New York Yankees
Acquired SS Alex Rodriguez from the New York Yankees for 2B Alfonso Soriano and a player to be named.
Hell with it - if I wait for an announcement, everyone will be tired of it by then.
Highway robbery by the Yankees even considering that Team Captain’s apparent unwillingness to do what’s best for the team is preventing the Yanks from getting the full benefits of the trade.
The current plan seems to be to move A-Rod to 3B but that can always change. And should, too, since the Yankees acquired a bunch of 3B options that won’t be able to be moved to 2B. Houston or Lamb can fill a 3B hole without being too wretched, but neither will do the same at 2B. The best thing for the Yanks to do now is to leave A-Rod at short, tell Derek Jeter that being a leader isn’t just a pretty label, and move him to 2nd and eventually center.
What the Rangers get out of this? A much bleaker future than before the A-Rod trade. They pay the Yankees roughly a *third* of what A-Rod’s owed for the privilege of making the team significantly worse. Soriano’s a much better player than a lot of people, including myself, thought he would be, but he’s not A-Rod.
If the Rangers are able to keep Soriano long-term, they’ll have to give him a deal not too far from the 12-18 a year the Yanks are paying A-Rod, which’ll eat into any savings and payroll flexibility.
If the Rangers are not able to keep Soriano long-term, then they’ve lost 10 wins a year. They had enough problems *with* the wins A-Rod brought and would be that much further from making a dent in the West.
Mike Young returns to short and should handle it pretty nicely.
Really, there’s not much of a way the Rangers get any advantage in this. This wasn’t a world-class offense - it was a mediocre offense in 2003 *with* the 2nd-best SS in history.
2004 ZiPS Projections
———————————————————————————————————
Player AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG
———————————————————————————————————
Soriano 701 125 223 45 3 39 135 35 140 37 .318 .361 .558
Rodriguez 628 118 184 29 3 50 140 91 124 14 .293 .394 .588
Dan Szymborski
Posted: February 16, 2004 at 12:55 AM |
38 comment(s)
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So basically, the Yankees gave the Padres back all the money they spent on signing and developing Phillips and swapped a bench version of White for a bench version of Trammell.
Not as unimpressive as White. Sigh....
Plus, the Yankees get a 21-year-old left-hander who throws in the high 90s and who will start the season at Double-A. I know that Phillips' wildness has been a problem, but he still has time to harness his control. Even if Trammell for White is a wash (and I'd rather have Trammell for the reasons mentioned above), the Yankees come out ahead with the inclusion of a prospect in the deal. Great trade by Cashman.
RossyW, I'm on your side. But I'm not in full agreement with you here. I agree that dumping Trammell right after 2001 wouldn't make sense (in most circumstances). But signing him to a multi-year guaranteed contract didn't make a lot of sense either, especially since that was his age 29 season. Sign him for, say, $1.5 M for 2002 (what he was actually paid that year) and see if he sustains that level of production and stays healthy. Then see who else is available via trade or from your own system and decide if he's worth keeping around another year.
A player like Trammell may indeed be worth keeping around at a higher price, but there's little reason to take the risk of a long-term guaranteed contract.
I'm not happy with how things turned out, but I'm not sure there was a cheaper way to keep him, or better options if the Padres had let him go back then.
Anyway, I was assuming that 2002 was his first or maybe second arb-eligible year.
But if that's not the case, I don't think it really changes things all that much. If it cost $9 M to buy out the last arb year and 2 FA years, that first arb year is definitely less than $3M, and probably more like $2 M. Sign him for 2002, then decide if you still want him around. Maybe even offer him arbitration in hopes of getting a draft pick if someone else signs him.
[Keanu-esque "whoa" and head-shake]
Al Levine, late of the WORLD CHAMPION ANAHEIM ANGELS, will step in to throw some innings for the Rays.
GGC
I liked Torre's quote:
"I suggested we want Billy to come up here," said Torre, who is not close to Connors and could have been speaking sarcastically. "This way we could all benefit from his knowledge."
It should be recalled that Billy Connors, a.k.a. the Guru, never had much success in his private sessions with Hideki Irabu.
