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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Tuesday, November 29, 2005

New York Mets - Ink Wagner, Buy Redman

New York Mets - Signed P Billy Wagner to a 4-year contract worth $43 million; purchased the contract of OF Tike Redman from the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Like the B.J. Ryan signing, the Mets are overpaying for true excellence.  I still feel Wagner’s riskier than Ryan - more miles in the arm, older, and more of an injury history.  He still should be terrific, however.  No surprises with this contract as Wagner to Shea has been considered all-but-done for awhile now.

Tike Redman isn’t suited for a starting role in center, but as a 4th or 5th outfielder as long as you don’t need a defensive caddy in center, he’s quite adequate.  The Pirates were just going to dump him anyway, so the Mets probably aren’t paying much for his rights.

2006 ZiPS Projection - Tike Redman
————————————————————————————-
AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB   BA   OBP   SLG
————————————————————————————-
486 58 137 19 5   5 50 31 42 13 .282 .326 .372

 

2006 ZiPS Projection - Billy Wagner
———————————————————————-
W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA
———————————————————————-
5   1 70   0   71   51   20   6 19 82 2.54

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 29, 2005 at 01:04 AM | 28 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. 1k5v3L Posted: November 29, 2005 at 02:07 AM (#1750474)
yay. 486 at bats for redman. i've got $2 on him in my nl only auction...

if redman gets 486 at bats in 06, mets fans here will commit mass suicide...

[i know, dan, i know.]
   2. Rob Base Posted: November 29, 2005 at 02:18 AM (#1750482)
Is Tike really better than Prentice?
   3. CrosbyBird Posted: November 29, 2005 at 02:29 AM (#1750488)
Ouch. That's a ton of money for a long time.

Still, the Blue Jays screwed us with the Ryan contract. I think it's probably the market for Wagner... he's more established as a "proven closer" than Ryan.

I would prefer the Ryan contract though.
   4. LTV100 Posted: November 29, 2005 at 02:36 AM (#1750493)
And two premier draft picks for the Phillies: #18 and #31. I'm 99% certain that Wagner is the highest rated free agent and thus definately gets the Met's 1st rounder plus the highest sandwich pick.
   5. akrasian Posted: November 29, 2005 at 02:45 AM (#1750501)
I'm pretty sure that the order of sandwich picks is decided by previous season's records. For instance, the Dbacks had the 31st pick last season, for losing Richie Sexson. I'm positive that Sexson wasn't the highest rated free agent.
   6. Darren Posted: November 29, 2005 at 02:52 AM (#1750507)
Is Tike really better than Prentice?

No. That move makes little sense to me. Must be defensive stuff that I'm missing.
   7. Rob Base Posted: November 29, 2005 at 02:56 AM (#1750512)


No. That move makes little sense to me. Must be defensive stuff that I'm missing.


And that Omar is getting? They're both speedy black guys. No way Omar's metrics are more advanced than that.
   8. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: November 29, 2005 at 03:15 AM (#1750531)
Giving a four-year deal to a pitcher with Wagner's history is pure lunacy. $11M/yr represents a 20-30% premium over his actual marginal value (if healthy)--which is about what you would expect to have to pay for an elite free agent. I just don't like his odds for staying healthy for four seasons, but that probably goes without saying.

At least for the Mets, Wagner (along with Delgado and possibly Ramirez) represents the missing piece they likely need to end the Braves' run atop the NL East. The Jays are a couple major components from being a serious threat, IMHO. So if you have to overpay for an ace reliever, the Mets are in the right point in the success cycle to make that sort of move.
   9. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: November 29, 2005 at 03:31 AM (#1750542)
the mets are stacked for 2006-2008
   10. Starlin of the Slipstream (TRHN) Posted: November 29, 2005 at 03:56 AM (#1750580)
Screw the success cycle. You take your wins where you can ger them. According to WARP, Ryan has been worth 5 wins above replacement the last two seasons. Depending on how much value you put on leverage, that could be worth as much as 7-10 wins above replacement. You win by being above average where you can be. Outside Giles or Furcal (depending on your opinion of his defense), where would the BJs find that many wins? Down on the farm?

Owners/GMs are so stupid and there's so much money out there that Szym is probably going to be surprised at every signing. we're seeing in action the exact behavior described in Lords of the Realm...every time the owners get money, they get stupid with the free agents. I think I read somewhere that the Cubs wil give Furcal'll a hundred million. And the 3/30 everyone has Giles down for to sign with their team is looking unrealistic.
   11. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: November 29, 2005 at 03:56 AM (#1750581)
They're both speedy black guys. No way Omar's metrics are more advanced than that.

