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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Nats - Acquired Willingham and Olsen

Washington Nationals - Acquired LF Josh Willingham and P Scott Olsen

Emilio Bonifacio, P P.J. Dean, and 2B-OF Jake Smolinski

A very nice pickup for the Nationals.  Willingham is no star and is a poor bet to age well long-term, but he’s a good, average bat for a team that couldn’t find any, as practically every National but Cristian Guzman underperformed offensively this season.  Perhaps Guzman still played well because he’s a see ball-hit ball player that Lenny Harris couldn’t screw up?  Olsen’s been disappointing and a general pain in the ass, but he’s also just going to be 25 for 2009.

The Nats don’t give up too much.  Bonifacio is unlikely to hit enough to ever be a starter.  Dean’s very young and has a solid fastball/curve/change, but he’s yet to pitch in a full-season league and a lot of guys like that fall off the radar as they move to the higher-A leagues.  Smolinski is generally athletic and has a strong arm, but he’s injured a lot, doesn’t really have a defensive position he really excels at, and has displayed very little power so far.  Dean in particular could come back to the haunt the Nats, but the odds are against it.

2009 ZiPS Projection - Scott Olsen
————————————————————————————————-
        W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA   ERA+
————————————————————————————————-
2009     8 13 33 33 192 207 101 27 64 127   4.73   93
————————————————————————————————-
Opt. (15%) 12 10 34 34 208 200   88 26 57 155   4.19 115
Pes. (15%)  6 12 27 27 151 180   94 24 59 90   5.60   78
————————————————————————————————-
Top Comps:  Bill Travers, Randy Lerch

 

2009 ZiPS Projection - Emilio Bonifacio
—————————————————————————————————————-
          AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   SO SB   BA OBP SLG OPS+
—————————————————————————————————————-
2009       545 67 138 20   4   2   45 34 109 28 .253 .296 .316   64
—————————————————————————————————————-
Opt. (15%)  602 85 164 25   5   3   56 41 111 41 .272 .318 .346   78
Pes. (15%)  525 47 126 17   3   1   39 30 108 24 .240 .280 .290   53
—————————————————————————————————————-
Top Comps:  Derrel Thomas, Luis Oforthreevas

 

2009 ZiPS Projection - Josh Willingham
—————————————————————————————————————-
          AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   SO SB   BA OBP SLG OPS+
—————————————————————————————————————-
2009       424 60 112 24   3 18   64 47   93   3 .264 .356 .462 116
—————————————————————————————————————-
Opt. (15%)  476 78 135 29   4 24   81 59   96   6 .284 .382 .513 136
Pes. (15%)  378 40 93 19   2 14   50 38   91   2 .246 .332 .418   98
—————————————————————————————————————-
Top Comps:  Roy Sievers, Al Smith (the baseball player)

 

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 11, 2008 at 05:49 PM | 12 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: November 11, 2008 at 07:24 PM (#3006891)
No comments on Olsen, Dan?
So - what salaries do we project for the two new Nats?
   2. mcopeland Posted: November 11, 2008 at 07:33 PM (#3006901)
Bold projections.
   3. zenbitz Posted: November 11, 2008 at 07:34 PM (#3006903)
   4. zenbitz Posted: November 11, 2008 at 07:35 PM (#3006904)
Probably my most useful post ever
   5. PS is probably angering Americans again Posted: November 11, 2008 at 07:37 PM (#3006908)
That's a lot of </b>bolding...
   6. zonk Posted: November 11, 2008 at 07:51 PM (#3006921)
Perhaps Guzman still played well because he's a see ball-hit ball player that Lenny Harris couldn't screw up?


I understand why career pinch-hitters like Lenny Harris get hitting coach jobs - but it would seem that such career paths don't usually turn out well. I'm thinking of Richie Hebner and Greg Gross among others.

I would think that the fundamental approach of a pinch-hitter - perhaps a role where a hacker of the Harris/Hebner/Gross type actually does make sense - wouldn't be well-suited to lineup and roster as a whole.
   7. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 11, 2008 at 07:59 PM (#3006928)
"Luis Oforthreevas"

Argh, it burns.
   8. ECBucs Posted: November 11, 2008 at 08:17 PM (#3006952)
At one time Hebner had the best plate discipline of anyone on the Pirates.
   9. WhoWantsTeixeiraDessert Posted: November 12, 2008 at 06:00 PM (#3007508)
Willingham could certainly act like a ballplayer.
   10. Sean McNally Posted: November 12, 2008 at 08:57 PM (#3007706)
Al Smith (the baseball player)


For a second, I thought Willingham was being projected as a darkhorse candidate against David Patterson in 2010.
   11. Esoteric Posted: May 07, 2010 at 02:02 AM (#3525179)
So in retrospect, I'd say the Nationals won this trade.
   12. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: May 18, 2010 at 07:31 PM (#3535881)
In all fairness, this was a pre-arbitration salary dump. The Marlins weren't trying to win.

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