New York Yankees
Acquired SS Alex Rodriguez from the New York Yankees for 2B Alfonso Soriano and a player to be named.
Hell with it - if I wait for an announcement, everyone will be tired of it by then.
Highway robbery by the Yankees even considering that Team Captain’s apparent unwillingness to do what’s best for the team is preventing the Yanks from getting the full benefits of the trade.
The current plan seems to be to move A-Rod to 3B but that can always change. And should, too, since the Yankees acquired a bunch of 3B options that won’t be able to be moved to 2B. Houston or Lamb can fill a 3B hole without being too wretched, but neither will do the same at 2B. The best thing for the Yanks to do now is to leave A-Rod at short, tell Derek Jeter that being a leader isn’t just a pretty label, and move him to 2nd and eventually center.
What the Rangers get out of this? A much bleaker future than before the A-Rod trade. They pay the Yankees roughly a *third* of what A-Rod’s owed for the privilege of making the team significantly worse. Soriano’s a much better player than a lot of people, including myself, thought he would be, but he’s not A-Rod.
If the Rangers are able to keep Soriano long-term, they’ll have to give him a deal not too far from the 12-18 a year the Yanks are paying A-Rod, which’ll eat into any savings and payroll flexibility.
If the Rangers are not able to keep Soriano long-term, then they’ve lost 10 wins a year. They had enough problems *with* the wins A-Rod brought and would be that much further from making a dent in the West.
Mike Young returns to short and should handle it pretty nicely.
Really, there’s not much of a way the Rangers get any advantage in this. This wasn’t a world-class offense - it was a mediocre offense in 2003 *with* the 2nd-best SS in history.
2004 ZiPS Projections
———————————————————————————————————
Player AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG
———————————————————————————————————
Soriano 701 125 223 45 3 39 135 35 140 37 .318 .361 .558
Rodriguez 628 118 184 29 3 50 140 91 124 14 .293 .394 .588
Dan Szymborski
Posted: February 16, 2004 at 12:55 AM |
38 comment(s)
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I should have clarified. I meant, hit like Boone did with the Yankees...
BA: .236
Not as good as Minnesota would be feeling about, say, Nick Johnson or Alfonso Soriano and their respective contracts. Then again, an article actually ran in the Star Tribune last summer talking about how Koskie isn't metrosexual enough for the Twin Cities. He would be lost in New York.
And he provides the flexibility to consider moving Soriano to OF or another team and get a new 3B.
And he provides a fairly legitimate backup to Jeter at SS (God forbid!)
And he took Wakefield deep and it really twists the Boston fans off.
It's all good for George and it only cost $5.7m.
And no way Nelson is back.
Myrow might have made more sense than Choate, though, given their need at 3B.
However, if they were going to move him, they picked up something useful.
He can be a lefy masher, but i'm not convinced he can be a good everyday player.
I'll miss Nick Johnson, and I hope he has a great career, but I think this is a good deal for both teams.
I believe we had the same discussion last year when Rivera's ZIPS came out.
This seems strange to me:
Johnson, at age 25, went 284/422/472 in the majors, but projects to 283/413/482 next year.
Rivera, at age 25, went 325/374/461 in AAA and 266/304/468 in the majors but projects to 310/358/488 next year.
It seems like something is skewing this. Perhaps Johnson's injury problems in 01 and 02 (assuming ZIPS uses 3 years of data), perhaps that Rivera was repeating a level that he already mashed.
Bay: 0.283 0.389 0.476
I dunno...
I wrote this in the Vasquez thread:
Right, the best way to look at the Yankees payroll is to use the "tax" salaries. I'm sure if the Yankees have any concern for payroll, it would be the tax number and not the real number.
Tax Salaries: Posada 10.2, Flaherty 0.77, Giambi 17.15, Jeter 18.9, Boone 5.7, Bernie 12.5, Matsui 7, Wilson 0.70, Sheffield 13, Soriano 5, Mussina 14.75, Contreras 8, Lieber 1.75, Weaver 5.5, Rivera 10, Karsay 5.56, Hammond 2.4, Gordon 3.75, Quantril 3.3, Vazquez 10, Heredia 1.8, Henson 2.7.
That's $160.43M for 22 players, 21 of whom should be on the ML roster. Add 14 minimum players to fill out the 40 man (14*300K=4.2) and the Yankees tax payroll is $164.63 with four spots open.
