Nats - Acquired Milledge
Washington Nationals - Acquired CF Lastings Milledge from the New York Mets for OF Ryan Church and C Brian Schneider.
Yuck.
While the initial reaction is revulsion, it’s not really as bad as the Kazmir trade as the Mets do get a worthwhile player back in Ryan Church. It’s still pretty bad, though, as Brian Schneider’s arm is still living off the reputation he garnered in 2003-2004 when he threw out more than 50% of baserunners (he’s been down around 30% the last few years) and while his platoon splits are large, he doesn’t really hit righties all that impressively either; he’s just that much worse against lefties. He’s an inferior player to Castro and while $5 million a year isn’t a crippling amount for the Mets, why pay it for a player who should be a backup catcher?. This would have been a better trade for the Mets if it was straight up for Church, though not a good deal by any stretch. Hell, it would have been a better trade for the Mets if they picked up John Schneider with the intention of making a straight-to-DVD-thriller “Bo Duke and the Thundercats in The Prisoner of Zenda.”
I like Ryan Church. He’s a solid player in a corner, not a star, and not really a centerfielder, either. He was treated rather shabbily with the Nats who thanked him for his 287/353/446 rookie season by giving Brandon Watson his job for no particular reason after Church didn’t have a great spring. Even after his best professional season, most of which was wasted toiling in the minors and off the bench, again for no particular reason, the Nats acted like they were doing a favor by letting him get at-bats.
All this being said, I’d rather have Milledge. Milledge is a good player now, has tremendous physical tools, is 7 and a half years younger than Church, and has less service time to boot. Yes, there have been some questions about Milledge in center and while I don’t buy them, we know that Church isn’t a centerfielder.
I don’t think I have to even go into detail why this is good for the Nats. The Nats get the cheapest player in the trade, the most valuable player in the trade, and the player with the least service time in the trade, and the player that most fills a need for their new team in the trade.
Oh, wait, I forgot. Milledge likes rap music, said an expletive, and doesn’t always wear his baseball cap to complete professional standards. Whoop-de-doo.
2008 ZiPS Projection - Ryan Church
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AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG
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Projection 410 54 112 31 1 17 63 48 99 3 .274 .356 .482
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Opt. (15%) 460 71 137 38 2 24 92 61 98 3 .298 .386 .546
Pes. (15%) 267 29 65 16 0 8 38 26 69 0 .243 .315 .393
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Top Comps: Ruppert Jones, Gus Bell
2008 ZiPS Projection - Lastings Milledge
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AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG
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Projection 392 55 108 20 4 15 60 42 88 7 .276 .360 .462
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Opt. (15%) 547 91 162 33 6 28 98 71 107 12 .296 .390 .532
Pes. (15%) 362 44 89 17 2 12 48 36 85 3 .246 .323 .403
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Top Comps: Andruw Jones, Curt Flood
2008 ZiPS Projection - Brian Schneider
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AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG
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Projection 365 29 87 14 0 5 38 41 62 1 .237 .317 .316
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Opt. (15%) 399 37 107 18 0 6 41 49 55 1 .258 .353 .358
Pes. (15%) 228 13 48 6 0 1 15 20 42 0 .211 .277 .250
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Top Comps: Johnny Oates, Jorge Fabregas
Dan Szymborski
Posted: November 30, 2007 at 07:55 PM |
151 comment(s)
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I think the front office is hardly frustrated with the fact that <gasp> two of their draft picks haven't worked out... Especially given how much success they've had with the rest.
Why did the Sox jump Place all the way to AA this year? Quite aggressive. Maybe they didn't want him to pick up bad habits at Lancaster... but that only grows hair on a man's chest, as kevin would argue. And I saw the Yankees drafted Bard before but couldn't sign him. My guess is he didn't need a Tommy John surgery at the time, so they decide to wait.
Speaking of TJ surgery, two of AZ's 2006 draft picks had their elbows rebuild: Dallas Buck (3rd rounder, this past summer) and Daniel Stange (8th rounder, just recently). The Stange surgery is really disappointing as he was starting to open some eyes in the organization. Right now, it's Max Scherzer, Brooks Brown and Mighty Bust. And I think Bust might be the best pitcher of the three.
Incomprehensible disasters produce conspiracist thinking. This disaster is as inexplicable as a baseball disaster gets. I was wondering when a conspiracy theory would show up.
So in the end, it's Lastings and Maine for, in essence, Church and Santana. Now that's a great deal!
By the way, if this doesn't come off, it's because the Twins pulled out at the last second...
The Winter Meetings aren't over. There's still plenty of time. I definitely haven't inked Milledge's name into my lineup card yet.
From what I've been hearing recently, the A's are not as crazy about Milledge as they used to be. In fact, in recent reports I've heard concerning Dan Haren, it was Carlos Gomez and not Milledge going to Oakland.
