|
|
|
Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Monday, January 12, 2004
Philadelphia Phillies
Signed OF Doug Glanville to a 1-year contract.
Apparently, the Phillies were worried that their outfield situation of Burrell, Byrd, and Abreu with Ledee and Michaels backing them up was way too solid and dependable. Enter Doug Glanville to be the smartest guy and the worst player on the team and the situation’s rectified. Jason Michaels is the likely victim of this puzzling signing, which will not help the Phils one bit.
Glanville, Doug - 2004 ZiPS Projection
————————————————————————————-
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG
————————————————————————————-
436 45 107 14 2 8 44 18 59 14 .245 .279 .342
Dan Szymborski
Posted: January 12, 2004 at 04:57 PM | 7 comment(s)
Login to Bookmark
Related News:
|
Support BBTF
Thanks to
robinred
for his generous support.
Bookmarks
You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.
Hot Topics
2012 ZiPS Projections, Final Edition (23 - 11:21am, May 31)Last: craigsaboe2012 ZiPS/RBI Baseball (20 - 10:58am, May 03)Last: tjans2012 ZiPS Projections Spreadsheets, v. 1 (62 - 4:38pm, Apr 10)Last: nemodomi2012 ZiPS Projections - Oakland A's (69 - 5:57am, Apr 10)Last: Athletic Supporter gangnam style2012 ZiPS Projections - Kansas City Royals (31 - 1:51pm, Mar 23)Last: hokieneerPirates - Acquire Burnett (10 - 12:09am, Feb 21)Last: YR Misses Reggie Bars2012 ZiPS Projections - Pittsburgh Pirates (41 - 11:02am, Feb 20)Last: Dangerous Dean2012 ZiPS Projections - Minnesota Twins (31 - 9:53pm, Feb 17)Last: A Random 8-Year-Old Eskimo2012 ZiPS Projections - Boston Red Sox (46 - 5:41pm, Feb 17)Last: Jose Can Still Seabiscuit2012 ZiPS Projections - San Diego Padres (29 - 3:33pm, Feb 17)Last: Dan Szymborski2012 ZiPS Projections - Arizona Diamondbacks (31 - 3:03am, Feb 14)Last: Dan Szymborski2012 ZiPS Projections - Texas Rangers (21 - 1:43pm, Feb 10)Last: DEF: NPW (WWRJD)2012 ZiPS Projections - Miami Marlins (31 - 9:16pm, Feb 07)Last: Misirlou is bad, he's nationwide2012 ZiPS Projections - Cleveland Indians (19 - 11:18pm, Feb 02)Last: DevinM2012 ZiPS Projections - Atlanta Braves (28 - 7:25pm, Jan 31)Last: Gern Blanston
|
|
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
But the relationship with Rolen was obviously poisoned (though probably Phillie management's fault), so getting something for him was, at that point, at least reasonable.
I don't think the Bell signing is a boon, but it does give them a solid 3B for at least a couple of years, and perhaps for the life of the contract, and give them an option to make themselves better at 2B, all for a fairly reasonable sum (he's only making a little more than twice the MLB average after all). Also keep in mind that Bell's career has been spent mostly in pitcher's parks, so that OPS isn't as bad as it looks (he was the 11th best 3B in the majors last year by RAR). Chase Utley isn't ready (and might not ever be), and there aren't a heck of a lot of other available 3B. I'd say this is a reasonably solid signing, that has a chance of being bad investment of cash on the back end (by which time maybe they'll have an alternative body, Travis Chapman?).
And, it's precisely the kind of signing a team with a solid offenseive core needs, in lieu of a blockbuster. I'd bet that they'll get more marginal bang/buck from Bell for four years/$17 million than from Thome for 6 years/$90 million, especially given that they could play Giambi and get 75-90% of Thome for next to nothing.
