn't see anyone predicting Reed to be as bad as he was in Minnesota.
   7. Old Matt Posted: February 20, 2002 at 10:33 AM (#554699)
i'm confused. does jose want to play the outfield? it seems at this point his sole purpose in life at this point is to get to 500 hr. is he unaware of the fact that his stumbling around left field on the turf is fairly likely to land him on the dl with a bad back or bruised forehead or whatever? and assuming that he is at least familiar with the concept of national league, was their not one AL club willing to throw him out their at DH for 100 or so games? couldn't the twins have used that kind of power? hell, if the sox think they can jam rickey out on the field occasionally they surely could have convinced jose they'd get him some at bats. perhaps the expos are hoping to deal him in july back to a nice safe AL dugout. that's another issue altogether however.
   8. Repoz Posted: February 20, 2002 at 02:44 PM (#554701)
NTN god....Brad Wilkerson played CF for the U.S. Olympic Team,but is definitely lacking the speed needed to play center in the majors.What Wilkerson does possess is an above average RFer's arm but that being blocked by The Impaler, the Expos moved him over to LF....But they also want to try him at 1st...Seeing that he is a gap/double hitter, I'm not sure his power stats would be good enough at 1st
   9. klobedanz Posted: February 20, 2002 at 03:12 PM (#554702)
Canseco, if he continues to hit at the numbers posted last year is an absolute steal for the minimum, and I don't get some A.L. team not giving him a shot. He was on pace for 30+ HRs, something noone on the Twins was able to do last season.
   10. Big Ed Posted: February 20, 2002 at 03:19 PM (#554704)
16 HRs in about 250 ABs, 45-50 BBs, 260-ish batting average. And all that with inconsistent playing time. And he couldn't be any worse in the field than Carlos Lee. I was surprised the Sox didn't play him more.
   11. Bull Pain Posted: February 20, 2002 at 03:45 PM (#554705)
Jose also was strong at working pitchers. I am not sure if ever swung the bat until he had two strikes, and often would take a 3rd strike right down the pipe for good measure! I still can not fathom why the Angels cut him last spring. Any AL team with a DH problem would benefit greatly from his performance.
   12. Danny Posted: February 20, 2002 at 04:07 PM (#554706)
If this were any other non-contending team they should just platoon him at 1B and LF for a couple months, then ship his .850 OPS to an AL contender for prospects. Too bad Bud wants to contract the Expos to save baseball.
   13. Repoz Posted: February 20, 2002 at 05:15 PM (#554709)
When Canseco was playing for the Independent Newark team, I talked to one scout who told me that Canseco could no longer hit a pitcher's pitch but had to wait for his one shot at a cripple pitch per AB.....But then again he also said that his bat speed was too slow and would not play in the majors again......aaaahhh the joys of scouting.
   14. klobedanz Posted: February 20, 2002 at 05:23 PM (#554710)
Yeah, but probably 75% of ML batters wait for a pitcher to make a mistake and can't hit a "pitcher's pitch". And I still think Jose has the bat speed to go yard on one of those nice, straight Billy Koch fastballs.
   15. Alan Posted: February 20, 2002 at 07:08 PM (#554712)
MattD,

OK. I have to agree with you then. Sorry for dragging this out.

Here's my 2 cents on the Canseco vs. Edgar argument. Dan, it seems to me Canseco's "peak" was 1988, and just 1988. He proceeded to hurt himself and was never a great player after that, although his 1990 was very good. Edgar has been a great hitter every year from 1991 through today, with the exceptions of '93 and '94, when he was hurt. Edgar has a 15 point advantage in career SLG and a 72! point advantage in OBP. Edgar has been one of the 5 or 6 best hitters in baseball throughout this time. If I had a hall vote, I'd vote for Edgar, but not Canseco.
   16. RJ in TO Posted: February 20, 2002 at 08:07 PM (#554714)
Dan,

Is it better to play the full game badly than to play 2/3 of the game well? Seriously, I had the misfortune to watch Canseco play the field when he was a Jay, and he was a disaster out there. I would much rather have a player who recognizes his shortcomings and minimizes them, rather than someone like Canseco who doesn't recognize his flaws. Yes, he plays the field and Edgar doesn't. But he's been a DH for about half his career, while Edgar has been a DH for 2/3 and was playing a more valuable defensive spot when he was in the field. The difference between the two in terms of their defensive contributions is not exactly huge.