Assume Pettitte stays and it goes to say $176 mil.
Three more spots: CF? 1B (how bout little G)? 5th OF?
Overall, they wont get to $200M, but unless they move Weaver and Hammond, $190M seems likely.
I know about the $7.6mil, thats why I said the $176M would likely end up at about $190M, i dont expect them to spend $14M on those last 3 players, though you never know.
FOr the salary info, go to the hompage link.
How sure are you that all the rest of the 40 man roster make the ML minimum salary? I dont think that is the case as I recall AAA players being considered highly paid in the high 150s. I think the minor leagues have independent salaries unless they are like Henson and have a ML deal.
Michael
Three win shares = one win, right? But...WS are to some extent a function of team success. If Javy Vasquez had pitched as he did in Montre-Juan, but for the New York Yankees, he'd beat 21 easily.
I'd take a look at my calendar if I were you, chief.
Year TM ERA+
The factors #4 outlined are huge.
ERA+, Jeff Weaver
1999 - 89
65 (half season)
I think that's a huge assumption. NY (especially the Bronx) is a pressure cooker -- and pressure in a cooker builds over time. NY is also very harsh to a guy who is struggling; once Whitson got off badly in 1986, it mushroomed. Moreover, there was another big difference in 1986: Sweet Lou took over as manager, and if there's someone (particularly early in his managerial career) who was not exactly adept at relieving pressure on his players, it was Piniella.
And the trajectory of Whitson's recovery after leaving New York was pretty damned dramatic. Or do you disagree he was, plain and simple, an outstanding pitcher in 1989 and 1990?
Now I'm wondering about Brown. You've got him falling from slightly under 7.9K/9 to 6.8K/9. Even with the .5 league drop and no more Dodger Stadium (how is Yankee Stadium with respect to K rates), that's a pretty big fall. Is that based on age? Because with fewer BIPs being converted to outs by the Yanks defense, it seems like Brown's K rate would receive a little bump as some innings that previously went GB out, K, GB out become GB out, K, single to left, K. In other words, doesn't a good defense in some sense suppress K rates while a bad defense inflates them? Or am I missing something?
You don't seem to get it. Average pitchers come to New York and are expected to be better than they are. When that doesn't happen, they are ridiculed by the press, fans, and the owner. Not suprisingly, they hit rock bottom.
If you were an accountant in San Diego and no one gave a damn about your performance and then you took a job with a high profile firm in New York for more money than you were worth, where you were under intense scrutiny, it is not unreasonable to think that your work would be effected by this.
I strongly suspect that the reason why the Yankees were not more aggressive with Pettitte is because they had this deal with LA wrapped up and ready to go if Pettitte did not accept their final offer (and from a Yankee standpoint, there's a lot of value in getting Weaver out of NY).
If that report's accurate, I'm pretty unimpressed with the deal for the Dodgers.
And it's fine from the Yankees' perspective. Even if he'd been put in the rotation, Weaver would have been on a very short leash. And from their perspective -- a pennant-winner with $15 M sunk in Weaver already -- gambling on Brown is a reasonable bet.
Now here's a question. Where does Brown rank in the list of all-time greatest pitchers after age 30? Through 29, his best full season ERA+ was 119. Since then:
30 136
this could backfire if Brown gets injured, as he's basically costing the yankees 18m this year. but not a bad move at all if he's healthy.
and the dodgers save cash, which is what any team not named the redsox and yankees are trying to do in the current market.
See? Substitute the name "Vaughn" for "Brown" and you have the exact quote from Met-watchers during the 2001 off-season...
The main difference with the Vaughn theory being that if Brown is healthy this year, he will help the Yankees. If Vaughn is healthy he's an overweight, underproducing 1B that forces Mike Piazza to catch everyday and forces Jason Phillips out of the lineup or he (Mo) becomes a horribly overpaid pitch hitter for a team that will struggle to be better than the Expos. Brown, if he's healthy, becomes one of the top three starters for a team that will at the very least compete for the divison title and wild-card.
If you accept that premise re. Vlad, then this was a solid signing for '04 for the Yankees. Sheffield should give the Yankees one of the biggest upgrades any team will enjoy from a FA at any position next season, perhaps the biggest.
