Orioles - Acquired Pie
Baltimore Orioles - Acquired OF Felix Pie from the Chicago Cubs for P Garrett Olson and P Henry Williamson.
And so the saga ends. After years of rumors linking Pie with every player the Cubs were interested in trading for, he gets cashed in for Garrett Olson, whose mediocre fastball as gotten clubbed in the majors when it’s anywhere near home plate.
The Cubs shouldn’t really get too much blame for not playing Pie. He hasn’t hit well at all when he’s played and he’s showed little forward progress. Where they take blame is waiting for the league to think him a huge disappointment instead of trading him when there were some teams that believed otherwise. Olson will almost certainly be in the minors at the start of the season, though I guess they’ll make a show of giving him a shot in spring training.
For the Orioles, while Pie’s not likely to end up a good player, there’s still a chance and the team is in a position to hold open auditions, whereas the Cubs aren’t. In an ideal world, the O’s would be looking to trade Huff seriously now, but with a number of quality players still available in the market at below-usual prices, they probably couldn’t get much for Huff.
ZiPS Projection - Felix Pie (CF)
—————————————————————————————————————
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG OPS+
—————————————————————————————————————
2009 440 64 115 19 4 12 63 28 87 15 .261 .308 .405 86
—————————————————————————————————————
Top Offensive Comps: Rick Manning, Sam West, Corey Patterson
ODDIBE
Offense %
Top Quintile 3
2nd Quintile 7
Mid Quintile 22
4th Quintile 31
Low Quintile 37
OPS+ % OBP % 3B % Hits %
160+ 0 .400+ 0 10+ 3 200+ 0
140+ 0 .375+ 1 5+ 42 150+ 2
130+ 1 .350+ 6
120+ 2 .325+ 26 2B %
110+ 8 .300+ 65 45+ 0
100+ 20 30+ 4
90+ 42
80+ 69
60+ 89
BA % SLG % HR % SB %
.350+ 0 .550+ 0 50+ 0 70+ 0
.325+ 1 .500+ 2 40+ 0 50+ 0
.300+ 7 .450+ 13 30+ 0 30+ 2
.275+ 33 .400+ 56 20+ 10 10+ 76
.250+ 72 .350+ 95 10+ 77
(Based on Projected PA)
ZiPS Projection - Garrett Olson
————————————————————————————————-
W L G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
————————————————————————————————-
2009 8 13 31 31 158.1 172 91 22 69 120 5.17 88
————————————————————————————————-
Top Comps: Bob Owchinko, Mike Gosling, John Koronka
ERA %
Top 1/3 10
Mid 1/3 43
Bot 1/3 48
ERA+ % BB %
>150 0 >26 0
>140 1 >35 0
>130 2 >44 3
>120 4 >53 12
>110 10 >62 34
>100 22 >70 60
>90 47
>80 78 HR %
>70 95 >12 7
>18 34
K/9 % >23 65
>158 4 >28 86
>141 13
>123 39
>106 74
(Based on Projected IP)
Dan Szymborski
Posted: January 19, 2009 at 03:52 PM |
51 comment(s)
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1. Posada Posse Posted: January 19, 2009 at 04:31 PM (#3055123)Appropriate.
(*) Yes, I know that Patterson did before he got hurt.
Pie walked 42 times and struck out 94 times in 700 PAs in triple A at age 22 and age 23. That's not great, but nothing like Patterson who was well beyond the tipping point. Sometimes you find gold in the strangest places-
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/925003.html
But the bottom line is, the Orioles didn't seem to have much interest in either that young LF or in Olson, and if they're not going to be willing to use either guy, it makes sense to convert Olson to Pie.