Contreras needs to pitch regularly, period.
btw, I think Contreras will be able to see that Torre's "lie" was inadvertent, and that it was Torre who was deceived by a willful lie.
But there's a difference these days. A long reliever back then would pitch 3-4, sometimes 6-7 innings. Not on average, but often enough. Managers would clip starters in the 2nd inning if they didn't have it. Now it seems like pitchers get to go until they face 25-30 batters, and if that's in the 4th or 7th it doesn't matter. It seemed like there were a lot more complete games, but also a lot more 2 inning starts back then, giving long relievers longer appearances (better for breaking in young guys in games that don't matter). So maybe the bullpen thing wouldn't work as well these days.
But overall, I'd rather break my young guys in out of the pen, unless you've got the rare case of a guy like Prior or Clemens, who just blows people away from the beginning.
And yeah Earl sure did get a lot of mileage out of pitchers that couldn't whiff anyone. But most of those guys had good control, right? Didn't he always have really good defensive teams and wasn't Memorial Stadium generally a pitcher's park also?
(1) Get him acclimated to major league life in a low pressure role (middle relieving allows a manager to pick his player's situations) where he can work on his non-out pitches.
(2) Win baseball games (because a potential prospect with 2 good pitches would make for a bad starter, but a great reliever).
I might be going crazy, but I thought *those* were the advantages of the prospect-in-a-relief-role strategy. The pitcher doesn't have enough pitch variety to succeed as a starter in the majors, but his two pitches are good enough to allow him to give you quality help out of the bullpen. If you send the prospect to the minors to work on those pitches, then you have to carry some other, lower quality two-pitch guy in the bullpen. I don't think the Weaver model was intended to develop pitchers exclusively. I thought it was intended to develop pitchers AND win ballgames.
And I also don't think that Earl would have approved of calling up players from the minors who had not perfected at least two pitches (in other words, these are the guys who would not be helped as much pitching in the high minors, because they could just rely on those two pitches).
http://www.pubdim.net/baseballlibrary/ballplayers/M/Martinez_Ramon.stm
If Griffey has a no-trade clause to the Orioles, he could block the trade. If he didn't he'd be forced to retire or ask for a release from his contract (which given his salary and recent performance he'd never do) in order to avoid playing for the Orioles.
Many of the "two-pitch" ponies out there throw fastball-slider. Or 4-seamer/2-seamer/slider. Either way, you're not varying speeds enough. The only true changes of pace are:
1) The true 12-6 curve
a. Is the 12-6 the big sweeping curveball?
b. What's the difference between a circle change and a straight change?
Johan -
Maybe Shapiro just underestimated the young players. He didn't expect Gerut to be ready this year, but Garcia's injury allowed Gerut to establish himself.
But why include Miceli? He's been good in his short time with the Indians: 15 IP, 19K, 6BB, 1 HR, 9 H. He seemed like a good candidate for a Witasick-style trade. Take a fungible middle reliever who puts up a good half-season, then trade him after the all-star break to a desperate team who will pay more than he's worth (aka Buy low, sell high).
But if the PTBNL in this trade is a nobody, then why include Miceli? This seems like buying low...and then selling low. Don't the Indians still have use for effective relievers?
I think Shapiro got Garcia and Spencer because, as you note, he wasn't sure who would be ready and who would pan out. Plus, signing Garcia cheap, if he does well, you can trade him.
I would think this package had better have brought back something good, or it does make the Indians look kind of silly.
I read that Garcia was in tears when he heard the news. Poor guy. He finally gets a shot to play and delivers, then he gets hurt and gets sent somewhere with 143 outfielders.
Maybe they got one of those twin guys from the Matrix movie.
I'm guessing that non-substantial was mistakenly put in front of player rather than cash. It would seem to be a stupid thing to say about a player you just acquired.
It's my understanding that almost immediately upon signing the contract, Garcia hurt his wrist doing something he shouldn't have been doing. (Playing basketball or something.)
If it was motocross or dart-catching, okay. But basketball? Are these guys supposed to spend the winter locked up in one of those anti-aging chambers so nothing happens to them?