And Edgar has never given up a HR off his head.
   17. Repoz Posted: February 20, 2002 at 08:12 PM (#554715)
Dan....Mazeroski wasn't a specialist?
   18. Bob T Posted: February 20, 2002 at 08:16 PM (#554716)
Recently, both Rickey Henderson and Willie Wilson made their NL debuts at age 37 after spending their careers in the AL.
   19. Alan Posted: February 20, 2002 at 09:50 PM (#554717)
What Ryan said. Is it really more helpful to a team to play a bad left field than to DH? I really don't think so. I'm sure Edgar could go out there and suck in left field if he was asked to. It's not like having Jeter at shortstop where he's maxing his value, or sticking Giles or Shawn Green in center.
   20. Greg Franklin Posted: February 21, 2002 at 12:05 AM (#554719)
Besides Jose's "intangibles" questions, I can't help but think his weak performance with the 2000 Yankees (Steinbrenner's famous waiver wire acquisition from Tampa Bay) tanked his stock. 1 postseason AB, 1 strikeout. The .243 BA in 111 ABs masked an 800 OPS, but the perception in NY was that he was an utter joke as a hitter.

This may be what Repoz's scout at Newark had in the back of his mind - he didn't make it in NY, therefore he must be washed up.
   21. fables of the deconstruction Posted: February 21, 2002 at 06:38 AM (#554721)
I can't believe some of the "stuff" I'm reading here. Commissar Bud spent the whole off-season attempting to make a mockery of the game of baseball. All he got for it was a puckered a**hole from being blasted from all sides but the inside. (Including most posters at this site.) Yet some of you apparently want to give him the justification he needs to do exactly what he wants by having a MLB team make an absolute farce of its season. Whether you're serious or just joking, it is NOT humourous and I for one, am not amused by it. And those of you suggesting such should be ashamed.

Apparently, it's much easier for a team that has failed to win 70 games for the past 4 seasons to just "jake" it since "everyone knows they're going to be "contracted rather than work through their changes and challenges towards something better. Personally, I see a scenario where they not only win more than 70 games this season, they also finish above the basement in the NL East. But since they are a bunch of no-talent bums, there's obviously no way for this to occur.

Well, the season is 162 games long and teams play the games just to find out how the season goes. Check back on September 29th. If I'm wrong, you have an open invitation to make me eat my words. I won't do so before then.

---------
   22. Dan 'The Boy' Werr Posted: February 21, 2002 at 07:32 AM (#554723)
It's hard for me to consider Edgar Martinez a specialist in the same sense as Bill Mazeroski or Bruce Sutter. To me, he's more like an AL starting pitcher, whose contribution is completely defensive, except his is completely offensive. That's the way I look at it. As Martinez is one of the most elite hitters around, I'd put him in the same category as the most elite pitchers.

Besides, no one who saw the "I took my geoduck to Puyallup" commercial would deny Edgar his spot.

As for Canseco, I'm on the fence with him.
   23. RJ in TO Posted: February 22, 2002 at 03:46 AM (#554903)
Is there some backstory as to why this guy suddenly dissapeared from the major leagues after 1995, because I can't believe that someone with his numbers couldn't even find a backup role somewhere. I mean, Rob Ducey has been kicking around for 15 years as a backup, why wasn't this guy?
   24. Bunny Vincennes Posted: February 22, 2002 at 09:30 PM (#554906)
I was wondering if our friend Red Sox Thialand had perhaps taken the short trip to see Mr. Jose in Korea?

JV
   25. RJ in TO Posted: February 22, 2002 at 10:50 PM (#554908)
They may as well keep bringing these guys into camp. At worst, they just cut them in a month, and it is possible that they might be able to find a useful 1B/OF type from the collection, or a couple decent bench guys. And if they get lucky (and MLB lets them) they might be able to swap one or two of them for prospects or whatever. Of course, I doubt that MLB will allow any trade at all, due to the ineviable outcry, no matter how good the return. Or someone might turn into a decent player/coach, play the Tim Raines role, and possibly help a couple of their younger guys.

At least they aren't signing Pokey to multi-year deals.
   26. Big Ed Posted: February 22, 2002 at 11:17 PM (#554726)
I find it interesting that after not being offered a shot by any team this offseason, Canseco has been offered a shot by every team(every team has a stake in the Expos).
   27. Repoz Posted: February 23, 2002 at 02:40 AM (#554910)
Wasn't this Johnson Lanced over on the Raffy viagra thread?
   28. RJ in TO Posted: February 23, 2002 at 03:58 AM (#554911)
Dan,

What else is Minaya supposed to do? He gets the GM job a week before spring training, his entire staff is stolen by Florida, and he's not allowed to make major signings. So instead, he's doing whatever he can to bring guys into camp who might be useful and picking from the best of what remained. Lance Johnson isn't likely to make the club, but given the state of the Expos, it won't hurt to see if he has anything left. Same goes for Felix Jose, Canseco, and whoever else the Expos can find. The only reason that it's been all OF that he's picked up is that every other team has already gone over every potential IF guy available and invited them to their camps. So Minyana is forced to be inventive by bringing in guys who might not be done, as there's always the possibility that one of them could bring something in a trade (assuming that Minyana is allowed to make trades).
   29. All you Need is Glove Posted: February 23, 2002 at 04:35 AM (#554913)
THe better question is why a reasonably hot GM candidate like Minaya would take this deadend job. Even if they sell the team and move it to DC it is unlikely that a new owner would retain the old GM. I heard whispers that Minaya has been promised another job but this seems like a pretty crappy career path.
   30. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 23, 2002 at 06:18 AM (#554914)
Minaya wasn't thrust into this job against his will; he voluntarily took the job and as such, should have a plan better than signing outfielders that were washed up years ago.

