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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, November 16, 2005

Padres - Acquired Cameron

San Diego Padres - Acquired OF Mike Cameron from the New York Mets for OF Xavier Nady.

This is a good trade by design for the Mets - Cameron was an expendable asset, due to make $7 million (the Padres are taking on all of it) playing at a position they have depth at and suffering a pretty ugly face injury towards the end of last season.  They get younger and cheaper here, but the main problem that keeps this from being a bonafide winner is that Nady doesn’t really fill a need for the Mets.  They can slot him in at right instead of Victor Diaz but it won’t be an improvement or they can platoon him at first with Mike Jacobs, which isn’t really the best use of assets.

It’s harder to like this trade from the perspective of the Padres.  The Padres already have to replace the offense that Brian Giles brought the team, but instead, they’re getting more expensive in an odd quest to get enough pieces to trade for David Wells.  If this was their plan, they would have been far better off using Nady in right in 2006 and going after Burnett or Millwood or see what Vazquez is fetching.

2006 ZiPS Projections
———————————————————————————————————
Player     AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB   BA   OBP   SLG
———————————————————————————————————
Cameron     445 54 103 27 2 18 57 54 127 15 .231 .320 .422
Diaz       535 82 153 25 2 26 87 40 137 10 .286 .338 .486
Nady       400 60 113 21 1 18 65 33 71   2 .282 .344 .475

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 16, 2005 at 11:18 PM | 59 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. G A Delgado Posted: November 16, 2005 at 11:44 PM (#1734768)
I do not like this 100%, I liked Nady actually, and I like Cameron also, but...feels like something is still missing for the Padres to get "better" than this year, and if we get Wells, well, they're just going backwards instead of forward
   2. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: November 16, 2005 at 11:50 PM (#1734779)
Is it Cameron for Nady and Diaz, or just Nady? Is cash changing hands?
   3. Joshemy Posted: November 16, 2005 at 11:59 PM (#1734809)
I think the way in which Omar spends the money saved in this deal and what he does with the RF position will indicate whether this move is good or not.

As long as he makes a good upgrade in RF, then I think this is a solid move. If not (or he sticks with Diaz), then it really doesn't do much for the Mets.
   4. Gromit45 Posted: November 17, 2005 at 12:02 AM (#1734815)
What's this about Cameron Diaz?
Oh, nevermind. I reread the post
   5. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: November 17, 2005 at 12:03 AM (#1734820)
Wow, that's a pretty tasty line from Diaz. I don;t think that's realistic. Diaz is a Met. I don't think he's involved in the trade.
   6. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: November 17, 2005 at 12:14 AM (#1734848)
Yeah, Diaz inclusion here is confusing to me. If Victor Diaz is a Padre right now, then the Pads won this from a talent standpoint.

I gues sthe big question for the Pads is if they can still resign Giles. If so, then a Giles, Cameron, Roberts/Johnson OF is a big improvement.

Nady was kind of on the outside looking in for this team. They are going to play Kelsko at 1B and I have herad that they also like Ben Johnson in the OF. Both Johnson and Nady are RH so there isn't an obvious place for Xavier except as a RH caddy for Klesko. Better to get Cameron, so long as it doesn't get in the way or resigning Giles and/or Hoffman.
   7. Mister High Standards Posted: November 17, 2005 at 12:23 AM (#1734874)
Here is my question how many players can the Padres aquire who are illsuited to play in Petco field?
   8. Dan The Mediocre Posted: November 17, 2005 at 12:33 AM (#1734888)
I think Diaz is included because Dan felt he was the person who would compete with Nady for the outfield slot.
   9. yb125 Posted: November 17, 2005 at 12:35 AM (#1734894)
As a Padre fan I like this deal, sure it would've been better to sign Cameron instead of Payton but that’s done and the padres need a CF pretty bad and Nady isn't much to pay if Mike Cameron is healthy. Klesko (who did lead the team in HR sadly) will likely play first, with Ben Johnson in one of the corner spots. IF they could manage to resign Giles I wouldn't really hate this off-season.
If they are really making this move to get Wells then it's stupid and if this trade alone keeps them from even trying to resign Giles then it's annoying but the padres know you pretty much over pay in the FA market and avoid it like the plague.
   10. "Catching Dianetics" by Dr. L. Ron Karkovice Posted: November 17, 2005 at 12:37 AM (#1734895)
DIAZ is not in the trade.... I believeit is only being reported as Cameron for Nady straigh up..... A pretty useless trade for both teams...so Mets are the winners because they clear a chunk of change.