C Michael Barrett/Gregg Zaun
1B Mike Jacobs
2B Brandon Phillips
3B Jose Bautista
SS Geoff Blum
LF Jason Bay
CF Grady Sizemore
RF Lastings Milledge
UT Ty Wigginton
SP Scott Kazmir
SP Chris Young (this happened 4/3/04, not sure if Minaya was still with the 'Spos then)
SP Brian Bannister
SP Cliff Lee
SP Yusmeiro Petit
RP Heath Bell
RP Jorge Julio
RP David Weathers
RP Royce Ring
Now to be fair, he got back value in some of these trades, but this looks like a team that could be just as good as the one the Mets will put on the field next year.
http://nats320.blogspot.com/2007/11/todays-press-conference.html
Quite interesting, actually. Manny seems particularly keen to defend Milledge against some of the accusations that dogged him last year. This exchange is representative:
I also thought Milledge did a fine job speaking for himself. I think it's worth a read.
Let's assume that, for the sake of the argument, that there was a deal which sent Laird to the Mets for Milledge. Laird is projected to have a 2008 line of .249/.305/.391 while Schneider is projected to put up a .237/.317/.316 line. Now Laird would be moving to a pitcher's park, but he previous numbers in a part-time role were much better (.296/.332/.473 in '06). I think that Laird is a better hitter than is projected, so let's assume that his numbers stay the same. Laird is slightly a better hitter due to his moderate power, plus is only 28 and has just over two years of service time. While Laird may never develop into the starting catcher that Ranger fans saw in '06, he will make a very capable backup. Last season's $400,000 salary is much more reasonable for a catcher who has yet to prove himself. As for another player in this trade, the Rangers would probably part with Benoît, giving the Mets a good arm in the bullpen.
There have been so many stories linking the Rangers and Mets in a deal of Laird, that I just can't see how the above scenario would not have come up. And even thought this is a bad deal for the Mets, it is more acceptable in the shortrun.
For all the jokes that Nats fans make about Bowden turning the club into Red East or Kasten making it Braves North, it IS rather funny that we've acquired three great.
And yes, Nats fans really are in love with Manny Acta as manager right now. He made a few rookie mistakes as manager last year, but his clubhouse approach was fantastic and the majority of his in-game moves (particularly his late-game substitutions, bullpen mangement, and defensive positioning) were impressive for a first-time skipper. And the very fact that he kept a theoretically "historically bad" team fighting respectably all the way until the last game of the season says volumes about his motivational skills. It's really just meaningless speculation, but I do believe that an Acta-helmed Mets team would not have completed The Collapse last season.
For all the jokes that Nats fans make about Bowden turning the club into Reds East or Kasten making it Braves North, it IS rather funny that we've acquired three great talents from the Mets in Acta, Flores and Milledge over the last year.
Colon is still good enough to make that rotation.
So, now, do you former Minaya defenders still think the swap of Sizemore, Phillips, Lee for Hernandez, Leifer and Biddle was just due to the strange situation in Montreal? Or do you think that maybe Minaya's talent evaluation skills and perhaps especially his ability to balance the short and long terms is just a wee bit off?
I think they put a Milledge on him.
Not his talent evaluation skills, Walt. I think those are fine. I think he knows quite well that Milledge has a boatload more talent than what he received in exchange, and that there is a strong chance Milledge will produce in a way that this trade will come back to haunt him for a long time.
But the second part of it . . . certainly. More precisely, he is willing to squander the total value advantage to gain what he thinks he needs in the short term, even if it is wildly disproportionate. In this instance, Minaya could care less that Milledge may produce 200 win shares more than Church and Schneider over the course of his career. He cares that in 2008, (a) they may deliver 2-3 more wins for the Mets, (b) Schneider fills a short-term need at C and Church is probably about as good as Milledge in RF, and (c) he believes (rightly or wrongly) that Gomez or F-Mart will deliver as much or more than Milledge will, so what does it matter if he deals away Milledge in a wasteful trade?
It is like a drunkard with a credit card on an uncontrollable spending spree -- he's just going to drive the team into "talent bankruptcy." Eventually, you have no assets left because you've spent all of the future assets for lesser present value. I just keep reminding myself that he did the opposite in the Maine and Perez trades, and hope for the best.
What's worse in this case is that Schneider is actually worse than Castro, and the Mets will be worse off, than they would have been if they'd just stuck with a straight Castro/Estrada platoon. Even if Schneider's defense makes him better than Estrada, which is possible, you'll have Castro playing probably 40 fewer games than he would have as Estrada's partner. That's a bad trade-off. So I doubt the Mets will be better even in the short term.
I mean really, what is the difference? In fact, I'd rather have Gross than Church.
Good for him.
Well, except Melvin couldn't have gotten Milledge for that deal. Minaya never really wanted, and still doesn't want, Estrada. He wanted Schneider for defense. If Omar wanted Estrada to be the Mets' catcher, yesterday's deal would never have happened, since . . . well, he already has Estrada, doesn't he?
I am going to keep pushing this idea.