Pie always was compared to Patterson, and that was never fair to Pie. Patterson was a high draft pick who was expected to be a star from the beginning, but he never hit enough in the minors to justify that hype. He's a lot smaller that Pie, but has more natural home run power and a home run swing. He never showed any recognition of the strike zone ever at any level. Pie was always expected to be a star, as well, but he doesn't have the same power. He's got a beautiful line drive swing and actually hit in the minors. He wasn't a walking superstar, but he had much better pitch recognition. Both are fast (Pie has more natural speed, Patterson was a better basestealer) and plus defenders in CF. Corey had an average arm, maybe slightly above but was never very accurate. Pie has a cannon.
I think Patterson was given a lot more chances that Pie, but Pie has more talent and still could be a better player than Patterson ever was.
No this deal has several ripple effects which McPhail,rightly IMO,considered:
1° adds a young CF with real upside who was "lost" & undervalued in the "win now" Cubs system & had become superfluous considering the OF they have - Bradley/Soriano/Fukudome/Johnson & even Fuld.
2° adds another young OF to go with Jones & Markakis
3° cost them ZERO as Olson is projected at best,now,a 4/5 SP
4° gives them the option to shift Jones to LF & use Scott more as DH
Overall it is a great sell low buy for the O's.
Out of interest what is the ZIPs for the Japanese Import ?
How is this ZERO, especially for a team as desperate for pitching as the O's? 4/5 SP are hard to come by and while that presumably is more Olson's upside, Pie can't project any better at this point than a marginal starting CF or a 4th OF which are not hard to come by.
Now if you (or more importantly the O's) believe that Olson will never be an effective ML pitcher, then this costs "zero" ... but say so. But the idea that guys projected to be 4/5 starters are of zero value makes no sense in the current day.
It's probably why I stopped playing.
Pie projects as an average CF AFAICT.
I suppose they were underwhelming if you bought the Griffey Jr II hype - but as a 19 yo in the Midwest league, he hit 320/354/592 -- that's nothing to sneeze at. He followed it up by jumping to AA the next season with a 261/329/491 line.
Going straight to A ball, then to AA by age 20 -- and posting an OPS over .800 at both levels says legit prospect to me.
It wasn't until the following year, when he flailed a bit in Iowa - that his numbers dived.
I'd also point out that Patterson walk rate almost doubled with each successive move up the org ladder (from awful to bad to not good, but still)... I know it's hard to remember back to 2001/2002 -- but Patterson at least seemed to be moving in the right direction.
I still think that 2003 season doomed him - he was hitting 298/329/511 when he blew out that ankle just before the break. If memory serves, he had either already been tabbed as an all-star reserve (or at least, deserved a strong look). The Cubs went on to come within a few outs of the WS, Kenny Lofton was hailed as a savior -- and I just think Patterson never got mentally right after that.
Sans the 3-peat Pie posted in Iowa -- their minor league numbers aren't that different.
He will be a marginal starting CFer, or a decent backup OFer. He is out of options with the Cubs, so they either have to trade him or keep him on the team. He's not good enough to be their starter, and he probably had more value to the Cubs in 2009 as a trading chip than as a backup CFer.
So, he's gone.
Anyway, an 86 OPS+ is nothing to get excited about especially since it's SLG-heavy and you need probably a good +10 defense to get close to average (which Pie might be). True he'll only be 24 but I'll note that Patterson hit better than that in the majors at ages 23, 24 and 26 (not so much 25 :-).
Olson's projection is pretty much a lower-end "intended" 5th starter or a top-end 6th starter. But, fair enough, Olson seems to be getting a big bump from the move to the NL (OPS+ in the O's ZiPS projection was just 78) so he wasn't any better than the 6th best starter on the O's.
It's a perfectly fair trade and, if the Cubs weren't gonna use Pie, I'd rather we had the 6th starter with an option left than the 4th CF with no options left. (I'd rather Pie was in the Gathright role but whatcha gonna do?) But from the O's perspective, given how amazingly bad their starting pitching is (Guthrie is the only one projected to be above an 86 ERA+), I'm really not sure this is worth it even if Pie does have the bigger upside.