It will be interested to see how Cameron comes back with his new face....Even so, his offensive stats will be pretty poor in Pet-Co....

I think if you put Jacobs or Nady at first for a full season, there stats would be about the same..... .260 BA 25 HR 80 RBI.... About league average for a 1B.... They'll probably platoon them at 1st...leading to a slightly above league average 1B I call GAMBLOR.
   11. Anthony Giacalone Posted: November 17, 2005 at 12:53 AM (#1734926)
As several people have pointed out, even with a change to Petco's dimensions, Cameron's offense is not going to be helped by this park. However, Cameron's defense is likely to make this trade something of a wash for the Padres. Cameron will replace a good chunk of Giles offense (but by no means all of it) but, more importantly, in the vast steppes of Petco's outfield he will save several runs with his glove.

It seems to me that the Padres are trying to take a page from the White Sox book on this one. We might look at it like this. When they traded Nady and let Giles go, the Padres needed to replace the production that they got from RF and 1B. Certainly, Cameron is not going to replace the .288/.409/.463 that SD got out of their RFers. However, he is likely to hit .264/.325/.408, which is what SD's 1B put up. It's quite possible that Towers was thinking, "I'll never find a RFer that can put up a 870 OPS in this market, but I bet that I can find some combination of first basemen that can do it."
   12. akrasian Posted: November 17, 2005 at 12:59 AM (#1734940)
IF Cameron is healthy, then he is probably the best centerfielder the Padres stood a realistic chance of getting - and that has been a problem for them.

However, that's a lot of cash to pay for what they will be getting, especially with their budget.

Nady's a useful player, but not someone to get excited about. In effect, the Mets downgraded talent slightly, but saved a bunch of money, while the Padres spent a bunch of money for an upgrade - but probably not the most efficient use of the money.
   13. Sparkles Peterson Posted: November 17, 2005 at 01:16 AM (#1734957)
Actually strikes me as a fair trade, which surprised me. I figured the general perception of Cameron as a disappointment in New York, combined with the injury last year, would lead to the Mets dumping him well below his value. Nady isn't anything special and doesn't fill a big need for the Mets, but he's a cheap, average player for now with a little bit of upside. At the very least, he's a solid start to the trade package for a player that the Mets really need.
   14. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 17, 2005 at 01:23 AM (#1734962)
I only included Diaz there for comparison - I sometimes include projections for other relevant players not involved in the trade.

The confusion came in that I just realized that my little summary didn't appear.
   15. Los Angeles Waterloo of Black Hawk Posted: November 17, 2005 at 01:39 AM (#1734978)
I just don't see what this trade really does for the Metropolitans.

Okay, they shed salary. But as the ZiPS projections illustrate, Nady and Diaz are pretty redundant, and as Diaz is younger, I think I'd rather go with him.

Diaz in right, Nady platooning with Jacobs at first? Might not be a bad idea, but it sure seems like you could get more for Cameron than a platoon 1B and corner OF backup.

The wild card is how Cameron will come back from the injury. But if he's his old self defensively, that could be huge in that park.
   16. yb125 Posted: November 17, 2005 at 01:48 AM (#1734987)
My few cents.
First as for GTA the problem was one it was undisclosed, there have been sex in RPGs before and Jack Tompson didn't get any air time for it, as long as it is disclosed and not graphic it would keep it's M rating and avoid any media firestorm.
Now in my opinion more options in RPGs are always better, but it would be nice if they had some sort of purpose. For instance in Fable outside of hearing the slightly humors audio tracks for having sex with a guy or gay, being married and having sexual relations served no purpose, and your spouse has no personality. But the idea wasn't bad and you could avoid it totally and it didn't affect your ability to finish the game.
Anyways my point is as long as it's tastefully handle they could put NPCs you can marry and mate with, brothels, and heck even the ability to have and raise children and it'd be cool, as long as it was optional. Of course as long as the game play they have is awesome I have no complaints, but I don't think not including it automatically makes it a better game.
   17. yb125 Posted: November 17, 2005 at 01:55 AM (#1734994)
OK as some of you may have guessed that pasted that in the wrong window. As for this topic, yeah it's weird for the padres to take on salary but if they know they aren't going to pay giles there are worst ways to spend the money.
   18. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: November 17, 2005 at 02:20 AM (#1735022)
I agree: good trade for both teams--with the one caveat that I'd be a little nervous that Cameron can completely recover from the injury if I were the Padres. But if they're convinced that he'll be 100%, its a decent deal.