Oh, come on, Beano. They're going to non-tender Johnny Estrada. They don't want Johnny Estrada so much, they gave up Lastings ####### Milledge to get somebody else instead of Johnny Estrada. I clearly don't think like Omar Minaya these days, and don't much want to. But there's one thing I know for sure: the one player in the bioverse he was NOT going to give up Lastings Milledge to acquire was Johnny Estrada. Johnny Estrada was the player he gave up Lastings Milledge so he could get rid of. This one's easy.
I'm about 10% serious, and 90% searching for a reason for this trade.
You'd rather have the guy with the career 93 OPS+ than the guy with the 113 OPS+? I mean, it's sort of a defensible view, but in my view Church hits for average better, hits for more power, is a better outfielder (I saw quite enough of Gross in the outfield in Toronto) and runs better. Gross has a better arm and will take a walk more often. I don't think it's that close.
May be they were but didn't get the chance
May be Omar offered Milledge to the A's for Haren, Beane says no, I want ________ and _________ too,
Omar doesn't counter, thinks, "Well Milledge won't get me Haren..."
Later, Omar trades Milledge for Church and Schneider, Beane says to himself, "what a dumbass, I would have given him more than that....
Omar follows a set plan and pulls the trigger too quickly- he settled for BlowDuca because Hernandez and Molina didn't immediately jump at Omar's first offer (which in the end was better than the deal either man later signed for). Omar's not like whoever is running the Yankees, whether he gives an "ultimatum" or not doesn't matter, he jumps, he doesn't hold out for the "best offer", he doesn't pull his offers back and wait a few weeks (let alone months)- he decides to trade a chip and that chip gets traded, he decides he needs a catcher, he will get A catcher, BEFORE he does anything else.
If Lasting's last name was Rodriguez instead of Milledge, this trade wouldn't have happened.
/ducks/
(to the lenny thing, not the reconsidering the trade thing)
Church is really a good player though and his defense is really tremendous. He has an excellent arm and very good range.
If Perez never throws another ML inning, that was still a great trade. Roberto Hernandez was an important part of the 2006 Mets, and even in the playoffs, where he didn't give up a hit.
Church is really a good player though and his defense is really tremendous. He has an excellent arm and very good range.
Church had less than 3 years of ML service entering the 2008 season, so he's still relatively cheap and under club control for a while. If Church can put up seasons like 2007 offensively with his defense, he'll be a fine player for the Mets. If he's actually as good as 2006 or 2008, you have to give Minaya a lot of credit for that deal. Especially now that Randolph seems to be buying into using Castro against lefties.
Schneider used only against RH pitching won't kill the Mets offensively. A .275/.352/.375 line isn't awful. How's his defense looking statistically? I think he's looked like a pretty solid defensive catcher in the games I've watched so far.
Too soon
but then again I did post this on Metsgeek (now Raysgeek) when the trade went down:
Really? Hernandez pitched the bottom of the 8th of game 3 vs St Louis, when the Mets were trailing 5-0.
He pitched the 7th inning in Game 5, when the Mets trailed 4-2.
He got the last out in the 9th inning of Game 2, with the Mets trailing 9-6.
I mean, sure he didn't give up a run, but the closest game he pitched in was a 2 run game, and the Mets didn't win a game he appeared in.
Or am I missing sarcasm? I can't tell.
And they had no real need for him in the regular season with the kind of lead they had.
I never understood the idea that they needed an arm in the pen after Duaner got hurt.
I freely admit that I was wrong about the Soriano-Wilkerson Trade, and about Soriano in general.
However, I still think:
1: Milledge will have more value from 2008-end than Chruch from 2008-end.
2: Milledge will have a better career than Carlos Gomez
I also thought:
3: Church 2008 = Milledge 2008 valuewise
I'm wavering on 3, obviously Church has a significant lead on Milledge 1/3 the way through.
Unfortunately, after a flukish "hot" start, Schnieder is just as worthless as I thought he'd be.
By OPS, Met catchers are 13th/16
1Bs are 14th
LFs are 15th
RFs are 10th (ie: Non-Church RF's blow)
You cannot have a good offense with that many sinkholes.
The failure to date in 2008 is directly attributable to
1: The belief that Schnieder was the answer at C (Jesus Flores sigh)
2: The failure to have a contingency plan in case of a Delgado flop
3: The failure to have a good contingency plan in case of an Alou injury
4: Oliver Perez going from a 120 ERA+ to a 75 ERA+
Church 1.0 WAR as a Met
Frenchy 0.7 WAR as a Met
Schneider 1.2 WAR as a Met
Milledge -2.3 WAR since leaving the Mets
Net Gain for Mets since the trade 5.2 WAR
fWAR has Milledge at 0.6 WAR for his career, 0.6 since leaving the Mets.
rWAR has Milledge at -0.8 WAR for his career, -1.3 since leaving the Mets. And most of that is fielding.
Milledge WAR
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