Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Transaction Oracle > Discussion
Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Monday, February 16, 2004

New York Yankees

Acquired SS Alex Rodriguez from the New York Yankees for 2B Alfonso Soriano and a player to be named.

Hell with it - if I wait for an announcement, everyone will be tired of it by then.

Highway robbery by the Yankees even considering that Team Captain’s apparent unwillingness to do what’s best for the team is preventing the Yanks from getting the full benefits of the trade.

The current plan seems to be to move A-Rod to 3B but that can always change.  And should, too, since the Yankees acquired a bunch of 3B options that won’t be able to be moved to 2B.  Houston or Lamb can fill a 3B hole without being too wretched, but neither will do the same at 2B.  The best thing for the Yanks to do now is to leave A-Rod at short, tell Derek Jeter that being a leader isn’t just a pretty label, and move him to 2nd and eventually center.

What the Rangers get out of this?  A much bleaker future than before the A-Rod trade.  They pay the Yankees roughly a *third* of what A-Rod’s owed for the privilege of making the team significantly worse.  Soriano’s a much better player than a lot of people, including myself, thought he would be, but he’s not A-Rod. 

If the Rangers are able to keep Soriano long-term, they’ll have to give him a deal not too far from the 12-18 a year the Yanks are paying A-Rod, which’ll eat into any savings and payroll flexibility.

If the Rangers are not able to keep Soriano long-term, then they’ve lost 10 wins a year.  They had enough problems *with* the wins A-Rod brought and would be that much further from making a dent in the West.

Mike Young returns to short and should handle it pretty nicely.

Really, there’s not much of a way the Rangers get any advantage in this.  This wasn’t a world-class offense - it was a mediocre offense in 2003 *with* the 2nd-best SS in history.

2004 ZiPS Projections
———————————————————————————————————
Player     AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB   BA   OBP   SLG
———————————————————————————————————
Soriano     701 125 223 45 3 39 135 35 140 37 .318 .361 .558
Rodriguez   628 118 184 29 3 50 140 91 124 14 .293 .394 .588

Dan Szymborski Posted: February 16, 2004 at 12:55 AM | 38 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Related News:

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

Page 5 of 6 pages  < 1 2 3 4 5 6 > 
   401. Mike Posted: December 03, 2003 at 02:15 AM (#568977)
With regard to cameron....everyone but the Yankees seem to realize they are bad defensively...so I don't think he ever was an option for them. Neither apparently is signing Tejada or Matsui as a SS...all rumors about Matsui seem to point to him being the one switching to 2B...meaning Soriano gets bumped out to LF (thats the latest I've heard...though he'd almost definitely have better range than Hideki in center, and prolly a better arm than bernie has too, williams to DH and Nick Johnson being sent off along with the only things that still resemble prospects in the system (Juan Rivera and DePaula) for another young, brilliant starting pitcher (or just an over-the-hill, once pretty good one) for Mel Stottlmyre to turn into the next Jeff Weaver. Everyone around baseball seem to realize the Yankees' problems, and have come up with answers for them, except the Yankees themselves.
   402. Mike Posted: December 03, 2003 at 02:15 AM (#568978)
With regard to cameron....everyone but the Yankees seem to realize they are bad defensively...so I don't think he ever was an option for them. Neither apparently is signing Tejada or Matsui as a SS...all rumors about Matsui seem to point to him being the one switching to 2B...meaning Soriano gets bumped out to LF (thats the latest I've heard...though he'd almost definitely have better range than Hideki in center, and prolly a better arm than bernie has too, williams to DH and Nick Johnson being sent off along with the only things that still resemble prospects in the system (Juan Rivera and DePaula) for another young, brilliant starting pitcher (or just an over-the-hill, once pretty good one) for Mel Stottlmyre to turn into the next Jeff Weaver. Everyone around baseball seem to realize the Yankees' problems, and have come up with answers for them, except the Yankees themselves.
   403. The Original SJ Posted: December 03, 2003 at 03:03 AM (#568980)
It's hard enough finding 3B who hit like Boone, SS who hit like him are in even shorter supply -- though they are more available at the moment I suppose if you're willing to pay the price.

I should have clarified. I meant, hit like Boone did with the Yankees...

BA: .236
   404. Replacement-Level Primate Posted: December 03, 2003 at 01:52 PM (#568982)
"How's Minnesota feeling about Koskie and his contract these days?"

Not as good as Minnesota would be feeling about, say, Nick Johnson or Alfonso Soriano and their respective contracts. Then again, an article actually ran in the Star Tribune last summer talking about how Koskie isn't metrosexual enough for the Twin Cities. He would be lost in New York.
   405. Klobedanz Posted: December 03, 2003 at 03:02 PM (#568983)
I may not like it and you may not like it, but Derek Jeter is going to play SS for the NY Yanks for the next 5 years. The statheads know he is overrated defensively, but the organization does not share that view. So all this talk about moving Jeter is nice in the abstract but in reality it will not happen until he gets to his late 30's (see Ripken, Cal).
   406. Cris E Posted: December 03, 2003 at 04:45 PM (#568984)
It's a good signing because he plays 3b well enough to pull a Scott Brosius until they figure out what they want to do long term.

