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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Tuesday, November 07, 2006

Nats - Signed a Bunch to Minor League Contracts

Washington Nationals - Signed C Danny Ardoin, 2B Alejandro Machado, 2B Joey Thurston, SS Josh Wilson, OF Wayne Lydon, OF Darnell McDonald, P Mike Bacsik, P Felix Diaz, P Josh Hall, P Joel Hanrahan, P Colby Lewis, and P Tim Redding.

Ever finish shopping at a store next to a Dollar Store (or similar type of place) with a big wad of cash in your pocket and cannot avoid the temptation to go in and blow it all on mega-savings?  Jim Bowden has one of those days every November in which he decides to fill up his entire AAA roster in a single day.  Wayne Lydon?  Bizarre 3-Liter Bottle of Old Bay Soda? Joey Thurston?  AAA Batteries Made in Country That Hasn’t Existed Since 1976?  It’s all good!

There are a couple of interesting names here, of course.  Joel Hanrahan was once a real prospect.  Colby Lewis blew his last chance in Texas by getting injured.  Josh Wilson is a better shortstop than either the guy the Nats opened with either of the last 2 years.  Darnell McDonald isn’t as bad as Wayne Lydon.  Wayne Lydon’s fast.  Some meth addicts once thought Tim Redding was good.

No thumbs up or thumbs down for this - it’s just acquiring organizational players.  But Bowden gets points in that only Lydon really isn’t good enough to be in Columbus.  There are worse 5th outfielders than McDonald out there and worse 5th infielders than Josh Wilson, so given enough time, I’m sure Bowden will find them.

2007 ZiPS Projections
——————————————————————————————-
Player       W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA
——————————————————————————————-
Bacsik       4 10 31 18 126 144   76 24 30 70 5.43
Diaz       7   8 48 22 107 117   63 14 26 88 5.30
Hall       6 11 26 26 157 174   90 23 54 79 5.16
Hanrahan     7   9 26 25 136 133   79 19 78 96 5.23
Lewis       5   8 25 23 150 176   88 25 46 70 5.28
Redding     8 11 26 25 159 168   89 22 56 90 5.04

 

2007 ZiPS Projections
———————————————————————————————————
Player     AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB   BA   OBP   SLG
———————————————————————————————————
Ardoin     240 35   57 12 0   5 23 25 88   0 .237 .325 .350
Lydon     535 65 125 16 7   4 36 37 128 30 .234 .285 .312
Machado     359 48   86 11 2   3 30 34 45 14 .240 .310 .306
McDonald   414 46 107 25 1   8 34 31 98 10 .251 .308 .374
Thurston   421 47 108 22 5   6 36 28 59   8 .257 .309 .375
Wilson     449 60 109 22 2   9 41 36 97 20 .243 .301 .361

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 07, 2006 at 06:12 AM | 26 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Exploring Leftist Conservatism since 2008 (ark..) Posted: November 07, 2006 at 11:41 AM (#2232860)
If I have this right, you're saying that Bowden gets no thumbs up for finding six guys whom ZIPs projects to have ERAs, as starters, under 5.50?

You're a harsh man, Szymborski.
   2. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 07, 2006 at 01:39 PM (#2232871)
Personally, I liked a lot of these moves. Not the Lydon one so much, but Wilson, Hanrahan, Diaz, and Hall all have some tiny amount of upside, which is really all you can ask of six-year free agents.
   3. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: November 07, 2006 at 04:29 PM (#2232949)
Diaz's peripherals are nice in that projection and his quick and dirty DIPS ERA is 3.95. Why is the ERA so high? Hit batters?
   4. Azteca Posted: November 07, 2006 at 05:22 PM (#2232981)
Those 5.00 ERAs are all projected in RFK. Adjust those numbers for a more neutral park, and most of them reach 6.00, I bet.
   5. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 07, 2006 at 05:29 PM (#2232983)
I agree with Vlad. There are some interesting players here. If nothing else, their AAA team should be vastly improved.
   6. Mike Green Posted: November 07, 2006 at 05:38 PM (#2232989)
Some people who are not meth addicts liked Redding. Some still do. <lowers arm and hides face in shame>

The park factors for RFK are not extreme after 2005 and 2006.
   7. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: November 07, 2006 at 05:50 PM (#2233001)
IIRC, Mike Emeigh was complementary of Redding last time we talked about him.

Incidentally, it appears as if a few of these guys (Redding, Hanrahan, Wilson and Michael Restovich) got spots on the 40 man roster (
milb). DC signed 21 in all, not sure why only a few were mentioned here.
   8. Azteca Posted: November 07, 2006 at 06:58 PM (#2233036)
The park factors for RFK are not extreme after 2005 and 2006.


