BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: Padres

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Thursday, December 01, 2005

Padres - Signed Giles

San Diego Padres - Have reportedly come to terms with OF Brian Giles on a 3-year, $30 million contract.

At some point, Sandy Alderson and Kevin Towers came to the realization that the 3-year, $30 million offer by Giles’ camp was a pretty generous offer, not an extravagant one. Rumors of Toronto offering 5 year, $55 million made that pretty clear. Even better, it’s a 3-year, $27 million deal with a $3 million buyout. If Giles is still good, which he should be, it’s a 4-year, $36 million deal.

It’s a terrific signing. Giles’ power numbers will never look impressive at Petco, but he’s a valuable offensive player that’s still a bit underrated. Since the Giles-Rincon trade, Giles’ second-lowest OPS+ is 148. That’s not Garret Anderson-variety pretend-good, but the actual kind, enough to place Giles 5th in the NL.

There is always risk attached to signings, but 3 years at 10-a-season for a player of Giles’ caliber is one of the lowest-risk signings you can make in the free agent market. If he doesn’t decline, the Padres have a much needed star outfielder. If he does decline, he’s still going to be both a far better player and a far better deal than Jacque Jones or Preston Wilson.

The Padres can now trade Dave Roberts freely. Giles staying changes the whole equation - Mike Cameron can coast into spring training at center (though he probably was anyway) and if the Red Sox still want to get Roberts for Giles, the Padres can fix the trade of their inning-eater for Castilla.

2006 ZiPS Projection - Brian Giles
————————————————————————————-
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG
————————————————————————————-
538 76 147 32 6 18 84 106 70 9 .273 .394 .455

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 01, 2005 at 09:42 AM | 38 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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1. Honkie Kong Posted: December 01, 2005 at 12:46 PM (#1754715)

Roberts for Wells you mean surely.
He will be eating more than just innings!

Amazing signing by the Padres. In this inflated market ( where middle relievers are getting 3/17!), this is a dirt cheap contract. I am guessing a trade for a catcher is in the works somewhere too

2. Russ Posted: December 01, 2005 at 01:09 PM (#1754717)

I am guessing a trade for a catcher is in the works somewhere too

Giles and Kendall, together again at last?

Actually though, the Pads could do worse than trading for someone like Ronnie Paulino from the Pirates. He's totally squeezed by Ryan Doumit in front and Neil Walker behind. Paulino hit very well in his first shot AAA last year and is probably good enough to start at the MLB level.

Would the Pads trade Burroughs for a pitching prospect (maybe Snell) and Paulino?

3. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: December 01, 2005 at 01:12 PM (#1754720)

I don't see any reason for the Padres to be rushing to trade Roberts. I'd think they'd want to keep him around as insurance against Cameron's health, and his value could be higher in ST if other teams become a bit mroe urgently aware of their own shortcomings in the OF.

4. Robert S. Posted: December 01, 2005 at 01:24 PM (#1754722)

Any idea what this means for Hoffman?

5. shoewizard Posted: December 01, 2005 at 01:25 PM (#1754723)

JP emphatically denied the 5 yr, 55 million offer, so that was probably Giles agent sending out b.s. leaks to pump up the price. The real threat was the Dodgers, who offered $34.5 million over three years, with a $2.5-million buyout and a club option for a fourth year at an additional $11 million.

LA TIMES

I'm sure the combination of salary inflation we have seen this offseason and the emergence of the Dodgers as the primary competition for Giles services allowed San Diego to see the light.

Too bad....I was really hoping Giles would be OUT of the NL West next year. Not that he has hit the D Backs especially well, (he hasn't) I was just hoping to see San Diego a little weaker :)

6. Spahn Insane Posted: December 01, 2005 at 01:53 PM (#1754739)

How the hell did this happen at this price, in this market? He must've really wanted to stay in SD.

Or maybe rival GMs really are complete idiots. At least he didn't end up in St. Louis.

7. Passed Ball Posted: December 01, 2005 at 01:58 PM (#1754744)

What does Ben Johnson do now?

8. Kyle S Posted: December 01, 2005 at 02:01 PM (#1754747)

*sigh*

9. Mike Emeigh

Posted: December 01, 2005 at 02:06 PM (#1754750)

He must've really wanted to stay in SD.

He definitely wanted to stay on the Left Coast.

What does Ben Johnson do now?

Platoons with Ryan Klesko - or maybe Klesko moves back to 1B.

-- MWE

10. AROM Posted: December 01, 2005 at 02:15 PM (#1754760)

Who is the Padre 1B?

Didn't Nady play there after Nevin was traded? Do they have anyone else?

11. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 01, 2005 at 02:24 PM (#1754772)

I'd guess Klesko. Doesn't that McNaulty kid play 1B? What happened to Jon Knott?

