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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Saturday, July 23, 2005

Padres - Acquired Randa, Ponson

San Diego Padres - Acquired 3B Joe Randa from the Cincinnati Reds for two minor leaguers not named as of yet; acquired P Sidney Ponson from the Baltimore Orioles for 1B Phil Nevin.

The Padres believe that Nady’s best position is first base and this swap of problem players clears the fast-declining Nevin out of the way.  Ponson will be in the rotation with Eaton still hurt and is likely to push Stauffer out if and when everybody’s healthy.  The Padres are certainly getting damaged goods, and they know it - Ponson has been pitching with a torn labrum for a few years under the Todd Stottlemyre Ignore It and Hope it Goes Away rehabilitation plan.  I’m guessing that the fact that Ponson’s stuff is about as potent nowadays as Al Leiter’s is all a coincidence.

The best realistic use of Nevin is to split time at DH with Gibbons unless the Orioles blink when/if Nevin balks at becoming a part-time player.  I’d actually prefer Gibbons platooning in right with Sosa, but the chances of the Orioles actually admitting that Sosa’s no better than a random AAA outfielder at this point are pretty long.  The Orioles are now a pretty good bet to be in the race for pretty much every starter available; they’re not going to go down the stretch with a Lopez-Bedard-Chen-Cabrera-Penn rotation even if the Burnett trade’s really dead.

Then there’s the Randa trade.  This looks to be done and if so, it’s a pretty interesting trade in that it means that the Padres are throwing in the towel on Sean Burroughs this season.  Randa’s not looked up long-term, so there’s still a chance that Burroughs starts 2006 as the 3B again, but I’m betting that he’s traded over the winter.

This also saves the Reds some pain - there was some talk about re-signing Randa and leaving Edwin Encarnacion to rot, which was a phenomenally bad idea, even worse than the Let’s Tell Austin Kearns He’s Never Coming Back to Improve His Confidence plan.

2005 ZiPS Projection - Joe Randa
——————————————————————————————————
Period     AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB   BA   OBP   SLG
——————————————————————————————————
Actual ‘05 332 44   96 26 1 13 48 33 52   0 .289 .356 .491
Rest ‘05   210 26   57 14 1   5 29 19 32   0 .271 .338 .419
——————————————————————————————————
Total ‘05 542 70 153 40 2 18 77 52 84   0 .282 .349 .463

 

2005 ZiPS Projection - Sidney Ponson
—————————————————————————————-
Period     W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA
—————————————————————————————-
Actual ‘05   7   8 19 19 113 151   76 12 44 62 6.04
Rest ‘05   5   4 13 13   80   82   37   6 27 50 4.16
—————————————————————————————-
Total ‘05   12 12 32 32 193 233 113 18 71 112 5.29

 

2005 ZiPS Projection - Phil Nevin
——————————————————————————————————
Period     AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB   BA   OBP   SLG
——————————————————————————————————
Actual ‘05 271 31   71 11 1   9 47 17 65   1 .262 .303 .410
Rest ‘05   184 27   53   9 0   8 35 18 42   0 .288 .351 .467
——————————————————————————————————
Total ‘05 455 58 124 20 1 17 82 35 107   1 .273 .323 .433

Dan Szymborski Posted: July 23, 2005 at 06:24 PM | 49 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. crws Posted: July 23, 2005 at 06:34 PM (#1493799)
According to ESPN, one of the minor leaguers is Justin Germano. One thing people haven't said much about in relation to the Reds is that they are getting decent work out of Harang and Claussen. Maybe Germano will add to that pattern. But, as BPro said, the Reds need to improve their defense. The ways to do it are to trade Casey and Griffey, get a CF with more range and move Dunn to 1b. For obvious reasons, these moves are easier to talk about than to actually make.

I think these deals have a good chance to help the Padres short-term and get them the 87 wins they need. Of course, they might only need 82.
   2. TVerik, the gum-snappin' hairdresser Posted: July 23, 2005 at 06:38 PM (#1493803)
Who would start at 1B on your team, Palmeiro or Neven?
   3. The Answer to the TWolves (GMoney) Posted: July 23, 2005 at 06:40 PM (#1493804)
According to TSN's Ken Rosenthal, the Padres are trading pitchers Travis Chick and Justin Germano to the Reds for Joe Randa.
A good trade for the Reds, if true. Germano is nothing more than a fifth starter, but Travis Chick would immediately become the club's No. 2 pitching prospect. Jul. 23 - 2:38 pm et
Source: The Sporting News
   4. TVerik, the gum-snappin' hairdresser Posted: July 23, 2005 at 06:40 PM (#1493805)
Certainly, if you employ Ken Singleton as an analyst, it would be Nevin.