And he provides the flexibility to consider moving Soriano to OF or another team and get a new 3B.

And he provides a fairly legitimate backup to Jeter at SS (God forbid!)

And he took Wakefield deep and it really twists the Boston fans off.

It's all good for George and it only cost $5.7m.
   407. APNY Posted: December 04, 2003 at 04:02 AM (#569146)
At least their overpaying for good players, Bean and Proctor must be thrilled.

And no way Nelson is back.
   408. Jason Posted: December 04, 2003 at 01:54 PM (#569148)
How many teams are salivating at the check George is going to cut this winter for his payroll? How long will George continue to up the payroll and not win the WS before he stops?
   409. Mike Posted: December 04, 2003 at 06:04 PM (#568990)
Why does nobody in the Yankees front office seem to realize just how good Nick Johnson is and how good he can be? All this should be even more obvious considering Giambi's health issues.
   410. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 04, 2003 at 09:18 PM (#569209)
It's an OK deal for the Yankees, but I think it's a very good one for the Expos. Johnson's a huge 1B upgrade on Wil Cordero, and Rivera gives them some flexibility in the OF. They can use him in left and kick Wilkerson to center if (by some miracle) they can keep Vlad, or use him in right if Vlad goes elsewhere.

Myrow might have made more sense than Choate, though, given their need at 3B.
   411. Mike Posted: December 04, 2003 at 09:30 PM (#569213)
Give the Expos credit, they sold high on Vazquez. He wasn't going to get much more valuable.
   412. VegasRobb Posted: December 04, 2003 at 09:35 PM (#569215)
Nice trade for the Expos. I was hoping they wouldn't have to give up Johnson.

However, if they were going to move him, they picked up something useful.
   413. Lester Posted: December 04, 2003 at 09:52 PM (#569217)
The ZIPS projections for Rivera sure look high. Has his minor league performance really been that good?
   414. APNY Posted: December 04, 2003 at 10:09 PM (#569218)
In a very limited sample (212 PA) Rivera has both looked (based on my personal observation) and performed aweful (670 OPS) against RHP.

He can be a lefy masher, but i'm not convinced he can be a good everyday player.

I'll miss Nick Johnson, and I hope he has a great career, but I think this is a good deal for both teams.
   415. APNY Posted: December 04, 2003 at 10:27 PM (#569220)
That ZiPS projection looks high even to me. .310/.358/.488? Wow!

I believe we had the same discussion last year when Rivera's ZIPS came out.

This seems strange to me:

Johnson, at age 25, went 284/422/472 in the majors, but projects to 283/413/482 next year.

Rivera, at age 25, went 325/374/461 in AAA and 266/304/468 in the majors but projects to 310/358/488 next year.

It seems like something is skewing this. Perhaps Johnson's injury problems in 01 and 02 (assuming ZIPS uses 3 years of data), perhaps that Rivera was repeating a level that he already mashed.
   416. Darren Posted: December 04, 2003 at 11:03 PM (#569223)
Dan, I don't think anyone's questioning the Johnson projection as much as the Rivera projection. It seems to come out of left field. I've noticed that ZiPs is very friendly to some unproven minor league type players. Is that just my imagination?

Bay: 0.283 0.389 0.476
   417. bob mong Posted: December 04, 2003 at 11:19 PM (#569224)
That ZiPS projection looks high even to me. .310/.358/.488? Wow!

I dunno...
   418. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 05, 2003 at 12:03 AM (#569226)
I don't see that the Bay projection is so unreasonable, in context of his career. He was .298/.394/.516 at AA in '02, .303/.410/.541 at AAA in '03, and .287/.421/.529 in 107 PA in the majors.
   419. APNY Posted: December 05, 2003 at 01:10 AM (#569228)
Mike Moffatt,

I wrote this in the Vasquez thread:

Right, the best way to look at the Yankees payroll is to use the "tax" salaries. I'm sure if the Yankees have any concern for payroll, it would be the tax number and not the real number.

Tax Salaries: Posada 10.2, Flaherty 0.77, Giambi 17.15, Jeter 18.9, Boone 5.7, Bernie 12.5, Matsui 7, Wilson 0.70, Sheffield 13, Soriano 5, Mussina 14.75, Contreras 8, Lieber 1.75, Weaver 5.5, Rivera 10, Karsay 5.56, Hammond 2.4, Gordon 3.75, Quantril 3.3, Vazquez 10, Heredia 1.8, Henson 2.7.

That's $160.43M for 22 players, 21 of whom should be on the ML roster. Add 14 minimum players to fill out the 40 man (14*300K=4.2) and the Yankees tax payroll is $164.63 with four spots open.

Assume Pettitte stays and it goes to say $176 mil.

Three more spots: CF? 1B (how bout little G)? 5th OF?

Overall, they wont get to $200M, but unless they move Weaver and Hammond, $190M seems likely.
   420. APNY Posted: December 05, 2003 at 01:48 AM (#569231)
Mike,

I know about the $7.6mil, thats why I said the $176M would likely end up at about $190M, i dont expect them to spend $14M on those last 3 players, though you never know.