Regarding Polanco's age, I don't have his minor league numbers, and his major league numbers don't seem significant one way or the other regarding his possibly being older. If he gets significant time at 2B in 2003, I guess we'll see what he does, this supposedly being his year 27 season. Given that Marlon Anderson's career year in 2001 is the only one that has value approaching Polanco's, i'd guess that Polanco is the better bet even if he's a couple of years older.
full stats
Well, you might be right about the burning. And the cloud.
Oh, I agree with that - but any team trying to contend needs to make decisions about where they NEED and CAN ACHIEVE serious improvement and where they need to make do. The terms of this contract are long but they should not be debilitating, and Bell probably IS a significant improvement over the Phillies' other options. Not big improvement but his defense is probably a significant plus.
Also, I think Bell is likely to remain tradeable over the life of this contract.
Pitching is the same way. Jose Mesa led in blown saves, in part because he is declining, but in part because the Phillies starters were good enough to give him a lot of leads.
What the Phillies need are more "guys who won't hurt you" to keep the guys who will hurt you from counteracting the guys who will help you.
Improvement need not come from the top. Merely replacing the bad with the average might be enough propel the Phillies to the post-season.
Where did they need to improve? 1B, 2B, 3B, one starting pitcher, and relief-pitching depth. Bell takes care of two positions (3B himself, and 2B by shifting Polanco to replace Anderson). Thome would fill 1B, and Glavine (or Moyer if Glavine falls through) fills the rotation slot.
Perhaps the best hidden benefit is that if the Phils drop big bucks on three players, they won't feel the urge to overpay for middle relief again this year. As a previous poster noted, Bell's contract isn't enough to make him untradeable given his position(s). You can't say that for middle relievers with seven-figure contracts (see Cormier, Botallico, and even Plesac).
If Utley pans out -- which is looking more and more doubtful, as he's pretty awful defensively at 2B and 3B, and may end up as a light-hitting 1B before he's done -- Bell's contract could be moved.
I think Utley will be traded if he can be a useful chit to get something of need.
I dunno. It all depends on how you value 4.25 million / year. Anderson had one year as a useful player, when he hit .300 last year. I don't see much evidence he'll do that again. If you park-adjust Bell's numbers, you get a hitter who's about 15-20 runs better over the course of the season. Maybe 2 wins.
Could you probably get a one win improvement over Anderson for much less? Could you probably get a 3-5 win improvement over Anderson for a couple million more? On both counts, yeah. My point is that Bell should improve the Phillies next year, by a reasonable amount.
Is Bell's bat and Polanco's glove vs. Anderson's worth $17 million over 4 years? Maybe not. But I'd bet it's worth $7.2 million over the next two, after which the Phillies may have better options, even with eating the $9 million back end on Bell's contract.
If he changed his mind due to the weak offers he's getting elsewhere the Phillies could still sign him with the Glavine savings, play him at 2B (or play Bell there), then trade Polanco for whatever useful they could get.
If Polanco doesn't draw some good offers trade Rollins (who would get great offers and I think is decent but somewhat overrated) and play one of Alfonzo or Polanco at SS.
Don't get me wrong and think that I LOVE the Bell signing, I don't. But it certainly doesn't tie the Phillies hands, is for relatively low money, and may encourage Glavine and/or Thome to sign. And those guys can make a serious difference in the Phillies chances of winning the NL East in 2003.
As to Cormier, et. al. in the pen.....they're sunk costs and shouldn't be brought into the discussion of whether the Bell signing makes sense or not.
Forgot about the bonus for Bell, but although Alfonzo might have been better, he'd almost certainly have been more expensive (he made just shy of $6 million last year according to ESPN). Coupled with at least the perception of injury/turf issues, and Bell's deal might have seemed like the better deal (compared to what they'd have had to do to get Alfonzo).
If the Phillies can't compete over the next few years, I expect to see Thome back in the AL by '06.
I agree that this is a poor move compared the optimum, as best as we know. Dan's projected infield of Rolen, Rollins, Kent and Little G sounds pretty darn good. As I see it, there are two "but"s.