Just to avoid his pronunciation of Rafael's name.

"Pal-meeeeee-YEAR-o"
   5. akrasian Posted: July 23, 2005 at 06:43 PM (#1493806)
Short term it might help them. Long term, or even next season, they'd be better off with Germano - I don't think he'll be great, but I'd expect him to be a capable back of the rotation starter at the very least, something the Padres have had major trouble finding. The other minor leaguer is rumored to be either Sean Thompson or Jared Wells, both of whom are decent pitching prospects, though neither great.

Not a bad haul for Cincinnati, for a guy they were better off getting rid of to let Encarnacion play anyway.
   6. SM in DC Posted: July 23, 2005 at 06:44 PM (#1493809)
What evidence do we have that Stauffer is worse than Ponson? Wouldn't the Pads be better served by DL'ing the injured Aruban judge puncher and keeping Tim in the rotation?
   7. crws Posted: July 23, 2005 at 06:47 PM (#1493810)
I think this is a pretty good move by the Reds--although I bet that Dunn/Casey will bittch about it in the media. As for the Padres, they are scared of blowing the division. I think it might be blow-proof, even if they did nothing, but the people here are getting as restless as Pads fans get.
   8. crws Posted: July 23, 2005 at 06:50 PM (#1493813)
There is no real evidence that Stauffer is worse than Ponson--but Ponson has exp. and I think KT is a little scared. Ponson is also the cost of clearing Nevin out of the way--if Nevin doesn't veto, of course.
   9. Gromit45 Posted: July 23, 2005 at 07:03 PM (#1493826)
I was wondering if this would be the 1st year the entire NL East was above .500 and the entire NL West would be below .500 (including the "pennant winner")

I agree with #1 that this should at least get them near 87 wins
   10. Sean McNally Posted: July 23, 2005 at 07:15 PM (#1493840)
Wouldn't you boot Astacio out of the rotation? Stauffer's been fairly competent as far as fifth starters go, save for some first inning woes and a lousy start in Citizen's Bank. Astacio has pretty much sucked where ever he's been.
   11. Walt Davis Posted: July 23, 2005 at 07:23 PM (#1493853)
Astacio has pretty much sucked where ever he's been.

Well, Astacio probably sucks now, but he has a career 99 ERA+, was decent to good for the Rox, and has had 4 full seasons with an ERA+ over 110. Not teh suck.
   12. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 23, 2005 at 07:36 PM (#1493866)
A good trade for the Reds, if true. Germano is nothing more than a fifth starter, but Travis Chick would immediately become the club's No. 2 pitching prospect.

I think if they signed Jose Rijo, he'd immediately be the Reds No. 2 pithing prospect.
   13. Brandon in MO (Yunitility Infielder) Posted: July 23, 2005 at 07:39 PM (#1493873)
A discussion coming soon to San Diego talk radio: "Why isn't Joe Randa hitting so many home runs here?"

:D
   14. crws Posted: July 23, 2005 at 07:40 PM (#1493874)
When Eaton comes back, if the trade goes through, presumably neither Stauffer nor Astacio will be in the rotation. But the real benefit is offense: Nady is outlsugging Nevin .503-.410 and Randa, while he has hit 9 of his 13 HRs at GABP, is .384/.467 in road games. These are relatively small, but crucial, upgrades and could be a big part of the difference between 83-79 and 86-76, which might be a big deal in the so-called "race." And, if Peavy and Eaton get hot in October, well, you never know. It is hard to picture the Cardinals losing to any NL team in a best-of-7, but they are not unbeatable.

That said, I would not have given up Chick AND Germano for Randa. Dan O'Brien may be as dumb as the BPro guys say, but I think he leveraged Randa nicely here. I think I would have stuck Nady at 3b and given Fick/Sweeney some time at 1b against righthanders, or just put Nady at 1b and benched Nevin. .303/.410 is not acceptable at 1b, period, even in PETCO.
   15. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 23, 2005 at 07:43 PM (#1493883)
Joe Randa has appeared in 1375 games without sniffing the post-season. Who is the active leader in Games Played with no post-season experience? I don't know the answer, I'm just asking.
   16. 44magnum Posted: July 23, 2005 at 08:02 PM (#1493905)
Who is the active leader in Games Played with no post-season experience?

I don't know the answer either. Jeromy Burnitz is right around 1500. Mike Sweeney & Phil Nevin are both over 1000 games.
   17. Sandlapper Spike Posted: July 23, 2005 at 08:10 PM (#1493919)
Bobby Higginson began this season with 1352 career games played.
   18. The Answer to the TWolves (GMoney) Posted: July 23, 2005 at 08:14 PM (#1493927)
Burroughs to AAA.
   19. 44magnum Posted: July 23, 2005 at 08:34 PM (#1493955)
Burnitz has played in 1519 games.