12. "Catching Dianetics" by Dr. L. Ron Karkovice Posted: December 01, 2005 at 02:25 PM (#1754776)

Given that this is likely his fainl "HUGE" free agent contract at the age of 35, Brian Giles is probably the greatest curent player that will never get paid more thank 10 million dollars in a single season during his entire career...... Given that such greats as Darren Dreifort, Kevin Appier (not that eh wasn't great...just not while he was making 12 million), Bobby HIgginson and Chan Ho Park far exceeded 10 million/per....This is a pretty sweet deal for the Pads.

13. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: December 01, 2005 at 02:47 PM (#1754801)

The plan, as I hear it, has always been to move Klesko back to 1B. This leaves LF open for Johnson assuming a Roberts trade. If not, then Roberts/Johnson/Klesko three way platoon wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. Remember they also have McNulty, Knott, and Bozied for those positions as well.

14. smileyy Posted: December 01, 2005 at 03:19 PM (#1754851)

Didn't JP deny that he had signed BJ Ryan for 9 years/$US GNP as well? And then go out and do it?

15. JMoulton Posted: December 01, 2005 at 05:27 PM (#1755142)

Aren't they moving the fences in at Petco next year?

16. G A Delgado Posted: December 01, 2005 at 05:53 PM (#1755202)

I heard that they (KT) are trying to move in the right-center fence a little bit (from 411 to 393?).
Jon Knott is in the minors (AAA?) and had an ok year for his standarts, Bozied was the future at 1B but after he tore his knee, they are trying him in the outfield (I have no idea why) McAnaulty also plays 1B but he's not a very good one, though he's pretty good with the stick

17. Joey B. Posted: December 01, 2005 at 05:57 PM (#1755209)

He must've really wanted to stay in SD.

San Diego is notorious for having low salaries in pretty much every field, and anyone who's visited understands. It's hard to find a more desireable place to live anywhere.

18. SouthSideRyan Posted: December 01, 2005 at 05:58 PM (#1755214)

Never get paid more than 9M ABDB.

19. AROM Posted: December 01, 2005 at 06:26 PM (#1755288)

I didn't believe JP when he denied the 5/55 Giles rumor, thanks to the Ryan situation.

Looks pretty believable now.

Not having the big $, I've always thought that once I had 9 million, getting an extra 2 million wouldn't make any difference. I'd already have more than I could spend.

Over the years I've observed that for most atheletes getting this kind of money, that extra one or 2 mil does matter. If Giles turned down more money to stay where he likes it, he's a rare one. I can't blame him, I'd choose SD over any northern city any day of the week.

20. Kurt Bevacquaman! Posted: December 01, 2005 at 06:34 PM (#1755305)

I think Dave Roberts' perceived value is way higher than his actual value. An old, injury prone "lead-off hitter" who has trouble getting on base? I'd trade him for Wells in a heartbeat, especially since we have too many outfielders as it is. I'd move Klesko back to 1st (though I'd rather get rid of him), play Johnson at whichever corner Giles won't play at, and try to find a 3rd baseman not named Vinny Castilla.

I don't think Hoffman will be back, given the Padres reported offer of 2/10 and Hoffman's request for 3/25-27. And Linebrink waiting the in the wings. And Otsuka (assuming we don't trade him, which I think we might) there as well. And Towers skill at building a decent bullpen from castoffs and replacement parts. But if any team will make sentimental decisions without regard to the wellfare of the ballclub, it is the Padres. Well, the Yankees do it too, but they can afford to pay for some of their mistakes.

21. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 01, 2005 at 06:46 PM (#1755339)

"What does Ben Johnson do now?"

Sits on the bench as Cammy insurance and starts in '07, would be my guess.

"If Giles turned down more money to stay where he likes it, he's a rare one."

He took less than market for his Pittsburgh extension as well.

22. Mike Emeigh

Posted: December 01, 2005 at 06:50 PM (#1755346)

The Padres used a Nady/Mark Sweeney platoon at 1B after Nevin was sent packing. Fick and Klesko showed up there on a couple of occasions, too.

-- MWE

23. Guapo Posted: December 01, 2005 at 06:51 PM (#1755352)

Where's Rosenthal on this???

In hospital, after suffering a career-ending carpal tunnel tear last night trying to write his 798th story of the week.

Gammons warned him he was going out too hard. He didn't listen.

24. Joey B. Posted: December 01, 2005 at 07:30 PM (#1755440)

But if any team will make sentimental decisions without regard to the wellfare of the ballclub, it is the Padres.

If the Padres are really that sentimental, then it seems almost unthinkable to me that they would let Hoffman walk, even if he isn't what he used to be. The guy has a decent shot at (temporarily) becoming the all-time saves leader.

25. tfbg9 Posted: December 01, 2005 at 07:59 PM (#1755508)

"How the hell did this happen at this price, in this market? He must've really wanted to stay in SD."

Who is Giles' agent? He should learn how to explain park effects when he negotiates contracts. SD is an awfully hard place to hit: it never gets all that hot, the park is right at sea level, and the humidity is very low. All three make it a great place to live, but a terrible place to hit. Giles' road stats are VERY good, 13-14 million a year good.