Great deal from the Mets to get rid of an expensive player that they didn't really need in exchange for a young, cheap guy who they can sorta use. For the Mets, I like the idea of sticking Diaz in RF full-time with Nady as the primary 1B with Jacobs as an occasional starter (and when Floyd goes down, move Nady out to left and play Jacobs nearly everyday--although that's a pretty weak defense).

Having simultaneously freed up some payroll and found a serviceable 1B, the Mets might be in a position to get serious about making a run at Furcal in addition to plugging holes at catcher and closer.
   19. Anthony Giacalone Posted: November 17, 2005 at 02:22 AM (#1735028)
Could the Mets be thinking that they will try Nady in the outfield? Just spitballin'
   20. BTF's left-wing cheering section (formerly_dp) Posted: November 17, 2005 at 02:39 AM (#1735042)
Jacobs has to start over Nady- he's younger and has more power potential. The Mets need to see what they've got in him. Same with Diaz.

The young core is worth getting excited about. I'm hoping they can find the right mix of vets that won't be too tough to push aside if a younger player comes on. And I'm really hoping Milledge, Petit, Seo and Heilman stay put.
   21. I Love LA (OFF) Posted: November 17, 2005 at 03:11 AM (#1735068)
Syzm,

Is the Nady projection adjusted for Shea? I'm assuming it is, but I guess it doesn't hurt to ask. Obviously, I don't expect him to come close to that line, but even if you are less optimistic that's still a pretty big upgrade over what the Mets got at first-base this year.
   22. Шĥy Posted: November 17, 2005 at 03:15 AM (#1735070)
How would people be reacting if the Padres got Sheffield for Nady? MGL just posted in another thread that SLWTs has Cameron and Sheffield as equals in right field and Cameron makes half of what Sheffield makes. The Mets just got raped. But I guess that is to be expected.
   23. Sam M. Posted: November 17, 2005 at 03:18 AM (#1735073)
Great deal from the Mets to get rid of an expensive player that they didn't really need in exchange for a young, cheap guy who they can sorta use.

See, that's what I don't get. First off, Cameron for $7M isn't that expensive, especially not when it's just for one year. Second, and more important, I don't get the "they didn't really need" part. Victor Diaz strikes me as a guy who will not hit enough to be truly effective, given that he's going to be a corner outfielder, and a bad one at that. One of the Mets' strengths last season was turning fly balls into outs, and that was due to the time they had Beltran and Cameron together out there. Diaz is a bad outfielder, and will hurt them playig every day.

With Cameron around, they also have Floyd insurance -- which, granted, they didn't end up needing in 2005 but which is always a good thing to have around, given that he could fall off a Cliff at any time and be out for 40 games or more.

I don't hate the deal, but I certainly don't love it, either. I think they gave up some pretty high value for a not all that young young guy. To me, the best rationalization for it is that they took a discount for the risk that Cameron won't come back 100%. But make no mistake about it: Nady is not a fair return on a 100% healthy Cameron.
   24. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: November 17, 2005 at 03:22 AM (#1735081)
Why, Mike Cameron has a concussion and blurred vision. He's got a lot more risk than Sheffield. A healthy Cameron-Nady trade is a bad one. An injured Cameron with blurred vision and a concussion is a different story.
   25. Шĥy Posted: November 17, 2005 at 03:25 AM (#1735082)
Why, Mike Cameron has a concussion and blurred vision. He's got a lot more risk than Sheffield. A healthy Cameron-Nady trade is a bad one. An injured Cameron with blurred vision and a concussion is a different story.

I'm sure the Padres checked up on this. Only the Mets are dumb enough to trade for injured players. If his injury was significantly lowering his value, then the Mets should have just waited until spring training so that he could prove that he was healthy.
   26. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: November 17, 2005 at 03:30 AM (#1735085)
If his injury was significantly lowering his value, then the Mets should have just waited until spring training so that he could prove that he was healthy.

