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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, November 08, 2006

Padres - Acquired Kouzmanoff

San Diego Padres - Acquired 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff and P Andrew Brown from the Cleveland Indians for 2B Josh Barfield

I’m of a number of minds on this trade.  I find it interesting and potentially good for both teams, but I have several misgivings about this trade for both teams.

The Indians correctly realized that they had a surplus at third base, but I don’t think they traded the right third baseman and I don’t think they fixed the right problem.  I feel that Kouzmanoff will be a better player than Andy Marte when all is said and done - Marte’s had a lot of hype, but his performances in the upper minors and the majors has left much to be desired.  You then get into why they acquired Barfield.  Yes, Barfield’s young and displayed some decent power this year, but I’m unconvinced he’s ever going to be anything more than a league average 2B with some pop, a la Rennie Stennett.  Barfield’s a better player than Joe Inglett and Hector Luna, but I’m not sure the difference is all that large and the Indians had other needs.  Specifically, neither the rightfielder or first baseman are likely to give the offensive production the team should like to have.  I think those are the needs that the Indians really had to address as tough as it is to take time away from a guy like Blake, who’s been around for a bit or Garko, who did hit well in the majors (but very disappointingly in Buffalo).

I like the Padres from a talent standpoint (I’d take Kouzmanoff and Brown personally given no information on what positions the teams needed or had strengths at), I think they really jumped to create too much of a hole at second.  Yes, the Padres have talked about Akinori Iwamura coming in and moving to second or Marcus Giles, but they don’t actually have either of those players yet.  They’d still have to submit a winning bid and come to terms with Iwamura and still have to make a trade with the Braves, and other teams will be looking at Giles.  If they can’t get a second baseman, then they’ve created a hole that didn’t need to be there.  Todd Walker’s not under contract.  Geoff Blum’s no longer under contract and isn’t any good anyway.  Bobby Hill is the only player in the entire organization who could conceivably play 2B in the majors in 2007 and that’s being very kind; he’d hit 250/330/330 with rather bland defense.

I do think that Andrew Brown could be a real surprise pickup for the Padres and a definite sleeper.  He’s made it through 2 seasons in relief without messing up his elbow (which would be the 3rd time) and he’s even keeping the ball down now, going from 38% last year in Buffalo to just over 50% grounders this season.  And even if he starts allowing more flyballs again, he’s going to the perfect place to be a flyballer, a great pitchers park with Mike Cameron in the middle of the outfield.

2007 ZiPS Projections
———————————————————————————————————
Player     AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB   BA   OBP   SLG
———————————————————————————————————
Barfield   499 73 135 23 2 12 62 40 107 10 .271 .326 .397
Kouzmanoff   301 39   84 17 1 11 41 22 67   3 .279 .334 .452

 

2007 ZiPS Projections
——————————————————————————————-
Player       W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA
——————————————————————————————-
Brown       4   4 49   0   72   63   34   9 35 62 4.25

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 08, 2006 at 10:04 PM | 41 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 08, 2006 at 10:55 PM (#2233594)
I don't get this deal for Cleveland. I thought there was talk of moving Marte to LF? Regardless I think you can get more for Kouzmanoff than Barfield, not that Barfield is a bad player.
   2. NXNN14 Posted: November 08, 2006 at 11:19 PM (#2233607)
The indians did move the right 3B in my opinion. Marte is far superior defensively at thrid base and that is enough for me to choose marte over kouz at thrid. However moving kouz along with a decent rp just to get barfield who is nothing more than a solid starting 2b is a bit distressing. Kouz should have been moved in a deal for a closer or a corner of/1b.
   3. THEOSU Posted: November 08, 2006 at 11:49 PM (#2233616)
Acquiring a player who hit .280/.313/.423 at age 23 in Petco with speed at a tough defensive position is distressing? I know this board has some sick manlove for Kouzmanoff, but the Indians dealt from surplus (Marte, Garko, Blake and Hafner all are similar players to Kouz and an awful lot of relievers are out of options) to acquire a promising young player who will be under control through age 28.

I understand the misgivings in dealing Kouzmanoff, but this also frees up $3-5M to get a bigger bat for the OF or 1b that would otherwise have been spent on a playe like Belliard, while freeing Inglett to return to the utility role he looked very qualified for last year.
   4. NXNN14 Posted: November 08, 2006 at 11:59 PM (#2233620)
Im a bigger fan of marte than kouz, but we dont need a 2b, inglett is solid for this year and crowe just got moved to play 2b.
   5. Willie Mays Hayes Posted: November 09, 2006 at 12:02 AM (#2233622)
The Crowe to 2b experiment was nixed...