26. Rodder Posted: December 01, 2005 at 08:51 PM (#1755619)

Not having the big $, I've always thought that once I had 9 million, getting an extra 2 million wouldn't make any difference. I'd already have more than I could spend.

Over the years I've observed that for most atheletes getting this kind of money, that extra one or 2 mil does matter.

When I see a player sign for less than market, I always wonder if he is married. Not because I am looking for a "partner," but it would decrease your spending. I am not trying to be funny, or continue some sterotype of women spending all the money, but I am sure the value of the home of a wealthy single guy is probably half the value of the home of a wealthy married guy. Since that is the greatest expenditure, I think it is easier for a single guy to settle for less and be content.

SD is an awfully hard place to hit: it never gets all that hot, the park is right at sea level, and the humidity is very low.

A nitpick - higher humidity reduces the distance a ball will travel, though I am not sure if it affects a pitcher's break. Obviously though, the point is valid, SD is a tough place to hit.

27. tfbg9 Posted: December 01, 2005 at 09:20 PM (#1755671)

I'm possibly wrong, but I THINK lower humidity makes the ball travel LESS far, it is certainly counter-intuitive, at least to me.

Well, I looked it up, at least one guy sees it my way:

http://theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/260/index.html

28. Rodder Posted: December 01, 2005 at 09:29 PM (#1755691)

I am sold, tfbg9. My source was Bill Nye the Science Guy (yes, I feel foolish saying that). Nye, in a lengthy interview with Dan Patrick argued that water being heavier than air, increased the density of air. There was obviously more to it than that, but that was the upshot. If water vapor is less dense than air, obviously Nye's argument is incorrect. My entire knowledge of the subject "boils" down to the fact that steam rises when you boil water, so I tend to agree with you.

29. mr. man Posted: December 01, 2005 at 09:47 PM (#1755707)

the humidity thing is tough to explain. You'd think with more stuff in the air that it'd create more resistance. But it's been shown that home runs go up in muggy augusts at times of high humidity.

This is because water vapour, interestingly, is NOT more dense than air. Air, mostly nitrogen gas (N2) is heavier molecularly than water (H2O). So humid air IS less dense.

Throwing breaking balls works the opposite way. you want dry, cold, dense air to get more break.

30. smileyy Posted: December 02, 2005 at 12:06 AM (#1755886)

Funny. I'd think a guy who was married would sign for less, because he doesn't want to move his family around.

Homes aren't really "expenses" either. Hopefully your house will appreciate in the time you own it, and I'm guessing baseball players with guaranteed contracts get pretty favorable interest rates.

31. nycfan Posted: December 02, 2005 at 12:28 AM (#1755901)

i've always wondered what the lifestyles of the more low-key athletes are like. I doubt you would see a Giles or Mussina with 10 insanely expensive cars and going out to the hot nightspots, but i could be wrong. On another point, i think it may be valid for players in New York to be paid more, considering the high tax rates and cost of living there. a million dollars will get you a lot more in Toronto than in NYC.

32. zonk Posted: December 02, 2005 at 03:22 AM (#1756133)

How old is Giles? 33?

I'm a little suprised he didn't want another year at least. This will almost certainly be his last shot an uber payday.

33. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 02, 2005 at 04:00 AM (#1756199)

IIRC, Giles is in the "trophy wife" phase of his life. My mother had to do business with him and his ex- during the "bitter and vindictive" period. Awkward...

34. The Balls of Summer Posted: December 02, 2005 at 09:05 AM (#1756364)

I'm guessing baseball players with guaranteed contracts get pretty favorable interest rates.

I'm guessing that players that are guaranteed over 9 mill/year can pretty much pay cash for their home.

35. Buddha Posted: December 02, 2005 at 04:07 PM (#1756578)

I am guessing a trade for a catcher is in the works somewhere too

How about a nice, shiny Pudge Rodriguez? Just a little worn around the edges...

36. Most Favored Haitian Status Posted: December 02, 2005 at 09:56 PM (#1757342)

On another point, i think it may be valid for players in New York to be paid more, considering the high tax rates and cost of living there. a million dollars will get you a lot more in Toronto than in NYC.

Of course, you're probably not living in NYC if you play in NY. If you're a good player you've got a house in Westchester. If you're marginal, it's in NYC proper or Jersey and if you're shitty, you're relegated to New York's "Dookie That Wouldn't Detatch": Long Island.

37. Honkie Kong Posted: December 02, 2005 at 10:00 PM (#1757356)

I am sure the Mets would do a Pudge for Lastings deal!
and I am not even joking. Sounds pretty fair deal to me..
but then, I am biased!!

38. chris p Posted: December 03, 2005 at 02:50 AM (#1757672)

this makes the padres favorites to win the world series. brilliant move.

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Thursday, December 01, 2005

Padres - Signed Giles

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