There isn't exactly a shortage of available bodies out there; if Minaya wanted to invite guys nobody else wanted, there are plenty of better "names" still around like Galarraga (if he doesn't want to, he's not the only one), useful players like Jason Hardtke and Scott Sheldon and John Roskos (none have signed as far as I know and there's more out there). Rich Becker is a better backup in the outfield than any of the outfielders he signed and if any of them end up starting, that's not a good thing.

The players signed weren't just wanted this year; they weren't wanted by anyone in any recent year. Mike Neill just signed with the Mets today and he's almost certainly a better player than any of Canseco, Jose or Johnson. That would be inventive. Minaya could even pick up better crappy outfielders that nobody wanted like Glenallen Hill or Henry Rodriguez.
   31. RJ in TO Posted: February 23, 2002 at 06:40 AM (#554915)
I agree that there are better players out there. There are probably hundreds of better players out there than Felix Jose. But finding most of them would probably require a scouting staff, which is something that Montreal doesn't exactly have right now, or a legitimate front office, which is something Montreal doesn't have right now, or the ability to trade for players, which is something that Montreal doesn't have right now. Some article posted that when Minyana started as the Expos GM, he was given a list of 6 names that represented his entire staff. As a result, Minyana has been forced into the situation where he has to grab whatever he can get on short notice, which consists largely of players whose names he can remember off the top of his head. Besides, as time passes, and they get a staff put in place, we may see some Montreal sign some of these better options, but right now the major concern is just finding warm bodies. Remember, a week on the job is hardly enough time to provide an accurate indication of what a GM can do.

And (even though his defence is garbage) Canseco is still a better player than Hill or Rodriguez, as I don't remember Hill or Rodriguez being wizards with the glove.
   32. fables of the deconstruction Posted: February 23, 2002 at 07:01 AM (#554917)
Forget what I said; it's still funny.
   33. Alan Posted: February 23, 2002 at 12:02 PM (#554920)
Je ne m'inqui?te pas si le coaxial Gary Carter ou l'Andre Dawson d'Expos hors de la retraite -- nous des ventilateurs d'Expo (le pr?cieux peu qu'il y a) simplement ne nous inqui?tons pas. Ainsi si Canseco sign? par Minaya pour nous obliger ? sortir au Stade Olympique... l'oublient. Du bon c?t?, la gestion peut offrir la Nuit F?tide Garantie de Boule chaque jour de la saison.

According to Alta Vista, this translates to:

"I do not worry if coaxial Gary Carter or the Andre Dawson d' Expos out of the retirement -- us about the ventilators of Expo (the invaluable one little that it y a) simply we do not worry. Thus if Canseco signed by Minaya to oblige us to come out at the Olympic Stage... forget it. Good side, management can offer the Guaranteed Stinking Night of Ball each day of the season."

I guess that sort of makes sense, but either Youppi needs to work on his French or Babel Fish is even worse than I thought.
   34. Dan 'The Boy' Werr Posted: February 23, 2002 at 12:57 PM (#554921)
Subjectively refined a little (thanks for pointing out the translator, Alan):

"I wouldn't worry about coaxing Gary Carter or the Andre Dawson out of retirement -- us Expo fans (precious few that there are) simply do not care. Thus if Canseco was signed by Minaya to oblige us to come out to Olympic Stadium...forget it. On the good side, management can offer the Guaranteed Fetid Night of Ball each day of the season."

Fans = ventilators... and "precious few that there are" translates to le pr?cieux peu qu'il y a.
   35. Alan Posted: February 23, 2002 at 01:05 PM (#554922)
Thanks, Dan. I could figure the translation out, except for the "ventilators" and "the invaluable one little that y a." Thanks for clearing it up.
   36. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 23, 2002 at 04:41 PM (#554924)
As I said in the Canseco thread, I don't think that Canseco can put butts in the seats; if I thought differently, I'd be a bit more in support of signing Canseco, but I think at this point, the fans in Montreal are alienated to a point at which it would take a lot of effort to win them back. It's hardly been unknown that Canseco hasn't been wanted the last few years and I doubt that even casual fans of Les Expos think they've landed themselves a star. Bringing Le Grand Orange out of retirement might be more effective at this point.
   37. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: February 23, 2002 at 05:27 PM (#554925)
I agree that there are better players out there. There are probably hundreds of better players out there than Felix Jose. But finding most of them would probably require a scouting staff, which is something that Montreal doesn't exactly have right now, or a legitimate front office, which is something Montreal doesn't have right now, or the ability to trade for players, which is something that Montreal doesn't have right now.