FOr the salary info, go to the hompage link.
   421. Michael Posted: December 05, 2003 at 02:46 AM (#569234)
APNY,

How sure are you that all the rest of the 40 man roster make the ML minimum salary? I dont think that is the case as I recall AAA players being considered highly paid in the high 150s. I think the minor leagues have independent salaries unless they are like Henson and have a ML deal.

Michael
   422. John Posted: December 05, 2003 at 03:40 AM (#569235)
I guess those three wins *may* be a difference against the Red Sox, but it assumes neither Johnson nor Rivera improve which is unlikely.

Three win shares = one win, right? But...WS are to some extent a function of team success. If Javy Vasquez had pitched as he did in Montre-Juan, but for the New York Yankees, he'd beat 21 easily.
   423. Brian K. Posted: December 05, 2003 at 04:48 AM (#569241)
Good job expos!!! While im sad to see Vazquez not in red, I was impressed watching NJ and JR last year. And for a team run by baseball one has to think, if they keep Guerrero, this lineup is that much better. The NL EAST could be a real fun division.
   424. Lester Posted: December 05, 2003 at 07:47 AM (#569244)
Johnson is already a very good player and if he stays healthy and his power really develops he could be a perennial All-Star. I'm very sad to see him go - he was one of my favorite Yankees. But if he's going to be playing elsewhere, I'm damn glad we got Vazquez in return. At the beginning of the off-season, Vazquez was the one player out there (even more than Schilling or Beltran) that I really hoped the Yankees would get. His K rate is fantastic, which makes him exactly the type of pitcher the Yankees should be going after. Most importantly, he's only 27. The Yanks have thrown a lot of money at older FAs, but with Vazquez they have a chance to get a guy who could be a solid contributor for years to come.
   425. flournoy Posted: December 05, 2003 at 09:56 PM (#569253)
Yankees are a lock to win the AL next year.

I'd take a look at my calendar if I were you, chief.
   426. Sam M. Posted: December 11, 2003 at 11:38 PM (#569830)
# 4 -- All good points. OTOH, I'd guess Weaver is going to need a year to detox from his disaster in New York (much as Ed Whitson did), and will not be good until 2005. That projection will be more accurate for year after next than it is for next year.
   427. Lester Posted: December 12, 2003 at 12:11 AM (#569835)
ZIPS has Brown and Weaver posting nearly identical K/9 rates next year. I know Weaver gets to face pitchers in the 9 slot now while Brown has to face DHs, but this seems really implausible.
   428. Tony B Posted: December 12, 2003 at 12:28 AM (#569837)
Ed Whitson had a career ERA+ of 97. He was an average pitcher who stunk it up in New York.

Year TM ERA+
   429. Pennants fly forever Posted: December 12, 2003 at 12:29 AM (#569838)
Weaver was NOT Joe's guy. Joe disliked his defeatist attitude, chided him for showing up fielders (jeez, why would he do that?), his defeatist attitude, and his inability to "challenge hitters", etc. Plus guy's a known pothead and stewardess abuser who likes the nightlife and didn't perform for TOrre. Pettite is definely a mental loss for Torre and a blow to Stottlemyre's ego, but Joe needs to get over it. If healthy, Kevin Brown is one level better. Bring it on!
   430. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 12, 2003 at 12:33 AM (#569840)
ZiPS predicts Weaver to beat his career average K rate by 0.7/9 switching to a league with a K rate that's 0.5/9 higher and a park that is generally one of the top K inflation parks in the majors. What's the problem?

The factors #4 outlined are huge.

ERA+, Jeff Weaver

1999 - 89
   431. Sam M. Posted: December 12, 2003 at 12:39 AM (#569842)
Whitson was an above average pitcher before arriving in N.Y. (110 ERA+), and his career tanked in New York. Then look at the progression of Whitson's ERA+ number in the years after he left New York:

65 (half season)
   432. bhoov Posted: December 12, 2003 at 12:49 AM (#569843)
The real comaprison to make here is Brown vs. Pettite.
   433. Sam M. Posted: December 12, 2003 at 01:30 AM (#569847)
If there was a NY-effect it would have been apparent in his first season there,

I think that's a huge assumption. NY (especially the Bronx) is a pressure cooker -- and pressure in a cooker builds over time. NY is also very harsh to a guy who is struggling; once Whitson got off badly in 1986, it mushroomed. Moreover, there was another big difference in 1986: Sweet Lou took over as manager, and if there's someone (particularly early in his managerial career) who was not exactly adept at relieving pressure on his players, it was Piniella.

And the trajectory of Whitson's recovery after leaving New York was pretty damned dramatic. Or do you disagree he was, plain and simple, an outstanding pitcher in 1989 and 1990?
   434. Lester Posted: December 12, 2003 at 01:32 AM (#569848)
Dan, good explanation re Weaver's K rate. Personally, I'm still not sure what to make of him . His K rate declined slightly from 1999 to 2002 (6.27, 6.12, 5.97, 5.95) and then fell abruptly last year (5.25). Perhaps last year was just a fluke and his previous numbers are more indicative of his true ability, in which case a K rate of 6.65 at Dodger Stadium is quite reasonable. As a Yankees fan who is also an LA resident and Dodgers fan, I hope that is indeed the case.