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/news/262727.html
   6. Ben Posted: November 09, 2006 at 12:16 AM (#2233626)
Well, Barfield is instantly the best of our "pretty good but not great" 2Bmen, but where's the beef? We're even weaker at the corners now and corner offense was our biggest offseason need.
   7. NXNN14 Posted: November 09, 2006 at 12:20 AM (#2233627)
Hadnt seen that, thx Melky
   8. Bernal Diaz has an angel on his shoulder Posted: November 09, 2006 at 01:08 AM (#2233634)
Andrew Brown is out of options. Shapiro said on the radio that Towers wanted Kouz or no deal. All in all I think it will work out well for both teams.
   9. NXNN14 Posted: November 09, 2006 at 01:11 AM (#2233635)
I agree that it was beneficial to both sides, but I think that we could have gotten more out of Kouz, or least a better fit than a 2b
   10. BobbyMac Posted: November 09, 2006 at 01:32 AM (#2233643)
I think people are selling Barfield a bit short... Petco is brutal on hitters, especially righties with power. Here's the team runs scored on the road data for the past three seasons for the 3 leading teams:

Year 2004 2005 2006 2004-06
SD 439 376 416 1231
StL 441 397 382 1220
PHI 416 380 421 1217

... and Barfield hit 319/355/484 in road games this year, too. I laugh everytime I read about how pathetic the Padres offense has been, to be honest. I do find it interesting that the replies here seem to favor the Padres side, whereas every other place I've read about the deal, there's a pro-Indians spin on it. If the Pads can fill their 2b hole (presumably with Giles The Younger), the deal could help both teams a lot, IMO.
   11. Los Angeles Waterloo of Black Hawk Posted: November 09, 2006 at 01:35 AM (#2233644)
I would guess that Adam Kennedy is a likely candidate for the Pads if getting Giles doesn't work out, esp. with the Bud Black connection now in place.
   12. rr Posted: November 09, 2006 at 02:08 AM (#2233651)
I think people are selling Barfield a bit short...

Yeah. I think if you look at the whole package, this could be a great deal for the Indians and is very sound in design. I have questions about it from the Padres' side.
   13. Gaelan Posted: November 09, 2006 at 02:08 AM (#2233652)
I agree that it was beneficial to both sides, but I think that we could have gotten more out of Kouz, or least a better fit than a 2b


I disagree with this. Barfied has a demonstrated ability to be an average player while playing for the minimum. That kind of players has a lot of value. By VORP he was the 13th best secondbaseman in the majors last year. The guys above him are either very expensive, clearly better, or flukes. Moreover of the guys below him only Weeks and Kendrick are likely to be better next year. You know you're not getting them in any trade.

So basically you got the most valuable available player in exchange for an oldish prospect with an excellent track record but some injury question marks. This is a classic win-win deal that general managers need to make in order to improve their team. Being a good general manager isn't about trying to strike it rich, it's about making a number of win-win deals that improve your team on the margins. The smartest thing Billy Beane ever said was that you have to give up good players in order to get good players.

Unless, of course, you're dealing with Krivsky in which case any old crappy reliever is good enough to get it done. But those kind of deals are the exceptions and if you sit around waiting for those kinds of gifts to fall into your lap you'll end up not getting anything done. The problem is that fans expect their managers to make those kinds of deals. For instance the lunatics at halosheaven think that a package involving Figgins, Cabrera and Saunders is enough to get Vernon Wells and that this would be a good deal for both teams.
   14. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 09, 2006 at 02:47 AM (#2233665)
"The guys above him are either very expensive, clearly better, or flukes. Moreover of the guys below him only Weeks and Kendrick are likely to be better next year."

Uh, you misspelled Robinson Cano.
   15. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 09, 2006 at 02:54 AM (#2233666)
"...he'd hit 250/330/330 with rather bland defense."

Hill is probably more like .265/.350/.340 if his back's sound, which still wouldn't get you jumping-for-joy from a starting 2B.
   16. Gaelan Posted: November 09, 2006 at 03:00 AM (#2233670)
Uh, you misspelled Robinson Cano.


I'm not a Cano for the hall of fame guy but Cano still falls into the "clearly better" camp.
   17. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 09, 2006 at 03:14 AM (#2233672)
"I'm not a Cano for the hall of fame guy but Cano still falls into the "clearly better" camp."