Or a copy of Baseball Prospectus, and John Sickels' phone number.

It doesn't require a scouting staff to find players better than Felix Jose.
   38. RJ in TO Posted: February 23, 2002 at 06:59 PM (#554927)
I apologise if I'm wrong, but aren't most of the people discussed in BA and Baseball Prospectus already under contracts to other teams, and would require the Expos to make a trade when it is unclear that they have the ability to do this? The available talent is even less impressive when you consider at this late a date in the offseason every other team has been throwing out non-roster invitations for the last month. Hell, DiSarcina has already been called into camp, and he's nearly dead. Minyana having either BA or BP in his hands would, for the most part, just result in him knowing what talent other people already have.
   39. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 24, 2002 at 02:43 AM (#554931)
Neill was awful in 2001, but it was his by far worst season since his early 20s. Canseco shouldn't be in the field anymore while Neill can still fake it. Given Canseco's back, I feel the prospect of him breaking down doesn't make his 370/470 all that more compelling than the 370/430 Neill would likely hit in the majors. And with Neill, there's little chance of the manager playing him over Wilkerson.
   40. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 24, 2002 at 02:45 AM (#554954)
I'm surprised, too. You'd at least think there'd be a comment from "Mrs. Chavez" or some washed-out speedy outfielder complaining about Chavez having a job.
   41. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 24, 2002 at 05:07 PM (#554935)
1997: 321/403/460
   42. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 24, 2002 at 05:09 PM (#554960)
The Royals signed you awhile ago. Your 2001 season dropped the rest of us off your bandwagon, Jon.
   43. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: February 25, 2002 at 10:19 PM (#554941)
DP: You can't be serious, can you? Dumping two useless players and getting an OBP machine that would relieve Jay Payton of starting duties would be so lopsided in favor of the Mets as to beg Minyana's actual team allegiances.
   44. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 25, 2002 at 10:47 PM (#554942)
It seems were are unfamiliar with sarcasm. I shall close the register at this point and state that 99 cents is the rental price.
   45. Alan Posted: February 25, 2002 at 10:57 PM (#554943)
Toca's young enough that he could still improve to be a 1B who hits .260 about 10-15 HR and a few walks a year

DP, I hope you're not serious. Toca's listed age is 27. He's probably closer to 30. Even if he is just 27, he's no longer a prospect. In 27 major league at bats, Toca has all of 0 walks. In Norfolk last year, at age 26, he hit .268 with 11 HR and 23 walks in 401 at bats. Baseball Prospectus went as far as saying that Rey Ordonez is a better hitter. Right now, Toca is basically worthless.

So that makes the trade Timo for Wilkerson straight up. Timo went from 24 to 26 this offseason. Wilkerson has managed to maintain his age of 24 through the winter. Timo impressed for 2 months in 2000, and has hit the snot out of the ball AAA the last few years, but he refuses to draw a walk in NY and tries to hit the ball 400 feet every time he steps to the plate. He's got some potential, but it's appears his most likely performance will be around .300/.360/.410, and that may be pushing it. Wilkerson seems pretty likely to hit .275/.400/.420 if he gets a chance to play full time. Teams have also shown a lot more interest in Wilkerson than in Timo. If I were Phillips, I'd make the trade in a heartbeat.
   46. Alan Posted: February 25, 2002 at 11:03 PM (#554944)
OK. I look like an idiot now. At least I'm not the only one. I'm just happy that no one actually thinks Toca is good. And Dan, I'd rather have "Lee Carvallo's Putting Challenge" than "Bonestorm" anyway. A good golf game is much harder to find than a typical fighting game.
   47. ColonelTom Posted: February 25, 2002 at 11:15 PM (#554728)
Canseco may actually put a few fans in the seats, even if it's only for the comedy of watching him wander aimlessly around the Olympic Stadium outfield. MLB would like to sell a few tickets for the Expos this year, so why not sign him?

Maybe next they can convince Big Mac to reunite with his "Bash Brother" north of the border... ;-)
   48. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 26, 2002 at 12:15 AM (#554945)
If you recall, the choice is to buy Bonestorm or go to Hell.
   49. Walt Davis Posted: March 28, 2002 at 12:24 AM (#555616)
OK, what am I missing? The Mets don't have room for Collier, who surely doesn't have options left, so they'll have to put him on waivers. The Expos I believe would have first crack at him on the waiver wire. You trade not one, but two, players for the right to keep the Mets from trading him to the D-Rays?
   50. RJ in TO Posted: March 29, 2002 at 06:18 AM (#555672)
Or it could be a matter of teams thinking "why do we need a guy who can't play the field, gets hurt a lot, causes all sorts of trouble off the field, and whines when he doesn't play everyday".

