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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Monday, February 02, 2009

Orioles - Acquired Hill

Baltimore Orioles - Acquired P Rich Hill from the Chicago Cubs for a player to be named.

Sorry about the lack of entries lately - I’ve been trying to get caught up on projections.

This is exactly the type of move the Orioles should be making.  There are very good reasons to think that Rich Hill will be a terrible major league pitcher in 2009, but the Orioles rotation is made up of Jeremy Guthrie and terrible major league pitchers, so the consequences of Hill continuing to have serious command issues are relatively minimal for a team in Baltimore’s position.  If Hill doesn’t rebound, let’s say he throws 100 innings with an ERA of 7.00.  Given that the alternative would be a player that will probably throw 100 innings with an ERA of 6.00, we’re only talking about the loss of a win or so.  The Orioles go from a 72-win team to a 71-win team.  Whoop de doo.

But what if Hill does turn it around, which is at least a possibility?  The team gets Hill for 4 years and if he does bounce all the way back, that’s a ridiculous deal considering how small the risk is.  Even if he only bounces back enough to be a 90 ERA+ pitcher, with an ERA around 5.00, he still is an upgrade over what the Orioles have.

From the Cubs point of view, they didn’t really have a choice other than to dump Hill.  Hill’s out of minor league options and the Cubs, the clear favorite in the NL Central (and I’d probably argue the NL as well), don’t have the room in the rotation or the inclination to let Hill get his brains bashed in while walking a batter a frame.

I’m not going to hazard a projection here, for obvious reasons.

Dan Szymborski Posted: February 02, 2009 at 07:42 PM | 19 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Starlin of the Slipstream (TRHN) Posted: February 02, 2009 at 08:26 PM (#3065879)
Having Hill around might be rough on the bullpen. Even discounting his last ML start, he was averaging less than 5 innings a start. And keeping a 4IP guy with a 7.00 ERA around who's out of options doesn't make a whole lot of sense unless there's a reason to think he could turn it around somehow.

Of course, some of why Hill wasn't allowed to pitch longer when he was effective was because nothing makes lou angrier than walks. (Seriously, nothing makes Lou angrier. Lieber was left in to give up 4 HRs in the second inning in a spot start against the Reds [a spot start necessitated by Hill], but Hill's four walks in the first inning, that was the deal-breaker.)

I think Lou's tough love didn't do Hill any favors.
   2. 1k5v3L Posted: February 02, 2009 at 08:46 PM (#3065900)
See, this is the problem with having an O's fan run the Transaction Oracle. Pie/Hill transactions show up while the trades are in their rumor stages, yet legitimate major league deals for other teams remain ignored... :)

So now that I'm done guilt-tripping you, Dan, can we get the TO for Jon Garland and Flash Gordon in AZ?
   3. Mike Green Posted: February 02, 2009 at 09:53 PM (#3065990)
I guess that Rich Hill is the replacement for Daniel Cabrera. Makes sense.
   4. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: February 02, 2009 at 09:56 PM (#3065996)
Tom Gordon is still pitching? Seriously?
   5. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 02, 2009 at 09:56 PM (#3065997)
Kinda sucks for us Royals fans that the Orioles days of making dumb moves appears to be over. Back to the cellar for us! That 75 win season sure was fun!
   6. 1k5v3L Posted: February 02, 2009 at 10:00 PM (#3066001)
Tom Gordon is still pitching? Seriously?
CHONE has him on his "retired pitchers" list, but obviously the Dbacks didn't get the memo
   7. alskor Posted: February 03, 2009 at 03:55 AM (#3066199)
There are very good reasons to think that Rich Hill will be a terrible major league pitcher in 2009, but the Orioles rotation is made up of Jeremy Guthrie and terrible major league pitchers, so the consequences of Hill continuing to have serious command issues are relatively minimal for a team in Baltimore's position.


Plus, Hill's command problems must seem like a papercut compared the gaping gunshot wound that was Daniel Cabrera.
   8. Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein Posted: February 03, 2009 at 05:30 PM (#3066553)
Is there any way to get a David Pauley projection? He was traded during the period between the O's projection and the Red Sox projection.
   9. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: February 03, 2009 at 05:33 PM (#3066555)
CHONE has him on his "retired pitchers" list, but obviously the Dbacks didn't get the memo

He just wants to sign a one-day contract so he can retire as a Dback, like Mike Lieberthal and Thurman Thomas.

It's unusual to do that with a team you've never played for in a city you have no connection to, true.
   10. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 03, 2009 at 06:01 PM (#3066586)
Tom Gordon is still pitching? Seriously?

I would have been less suprised if you told me he was dead.
   11. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 03, 2009 at 06:06 PM (#3066593)
Pauley 5-10, 5.76 with the Orioles. Pauley will appear on the final spreadsheet/disk, as will a number of players who haven't made any of the team lists.
   12. Mike Emeigh Posted: February 03, 2009 at 08:50 PM (#3066784)
The Orioles think they can fix Hill. I've never seen a pitcher who lost it so quickly get fixed by anyone, but I suppose there is always a first time.

-- MWE
   13. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: February 03, 2009 at 09:03 PM (#3066800)
the thing is, Hill was fixed before -- he had absolutely atrocious control in college and early in his minor league career, and kranitz (and others I'm sure) turned him around. So there's at least some precedent.
   14. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: February 08, 2009 at 03:03 AM (#3070849)
Tom Gordon is still pitching? Seriously?

He could pitch to his son in spring training.
   15. jwb Posted: February 08, 2009 at 02:31 PM (#3071026)
Hill said he was trying to pitch through back problems. If those are really him, he could come back quickly. So could his back problams.
   16. jwb Posted: February 08, 2009 at 03:14 PM (#3071035)
"really *behind* him"
   17. joseandhamilton1290 Posted: February 27, 2009 at 09:04 PM (#3088295)
Adding Hill is a big aquisition to add to the young and talented staff.
   18. DKDC Posted: March 01, 2009 at 05:08 AM (#3089262)
Aren't back problems always behind you?
   19. rlc Posted: May 23, 2009 at 09:07 PM (#3190500)
Hill after two starts:
IP   H  R ER HR BB IBB  SO ERA+
11.1 10  4  4  1  6   1  12 151 

He has digital control - when he loses it there's not even a fuzzy reminder that it was once there, and when he regains it there's no hint that he's the same guy who just walked the bases loaded...

The age difference makes it tough, but I think Hill has a shot to break into the top 3 in Career Wins After Being Run Off By Lou Piniella list:
Hampton 142*
Lowe    129*
Estes   101 

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