Yeah, my bad, I misread your post and jumped on the chance to bring up Cano because I'm a fool. Sorry.
   18. 8ball Posted: November 09, 2006 at 03:32 AM (#2233673)
So is Ian Kinsler in the "clearly better" or "fluke" category?
   19. Honkie Kong Posted: November 09, 2006 at 09:40 AM (#2233734)
Marte is 3 yrs(?) younger than Kouz, a better glove and no history of injury issues. And all he has done is hit in the minors. Last year was an anomaly, but given the way he was jerked around the previous winter, I think he deserves a mulligan.
Willing to lay a bet that Marte outhits Kouz this year..
As for first base, the Indians will get along fine with Garko/Martinez. Andrew Brown OTOH might end up having a fine season in SD, esp with Bud Black there now..
   20. Honkie Kong Posted: November 09, 2006 at 09:41 AM (#2233735)
Also wonder how much the Braves can get for Giles from SD..am not sold on Linebrink. Relievers with 3yr usage like that have a history of collapsing.
   21. DosRafaels Posted: November 09, 2006 at 10:01 AM (#2233741)
From an Indians standpoint, there is no way that Brown was going to make the 40-man roster so for me he was an excess resource that I'd rather use in a trade like this rather than a Brandon Phillips-DFA trade for a Class A pitching prospect. I've fallen on the side of Kouz in the Kouz/Garko debate, but again he was clearly going to be a wasted asset this year with Garko probably already ahead of him based on his experience and time at 1st base and Marte already being designated the 3rd base job. Kouz could wind up being a great player in the future, but you have to be willing to give potential up for a guy like Barfield. I'm pretty pleased by the trade and think that it will probably be one of those win/win types.
   22. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: November 09, 2006 at 10:32 AM (#2233746)
I wish I liked Barfield less so I could call him J-Barf.
   23. Greg Schuler Posted: November 09, 2006 at 02:19 PM (#2233768)
Bobby Hill is a minor league free agent. Not that means a whole heck of a lot, but unless he was resigned and all of the Six Year Minor League Free Agent lists are wrong, I don't think the Padres can count on Hill for anything.
   24. bibigon Posted: November 09, 2006 at 04:28 PM (#2233856)

Marte is 3 yrs(?) younger than Kouz, a better glove and no history of injury issues. And all he has done is hit in the minors. Last year was an anomaly, but given the way he was jerked around the previous winter, I think he deserves a mulligan.


You can't say all he has done is hit in the minors, and then in the next line try to explain why he didn't hit in the minors last year.
   25. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 09, 2006 at 06:33 PM (#2233959)
I don't think the Padres can count on Hill for anything.

If he was offered a starting job, I'd bet you he'd re-sign in an instant.

Actually, I forgot he was a free agent (I thought he was still on the 40-man for some reason).
   26. Rouglas Odor Eaters Posted: November 09, 2006 at 07:25 PM (#2233995)
According to Robothal, the Tribe is talking to Showalter about joining as an advisor to Wedge and Shapiro. They're getting the "Wedge's job is safe" mantra in very quick.
   27. John M. Perkins Posted: November 09, 2006 at 07:37 PM (#2234007)
Marte is sure handed and moderately quick. Marte is not fast. Marte would be a poor LF.
   28. PhillyBooster Posted: November 09, 2006 at 10:16 PM (#2234161)
Okay guys, I need some Rotisserie help here.

I'm in an NL only auction league based in Philadelphia. I cleaned up this year by playing Dan Uggla at 2B for $1. For next year:

1. Chase Utley will be far and away the best NL 2B, and will go for the most money. Since it's a Philadelphia-based league, I would have to pay a whole lot more than he is worth to get him though. (This was an advantage when other players would overpay for David Bell, but hurts now that Philadelphia actually has good players.)

2. With Utley unattainable, I was targeting Barfield as a potential sleeper who was probably better than his 2006 numbers, and could improve. But, now he's out of the league and unavailable. So . . .

Q1: Who is the second best (after Utley) Roto 2B in the NL for 2007?

Q2: Who is a good NL 2B sleeper to target if I can't afford either Utley or the answer to Q1?
   29. Honkie Kong Posted: November 09, 2006 at 10:22 PM (#2234167)
second best is going to be Weeks if he can stay healthy.

sleeper hmm : castillo has some pop. biggio is not bad for a 5x5. will give you some homers and steals.
Do the Cubs have a second baseman? :)
   30. 1k5v3L Posted: November 09, 2006 at 10:23 PM (#2234168)
Q1: Kent? Weeks? Giles?
Q2: Hudson?
   31. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 09, 2006 at 10:38 PM (#2234181)
Brandon Phillips qualifies at second, and might be a good choice (although I don't know what your league's rules are if he were to spend most of next season at SS, which is a definite possibility).