I don't think that teams believe he can't hit anymore. Rather, it's a matter of teams not wanting to deal with everything else that comes with the Canseco experience.
   51. Repoz Posted: March 29, 2002 at 07:08 AM (#555673)
Canseco can still mash LHP,a good scare tactic off the bench and draw some serious double B's,but once Canseco gets on base you can expect some crumbling roid chunks to spring loose as he's rounding second.

After watching Canseco running the bases in Newark last season I started to get some weird ass black beauties flashbacks of embolus-like Tom Boerwinkle having a life or death struggle with lateral movement.

Not a pretty sight.
   52. fables of the deconstruction Posted: March 29, 2002 at 08:40 AM (#555675)
2) BAL- Doubtful. This team needs all the help they can get. But The Orioles seem to be planning to give the brunt of the DH duty to Jeff Conine whom Canseco could outhit. But Conine's new contract will probably keep the team from adding Canseco to their collection of relics.

Gadfly,

Although it's likely that Conine will see time at DH this year, (along with several others) I believe that by the end of the season David Segui will have gotten the majority of the AB's there. (That is if he can stay healthy enough to avoid spending half the season on the DL.) If that happens, Conine will mostly play 1B. If Segui can't avoid the injury bug, [GULP, GARGLE, GAG] Melvin Mora will end up with too many AB's at DH. (Yikes! I may have to pry my eyeballs out.)

--------------
   53. fables of the deconstruction Posted: March 30, 2002 at 01:30 AM (#555678)
Gadfly,

Last night when I wrote what I did, I had no more of an idea than you did of how the Orioles line up would shake out. Actually, that's wrong. Having kept up with the "trials and tribulations" of their spring training saga, I had a good feeling for how I felt it would turn out. Either last week or earlier this week, Hargrove all but announced that Jay Gibbons would be the rightfielder. To me, this meant that Conine either would be the primary DH or firstbaseman. Since David (No Knees) Segui can't do anything more strenuous than stick his finger up his nose without getting injured, I fully expected that Hargrove would validate his statement of a few weeks back and primarily slot Segui at DH which leaves Conine at 1B. Besides, with Segui being a switch hitter, it makes the best kind of sense given the circumstances.

Having read your reply about a half hour ago, I started looking at sites I usually would read earlier in the day. I didn't have to go too long to find this confirming story at Sunspot. While ESPN has it's uses, their features such as the one you used are not known as "timely intelligence" and should be considerably taken with "large amounts of salt." As for the remainder of your two posts, you're pretty much "spot on." There's nothing else I can take issue with as far as the O's go.

--------------
   54. Walt Davis Posted: March 30, 2002 at 10:01 PM (#555679)
I went through the same exercise as Gadfly and came to pretty much the same conclusion. The only team where he's a genuinely good fit is Anaheim, especially with Wooten out. But I think there's no chance they'd go for that.

I wouldn't rule out Cleveland entirely _if they can dump Travis Fryman somewhere_. (Where? Boston's about the only place I can think of desparate enough to do it) That would allow them to slot Branyan into 3rd. If you could get 80 games of LF and 40-50 games of DH out of Ellis, that gives you 100-120 games of Canseco at DH. Even if Ellis splits 60 games LF/60 DH, that still gives you 100 games of Canseco at DH. This team could use his offense. At the very least, he should be on Shapiro's speed dial for when Burks gets hurt.
   55. Cris E Posted: April 01, 2002 at 05:33 PM (#555681)
ESPN's roster page does have some problems (ie Dick Such still listed as pitching coach in MIN), but they can be fun in exercises like this. For example, David Ortiz is somehow listed as an outfielder. I can't for the life of me picture him carrying on out there, but if it were true it would open up some DH ABs for Jose.

On a more realistic note, I think he would be a much better fit in MIN than, say, Jay Canizaro. They are already parading around Denny Hocking as the fifth OF, so why not get a quasi-real one that can hit lefties and move Denny to sixth OF? This weird fascination with utility infielders that Gardenhire is showing is starting to remind me of Detroit, except their UT guys can hit a little.
   56. User unknown in local recipient table (Craig B) Posted: April 01, 2002 at 07:30 PM (#555682)
Cris, MLB listing Ortiz as an OF reminds me of a DMB league I play in where last year a dead team wound up with Harold Baines starting about a dozen games in centerfield.
   57. Walt Davis Posted: April 04, 2002 at 05:50 PM (#555685)
For example, David Ortiz is somehow listed as an outfielder.