Now I'm wondering about Brown. You've got him falling from slightly under 7.9K/9 to 6.8K/9. Even with the .5 league drop and no more Dodger Stadium (how is Yankee Stadium with respect to K rates), that's a pretty big fall. Is that based on age? Because with fewer BIPs being converted to outs by the Yanks defense, it seems like Brown's K rate would receive a little bump as some innings that previously went GB out, K, GB out become GB out, K, single to left, K. In other words, doesn't a good defense in some sense suppress K rates while a bad defense inflates them? Or am I missing something?
   435. Tony B Posted: December 12, 2003 at 01:40 AM (#569849)
How many of those under 100 ERA+ seasons were injury marred? Not to mention the fact that Alexander played with so many different teams. Alexander's year and a half in the Bronx was significantly worse than any other years in his career. Same thing for Ed Whitson. What's interesting is that Alexander played for the Yankees in 1976 and was OK. The Yankees clubhouse turned into a zoo after '76.
   436. Tony B Posted: December 12, 2003 at 02:12 AM (#569851)
"Would it make sense for me to ridicule you (assuming you live in NY) saying that you can't handle the pressure of (say) accounting in NY and that if you went off and were an accountant in LA that you would do better, and that you couldn't handle accounting in NY because you were soft in the head? No, that wouldn't make sense, so why do you blame some mental infirmity for what falls within the range of random variation in a mediocre pitcher's career."

You don't seem to get it. Average pitchers come to New York and are expected to be better than they are. When that doesn't happen, they are ridiculed by the press, fans, and the owner. Not suprisingly, they hit rock bottom.

If you were an accountant in San Diego and no one gave a damn about your performance and then you took a job with a high profile firm in New York for more money than you were worth, where you were under intense scrutiny, it is not unreasonable to think that your work would be effected by this.
   437. Dr. Vaux Posted: December 12, 2003 at 04:15 AM (#569857)
Well, there goes Weaver's park advantage... in other news, ESPNews reports that the Blue Jays have signed Miguel Batista. If Ted Lilly's progress continues, the AL East/Wildcard has potentially become a three team race.
   438. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 12, 2003 at 04:24 AM (#569858)
The Dodgers have been superb at converting hit balls into outs for years now and there's no roster shakeup that would suggest that won't repeat. That's a really, really good reason. The team as a whole let *under* 7 non-HR hits/9 innings in 2003.
   439. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 12, 2003 at 05:59 AM (#569862)
I'm not super-keen on Weaver as a pickup, but I'd like to hear about the PsTBNL before I come down too hard on the Dodgers. It's not really fair to judge a trade before all the players are traded, right?
   440. Tony B Posted: December 12, 2003 at 06:35 AM (#569863)
Speaking as a Dodger fan, I'm glad to see Kevin Brown go. The FOX-Malone era is officially over. This move gives Evans some cash to play with. I just hope he spends it wisely.
   441. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 12, 2003 at 01:49 PM (#569866)
Weaver has 5 more HRs given up, 6 more walks, and 5 more non-HR hits, but Brown's non HR hits will contain a lot more doubles than Weaver. Defense doesn't just affect singles.
   442. JRVJ (formerly Delta Socrates) Posted: December 12, 2003 at 02:00 PM (#569867)
I think this trade was a salary dump by LA (who just rid themselves of a net $18.5 MM over 2004-2005, when you add the $15.5 MM that Weaver makes as per bluemanc and the $3MM that the Yankees sent), but not too bad a trade for the Yankees from a $$ point when you recall that the Yanks lost Pettitte (the Yankees are going to pay a net $18 MM extra for K. Brown for 2004-2005, after you discount the Weaver sunk cost - which is much less than they were to pay Pettite).

I strongly suspect that the reason why the Yankees were not more aggressive with Pettitte is because they had this deal with LA wrapped up and ready to go if Pettitte did not accept their final offer (and from a Yankee standpoint, there's a lot of value in getting Weaver out of NY).
   443. There are no words... (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: December 12, 2003 at 02:40 PM (#569868)
I guess Yankee fans can now shut the H. up about Moo Vaughn, now, right? They just picked up the pitching equivalent...
   444. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 12, 2003 at 04:59 PM (#569870)
BA's reporting the prospects as Yhency Brazoban and Brandon Weeden.

If that report's accurate, I'm pretty unimpressed with the deal for the Dodgers.
   445. Old Matt Posted: December 12, 2003 at 05:53 PM (#569873)
I think this trade was a salary dump by LASalary dump, but you gotta think a bit of an attitude dump, too. Brown was never very well liked in LA, never helped the young pitchers along like he could have, and so on. I agree with Tony above, I'm glad to see him go. I sort of think of Brown as LA's version of Barry Bonds -- loner, overall jerk, not good for the team concept (Bonds fans, don't blast me here, I'm just generalizing) -- except Brown isn't worth it like Bonds is.
   446. Walt Davis Posted: December 12, 2003 at 07:00 PM (#569874)
I like this trade from the Dodgers' perspective. Brown is a great pitcher, but also a fragile one at this stage and likely to decline substantially over the next two years even if he stays healthy. I can't see any particular reason to think he'll be better at 39 and 40 than Clemens was, and he gave the Yanks 400 innings with an ERA+ around 106. The Dodgers are getting a pitcher who should be decent and saving $18 M.