-- MWE
   32. JPWF13 Posted: November 09, 2006 at 10:39 PM (#2234182)
second best is going to be Weeks if he can stay healthy.


I was going to say second best is going to be Giles if he can stay healthy...

or how about the guy who was 2nd best in 2006? Brandon Phillips?
or 3rd best Ray Durham?
   33. JPWF13 Posted: November 09, 2006 at 10:41 PM (#2234185)
ugh I should refresh more often
   34. Honkie Kong Posted: November 09, 2006 at 10:45 PM (#2234187)
Giles might get traded to SD, which makes me leery!
Weeks was having a real good season and is only going to improve.
think he is capable of 20 HRs, 20 steals and 100 runs next year

Philips might get an edge because of his ballpark, but if they trade Dunn ( and with Kearns gone ), that lineup might be sucky
   35. PhillyBooster Posted: November 09, 2006 at 11:07 PM (#2234192)
Thanks guys -- keep the advice coming if you have it.

My initial thoughts, open to revision, were:

Q1: Giles (but only if he doesn't get traded to SD)
Q2: Aybar (but only if Giles does get traded to SD)

I overpaid for Kent this year, and am leary about Weeks's injury risk.

Brandon Phillips may have been 2nd best in 2006, but I would consider him over-rated and due for a decline in 2007. His minor league numbers just didn't predict his 2006 performance. (which doesn't mean that he might not still be among the best after a decline, just that he wouldn't be worth what I'd pay for him).
   36. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 09, 2006 at 11:13 PM (#2234194)
"castillo has some pop."

It's maybe 50/50 whether Castillo is going to be traded this offseason, and if he isn't, he's probably not going to go into the year with an everyday job (the Bucs will go with Bautista at 3B and Sanchez at 2B). Don't waste the money/pick there.

Depending on your GP threshold, the second-best guy might be Bill Hall (4 games at 2B). If that's not enough PT, it's probably one of Weeks, Phillips, or Uggla. Maybe Kent or Giles, if you want to bet on a rebound.

For sleepers, there's a chance your league guys will forget that Freddy Sanchez has 24 GP at 2B and bid him like he's a pure 3B (where he'd be no better than 8th or so). He's really just a one-category guy (BA), though, and probably going to fall back about 40 points. For a stab at $1-$2 lightning, maybe Willy Aybar, Wilson Betemit, or Kevin Frandsen? There's also the option of taking a FA like Durham or Kennedy and hoping that he signs into a good situation.
   37. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 09, 2006 at 11:17 PM (#2234200)
"Brandon Phillips may have been 2nd best in 2006, but I would consider him over-rated and due for a decline in 2007. His minor league numbers just didn't predict his 2006 performance."

His recent numbers don't back it up, but it's pretty well in line with what he did from '99-'02 (and to a certain extent '04 as well). Less predictive value to the old numbers, I know, but worth keeping in mind anyway.
   38. zonk Posted: November 10, 2006 at 04:52 AM (#2234320)
Could be worst, PB... I had a very cheap Barfield in an NL-only keeper league and the commish is denying my claim that I'm entitled to half his keeper salary because we haven't yet submitted our keeprs.

I think Barfield is a K-Mart Soriano (though not as dreadful at 2B). Everyone'll think he's better than he is because roto folks like will rave over his 20/20 counting stats. Too lazy to look it up, but boy did Barfield seem to be awfully streaky. Seems like there were entire months where he went hitless.
   39. G A Delgado Posted: November 10, 2006 at 06:26 PM (#2234629)
Barfield always hit outside of PETCO, the streaks were mostly when they where playing 8-12 straight games at home.

I also think it will be a win/win situation for both teams IF the Pads get Giles or someone at least as good as J-Barf to play 2nd and if Kouz doesn't get hurt.
   40. BobbyMac Posted: November 10, 2006 at 06:35 PM (#2234635)
If we're going to diverge from real baseball into roto, I think that Ryan Freel needs to be considered among the top 2b in the NL. I wouldn't value him over Weeks or Giles (in ATL), but even if he only gets 300 AB or so, his positional flex and SB give him a lot of value.

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