Somehow, sandbox fantasy baseball has listed Marty Cordova as eligible at C for this season.
   58. Cris E Posted: May 09, 2002 at 03:13 PM (#556413)
Me too. Between this and David Bell's breakthru I think I'm sunk.
   59. DEF: #attentionwhore Posted: May 09, 2002 at 03:47 PM (#556414)
Dan, you're seriously underrating Bergeron's defense. It doesn't show up in the defensive stats, but bergeron is actually a very good defensive CF. Why doesn't it show up in the stats? Because all of those easy fly balls between RF and CF that the CF puts away on 29 out of 30 ML teams belong to the RF in Montreal. What Vlad wants Vlad gets, and Vlad wants to catch absolutely every ball that he can get to. Never mind that it's an easy out, and never mind that decades of baseball tradition says that those balls go to the CF. I saw a study somewhere that said that Bergeron made 6 fewer players in 2001 than an average CF would have. I can recall at least a dozen times last year where Vlad stepped in front of Bergeron to make a catch, so I'd guess that Bergeron is at least a half a dozen plays better than the average CF, if not more.
   60. Alan Posted: May 09, 2002 at 07:29 PM (#556418)
This is making me think Jay Payton will be an Expo sometime in the near future.
   61. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: May 09, 2002 at 07:44 PM (#556419)
It's a shame that washed-up vets like Rodriguez and O'Leary are getting ABs in Montreal while Fernando Seguignol's across the Pacific learning to slurp his soba and duck before he enters doorways. With luck, he'll learn to be a bit more selective and get on the Cecil Fielder career path in a year or two.

In other news, I *really* wish that when I'd first chosen a random pseudonym, my brain would have taken the time to check and make sure it had NOTHING WHATSOEVER to do with baseball. It makes commenting on Montreal-related threads indescribably awkward.
   62. Bernal Diaz has an angel on his shoulder Posted: May 11, 2002 at 03:52 AM (#556423)
Great, now when the Indians play the Expos this year O'Leary can kick our asses like he did whenhe was with the Red Sox. Wonderful.
   63. Brian Posted: May 17, 2002 at 07:18 PM (#556631)
Yeah...satanic dismemberment and such.
   64. Greg Franklin Posted: May 17, 2002 at 07:28 PM (#556632)
Chris, you've met a long-running in-joke here on the Primer and other baseball newsgroups.

Other than Truby's alliance with Satan, this is pretty much a nothing-for-nothing deal.
   65. Greg Franklin Posted: May 17, 2002 at 09:12 PM (#556634)
The Det News report has Dave Dombrowski painting the trade as a pure defense-minded replacement for Dean Palmer. With Truby taking a larger role at 3B, DD said Craig Paquette will be free to roam around the field, something he couldn't do with Palmer on the shelf.

So in the near future Tiger fans will be seeing the full palette of Paquette.
   66. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: May 18, 2002 at 01:12 AM (#556636)
Truby's not a bad pickup, in that he can _actually_ play third, as opposed to all the Detroit guys who can only do it in theory (Paquette, Young, Palmer, Halter). He didn't suck with the Expos, which is a positive.

I think the prime motivator for Montreal was Fernando Tatis's mindset, not Orlando Cabrera's. Tatis is still a talented young player, and the organization seems to be pretty sweet on him. By trading the placeholder acquired to fill in for his injury, the Expos are confirming that the job is still his.
   67. Bob T Posted: May 18, 2002 at 07:34 PM (#556639)
Truby also mentioned that it was the second straight year that his parents flew down to L.A. from Seattle to watch him play. Last year he said he got sent down to New Orleans and this year he got traded to Detroit.

If he sticks with Detroit, he has 50% chance of playing in L.A. next year, but you never know about those interleague schedules.
   68. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: May 20, 2002 at 03:15 AM (#556642)
Got a link on that, Eddie?
   69. Michael Posted: May 22, 2002 at 02:33 PM (#556644)
Dombrowski said that the Tiger defense was worse than expected at 3B because they expected Palmer to play 3B and he wasn't able to do so. I hope he doesn't really believe that. Palmer was bad third baseman before shoulder problems and expecting him to have been a full-time third baseman for 2002 was pretty ridiculous and wouldn't have helped the defense.

That being said, Truby seems like a modest upgrade over Macias. He's hit 20 HRs in 500 MLB ABs, although that's probably with some platoon advantage and outside of Comerica Park. Still, he seems like a more productive player than Macias offensively, better defensively, better fit for the Tiger's needs, and younger.
   70. Repoz Posted: May 26, 2002 at 02:10 PM (#556814)
Speaking of Peter Bergeron,besides skewering my Hacking Mass team by being minorized,he is now having problems (re?)adjusting to AAA for the Ottawa Lynx in the International League.