But do you want to take that risk? If Cameron isn't healthy enough to be productive, you are missing out on potential replacements and wasting 6.5 million dollars. I'm sorry, I can't call this a bad trade. It's eliminating risk. No one knows how he will play next season.
   27. Psychedelic Red Pants Posted: November 17, 2005 at 03:40 AM (#1735096)
Only the Mets are dumb enough to trade for injured players.

The Mets and whoever happens to be trading with the Red Sox.
   28. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: November 17, 2005 at 03:41 AM (#1735098)
I don't know that the plan is necessarily to platoon Jacobs and Nady. But Jacobs is still an unknown quantity, and if he pulls a Mienkewagijoqefjewkd on us then there needs to be a backup plan. Now Nady could also pull a Mientkewfpqislfkdw on us, but I'd rather have two unknown quantities than one.
   29. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: November 17, 2005 at 03:50 AM (#1735107)
First off, Cameron for $7M isn't that expensive, especially not when it's just for one year.

Getting rid of $6.5M for 2006 (I believe that's about the difference between Cameron and Nady's salaries) isn't a lot, but it's not insignificant either. I think that Nady's closer to the ZIPS projections than apparently some people here, and I also think that Cameron's ZIPS looks to be in the right neighborhood as well. Overall, Cameron to Nady/Diaz might be a downgrade because of the disparity on defense, but their superior offense compensates for most of it. At the very least, I don't think that any net advantage that Cameron has over Nady/Diaz approaches $6.5M.


Second, and more important, I don't get the "they didn't really need" part.

Cameron's single greatest attribute is his defense, which is best leveraged when he is playing center. He still has value as a superior defender in right, but nowhere near what he could be in center. Also, his offense is fine for a centerfielder, but rather pedestrian for a corner outfielder (particularly one who's making $7M). At the same time, they have a guy who will come pretty close to Cameron's net value in Victor Diaz.

Obviously, we disagree on the relative values of Cameron and Diaz in 2006. I'm not convinced that Cameron will come back 100% from the injury, and even if he does he'll be 33. Furthermore, I think that you're selling Diaz short on how good he'll develop into.

Nady's not a great haul, but he's got his uses.
   30. Sam M. Posted: November 17, 2005 at 04:02 AM (#1735117)
Furthermore, I think that you're selling Diaz short on how good he'll develop into.

Could be. But I seriously doubt the Mets see him as a significant part of the future either. He's got, at most, a two-year window to establish himself, and it may be more like one year, depending on what Milledge does in 2006. The Mets see their team as ready to contend, and they won't be waiting for Victor Diaz to blossom if he doesn't have an .850 OPS or better in 2006.
   31. yb125 Posted: November 17, 2005 at 05:15 AM (#1735168)
As at least one of the articles points out the deal is contingent on Cameron passing an eye exam/physical. So but I'm not sure what would count as passing.
   32. bookbook Posted: November 17, 2005 at 06:16 AM (#1735187)
Pretty interesting to me that Johnny Damon's about to get $70 million or some outrageous sum, and Cameron's become too much risk to pay $7. With one eye, Cammie would play better D than Damon.
By late July the pundits will be talking about how this trade made the Pads into a team with a fighting chance to break .500 for the first time in years (and win a second consecutive division title).
   33. Mr. Imperial Posted: November 17, 2005 at 06:37 AM (#1735198)
It certainly seems like the Mets could've gotten more for Cameron if they had waited until late in the free agent signing period and started playing a few teams off each other. Once the Johnny Damon Sweepstakes are over, Cameron becomes an attractive option to the teams that lost. I mean, really, Xavier Nady? I'm trying to find the bright side in this - Nady has a Mark Grace-type line against lefties so far in his career, I guess, and he probably still has a bit of the potential that made him a hyped prospect. Maybe this deal is made because Nady is going to be part of a Jacobs platoon at 1B and/or a Floyd platoon in LF. I guess that's good too, if Jacobs is really going to get a shot to win the 1B job.

But Xavier Nady just doesn't seem like enough of a haul for Cameron.
   34. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: November 17, 2005 at 06:39 AM (#1735202)
And Cameron has only one year left on his deal so it isn't like the Padres are hurting themselves in the future with this trade.