And it's fine from the Yankees' perspective. Even if he'd been put in the rotation, Weaver would have been on a very short leash. And from their perspective -- a pennant-winner with $15 M sunk in Weaver already -- gambling on Brown is a reasonable bet.

Now here's a question. Where does Brown rank in the list of all-time greatest pitchers after age 30? Through 29, his best full season ERA+ was 119. Since then:

30 136
   447. scott Posted: December 12, 2003 at 07:39 PM (#569875)
this helps the yankees. weaver was never going to pitch in NYC again, and Brown is one of the top 5 starters in the game when healthy. he's the ace of the staff.

this could backfire if Brown gets injured, as he's basically costing the yankees 18m this year. but not a bad move at all if he's healthy.

and the dodgers save cash, which is what any team not named the redsox and yankees are trying to do in the current market.
   448. There are no words... (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: December 12, 2003 at 08:34 PM (#569876)
>>this could backfire if Brown gets injured, as he's basically costing the yankees 18m this year. but not a bad move at all if he's healthy.<<

See? Substitute the name "Vaughn" for "Brown" and you have the exact quote from Met-watchers during the 2001 off-season...
   449. Mike Posted: December 13, 2003 at 12:14 AM (#569877)
Re: Met Fan Charlie

The main difference with the Vaughn theory being that if Brown is healthy this year, he will help the Yankees. If Vaughn is healthy he's an overweight, underproducing 1B that forces Mike Piazza to catch everyday and forces Jason Phillips out of the lineup or he (Mo) becomes a horribly overpaid pitch hitter for a team that will struggle to be better than the Expos. Brown, if he's healthy, becomes one of the top three starters for a team that will at the very least compete for the divison title and wild-card.
   450. Sam M. Posted: December 13, 2003 at 03:53 PM (#569880)
According to the NY Post, one of the PTBNL in the Brown deal is not on the Yankees' 40 man roster, and is eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft, explaining why they haven't released the names of those two. Any Yankee fans care to speculate who that might be???
   451. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: December 18, 2003 at 03:56 AM (#570413)
The delay in signing Sheff, what did that net the Yanks anyway?
   452. Sam M. Posted: December 18, 2003 at 06:09 AM (#570418)
Exhibit A in the case that Vlad wasn't ever going to come to New York is that the Yankees went after Sheffield without even a sniff in Guerrero's direction. They knew, and didn't waste their time & energy, nor risk losing Sheffield to someone else while they got jerked around by Vlad.

If you accept that premise re. Vlad, then this was a solid signing for '04 for the Yankees. Sheffield should give the Yankees one of the biggest upgrades any team will enjoy from a FA at any position next season, perhaps the biggest.
   453. I Love LA (OFF) Posted: December 18, 2003 at 07:57 AM (#570420)
Boy, am i glad to see him go. Sheffield feasted on Met pitching (and while he'll continue doing it with pinstripes, at least its only for 6 games a year):

.310 .415 .579 in 145 ABs.

Just for reference, this is what Larry "Met-Killer" Jones has done against the Mets the last three years:

309 .403 .524 in 191 ABs.
   454. CrosbyBird Posted: December 18, 2003 at 08:06 AM (#570421)
Gary Sheffield is going to have a lot of trouble getting to 3000 hits unless he ages very very well.

With 379 HR and 2009 hits currently, it will take at least 4 years of hitting homeruns and probably 6 at the least for the hits to get to 3000.

Somthing to consider is that he's building off one of his best years in health (155 games, career 2nd best), slugging (.604, 3rd best), and BA (.330, tied for career best). His Yankee contract is for ages 35-37.

What would happen if Sheffield has retires at the end of his Yankee contract with something like 475 HR? He reminds me an awful lot of Dick Allen, with a little less impressive peak, but no sharp dropoff yet. Yet another player who might have his personality keep him out, especially without the benefit of an MVP award or two homerun crowns.
   455. CrosbyBird Posted: December 18, 2003 at 08:15 AM (#570423)
Here's your Met-killer, although now that Benitez is gone, I'm less afraid.

2001-2003
   456. salvomania Posted: December 18, 2003 at 07:47 PM (#570427)
Sheffield's high walk rate and relatively large number of missed games relative to the other 3000-hit men will make it tough for him to get into that club.. He already has more walks than 8 of the 20 members, and in 3 more years the only ones with more walks will be Rickey, Yaz, Musial, Rose, Mays, and maybe Hank Aaron---all of whom played until they were at least 42.
   457. Eric Posted: December 20, 2003 at 02:47 AM (#570431)
What's a bigger upgrade?

Garcia et al to Sheffield,
   458. Sam M. Posted: December 20, 2003 at 03:01 AM (#570432)
Burkett to Schilling is pretty big. But it wasn't a FA signing; it was a trade.