And nobody mentions Williamson -- is he totally worthless?
And Sabean will give him a lot of money in his mid-30s, if he hasn't been fired (or I haven't gotten around to shooting him yet).
Also, the Orioles have a really weird roster situation with regards to catchers: no catchers on the 40 man, but 7 NRI catchers (including Wieters). They're at the limit with 40, so they're going to need to waive at least two guys before Opening Day. Plus they'll probably wind up breaking camp with Donnie Murphy. I'm not really sure why they're messing around with a project like David Pauley (just picked up in a trade with Boston for Randor Bierd).
I think so too. Pie has his flaws, but he's hit better than Patterson, and has been younger for his levels. Pie didn't really have a place on this year's Cubs, unless they wanted to give him the Gathright spot, which is a poor use of his value (granted, trading him for Garrett Olson might be too), but I think he might turn into something.
Patterson was in A ball at 19 and AA at 20. Pie played in high A at 20, but other than that - the difference is the 2 years Pie spent at levels where Patterson was a jr and sr in high school. Pie posted better overall numbers in triple A (and spent 3 seasons there), but the only difference I see is that Patterson hit for more power, while Pie consistently posted better averages.
Granted, it was in a hitters park - but people seem to be forgetting that Patterson slugged nearly .600 in a full season of A ball the summer after he graduated high school.
Ah, that's right. He hasn't been officially added to the roster (ie, contract isn't official yet).
And big-Choi slugged .610 with 18 homers in 290 AB. ahh, what could have been.
Choi, Hill (ok he came in 2001), Montanez, Hinske/Gripp, Brown, Patterson, Dubois (2001).
That 1999 Lugnut team was (thought to be at the time) loaded -- there was then-prospect Jeff Goldbach, a 19 yo catcher that hits .271/.371/.489. Patterson - Choi as you mention, plus David Kelton and both Tydus Meadows and Nate Frese.
The rotation had Zambrano and Wuertz, plus Steve Smyth and Matt Bruback.
Still - I guess graduating 4 players that spent relatively significant time in the bigs is no small feat for an A ball team.
I haven't done exhaustive research on this (obviously), but I suspect one of the best A ball alumni teams of all time finished an impressive 58-82.
The 1987 Gastonia Rangers had 5 hitters who spent 13+ years in the bigs APIECE. Those five guys hit a combined 1380 MLB homers. They also had two pitchers who became MLB All-Stars.
I'm sure there's more impressive A ball teams than that in the annals of history, but I'd like to see them.
Both pitchers were RHP, if I recall correctly. I'm assuming you got the one who didn't spend his entire career in Texas.
Without looking it up, I would have gotten both OFs, the 3B, and MAYBE the pitcher who didn't spend his career in Texas.
Even more full circle, he's Rick Dempsey's nephew.
The RHP ... I always confuse him with Ed Vosberg for some reason. Even though they are easy to tell apart: mystery RHP had the funny leg kick, Ed Vosberg was arrested for scalping his complimentary tickets to the All-Star game. Thus his nickname, "The Felon."
God, I loved that team.
And as for no pitching, I guess that's the reason I held out hope for Brad Woodall for far too long.
If the rumors had any truth to them - the Padres disagree.
Since I'm the designated "keep hope alive for Peavy" Cubs fanboy, SDUT reports that the Pads are still 5 mil over the Moores' payroll limit for this season.
Only 4 players fit that salary bill -- Adrian Gonzalez presumably isn't going anywhere, and we haven't had a peep about Chris Young. That leaves Giles and Peavy - and considering Giles' reticence to relocate last last summer... that leaves Peavy. The articles goes on to report the Cubs still being the most likely destination.
I'm still blaming Dusty Baker & Jim Tracy for screwing him up. FREE HEE SEOP!
We're still waiting for the Szym-wisdom to drop on Lowe and Kawakami. Get in line.
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