I think the Pads win this trade and will be a much better team if they resign Giles and Hoffman.
   35. yb125 Posted: November 17, 2005 at 07:52 AM (#1735220)
By late July the pundits will be talking about how this trade made the Pads into a team with a fighting chance to break .500 for the first time in years


Well they broke .500 last year. This trade would look much better if they were keeping Giles, but I doubt they will, the padres see that you almost always over pay in the FA market and Giles is now part of that and should see intrest from a number of teams. I grimly except Eaton to be traded for a third OF and a catcher.
   36. Dr. Vaux Posted: November 17, 2005 at 09:23 AM (#1735239)
But that would leave them with who starting games, exactly? Peavy, Hensley, Stauffer, that first-round guy...
   37. yb125 Posted: November 17, 2005 at 11:06 AM (#1735251)
I asked my self the same thing. Peavy, Hensley, Stauffer and Woody(had a vesting option for 2006) are all likely to make the rotation. Sure this team looks better if you keep Eaton, Giles, and Ramon but that's not likely to happen. So believing that the rumors of getting, Gerald Laird, Adrian Gonzalez and and OF for Eaton sound good.
   38. Psychedelic Red Pants Posted: November 17, 2005 at 02:34 PM (#1735314)
It certainly seems like the Mets could've gotten more for Cameron if they had waited until late in the free agent signing period and started playing a few teams off each other. Once the Johnny Damon Sweepstakes are over, Cameron becomes an attractive option to the teams that lost.

Damon and his 7 year, 84M salary demand? If anything the current Damon situation increased Cameron's trade value. In a few weeks if Damon were fielding offers of 2 or 3 years at ~10M per, Cameron would have been worth less until Damon signed. Given that Boras clients often drag their feet until shortly before spring training, waiting out the Damon negotiations probably wasn't optimal for a guy with a 7M contract either for potential trade partner's (and their budgets) or the Mets, who presumably want to spend that money.
   39. Psychedelic Red Pants Posted: November 17, 2005 at 02:36 PM (#1735316)
With one eye, Cammie would play better D than Damon.

You'd be surprised how important depth perception is in a sport like baseball.
   40. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: November 17, 2005 at 03:05 PM (#1735327)
All the Padres need now is some new uniforms. Even those old "Hershey's chocolate-and-French's mustard" unis were better than the "foundry sand" colored ones they weare now.
   41. Mister High Standards Posted: November 17, 2005 at 03:43 PM (#1735350)
It seems pretty clear to me that major league baseball as an entity believes Mike Camereon isn't the ball player he was 2 years ago when he signed that contract. While Primer seems to insist he is.

While many people are insisting this isn't a good deal for Camereon, it's fair to assume its was the best deal out their. What does that mean? Well considering he was a highly touted mid teir free agent 2 years ago, and now he was traded for a spare part. That tells me MLB believes either 1) His comback is less certain than many people think. 2) His bat has slowed. 3) He has lost a step or two in the outfield. Or some combination of the three.

What does that tell us? Primer was overrating the value of Mike Camereon.
   42. 1k5v3L Posted: November 17, 2005 at 03:48 PM (#1735354)
Primer was overrating the value of Mike Camereon.

not me. i've been saying that the mets would get very little for him for months now.
   43. Chris Dial Posted: November 17, 2005 at 03:49 PM (#1735357)
This a a bad trade for the Mets.

Cameron is better than Nady, with ease. The Mets don't have payroll issues that require "freeing up money" regardless of the lipservice they pay to it.

This is just a bad trade for the Mets - excepting teh trade of Nady for someone better than Cameron.

Personally I'd like to see the Mets get Austin Kearns, and give him a chance instead of jerking him around. He a fantastic defensive player.
   44. billyshears Posted: November 17, 2005 at 04:21 PM (#1735423)
While many people are insisting this isn't a good deal for Camereon, it's fair to assume its was the best deal out their

The key caveat is that it was the best deal out there from the Mets' perspective.

I'm convinced that the only reason that the Mets made this deal is because they have some Al Goldis type who thinks that Xavier Nady is much better than he is and Omar Minaya believed him.