So far, IMO, the Orioles upgrade at SS, and the Mets at CF, are the best contenders to top the Yankees in RF. I'd stick with Sheffield as it stands now as the biggest upgrade.
   459. Darren Posted: January 06, 2004 at 09:48 PM (#571011)
Dan, that deal is an excellent one for the Yanks. Vazquez is worth $13-$15 mil. easily, when compared to what others got.
   460. Combat Wombat Posted: January 07, 2004 at 02:22 AM (#571012)
What happens if you feed Not Your Typical Cowboy Up Red Sox Fan?
   461. Josh Posted: January 29, 2004 at 04:34 PM (#572158)
Didn't Texas put ARod on irrevocable waivers, only to see him unclaimed?

No.
   462. Josh Posted: January 29, 2004 at 04:39 PM (#572159)
No.

Sorry, cut off.

I believe this was Manny, not ARod.
   463. Larry Bowa Posted: January 29, 2004 at 07:56 PM (#572160)
Houston can keep his mouth shut about as well as I can. But then again, I'm no Joe Torre.
   464. Shaddax Posted: February 16, 2004 at 01:23 AM (#572601)
The Daily News (I forget where) suggested Soriano might be given a look in center next year. I am unclear as to why.
   465. APNY Posted: February 16, 2004 at 01:23 AM (#572602)
The fact that this went from including Contreras and Navarro to just Soriano with ARod

There is no such fact. The NY Post completly made that up. They do it all the time.
   466. Buddha Posted: February 16, 2004 at 01:53 AM (#572606)
"The Knicks just traded Van Horn, Doleac and a 2005 2nd rounder for Tim Thomas and Nazr Mohammad. I can't wait for Kevin to rip Isiah a new one!"

yeah, kevin also said the Knicks will NOT make the playoffs in the east. Sure they will, they're seventh in the East right now and gaining fast on "Vinsanity" and the Raptors. The Knicks are much better and much more athletic than when Isiah took over. He's doing a great job.

And he's still much better than Stockton.
   467. OCF Posted: February 16, 2004 at 02:51 AM (#572610)
Dan - which ballpark does the above ZiPS for Rodriguez assume? Are you sure it's 50 HR in Yankee Stadium?
   468. Jason Posted: February 16, 2004 at 05:18 AM (#572623)
When exactly does Soriano get the big bucks?
   469. Jason Posted: February 16, 2004 at 05:18 AM (#572624)
When exactly does Soriano get the big bucks?
   470. mommy Posted: February 16, 2004 at 05:25 AM (#572625)
on Zips: soriano's not gonna get 700 AB w/ Texas, who i assume won't bat him leadoff. not a big deal though, obviously.
   471. Darren Posted: February 16, 2004 at 06:41 AM (#572634)
Joey,

sounds like you're the one drinking the Kool Aid. You hold up a page 6 item as gospel, you're not going to convince too many people of your point of view.
   472. Darren Posted: February 16, 2004 at 06:47 AM (#572635)
After '04, Texas has the flexibility you WANT: If A-Sor remains a stud, you can sign him for studly wages. If not, adios, and the millions go elsewhere.

Yes, and they're paying $60 mil+ to the Yankees to get this flexibility. What a bargain!
   473. Steve Posted: February 16, 2004 at 07:11 AM (#572636)
$72 million for 1 year of Soriano?!?!?!

Brilliant!
   474. b Posted: February 16, 2004 at 08:43 AM (#572639)
Post speculating that the PTBNL is likely Henn. Course, it's the Post.
   475. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: February 16, 2004 at 01:09 PM (#572642)
<i>As for the Yankees, fine they can afford it, but let's say those ZIPS work out...

318/361/558
   476. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: February 16, 2004 at 01:16 PM (#572643)
And if Soriano hits .318 with that BB/K ratio, I'll eat Darren's hat.
   477. Mike Posted: February 16, 2004 at 02:18 PM (#572644)
There's also the added bonus, that it seems as if someone in the organization may have finally realized jeter isn't a very good shortstop...whether or not it means he'll actually move anytime soon is another matter, but it has at least opened up the possibility.
   478. JRVJ (formerly Delta Socrates) Posted: February 16, 2004 at 02:58 PM (#572645)
Having been away from my computer for the weekend, I am stunned by this turn of events.

Two things I want to point out: 1. As per the numbers of Michael Kay at Yes Network and Tom Singer at MLB, the Yankees will only be adding $750,000 this year by adding A-ROD.

http://www.yesnetwork.com/announcers/index.cfm?cont_id=229939&page_type=wide

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/news/mlb_perspectives.jsp?ymd=20040215&content_id=637376&vkey=perspectives&fext;=.jsp

That is astonishing, and though the Yankees will not have that relief in 2005 (when they will surely get a 3B if they can get Jeter to move to 2B or a 2B if it's Jeter/A-ROD or A-ROD/Jeter at SS/3rd), in 2006 they will have Kevin Brown, Bernie Williams, Hideki Matsui, Steve Karsay, Tom Gordon, Paul Quantrill and Kenny Lofton off the books, so they will have a lot of flexibility even with A-ROD on the books.

2. I have seen nobody write this in my internet searches, but at least to me, this deal indicates that Steimbrenner feels death tugging at him.

Let me explain.

Clearly, Steimbrenner is not interested in making more $$$, could not care less about all the luxury tax he has to pay, etc.