I'm no expert on park factors, but I think a 2005 park factor of .860 (for runs) plus a 2006 park factor of .942 (again, for runs) still makes just about any AAA arm, when stats are adjusted, look ok. (#s are from ESPN's page.)

a few of these guys got spots on the 40 man roster


With teams getting a 4th year (in the new CBA) to develop non 40-man roster talent, I've been guessing that the pool of minor league free agents would shrink. (C. Kahrl had something about this in a recent Trans. Analysis at BP.) Teams will more easily keep fringe AAA talent on the 40-man, instead of regularly jettisoning them to make room for younger players. Is this correct, or am I missing something?
   9. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 07, 2006 at 07:17 PM (#2233047)
Unless I'm missing something, it shouldn't be a huge effect on 6-year minor league free agents. You'll have a lag of a year or so where some extra talent doesn't have to be exposed, but given the fringe nature of minor league free agents, you'll just have them be a little older in the long run. Guys like Greg LaRocca will still become minor league free agents, but at 27 instead of 26 - you're still going to have the exact same upwards pressure on the 40-man roster after the lag effect is done.
   10. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: November 07, 2006 at 07:44 PM (#2233064)
I agree, Azteca - though that the total impact on the mlfa pool should be small (as there are way more FAs than spots). You should also see more guys signed to 40 man spots (though this year should not be considered indicative of that trend).
   11. The Answer to the TWolves (GMoney) Posted: November 07, 2006 at 07:45 PM (#2233066)
Bowden snagged Restovich too which could be part of cheap platoon with Ryan Church to replace Soriano.
   12. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 07, 2006 at 07:55 PM (#2233075)
I thought they hated Church. They certainly acted like they did last season. I'd say its more likely you see the NOOK!
   13. Chris Needham Posted: November 07, 2006 at 08:46 PM (#2233123)
It's not clear who hated Church. Bowden spoke highly of him, but he speaks highly of everyone and can't be trusted!

I think much of the problem was with Frank -- it was a manliness issue in that Church doesn't like to play hurt. Maybe with a new manager, if they ever figure that out, he'll get a fresh chance.

By all accounts, the Nats are going to pocket Soriano's salary, and there aren't upper-level prospects to fill in. It's almost Church's job to lose.
   14. The Answer to the TWolves (GMoney) Posted: November 07, 2006 at 10:36 PM (#2233178)
Who else do they have to play outfield? Guillen, Church, Restovich, and Kearns? I guess now I think about it Church would have to play CF and there is no way Resto could do that.
   15. Raskolnikov Posted: November 07, 2006 at 10:42 PM (#2233185)
What's the status of Alex Escobar?

Had no idea that Church raked so much last season.
   16. Hungry Hungry Hipolito Pichardo Posted: November 07, 2006 at 11:16 PM (#2233198)
They also signed Jermaine van Buren from the Sox (Red). 45.1 IP, 2.99 ERA, 46K/18BB, 2 HR at Pawtucket last year, but an 11.77 ERA, 15 BB/8 K, 15 H in 13 MLB innings.
   17. 1k5v3L Posted: November 07, 2006 at 11:23 PM (#2233201)
The Nats also signed two former Dbacks, C Juan Brito and P Billy White.
   18. The George Sherrill Selection Posted: November 07, 2006 at 11:25 PM (#2233205)
Mmmmm, Old Bay Soda.
   19. Chris Needham Posted: November 08, 2006 at 12:11 AM (#2233228)
Church has been a stud. But injuries and general managerial incompetence has kept them from giving him a fair chance.

For next year, the OF looks to Kearns in right. And some sort of combo of Church/Logan/Restovich in left and right.

Alex Escobar hit up a storm (but can't play center). He's arb eligible, and I think the Nats are inclined to keep him. He'll be in the mix, too.
   20. Chris Needham Posted: November 08, 2006 at 01:34 AM (#2233267)
I should mention, too, that the Nats are very high on Kory Casto as an outfielder. He was their player of the year last year, but he's not especially young, and hasn't played above AA.

He's got a pretty good shot of coming north next year, despite all that.
   21. Azteca Posted: November 08, 2006 at 06:02 AM (#2233329)
Church is simply in the wrong organization. Those DC heathens need to trade him to Colorado. :)
   22. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 08, 2006 at 09:32 PM (#2233552)
IIRC, Mike Emeigh was complementary of Redding last time we talked about him.


He beat Durham to death last year. Redding's not a bad gamble; I think he could help someone as a fifth starter, although the Nats, with their weak defense, probably aren't the best fit for him. Hanrahan was showing some signs of coming around last year, too.

-- MWE
   23. Hurdle's Heroes (SuperBaes) Posted: November 11, 2006 at 05:47 PM (#2235277)
Josh Hall was a Reds product from Bowden's time there; don't forget the "Rick Pitino Loyalty" factor in decisions like these. Thurston was once regarded well with the Dodgers, Redding had an occasional decent start with the Astros, and Ardoin is respectable on defense.

I actually wish the Pirates, among other small markets, would do this. Throw everything at the wall and see what sticks. It can't be a worse idea than signing well known has beens like Burnitz and Randa. Yeah, I'm bitter. So?
   24. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: November 28, 2006 at 04:42 AM (#2247068)
Why did Wilson projected SB jump from 11 with Colorado to 20 with DC?
   25. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 28, 2006 at 04:46 AM (#2247071)
Dunno - my guess is that I put the optimistic line.
   26. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 28, 2006 at 05:10 AM (#2247101)
for the stolen bases that is

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