Sean Burroughs career slugging pct is .362

Randa was a great pickup for the Reds--he is a fantastic 3rd baseman & has had a damn good year at the plate. That said, I'm thrilled that O'Brien dealt him. I'm excited to see Encarnacion play everyday for the next 2 months.
   20. Jake Taylor Posted: July 23, 2005 at 09:04 PM (#1493987)
but Travis Chick would immediately become the club's No. 2 pitching prospect.

As mentioned previously, that's not high praise.

Also, this is the second time Chick has been traded in a year and the third organization of his career at age 21. I have no evidence to back this up, but I have a feeling that guys traded twice at such a young age rarely live up to expectations, perhaps because there is a hidden flaw that only their organizations can perceive through close and constant interaction.

BA had Chick as the Pads #4 prospect entering the season. I seem to remember the Pads thinking they had stolen him from Florida. Maybe they've changed their tune - if the Pads thought he was still their #4 guy, I doubt he AND A SECOND PLAYER would be shipped out for a mediocre rent-a-bat.

As far as guys traded twice when young, Tony Armas Jr. is the only one I can think of.
   21. Graeme Posted: July 23, 2005 at 09:23 PM (#1494022)
How about the other guy from the Pedro trade, Carl Pavano?
   22. AJMcCringleberry Posted: July 23, 2005 at 09:31 PM (#1494030)
The best realistic use of Nevin is to split time at DH with Gibbons...

Can't they split time between DH and LF? Or do they both suck defensively?
   23. 44magnum Posted: July 23, 2005 at 09:34 PM (#1494034)
As far as guys traded twice when young, Tony Armas Jr. is the only one I can think of.

The great Jose Rijo was traded twice by age 22.
   24. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 23, 2005 at 09:56 PM (#1494062)
Jake Westbrook was traded three times by age 23.
   25. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 23, 2005 at 10:03 PM (#1494073)
Games Played (as of this morning) without postseason play:

Jeromy Burnitz 1519
Joe Randa 1375
Bobby Higginson 1362
Mike Sweeney 1098
Phil Nevin 1056
   26. Jeremy B. Posted: July 23, 2005 at 10:22 PM (#1494087)
Jason Kendall: 1340
   27. Bell, Rhodes and Young Posted: July 23, 2005 at 10:45 PM (#1494099)
As of this morning:
Carlos Delgado 1517
   28. Danny Posted: July 23, 2005 at 10:49 PM (#1494101)
Cirillo: 1410
   29. JMM Posted: July 23, 2005 at 10:51 PM (#1494102)
The great Jose Rijo was traded twice by age 22.

And Tim Birtsas!
   30. JMM Posted: July 23, 2005 at 10:53 PM (#1494104)
Except that Birtsas was never that good and was over 22 both times his carcass was staplegunned to Jose Rijo.
   31. 44magnum Posted: July 23, 2005 at 11:04 PM (#1494108)
Thanks for the pleasant image, JMM.
   32. Tanto Posted: July 23, 2005 at 11:18 PM (#1494115)
It is hard to picture the Cardinals losing to any NL team in a best-of-7

That's funny; I don't find it hard at all, especially since they almost did it last year.
   33. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: July 23, 2005 at 11:46 PM (#1494133)
This "Games Played without postseason play" question is interesting, because before this season David Segui had long been the leader. As of the end of 2004 Segui had 1456 games, with Delgado and Burnitz tied for second with 1423. Now that Segui has finally left the scene, we get to see which of those guys becomes the new king of frustrated expectations.

Another player who hasn't been mentioned is Damion Easley, who's played in 1383 games with no playoffs. (He's on the Marlins now, in case you thought he retired after being waived by the Devil Rays)

Eric Young would be in the lead if not for the Rockies' 1995 season. Oh well, another piece of history Eric Young is cheated out of.
   34. Howie Menckel Posted: July 24, 2005 at 03:32 AM (#1494368)
Any chance of these threads clarifying in their titles who was actually traded, like Randa, vs. those who haven't yet actually been traded, like Ponson?

I know it's just the internet and all, but still.
   35. h0mi Posted: July 24, 2005 at 05:41 AM (#1494529)
Was Ponson hurt in 2003?