It's unbelievable, but I would have preferred the Mets traded Cameron for Otsuka. As easy at it should be to find decent middle relievers, the Mets haven't been able to do it and they need one. We already have bats in RF and 1b that are better than Nady.
   45. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: November 17, 2005 at 04:21 PM (#1735424)
The Padres have had winning seasons in each of the last two years, so breaking .500 shouldn't be a big surprise.

Also, those road unis are great! I get so tired of the whole white/gray thing. Then again, I also love the old yellow and brown jerseys as well.
   46. Chris Dial Posted: November 17, 2005 at 04:41 PM (#1735449)
it's fair to assume its was the best deal out their. What does that mean? Well considering he was a highly touted mid teir free agent 2 years ago, and now he was traded for a spare part. That tells me MLB believes either 1) His comback is less certain than many people think. 2) His bat has slowed. 3) He has lost a step or two in the outfield. Or some combination of the three.

What does that tell us? Primer was overrating the value of Mike Camereon


Oof, that's a bunch of words for just an appeal to authority.
   47. Mark S. is bored Posted: November 17, 2005 at 04:53 PM (#1735470)
That tells me MLB believes either 1) His comback is less certain than many people think. 2) His bat has slowed. 3) He has lost a step or two in the outfield

4) Cameron pretty much demanded a trade in the off season, so he could play CF again.

I think the Mets hands were tied. Neither the Yankees or Red Sox appeared to be interested, so the Mets had few teams that they could trade Cameron to. I'd guess that this is the best deal they could manage for Cameron.
   48. I Love LA (OFF) Posted: November 17, 2005 at 05:10 PM (#1735501)
It's unbelievable, but I would have preferred the Mets traded Cameron for Otsuka. As easy at it should be to find decent middle relievers, the Mets haven't been able to do it and they need one. We already have bats in RF and 1b that are better than Nady.

Roberto Hernandez, Aaron Heilman, Ricky Bottalico, Jose Parra, Orber Moreno, Juan Padilla, Bartolome Fortunato, Mike DeJean (04), Heath Bell, Tyler Yates not enough for you? The Mets have been able to find decent middle relievers the last two years, what they haven't been able to find is a first-baseman who can hit. Now, I'm not saying Nady can hit, but you got to admit he's better than whatever we had out there the last two years. Jacobs looked mighty impressive his first 100 ML ABs, but the failures of Eric Valent, and Jason Phillips should serve as a severe warning for anyone who thinks we have first-base covered. Granted, Jacobs was a better prospect than those two, and he has more talent, but he's not a sure thing by any means.
   49. billyshears Posted: November 17, 2005 at 06:02 PM (#1735573)
Roberto Hernandez, Aaron Heilman, Ricky Bottalico, Jose Parra, Orber Moreno, Juan Padilla, Bartolome Fortunato, Mike DeJean (04), Heath Bell, Tyler Yates

Otsuka has been better than all of those guys and is likely to be better than all of those guys in 2006, with the possible exception of Heilman. Nady has been worse than Diaz and Jacobs (in a limited sample) and is likely to be worse in 2006.
   50. ECBucs Posted: November 17, 2005 at 06:45 PM (#1735635)
Does this trade mean the Padres aren't going to go after Steve Finley?

I thought Towers plan was to get Finley and then convince Piazza to go to finish his career in San Diego.

Add David Wells to pitching staff along with Jim Bunning (he'd give up that Senate seat for a shot at steroid free World Series in a minute).

If the Pads want to win in 2006 they need to get some experience.
   51. Harold can be a fun sponge Posted: November 17, 2005 at 09:47 PM (#1736035)
Mr High Standards, why don't you think Cameron is well-suited for Petco? He's fast, a good (if no longer awesome) defensive CF, and bats right-handed.

Now that I think about it, over the last couple years I've seen you say that a lot of players are horrible for Petco, but I can't remember you saying what players would be well suited to Petco.
   52. JPWF13 Posted: November 17, 2005 at 10:11 PM (#1736086)
but the failures of Eric Valent,

Not that Eric Valent is "good"- but getting all of 22 ABs in April and 21 ABs in May after putting up an .818 ops in 2004 doesn't seem like a "failure of Eric Valent" to me.
Especially since Met 1Bs put up a .693 OPS on the year- in fact met 1B not named Mike Jacobs did this: (.213/.257/.333).