Of course, $10,000 does seem a little pathetic. I hope the wealthiest club in baseball at least threw in a couple of steak dinners.
Okay, but $10K? What's the point of that? Why would the Indians even bother? Hold these guys and see if anyone wants them at the deadline. $10K? $10-freaking-K?
Chris Smith was the dune-buggy pitcher.
"Designated outfielder Charles Gipson and pitcher Mike Thurman for assignment."
Are these the happiest of possible words? Yeah, they're not the most poetic.
I took that to mean the Indians didn't really want to get rid of Miceli (yet), but they had to include him to seal the deal.
All indications are that the Indians won't get anything of value from NY. So, Garcia for nothing wasn't a sweet enough deal for the Yankees, the Indians had to throw in some more?
When was the last time one team gave up two inexpensive, mediocre big leaguers for absolutely nothing? Ruben Sierra cost the Yankees a "prospect," so why not these two?
As far as the 40-man roster goes, does the DL count? There were plenty of vets on the DL to start the season. Wickman, Wohlers, and Gutierrez come to mind.
Matsui indeed took over in center while he was out, and put up some All-Star-worthy numbers in that time, so Torre didn't have to worry too much about the drop-off.
Heck, forget Jordan, what about Ozzie Guillen!
Not that Franco doesn't make me reach for the Pepto, but bear in mind that if Macho 'Mando were able to close out that Brian Jordan game, they never would've HAD to have Franco face him...
Armando Benitez, career: 4.77 BB/9.
Rob Dibble, career: 4.49 BB/9.
Gregg Olson, career: 4.42 BB/9.
Other well-known closers like Lee Smith had BB rates approaching Armando's for multi-year runs at approximately the same age.
The biggest successful active walkmeister I can find, other than guys already mentioned, is probably Todd Jones.
Todd Jones, career: 4.14 BB/9.
Benitez's walk rate is high, but not unheard-of, and his control has improved somewhat with age.
In his first five seasons as a closer, Jones put up BB/9 of 4.70, 5.02, 4.50, 5.12, and 4.75. If you're going to scratch Dibble because the end of his career increased his rate, you have to put Jones back in because the end of his career decreased his.
Ron Villone isn't a star, but he's a respectable professional, and in the ninth season of his career, he's carrying a 4.77 BB/9.
Scott Sauerbeck's one of the better situational lefties in the game. Over his career, he's got 5.58 BB/9.
Mike James put up a 128 ERA+ in seven seasons as a setup man. His career BB/9: 4.27.
Hector Carrasco, career: 4.43 BB/9 (though he's improved on that considerably in the Mexican League this year).
Heathcliff Slocumb, career: 5.11 BB/9.
Ricky Bottalico, career: 4.55 BB/9.
Mike Fetters, career: 4.35 BB/9. In his three seasons as Milwaukee's primary closer, it was 4.63/9.
Norm Charlton, 1992-1997, when he was a closer: 4.33 BB/9.
There are lots of modern relievers with BB rates comparable to Benitez's.
The question is - will anyone take Sterling Hitchcock? He'll have to go (or another position player) when Contreras comes back.
Orosco could prove useful there...
Why not Hitch and the Buffalo for Drew and Kline, or Kline and Marrero (when off the DL)?
Just dreamin out loud.
This might be useful in the World Series against San Francisco, to get Bonds out.
If I have kids, I hope they're left-handed.
scott
i shoulda known that.
I'm still baffled by this one. I'd've signed him for half that salary without the no-trade clause, but that's about it.
anyway, it's interesting to the see the Reds make more moves without a GM than with one.
They've at least recognized their problem, and admitting you have a problem is the first step to fixing it. They get points for that. But, they seem committed to fielding their best team in the medium term - while Dunn and Kearns are still affordable, but before any help from the low minors arrives. Next year or the year after seems to be their goal, but I don't think it's realistic.
Next Year's Reds
I don't see the Greek God of Strikeouts getting any regular time at third next season.
Jorge Posada's knees, you forget you belong to a former minor league infielder who switched to catching relatively late, so you don't have NEARLY the wear and tear of a typical 32-year old catcher.