.310 .415 .579 in 145 ABs.
Just for reference, this is what Larry "Met-Killer" Jones has done against the Mets the last three years:
309 .403 .524 in 191 ABs.
With 379 HR and 2009 hits currently, it will take at least 4 years of hitting homeruns and probably 6 at the least for the hits to get to 3000.
Somthing to consider is that he's building off one of his best years in health (155 games, career 2nd best), slugging (.604, 3rd best), and BA (.330, tied for career best). His Yankee contract is for ages 35-37.
What would happen if Sheffield has retires at the end of his Yankee contract with something like 475 HR? He reminds me an awful lot of Dick Allen, with a little less impressive peak, but no sharp dropoff yet. Yet another player who might have his personality keep him out, especially without the benefit of an MVP award or two homerun crowns.
2001-2003
Garcia et al to Sheffield,
So far, IMO, the Orioles upgrade at SS, and the Mets at CF, are the best contenders to top the Yankees in RF. I'd stick with Sheffield as it stands now as the biggest upgrade.
No.
Sorry, cut off.
I believe this was Manny, not ARod.
There is no such fact. The NY Post completly made that up. They do it all the time.
yeah, kevin also said the Knicks will NOT make the playoffs in the east. Sure they will, they're seventh in the East right now and gaining fast on "Vinsanity" and the Raptors. The Knicks are much better and much more athletic than when Isiah took over. He's doing a great job.
And he's still much better than Stockton.
sounds like you're the one drinking the Kool Aid. You hold up a page 6 item as gospel, you're not going to convince too many people of your point of view.
Yes, and they're paying $60 mil+ to the Yankees to get this flexibility. What a bargain!
Brilliant!
318/361/558
Two things I want to point out: 1. As per the numbers of Michael Kay at Yes Network and Tom Singer at MLB, the Yankees will only be adding $750,000 this year by adding A-ROD.
http://www.yesnetwork.com/announcers/index.cfm?cont_id=229939&page_type=wide
http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/news/mlb_perspectives.jsp?ymd=20040215&content_id=637376&vkey=perspectives&fext;=.jsp
That is astonishing, and though the Yankees will not have that relief in 2005 (when they will surely get a 3B if they can get Jeter to move to 2B or a 2B if it's Jeter/A-ROD or A-ROD/Jeter at SS/3rd), in 2006 they will have Kevin Brown, Bernie Williams, Hideki Matsui, Steve Karsay, Tom Gordon, Paul Quantrill and Kenny Lofton off the books, so they will have a lot of flexibility even with A-ROD on the books.
2. I have seen nobody write this in my internet searches, but at least to me, this deal indicates that Steimbrenner feels death tugging at him.
Let me explain.
Clearly, Steimbrenner is not interested in making more $$$, could not care less about all the luxury tax he has to pay, etc.
I suspect that the man wants to win the WS once again, maybe twice, before he dies, and he cares not a scintilla where the Yankees will be in 2010...
I thought someone (MGL?) recently did a study that showed that the difference between the weakest and strongest opposition was pretty minimal.
And if Soriano hits .318 with that BB/K ratio, I'll eat Darren's hat.
Glad to see my hat making an appearance. Luckily it's still around because the Yanks won 100 games last year. Whooppee.
Why the heck not? He's hit .300 and .290 the last two years with similar rates playing half his games in Yankee stadium. His home/road splits are dramatic, and now his home is a great hitters park. As long as what Darren says in 58 is true, I see no reason why he should not get a big jump in his raw BA.
Because that would involve him having an Batting Average on Balls in Park of .352. When he hit .300, his BABIP was .340, last year it was .311. BABIP is a skill for hitters, but is very random, and I'm fairly sure that 2002 was about as good as it's gonna get for Soriano.
Darren-
I made that hat comment exclusively for your benefit, I'm glad you liked it.
It's not relative to ARod, it's relative to the Yankees payroll.
If Boone didn't get hurt AND Henson didn't quit AND Soriano was not traded, the Yankees tax payroll would be about $190M.
Now, if the Yankees cut Boone (doubtful i admit) and with Henson quitting and with Soriano gone the Yankees tax payroll will be about $193M.
