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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Thursday, November 16, 2006

Padres/Mets swap spare parts

New York Mets - Acquired OF Ben Johnson and P Jon Adkins from the San Diego Padres for P Royce Ring and P Heath Bell.

Nobody in this trade is really significant as both teams try to fill out their rosters for next season.  Bell has a good minor league track record but the Mets have only half-heartedly used him and his performance in the majors so far hasn’t proved them wrong.  Petco is a good fit for any pitcher and Bell can still turn things around.  Ben Johnson will serve, along with Endy Chavez, as the backup to the cripple in right and, if Floyd is re-signed, the cripple in left as well.  Ring’s probably the weakest of the players in this trade, not really a major leaguer (you pitch the Ring and your team dies), and Adkins can look OK at times in pitchers’ parks. 

2007 ZiPS Projections
Player     AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB   BA   OBP   SLG
Johnson     421 65 105 25 2 15 60 44 107   6 .249 .323 .425


2006 ZiPS Projections
Player       W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA
Adkins       2   2 61   0   65   72   33   7 22 39 4.57
Bell       3   2 47   0   64   58   29   8 21 60 4.08
Ring       2   3 47   0   53   53   30   9 26 35 5.09


Dan Szymborski Posted: November 16, 2006 at 07:21 PM | 8 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. bibigon Posted: November 16, 2006 at 09:37 PM (#2239793)
That's a pretty solid projection for Johnson as a 4th outfielder, regardless of how good he is defensively.
   2. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: November 16, 2006 at 10:09 PM (#2239813)
This projection probably underrates Ring.

He was good in 2003, but subsequently lost a lot of velocity. After a disappointing '04, the Mets made him a sidearmer. He was decent in '05 and pretty good last year - I wouldn't be surprised if he were an average or better LOOGY.

Despite this, I like the deal for the Mets, as I'm a Ben Johnson fan. (Adkins doesn't do it for me, Bell is servicable, but nothing special.)
   3. MM1f Posted: November 16, 2006 at 10:21 PM (#2239825)
Someone remind me why some Mets fans don't like this deal...the heath bell fetish has reached comical proportions... hes a 29 yo RHP middle reliever with a near 5.00 career ERA in 100+ innings over 3 years. its not that he hasn't been given a chance, hes been given one and shown that hes mediocre at best.
Do i think hes better than his career ERA? Sure...but hes still no one (esp a high payroll contender) should worry much about holding on to

Heres a fun fact...Adkins is the same age, about the same career innnigs (130ish vs 108) and has a career ERA+ 13 points better.

Would I take Bell over Adkins going forward..probably, but it when you can get a 25 yo OF w upside in the exchange I'd do it anyday of the week and twice on Sundays
   4. HowardMegdal Posted: November 16, 2006 at 10:26 PM (#2239835)
Well, I'm a Mets fan, and I love this deal. Seems to me Johnson is both the best player in the deal and also fills a key need for the Mets. Look, plus defense and a .748 OPS is pretty good- and if he mashes lefties and gets the lion's share of his ABs against them, he'll obviously beat that projection.
   5. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: November 16, 2006 at 10:30 PM (#2239842)
I am not sure about this deal form the Padres angle. I like Johnson quite a bit and thought that he should have played whenever Eric Young did last year. Bell is nice, but not worth Johnson and a servicable Adkins. I wonder if the Padres aren't stocking up on relief arms because they have a Linebrink/Giles trade in the works...
   6. David Wrightwing obstructionist Posted: November 17, 2006 at 08:25 PM (#2240635)
I don't have a problem with this deal but I wonder why we couldn't package these 2 arms and another prospect for Barfield. I realize of course they would have asked for a decent prospect and we don't have any that play 3rd I guess.

Barfield, Reyes and Wright would have looked nice to me, but oh well.

Deal is fine by me, Ring and Bell weren't going anywhere with us. Besides starting pitching we need OF depth anyway.
   7. AJMcCringleberry Posted: November 17, 2006 at 11:35 PM (#2240808)
I like this trade as well, and I'm a bigger fan of Bell than most around here. Bell and Ring weren't needed and getting a decent reliever and solid 4th outfielder for them seems pretty good.
   8. G A Delgado Posted: November 17, 2006 at 11:43 PM (#2240811)
I am gonna miss Mr. Johnson and all of his potetial.

Here's hoping he can do it with tha Mets.

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