As bad as Nevin's been in 2005, I really don't see how this deal helps given the torn labrum. If Ponson wasn't hurt, then the only question is if replacing Stauffer with Ponson is an improvement.
   36. TFTIO can't talk like this -- he's so sorry. Posted: July 24, 2005 at 05:43 AM (#1494531)
Acquired 3B Joe Randa from the Cincinnati Reds for two minor leaguers not named as of yet;

Better the Padres than TWINT, says I.
   37. Jack of Arcades Posted: July 24, 2005 at 11:06 AM (#1494623)
It is hard to picture the Cardinals losing to any NL team in a best-of-7

Not hard at all.

1-2 vs ATL, 2-4 vs PHI, 1-3 vs SD - all of which are a good bet to be in the postseason.
   38. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: July 24, 2005 at 11:26 AM (#1494625)
As far as guys traded twice when young, Tony Armas Jr. is the only one I can think of.

Lou Piniella was traded twice by age 22, plus he was expansion drafted. Then he was expansion drafted again and traded again. Then and only then did he win Rookie of the Year.
   39. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: July 24, 2005 at 01:33 PM (#1494637)
Nevin may get more playing time if Bigbie is included in a Burnett deal. That leaves only B.J. Surhoff to fight for time with Gibbons and Nevin.

Also, mlb.com mentioned in their right up that Chick was in contention for an MLB spot with the Pads as a reliever, not a starter. I understand bringing up a young kid with good stuff to start in the bullpen but is there anything to be read into here?
   40. 44magnum Posted: July 24, 2005 at 03:35 PM (#1494683)
This "Games Played without postseason play" question is interesting, because before this season David Segui had long been the leader

Funny that Segui would hold any kind of longevity record. That dude can't take a crap 5 consecutive times without falling off the toilet seat & pulling one of his 394812 hamstrings.
   41. GotowarMissAgnes Posted: July 24, 2005 at 06:37 PM (#1494877)
I'm not sure that Nevin can be considered an OF, really. He's played just 29 games in the OF since 2000 and has totaled only 199 games lifetime in the OF. While AFAICT he's league average or a little worse in the OF, I suspect his lack of playing time might be from deficiencies identified by the his teams and managers. Basically, if the deal goes through, the Orioles have a 34 year old RH 1B who's had a really terrible 5 month stretch. Maybe he's going to return to his more productive past, but he's hardly what the Orioles needed.
   42. GotowarMissAgnes Posted: July 24, 2005 at 06:37 PM (#1494878)
Make that 119 games in the OF.
   43. fables of the deconstruction Posted: July 24, 2005 at 07:19 PM (#1494916)
Maybe he's going to return to his more productive past, but he's hardly what the Orioles needed.

True... what the O's need is players still in their twenties. They should be trying to pry Dunn and/or Kearns from the Reds and maybe Overbay from the Brewers. Just to name three who may (or may not) be available for trade. Also a 20 something catcher with a little upside wouldn't be too bad either. The best thing about this possible prospect is that it banishes Ponson whom has quite overstayed his welcome. Sorta like Sammy Soso in Chi-town last year... And Baltimore beyond the end of the World Series.

--------
trevise
   44. Gaylord Perry the Platypus (oi!) Posted: July 24, 2005 at 11:42 PM (#1495441)
The Braves have catchers coming out their ears, and might be willing to send one to Baltimore for the right player. Estrada will definitely be available this offseason.
   45. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 25, 2005 at 02:09 AM (#1495656)

Lou Piniella was traded twice by age 22, plus he was expansion drafted. Then he was expansion drafted again and traded again. Then and only then did he win Rookie of the Year.


Bobby Abreu was expansion drafted and traded at age 23.
   46. thetailor Posted: July 25, 2005 at 06:08 AM (#1495998)
1-2 vs ATL, 2-4 vs PHI, 1-3 vs SD - all of which are a good bet to be in the postseason.

Haha. Yeah. The Phillies in the postseason.
   47. Harold can be a fun sponge Posted: July 25, 2005 at 06:25 AM (#1496013)
Bobby Abreu was expansion drafted and traded at age 23.

Yeah, but it was all one deal.
   48. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: July 25, 2005 at 01:18 PM (#1496095)
Haha. Yeah. The Phillies in the postseason.

They're three games back of the wild card, and a lot of people are expecting the Natspos to spiral downwards for the rest of the season. A lot of teams are roughly three games back, though...
   49. Cris E Posted: July 25, 2005 at 01:40 PM (#1496114)
Better the Padres than TWINT, says I.

Well sort of.

Randa was not a bad move for a team that can afford the prospects. MIN is that team, but now they're in the position where the market is shrinking and they need a bat more than ever.

Terry Ryan gambled that his boys were pulling out of their funk without a big ticket addition. But after the weekend's relapse in Detroit where players are openly pleading for a hitter and Gardy is sounding done with the Boone Experiment he's got to get something done this week.

Hello Shea Hillenbrand, goodbye lots of young arms.

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