Navarro is worth getting excited about. A 19 year old doing that well at AA is pretty special. Though I have heard the size issue brought up more than once.
Thats it at the upper levels for the Yanks, though Danny Borrell looked good before blowing out his sholder.
There are some interesting guys at the lower levels.
Boone for Claussen, Manning, and $1M
"Reliever GABE WHITE arrived at the Yankees' Tampa complex on Sunday and threw off flat ground yesterday with no pain. White, acquired from the Reds on July 31, may be ready in about three weeks."
The Yanks' other option was to non-tender him. But with Randa and Lowell re-signed, Boone is probably the best remaining 3B option on the market. If he was made an FA, a few other teams would have been interested (and probably enough to offer a multi-year deal) and either the Yanks risk losing him or they'd end up outbidding everyone and paying him this anyway (and maybe getting stuck with a 2nd or 3rd year).
Boone probably is best suited to the Enrique Wilson role of super-utility player, with an emphasis on spelling the regular thirdbaseman to be named later.
Cashman would be smart to go find a hit first-defense second catcher, like a Todd Pratt, to spell Jorge and occassionally PH late in games.
The OF situation looks to be (or at least it should be) Bernie in left, Matsui in center and Sheffield in right, with Garcia and Rivera on the bench, but those 4th and 5th OFs are problematic because none of the five is particularly sterling defensively.
Though they don't grab the backpage, the Boss needs to learn that spare parts and role players can make the difference between 96 wins and staying home and 101 wins and going to the playoffs.
I agree that weak benches have been a problem and I'll agree that Boone would make a great supersub -- he can play 2B, 3B, and SS and therefore presumably wouldn't have that much trouble picking up 1B and corner OF skills (not that you'd want to play him in those positions too frequently).
But what options are there really for "regular 3B to be named later" for this year? We pooh-pooh Boone a lot around here, but he was 8th in RARP among 3B last year and everyone above him is unattainable right now as are most of the ones immediately below him, unless you want to work a trade for Wes Helms or sign Vinny Castilla as your "regular 3B". Probably the most realistic and reasonably attractive options would be to see if you can trade for Crede or Beltre who both had pretty miserable years last year and might be available. Maybe Phil Nevin?
Now he was just 15th in RARP among 3B in 2002. But even there, everyone ahead of him is either unavailable or a dicier option than Boone (Batista, Bell, Ventura, Hillenbrand, Perry).
How's Minnesota feeling about Koskie and his contract these days?
These are ugly days for 3B and Boone really is the best option for 3B for the Yanks.
Why is having two good bench hitters problematic? Garcia's defense is not good, but Rivera's is. He's no Mike Cameron, but he does have a good arm and patrols his corner outfield spot well enough. Rivera would probably start on half the teams in the majors -- I still think he'd be a .270-.280/25HR/80RBI type of hitter -- so he's a good guy to have on the bench.
The Yankees' Enrique Wilson fetish continues to confuse me. Wouldn't D'Angelo Jimenez look good right about now? The at bats wasted on Wilson are costly. He can't hit, and he's not a particularly great fielder. There's probably a Rule V guy, AAA free agent or MLB FA cannon fodder who is better. They could bring up Brian Myrow (I keep beating that drum), who can play 2B and 3B (and probably SS, if called upon) and had a .450 OBP with some pop in AA last year. Sure, he's 27, but do you think Wilson would even have a .350 OBP in AA at this point?
me, i would have let Boone walk, moved jeter and get someone that can play defense and hit like boone to play short.
I'd think it's much more likely Jeter could handle 3rd adequately than centerfield.
They could have moved Jeter this year, forgone Sheffield, signed Cameron and Tejada, and suffered a noodle arm for a year or two in right field. Half the games are played in a park with a short right field, so the bad arm there wouldn't cost you too many runs.
Cameron would look real good running down balls between Bernie and Matsui in the corners.
It's hard enough finding 3B who hit like Boone, SS who hit like him are in even shorter supply -- though they are more available at the moment I suppose if you're willing to pay the price.
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