When you consider Kay was talking about actual payroll and not tax payroll, and that Arod will make $14M in 2004 (with a $16M tax number), the numbers sort of work out.
you'd have to include the costs of Lamb, Houston, Duenas and all the other 2B/3B the Yanks signed beacuse Boone went down
Lamb makes $450K, so its not much different than adding any minimum salaried guy to be on the bench or in AAA, Houston signed a minor league deal which only pays him major league money if he makes the team, Dueanas signed a minor league deal with a $60K signing bones. Only Houston, if he makes the team, really adds anything.
Actual 2004 salary:
ARod - $14M
Soriano (5.4) + Henson (2.2) + Boone (5.75) = $13.35M
Kay (and others who have used this same arguement) are ignoring that the Yankees, even if they cut Boone, would owe him about $980K
Great analogy, but it's even worse than that. In this case, Cashman is the roommate that Theo hates, and who comes back to the room and steals the girl away from Theo, then proceeds to "get some" in the top bunk while Theo plays with his "$100 Million development machine".
They save a bunch early, about $20-24 M over 3 years. But, as pointed out, much of that is this year. It's too late to spend that money this year (unless they foolishly go after Maddux). Hicks has been looking to signicantly reduce payroll so I'd be stunned if much of that $9 M is put into next year's payroll.
Then what? Well, over the next two years, the Rangers could sign a Kelvim Escobar type pitcher. Whoopee! Soriano and a better than average starter could possibly be worth more than AROD, but it's not gonna make a big difference.
After those 3 years are up, they're in a bind. If they resign Soriano, he'll probably go for about $14 per, in which case they're only saving $2-3 M per year, which won't make a dent. Basically, if they sign Soriano, they save something like $35 M over 7 years, nice, but not gonna turn a franchise around.
But maybe they don't sign Soriano, which might well be a good thing because all their good young players will be arb-eligible by then. Most of that $16-17 M they'll be saving in those years will go to Blalock, Teixeira et al. That's not a bad thing either, but it's still hard to see how this adds up to success for the Rangers. This is when the Rangers need their payroll flexibility because this is when the kids will be ready to make a run.
Basically, this really doesn't do much for the Rangers payroll flexibility in terms of freeing up enough payroll to turn the team around. It does substantially reduce their risk however.
Their real flexibility comes as Park, Greer, etc. come off the books over the next 1-3 years, but this is the flexibility they would have had anyway.
But sure, if AROD is no longer worth $17 M per year from 2007-2010, then this is an OK deal for the Rangers. But players this good usually age quite well so he's likely to be worth at least $14-15 then.
By the way, noting that AROD's value is lower as a 3B is not a point in this trade's favor. AROD would have continued to play SS for the Rangers. So the Soriano-AROD comparison has to keep AROD at SS.
AROD's got some really interesting sim scores. For his "through age 27 comparisons", no one scores higher than 781. From age 24-26, his most similar was Mickey Mantle.
Wait a minute, I can make it even better. Theo is a dude and the Rangers are a prostitute. Theo offers her $20 bucks and she says she'll only take a $100. Theo doesn't have it, so he leaves and in walks Cashman. The whore Rangers realize that they're in danger of going home empty handed tonight so they screw Cashman for 50 cents. Theo pops in at the last moment and says, "okay, I'll go as high as $25." The prositute, being stupid and petty, says no thanks and goes back to Cashman.
Rangers, that's an OK, but probably not great contract. Depending on how much the option is.
But more importantly, it has nothing to do with this financial flexibility you so fondly speak of. You won't be paying Blalock real money until 2006 and even then it will be about $3 M that first year. You already had way more than that coming off the books after the 2005 season.
And of course by tying him up for 5 years, you just gave yourself less financial flexibility from 2006-2008. Hopefully you gambled right.
Your comment was a slam on Theo, mine was a slam on the Rangers. What's the difference? Was it becasue yours came first?
No, they'll be 10-6, looking up at MVP Chad Pennington's Jets (AFC East champs at 13-3), who will be looking for back-to-back Super Bowl titles, having defeated the Eagles 27-17 in the 2005 Super Bowl.
--Jeter's supposed to be a leader. Moving over would have been the leaderly thing to do.
--Jeter's a great athlete who would probably adjust as well as anyone to a knew position.
--He's so bad defensively that he couldn't be worse at 3b. He'd at least have fewer chances over there.
What exactly does that mean? Use your imagination.
Now as for dropping Carlisle for Brown...
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