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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Friday, December 11, 2009

Orioles - Acquired Millwood

Baltimore Orioles - Acquired P Kevin Millwood from the Texas Rangers for P Chris Rayand a PTBNL in the Rule 5 Draft.

Unlike the discussed theoretical of the Orioles signing Delgado, bringing in Millwood does have tangible benefits to the team.  Not of the “Let’s Try To Win 78 Games By Hot-Shotting Some Veterans And Hope the 8th Time Brings the Fans Back” variety that signing a position player would bring, but simply keeping a young pitching rotation intact and a terrible bullpen off the field as much as possible.  Teams don’t need at-bat eaters, but they do need innings eaters and while Millwood is, in all honesty, a pretty unimpressive pitcher, he’s at least a generally healthy pitcher.  The Rangers are sending $3 million along with Millwood and Ray’s already been tendered and should make make at least a million, so the net cost to the Orioles is only really a 1-year, $8 million contract for a Rule 5 pick, since Ray’s not the pitcher he was 5 years ago.

2010 ZiPS Projections
————————————————————————————————-
Player     W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA ERA+
————————————————————————————————-
Millwood   10 12 30 30 177.0 200   97 24 61 109 4.93   92  
Ray       2   2 40   0 41.1 44   22   5 19 38 4.79   94
————————————————————————————————-

 

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 11, 2009 at 04:21 AM | 11 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. birdlives is one crazy ninja Posted: December 14, 2009 at 07:02 PM (#3411918)
simply keeping a young pitching rotation intact and a terrible bullpen off the field as much as possible. Teams don't need at-bat eaters, but they do need innings eaters and while Millwood is, in all honesty, a pretty unimpressive pitcher, he's at least a generally healthy pitcher.

Couldn't Livan Hernandez served the same purpose? In terms of total IP and IP per start, there isn't a huge difference between the two. He projects as a worse pitcher but hot-shotting for an artificial win total shouldn't be a great concern. I haven't heard what he's demanding but I'm assuming he'll be much cheaper.
   2. My guest will be Jermaine Allensworth Posted: December 14, 2009 at 07:08 PM (#3411930)
Couldn't Livan Hernandez served the same purpose? In terms of total IP and IP per start, there isn't a huge difference between the two. He projects as a worse pitcher but hot-shotting for an artificial win total shouldn't be a great concern. I haven't heard what he's demanding but I'm assuming he'll be much cheaper.


Why so much handwringing over the cost of a one-year contract? It's not going to prevent the O's from making other moves that would put them in contention, it's not going to affect the bottom line, and it's not like they're going to give it back to the fans.

I would think the O's need more guys helping to make it a watchable product. Millwood has a track record of being far more watchable than Livan.
   3. RJ in TO Posted: December 14, 2009 at 07:17 PM (#3411944)
Couldn't Livan Hernandez served the same purpose?


Only if you don't mind punting every fifth game. He averaged just over 5 innings a start last year, and just under 6 in 2008, while heaving up a 76 and 71 ERA+ respectively (and .

Basically, he's no longer effective, or an innings eater. At this point, you would probably be better off letting your backup catcher pitch than letting Livan take the mound on a regularly basis.
   4. birdlives is one crazy ninja Posted: December 14, 2009 at 08:28 PM (#3412088)
Why so much handwringing over the cost of a one-year contract?

I'm being nit picky. I don't have a huge problem with Millwood. I've noticed that "the innings eater, save the bullpen" lines have been mentioned frequently. This could have been done a lot cheaper.

He averaged just over 5 innings a start last year, and just under 6 in 2008,

He averaged 5.9 IP per start last year, 5.8 in 2008 and 6.2 in 2007. That's not much different from Millwood (6.4 in 2009, 5.8 in 2008, 5.5 in 2007). If your strict purpose is to obtain an innings eater to save the bullpen, Livan will do just as well as Millwood.
   5. RJ in TO Posted: December 14, 2009 at 08:35 PM (#3412103)
He averaged 5.9 IP per start last year, 5.8 in 2008 and 6.2 in 2007.


You're right. I somehow screwed up the math on 2009.
   6. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: December 14, 2009 at 08:40 PM (#3412108)
He averaged 5.9 IP per start last year, 5.8 in 2008 and 6.2 in 2007. That's not much different from Millwood (6.4 in 2009, 5.8 in 2008, 5.5 in 2007). If your strict purpose is to obtain an innings eater to save the bullpen, Livan will do just as well as Millwood.

Eating innings is the main purpose, but it's not the only one. They're also trying to win games, and Hernandez is terrible. Hernandez would make sense if they just wanted a placeholder for 8-10 starts a la Adam Eaton, but they want the team to take a step forward this year.
   7. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 14, 2009 at 08:54 PM (#3412124)
I think the best part of this deal for O's fans is that it shows a willingness to spend money.
   8. birdlives is one crazy ninja Posted: December 14, 2009 at 11:48 PM (#3412490)
Hernandez would make sense if they just wanted a placeholder for 8-10 starts a la Adam Eaton, but they want the team to take a step forward this year.

Sure, I see 2011 rather 2010 as the year that the team should be caught up in wins but whatever.

I think the best part of this deal for O's fans is that it shows a willingness to spend money.

The O's have been willing to spend money on free agents. The problem is that they do it unwisely or nobody wants it.
   9. DKDC Posted: December 14, 2009 at 11:58 PM (#3412503)
I think the best part of this deal for O's fans is that it shows a willingness to spend money.


As #8 said, the willingness to spend money was never really in question, to me.

Even if I had been worried about Angelos’s willingness to spend, this deal wouldn’t have changed my mind. It lifts their 2010 payroll to $55 million, which is still $20 million lower than their 2009 payroll.
   10. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: December 15, 2009 at 12:07 AM (#3412520)
Sure, I see 2011 rather 2010 as the year that the team should be caught up in wins but whatever.

Again, this isn't binary. The orioles can and should try to win more games in 2010 even if they don't expect to contend.

As #8 said, the willingness to spend money was never really in question, to me.

I agree with that, but I also think there are a lot of fans out there who are confused by the last couple years because they don't understand the rebuilding process and think the Orioles aren't even trying. That said, to the extent that acquiring Millwood is intended to send a message, I think that message is aimed more at the players than the fans. MacPhail made it very clear that wins and losses didn't matter in 2008 and 2009, but he said after the season ended that 2010 will be different. Acquiring Millwood isn't the sexiest move, but it does reinforce that message to some extent.
   11. birdlives is one crazy ninja Posted: December 15, 2009 at 12:23 AM (#3412534)
Again, this isn't binary. The orioles can and should try to win more games in 2010 even if they don't expect to contend.

And I'm not really caught up if it's a "binary" or not. The extra wins of Millwood over Livan doesn't mean that much to me in 2010. But I realize people want to see progress and I'm sympathetic toward that. I hate the losing as much as the next O's fan.

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