Hmm, so will TO be Omar's next target? He'll have some free time this winter to work in the batting cage. He'd be one helluva defensive outfielder.
   12. ColonelTom Posted: November 29, 2005 at 04:19 AM (#1750610)
And two premier draft picks for the Phillies

I'd definitely take my chances with one of the next tier of closers on the market like Hoffman or Gordon, and pocket two picks (including a division rival's first-rounder) and a sizable chunk of change. Score another one for Pat Gillick.
   13. DCW3 Posted: November 29, 2005 at 06:36 AM (#1750784)
Three Redmans in the major leagues, and not a single Methodman. How strange.
   14. meet the mets Posted: November 29, 2005 at 06:39 AM (#1750789)
i couldn't agree more with colonelTom. Wagner is too overpriced and old to warrant that contract, especially having to sign him before mid-december. Signing gordon and leaving some money to add depth to the bullpen and save those picks would have been better. But i guess mets fans must temper their expectations from Omar.

My dictionary: Omar Minaya--over excited gm to finally have a major budget to play with decides to deplete the farm system and sacrifice future picks to avoid replenishing the farm. i.e. nightmare gm
   15. Robinson Cano Plate Like Home Posted: November 29, 2005 at 06:45 AM (#1750796)
'Course, signing Gordon means giving up a pick, too.
   16. Rob Base Posted: November 29, 2005 at 02:20 PM (#1751017)
They're both speedy black guys. No way Omar's metrics are more advanced than that.

Hmm, so will TO be Omar's next target? He'll have some free time this winter to work in the batting cage. He'd be one helluva defensive outfielder.


Don't think that Omar wouldn't do it for the network.
   17. The Answer to the TWolves (GMoney) Posted: November 29, 2005 at 03:06 PM (#1751074)
Teams get supplemental picks based on their previous seasons record with the team with the worst record picking 1st and best record last. If a team gets more than 1 supplemental pick this pick is added after every team in the sandwich round has had 1 pick in round 1.
   18. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 29, 2005 at 03:12 PM (#1751082)
"Must be defensive stuff that I'm missing."

Subjectively, Tike is a horrible defender. Slow reactions, poor routes, and the worst throwing arm on a team that also had Matt Lawton last year. His good pure speed is his only asset in the field.

My joy at getting this bum off our roster is large enough to overwhelm my rage at the image of McClatchy and the Nuttings further fattening their wallets.
   19. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 29, 2005 at 03:13 PM (#1751083)
Basically, he's a slightly smarter and slower version of Alex Sanchez.
   20. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 29, 2005 at 03:15 PM (#1751085)
Also, that Wagner contract is terrifying, even more so than the Ryan one. Wagner's a great pitcher, but his arm is only held together by force of will.
   21. Kyle S Posted: November 29, 2005 at 03:38 PM (#1751119)
And the 3/30 everyone has Giles down for to sign with their team is looking unrealistic.

Very true, and very prescient. Lo and behold, everyone decries the lunacy of the Blue Jays offer to Giles.
   22. Martin Hemner Posted: November 29, 2005 at 03:43 PM (#1751125)
Three Redmans in the major leagues, and not a single Methodman. How strange.

How strange? I thought it was How High?
   23. Sam M. Posted: November 29, 2005 at 03:48 PM (#1751134)
Lo and behold, everyone decries the lunacy of the Blue Jays offer to Giles.

What am I, chopped liver? Not everyone decried it! ;-)
   24. 1k5v3L Posted: November 29, 2005 at 04:08 PM (#1751177)
I'm pretty sure that the order of sandwich picks is decided by previous season's records. For instance, the Dbacks had the 31st pick last season, for losing Richie Sexson. I'm positive that Sexson wasn't the highest rated free agent.

this is correct.

i suppose redman will have to replace lastings in the hearts of mets fans.
   25. Kyle S Posted: November 29, 2005 at 04:24 PM (#1751203)
My apologies, Sam. I have a tendency to use "totalizing" (to borrow a word from high school policy debate and unveil my nerdy heritage) phrases instead of hedging by saying "most people." I should know better.
   26. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 29, 2005 at 07:03 PM (#1751566)
I've heard that the contract is actually 4 years at $10million per year, and then a 5th year (team option) for $10million. However, if the Mets refuse the option, they have to pay a buyout of $3million. Hence, the $43million/4years announcement. The final deal could be $50million/5 years, with the last year landing in Wagners age 39 season.

Ouch.
   27. HowardMegdal Posted: December 02, 2005 at 08:33 PM (#1757048)
And the only way it happens is if Wagner is pitching at an elite level, making it worth the Mets while to keep him around. In other words, if this ends up being a 5/50 deal, it was an extremely good signing.
   28. chris p Posted: December 03, 2005 at 03:50 AM (#1757674)
this makes the mets favorites to win the world series. brilliant move.

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