I suspect that the man wants to win the WS once again, maybe twice, before he dies, and he cares not a scintilla where the Yankees will be in 2010...
   479. Mike Posted: February 16, 2004 at 03:11 PM (#572646)
Just noticed something while reading that second article that hasn't been mentioned...with Tejada in Baltimore, four of the best shortstops in baseball will all be in the same division, when is the last time something like that happened? throw in the fact that the mets will also be throwing in reyes and matsui and the concentration of shortstop talent is ridiculous. And to add just a little more irony, the man who brings a-rod to NY, soriano, was probably the last great shortstop prospect before reyes.
   480. Andrew Edwards Posted: February 16, 2004 at 03:30 PM (#572647)
The concentration of talent overall in the AL East is stunning. There are, what, 15 MVP-quality hitters? How many Hall Of Famers? And nearly everyone in the AL with a chance to win a Cy Young is either in the AL East or Oakland.
   481. Darren Posted: February 16, 2004 at 06:44 PM (#572655)
Mike,

I thought someone (MGL?) recently did a study that showed that the difference between the weakest and strongest opposition was pretty minimal.

And if Soriano hits .318 with that BB/K ratio, I'll eat Darren's hat.

Glad to see my hat making an appearance. Luckily it's still around because the Yanks won 100 games last year. Whooppee.
   482. APNY Posted: February 16, 2004 at 07:04 PM (#572656)
And if Soriano hits .318 with that BB/K ratio, I'll eat Darren's hat.

Why the heck not? He's hit .300 and .290 the last two years with similar rates playing half his games in Yankee stadium. His home/road splits are dramatic, and now his home is a great hitters park. As long as what Darren says in 58 is true, I see no reason why he should not get a big jump in his raw BA.
   483. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: February 16, 2004 at 07:16 PM (#572658)
APNY-

Because that would involve him having an Batting Average on Balls in Park of .352. When he hit .300, his BABIP was .340, last year it was .311. BABIP is a skill for hitters, but is very random, and I'm fairly sure that 2002 was about as good as it's gonna get for Soriano.

Darren-

I made that hat comment exclusively for your benefit, I'm glad you liked it.
   484. APNY Posted: February 16, 2004 at 07:34 PM (#572660)
How Drew Henson's salary coming off the books is relevant to AROD is beyond me

It's not relative to ARod, it's relative to the Yankees payroll.

If Boone didn't get hurt AND Henson didn't quit AND Soriano was not traded, the Yankees tax payroll would be about $190M.

Now, if the Yankees cut Boone (doubtful i admit) and with Henson quitting and with Soriano gone the Yankees tax payroll will be about $193M.

When you consider Kay was talking about actual payroll and not tax payroll, and that Arod will make $14M in 2004 (with a $16M tax number), the numbers sort of work out.

you'd have to include the costs of Lamb, Houston, Duenas and all the other 2B/3B the Yanks signed beacuse Boone went down

Lamb makes $450K, so its not much different than adding any minimum salaried guy to be on the bench or in AAA, Houston signed a minor league deal which only pays him major league money if he makes the team, Dueanas signed a minor league deal with a $60K signing bones. Only Houston, if he makes the team, really adds anything.
   485. APNY Posted: February 16, 2004 at 07:40 PM (#572661)
Or a simpler way of looking at it,

Actual 2004 salary:

ARod - $14M

Soriano (5.4) + Henson (2.2) + Boone (5.75) = $13.35M

Kay (and others who have used this same arguement) are ignoring that the Yankees, even if they cut Boone, would owe him about $980K
   486. APNY Posted: February 16, 2004 at 10:22 PM (#572663)
Complete financial details in homepage.
   487. Walt Davis Posted: February 17, 2004 at 01:08 AM (#572667)
Theo reminds me of that guy in college who got a girl to go back to his room but then they just sat on the bed with the door open flipping through his high school yearbook making small talk while she's dying for him to make his move. Cashman can actually get some.

Great analogy, but it's even worse than that. In this case, Cashman is the roommate that Theo hates, and who comes back to the room and steals the girl away from Theo, then proceeds to "get some" in the top bunk while Theo plays with his "$100 Million development machine".
   488. Walt Davis Posted: February 17, 2004 at 01:28 AM (#572668)
As to the deal, I'm sorry but it just doesn't give the Rangers substantial flexibility.

They save a bunch early, about $20-24 M over 3 years. But, as pointed out, much of that is this year. It's too late to spend that money this year (unless they foolishly go after Maddux). Hicks has been looking to signicantly reduce payroll so I'd be stunned if much of that $9 M is put into next year's payroll.

Then what? Well, over the next two years, the Rangers could sign a Kelvim Escobar type pitcher. Whoopee! Soriano and a better than average starter could possibly be worth more than AROD, but it's not gonna make a big difference.

After those 3 years are up, they're in a bind. If they resign Soriano, he'll probably go for about $14 per, in which case they're only saving $2-3 M per year, which won't make a dent. Basically, if they sign Soriano, they save something like $35 M over 7 years, nice, but not gonna turn a franchise around.

But maybe they don't sign Soriano, which might well be a good thing because all their good young players will be arb-eligible by then. Most of that $16-17 M they'll be saving in those years will go to Blalock, Teixeira et al. That's not a bad thing either, but it's still hard to see how this adds up to success for the Rangers. This is when the Rangers need their payroll flexibility because this is when the kids will be ready to make a run.