BA-.226..12/53
   71. wcw Posted: March 25, 2003 at 03:24 PM (#565446)
zips is probably close. my guesstimate watching Livan is that his true level has been slightly better than replacement-level, and in the fold with his more-motivated brother, he may approach league-average this year, which would be downright useful for $300k.

however, his value around the league seems to be nil. any acquiring team may be on the hook for a $6M option that vests if he pitches 217 innings (iirc). also, I'm sure it's not just Giants fans who look at him and flash back to his choketastic series performances.
   72. Scott Posted: March 25, 2003 at 05:21 PM (#565450)
Cuba to U.S. to Canada... next logical stop: Greenland? Ice Station Zebra?
   73. GregQ Posted: March 25, 2003 at 05:26 PM (#565451)
Scott- I think Giant fans have a warmer home in mind for Livan
   74. Fog City Blues Posted: March 25, 2003 at 05:45 PM (#565455)
I'm very happy that Kurt Ainsworth will now have a spot in the rotation. Throughout his career he's been tough on righties and lefties have hammered him, so he's a perfect fit for Pac Bell.

All in all a good trade for the Giants. If Livan would've reached 217 IP he would've taken up $6MM in salary in 2004 that would be better spent on resigning Aurilia (or signing just about anyone else for that matter).
   75. Shredder Posted: March 25, 2003 at 07:28 PM (#565460)
If it's any consolation, I thought you were clutch, Livan. I really enjoyed your performance.
   76. The Artist Posted: March 25, 2003 at 07:46 PM (#565465)
Ah... Aint it great to be a Giants fan.. .Finally, some sort
   77. fracas' hope springs eternal Posted: March 25, 2003 at 08:01 PM (#565467)
Albatrosses for sale! Get your Raul Mondesi right here! Damian Easley, cheap, cheap! Sterling Hitchcock, no offer too low! A lot of these guys would be gone already, but their owners apparently don't want to pay enough for someone to take them off their hands.

Actually, instead of "Albatross!" the correct Monty Python quote/reference might be:
   78. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: March 25, 2003 at 10:17 PM (#565471)
For the record, Ritchie's 1999 was better than any season Livan's ever had. I'd take Todd over him in a heartbeat, as long as he had a physical first.

Livan Hernandez is Jimmy Anderson's right-handed Cuban cousin.
   79. fracas' hope springs eternal Posted: March 26, 2003 at 12:45 AM (#565475)
and win more than he has any right to because of his bat and glove.

Hey, he's got a right to whatever wins his glove and bat bring him. What's scary is that his glove work is already reflected in his underwhelming ERA.
   80. Dr. Vaux Posted: March 26, 2003 at 05:04 AM (#565478)
Someone forgot to drink his prune juice.
   81. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: March 26, 2003 at 03:23 PM (#565482)
"Posted 9:01 a.m., March 25, 2003 (#4) - D from D
   82. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: March 26, 2003 at 04:09 PM (#565483)
"I mean, what is exactly the risk for the Expos?"

Here is a brief summary of the risks, as I see them.

Hernandez pitches often enough to automatically vest his $6M 2004 option, dropping a crushing weight onto the team's payroll and necessitating further salary dumps in the offseason.

Hernandez pitches badly but often, costing the Expos a shot at the playoffs in a fractured and wide-open NL East.

Hernandez pitches badly, losing his rotation spot and becoming a sullen and violent clubhouse cancer.

Hernandez's overloaded knee collapses, knocking him out for the year.

Hernandez's overworked arm disintegrates, knocking him out for the year.

Hernandez pitches well, ratcheting up the quality of the PTBNL the Expos send to San Francisco. Forced to ship out Josh Karp, Montreal is unable to flip Hernandez for a prospect of equal quality at the trade deadline.

Hernandez pitches well in 2003 and re-signs for 2004 at a reasonable figure, permitting the team to trade Armas or Vazquez. He returns to his normal level of performance in 2004, opening a huge hole in the rotation.

Hernandez gets into a fight with a fan outside the stadium, creating a large amount of bad publicity and exposing the team to an enormous lawsuit.

Hernandez gets into a fight in the clubhouse and injures Vlad, Vazquez, or Vidro.

Hernandez blocks a deserving Zach Day or Seung Song from a rotation slot, decreasing the quality of the team on the field.

Hernandez struggles and Jim Brower enjoys a fluke career season (as a handful of relievers do every year).

Hernandez becomes a bad influence for the young Expos, causing headaches long after his departure.