The inability to give Abs and playing time to Valent after the catastrophic ineptitude of Met 1Bs most of 2005 seems more like a mangerial/organizational failure to me.

The Mets had relievers who didn't suck (many were named in a post above- the Mets team bullpen as a whole had a better than average ERA) management chose to let BLooper close until it didn't matter any more and to give innings to Danny Graves. Management chose to throw HUNDREDS of 1B at bats away- while superior alternatives like Diaz, like Valent like Brian Daubach were available- I'm not saying they were stars or even "good" but .213/.257/.333 MY GOD- they were/are sure as hell better than that.

This is a team that had a suckhole 5th spot in the rotation, NOT because like most teams their 5th best starter sucked- no because management chose to start their 8-9th best starter (15th best pitcher?) for half the year- with better alternatives on the 40 man roster.

Now I want to think Omar knows what he's doing- after all this team was over .500 and had a pythag that shoudl have neared 90 wins- so someone in this organozation knows what tehy are doing- but just as clearly some people in authority with this organization have no clue.

Xavier Nady? Trade bait? Wrong half of 1B platoon? RF?
I have no clue this is not a predictable organization
   53. Mister High Standards Posted: November 17, 2005 at 10:53 PM (#1736205)
Vinay - the value of his offensive is dependent on homeruns. Which is the event that Petco is most dependent on. Players who are good for Petco are players with much broader offensive skill sets. Good speed - high ave (singled and doubles) low homer guys. And obviously good defense.


Camereon really isn't the worst player for Petco because of his glove, but he isn't really a great fit.
   54. 1k5v3L Posted: November 17, 2005 at 10:58 PM (#1736225)
So, Nady is projected to out-hit Cameron by a healthy margin next year. Unless Cameron returns to his speedy days in CF (and I think they are gone, for good) while Nady sucks big time on the field (and I think he's pretty good at 1B, and OK in lf/rf), I think the Mets did OK in this trade.

The problem, as I see it, is that Omar won't stop here. I suspect he will try to do a lot more trades before next spring training. Which is OK if he can get good value in his trades. And that remains to be seen.
   55. Harold can be a fun sponge Posted: November 18, 2005 at 01:36 AM (#1736477)
the value of his offensive is dependent on homeruns. Which is the event that Petco is most dependent on. Players who are good for Petco are players with much broader offensive skill sets. Good speed - high ave (singled and doubles) low homer guys. And obviously good defense.

I agree with the second half of the statement, but not so much the first half. While Petco drastically cuts down homers, it also depresses BA to a great extent. And it's good for doubles and triples. For his career, Cameron has averaged 30 2B, 5 3B and 22 HR (along with his .249 average). Yeah, he'll lose a few HR in Petco, but everybody does, and his BA might get killed as much as a .290 hitter, and he should hit more doubles and triples.

Last year, I put together a spreadsheet that used component park factors to project players into various parks. I wanted to extend it to measure "suitability" to a park (say a park that tends to cut down offense by 20% hurts a particular player by only 8%; while it still hurts him, that player actually improves by 12% relative to the average player. I'd call that a suitabaility of "+12%" or "112" or something). I never did get it finished, but it'd be nice to have here, as I think both Rauseo and I are kinda just guessing.

Also, Petco kills homers to the gaps (especially RF), not across the board. Some players (Nevin, Giles) are going to lose more HR there than others.
   56. Harold can be a fun sponge Posted: November 18, 2005 at 01:39 AM (#1736481)
his BA might get killed as much as a .290 hitter

Ugh, I meant that his BA might not get killed as much as a .290 hitter.
   57. b-ball23 Posted: November 18, 2005 at 04:07 AM (#1736576)
I'm hoping that the Padres have done studies on their ballpark to determine what type of players are most effective for their team.
   58. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 18, 2005 at 04:24 AM (#1736587)
"Only the Mets are dumb enough to trade for injured players."

Pirate fans the world over just did a spit-take.
   59. Harold can be a fun sponge Posted: November 18, 2005 at 10:54 PM (#1737724)
I'm hoping that the Padres have done studies on their ballpark to determine what type of players are most effective for their team.

I'm confident that they've done studies. I'm much less confident about the quality of those studies.

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