Basically, this really doesn't do much for the Rangers payroll flexibility in terms of freeing up enough payroll to turn the team around. It does substantially reduce their risk however.

Their real flexibility comes as Park, Greer, etc. come off the books over the next 1-3 years, but this is the flexibility they would have had anyway.

But sure, if AROD is no longer worth $17 M per year from 2007-2010, then this is an OK deal for the Rangers. But players this good usually age quite well so he's likely to be worth at least $14-15 then.

By the way, noting that AROD's value is lower as a 3B is not a point in this trade's favor. AROD would have continued to play SS for the Rangers. So the Soriano-AROD comparison has to keep AROD at SS.

AROD's got some really interesting sim scores. For his "through age 27 comparisons", no one scores higher than 781. From age 24-26, his most similar was Mickey Mantle.
   489. Darren Posted: February 17, 2004 at 02:10 AM (#572669)
Great analogy, but it's even worse than that. In this case, Cashman is the roommate that Theo hates, and who comes back to the room and steals the girl away from Theo, then proceeds to "get some" in the top bunk while Theo plays with his "$100 Million development machine".

Wait a minute, I can make it even better. Theo is a dude and the Rangers are a prostitute. Theo offers her $20 bucks and she says she'll only take a $100. Theo doesn't have it, so he leaves and in walks Cashman. The whore Rangers realize that they're in danger of going home empty handed tonight so they screw Cashman for 50 cents. Theo pops in at the last moment and says, "okay, I'll go as high as $25." The prositute, being stupid and petty, says no thanks and goes back to Cashman.
   490. Walt Davis Posted: February 17, 2004 at 05:12 PM (#572678)
We just used some of that financial flexibility to sign Hammerin' Hank Blalock for 5 years, $15.2 million, with an option for the sixth year. Not bad.

Rangers, that's an OK, but probably not great contract. Depending on how much the option is.

But more importantly, it has nothing to do with this financial flexibility you so fondly speak of. You won't be paying Blalock real money until 2006 and even then it will be about $3 M that first year. You already had way more than that coming off the books after the 2005 season.

And of course by tying him up for 5 years, you just gave yourself less financial flexibility from 2006-2008. Hopefully you gambled right.
   491. Darren Posted: February 17, 2004 at 10:20 PM (#572681)
But, man, Darren is a bitter dude.

Your comment was a slam on Theo, mine was a slam on the Rangers. What's the difference? Was it becasue yours came first?
   492. scott Posted: February 18, 2004 at 05:10 AM (#572688)
hey #88: the pats are the new dynasty. they'll be 12-4 in 2 years, going for championship #4 with Tom "Clutch God" Brady.
   493. Sam M. Posted: February 18, 2004 at 06:53 AM (#572689)
they'll be 12-4 in 2 years, going for championship #4 with Tom "Clutch God" Brady.

No, they'll be 10-6, looking up at MVP Chad Pennington's Jets (AFC East champs at 13-3), who will be looking for back-to-back Super Bowl titles, having defeated the Eagles 27-17 in the 2005 Super Bowl.
   494. Combat Wombat Posted: February 18, 2004 at 01:58 PM (#572690)
Now that we've found out Soriano is 28 and not 26, do we care to re-evaluate this deal?
   495. Darren Posted: February 18, 2004 at 06:30 PM (#572695)
rcpweiner, there's been a lot of discussion of that issue on the Clutch Hits section. There are probably 5-6 different threads on it. Some of the responses to your question from over there include:

--Jeter's supposed to be a leader. Moving over would have been the leaderly thing to do.

--Jeter's a great athlete who would probably adjust as well as anyone to a knew position.

--He's so bad defensively that he couldn't be worse at 3b. He'd at least have fewer chances over there.
   496. Buddha Posted: February 20, 2004 at 12:14 AM (#572702)
"There is no way that the Knicks catch the Raptors.
   497. Bud Selig Posted: February 20, 2004 at 03:00 AM (#572703)
Luxury tax dollars go into the Commissioner's "Discretionary Fund."

What exactly does that mean? Use your imagination.
   498. Mike Posted: February 20, 2004 at 02:22 PM (#572704)
Ideally, the Expos could move to Brooklyn, and another team (how about the Brewers! - OK it would be better if it was an AL team) could move to New Jersey
   499. The Other Kurt Posted: February 23, 2004 at 10:33 PM (#572707)
Hey Bud, I believe a portion of the Luxury Tax funds also go toward setting up baseball academies in foreign countries (to help spread the game and find new talent). I think there's also a third bucket the Luxury Tax money goes into, but I can't remember what it is right now.
   500. Darren Posted: February 25, 2004 at 05:53 PM (#572709)
Yeah, Kiki, that one move has destroyed the Pistons. They can't compete without Carmello. As I understand it, Detroit consciously decided not to worry about taking someone that would help them this year because they felt like they were pretty well set. I wouldn't judge this move for another couple of years.

Now as for dropping Carlisle for Brown...
Page 5 of 6 pages  < 1 2 3 4 5 6 > 

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
dirk
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Syndicate

Page rendered in 1.0180 seconds
47 querie(s) executed