That's just the ones that immediately spring to mind. I'm sure there are others...
   83. User unknown in local recipient table (Craig B) Posted: August 21, 2003 at 06:55 PM (#567542)
I don't know, Zeile looks (to me) a lot better than that. His EqAs since 2000 are .277, .266, .259, and .237 this year. I'd think he'd be good for an EqA of .250 or so, much better than what the Expos have been getting.
   84. BrandonMO (U L) Posted: August 21, 2003 at 07:35 PM (#567543)
This will be Zeile's 11th team
   85. ColonelTom Posted: August 22, 2003 at 04:08 PM (#567546)
Are Robinson/Minaya smart enough to use him as a backup at catcher also? If so he no longer is a waste of a roster space

Zeile hasn't caught a game since 1990. For comparison, Craig Biggio and Carlos Delgado have caught major-league games more recently than Zeile. Ain't gonna happen.
   86. Ziggy Posted: December 15, 2003 at 10:33 PM (#570165)
Endy Chavez? Maybe he goes to play for Newark?

If CHA trades Ordonez then cross off one of STL, LA, BAL or ANA from the Juan Gone sweepstakes. Having traded Drew, STL looks like a good fit, but after last year I'm sure LA is frantic to upgrade their offense, and Juan Encarnacion isn't going to do it.
   87. MNB Posted: December 15, 2003 at 11:13 PM (#570166)
so who is the center fielder now? Wilkerson or Everett?
   88. MM1f Posted: December 16, 2003 at 12:20 AM (#570170)
Why do this if you are Minaya?
   89. bhoov Posted: December 16, 2003 at 01:39 AM (#570174)
Or is Dan Evans that stupid? Actually if the White Sox had offered Carl arbitration the least he could get would be 7.3 million for 1 yr. or a paycut from his 9.1 million salary.
   90. APNY Posted: December 16, 2003 at 06:30 AM (#570180)
Juan Gon may end up in Tampa
   91. Klobedanz Posted: December 16, 2003 at 02:48 PM (#570182)
Anybody who says they'd rather have Juan Rivera play than Carl Everett is smoking grass. Juan Rivera will never be as good as Carl, Juan will be lucky to be as good as Carmelo Martinez.
   92. I Love LA (OFF) Posted: December 23, 2003 at 04:14 AM (#570191)
The Expos should be focused on getting a third baseman now

You are right. Ty Wigginton for Sledge. What a steal for Omar, he gets an everyday player for an unproven rookie.
   93. Tony B Posted: December 27, 2003 at 05:20 PM (#570754)
Johnson, Everett, and Batista should help pick up the slack from Vlad's departure. C and LF (Rivera?) still need to be addressed.
   94. Bud Selig Posted: December 27, 2003 at 06:04 PM (#570756)
On a personal level, I'm very happy to see Batista go to a team that will result in me not having to watch that batting stance.

You know, I could still move the Expos to Washington.
   95. Snowboy Posted: December 27, 2003 at 07:56 PM (#570759)
OF right now is Wilkerson, Everett, Juan Rivera, and Termell Sledge as best in minors, with Endy Chavez as the 5th rump. Rivera and Sledge cannot play CF, Wilkerson and Everett can; I think Everett is a little better there, but either are below avg defensively in CF.
   96. Darren Posted: December 28, 2003 at 12:27 AM (#570763)
Tony, are you feeling okay? You were just talking to yourself AND a stadium. That can't be good.
   97. User unknown in local recipient table (Craig B) Posted: December 29, 2003 at 04:43 PM (#570774)
Rivera and Sledge cannot play CF, Wilkerson and Everett can; I think Everett is a little better there, but either are below avg defensively in CF.

It strikes me that this is almost totally backwards. There weren't any complaints in Edmonton about Sledge's CF defense - he had a real bad shoulder problem in 2000 and 2001, couldn't throw at all, and got a bit of a bad-glove rap because he had to move to first temporarily. The shoulder is healed... he doesn't have a real strong arm, but as far as catching the ball goes, he'll probably be as good as Endy Chavez. He makes a few errors out there too, which doesn't help his rep.

Rivera appears to be a reasonable corner defender, so I'd bet he could fake center.

Crazy Carl, on the other hand, can't really play center at all anymore, and Wilkerson (a pretty poor defensive outfiedler with a real good arm) never really could. The Expos tried Wilkerson in center, but it was a pretty ugly show on the occasions I saw him. His stats are better than that, but still not good.
   98. fables of the deconstruction Posted: December 30, 2003 at 04:30 AM (#570777)
Thank you for correcting me, trevise.

Oh crapola, now I'm being mocked and I'm not even guilty of the crime. Well, I reckon it had to happen eventually. I might as well put a "happy face" on it. :-) ...

------------
   99. User unknown in local recipient table (Craig B) Posted: January 23, 2004 at 09:02 PM (#571982)
Yes, and a hot drink.

"Pasqual Coco" is Spanish for "Mickey Finn".
   100. Walt Davis Posted: January 23, 2004 at 09:10 PM (#571983)
Randy Knorr wishes he lived in ZIPS-world! Those numbers would be good enough for a half-time job.
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