1) But, Jeremy Giambi. He's got issues. I don't know if they're dedication issues or chemical dependency issues or real big jerk issues, but *something* is going on there. Maybe the Phillies do know more than we do.
2) But, compared to the Bowa sub-optimal choices they probably would've made, the Phillies are better. Giambi was not going to start, and replacing Lee with Thome is an improvement of at least five wins. I think this deal makes the Phillies' baseline winning percentage about .550-.560, which is definitely contender status.
Wow, that's a really good idea; I can't believe I've never heard this notion floated before. Given what it'll take to pry Blalock loose (A LOT) and the Rangers' Palmeiro/Tex/Blalock/Hafner logjam, I'd love for this to happen and it makes sense for both teams. Hopefully Shapiro starts the process with Bard straight up and sees where it goes from there. If Hart wants more, substtitute Einar Diaz for Bard and throw in Coco Crisp and a pitcher.
Barring a trade with the Rangers, I think just letting Broussard and Garcia battle it out in spring training is the best course of action. I agree that Durazo is overvalued and Little G is probably not somebody you want on your team. Anybody know if Jack Cust can play 1B?
Just to clarify, I'm referring to Karim Garcia here. I'm not a Luis Garcia fan.
Another possibility I've heard is getting Sean Casey back from the Reds, which, don't get me started.
'02 G AB R H HR RBI BB SO BA OBP OPS
The problem with the Rockies and their bad contracts is that one of the reason those contracts are bad is that they have no trade clauses in them. Who would have agreed to go there? Plus, Denny Neagle doesn't stoke the fan base the way Jim Thome does. Unfortunately, that was a big part of the Phils' motivation.
And I like Saabs.
From the AJC: "Estrada is someone we've thought very highly of for years," Schuerholz said. "We think he's the total package and will be our catcher of the future. Although we're not sure when that future begins."
If ever.
And for the umpteenth time, why didn't you simply non-tender him? You lose him, sure, but probably to some team other than to your arch rival.
Oh, and learn to spell your name.
One of the top 10 pitchers in the league for a 26 year old catcher who has a career average of .220?!?!?!
Is there some thing else to this deal we don't know about?
Like Randy Wolf or Marlon Byrd AND Travis Lee
EVEN THEN I'm not so sure.
I hope the Braves use the 18 million Maddux gets this year to buy Millwood as an FA in '04
There were rumors a day or two ago of Millwood-for-Vina. At the time it seemed laughably bad. Now, it's a much much better deal than what actually happened.
Thanks, Geoff, that makes my day. *:^)
OPS+ of 97, 107, 100 the last three years -- Houston's a league-average lefty hitter that can play multiple positions, including catcher. That's worth a million bucks if you're not seriously cash-strapped, and the Phillies aren't.
What is Theo now ... 0 for 6, or 0 for 7?
He's never caught more than 145 games in a season in his 20's. He averages far less than that, more like 100 games. And he's entering his 30's. And he's a catcher.
Realistically, I don't think you can project Lieberthal to play more than 100 games for the next few seasons. When you factor in the awful replacement-level at catcher, I don't think that 100 games of 750 OPS Lieberthal and 60 games of, just for illustration, 620 OPS Johnny Estrada brings the Phils any closer to a pennant.
All this aside, Lieberthal seems to present a really weird statisical profile. He's a low-average hitter with decent power. He doesn't walk, never has, but he doesn't strike out much either. In fact, his K -rate has steadily declined over the course of his career. That indicates he's maintaing hs bat speed. On the other hand, his best comp, Eddie Taubensee, crashed and burned like a Police Crown Vic after his age 30 season. With old catchers, you never know.
This is a joke, right? Who ever catches more than 145 games?
I think it was designed to make it look like the Phils were trying to keep him -- even if they really weren't.
I don't know, if you offered that to him today I'd think you were trying to keep him. The fact that the Phillies were ahead of the market there doesn't mean they didn't want Rolen.
A few facts.
60 different players have struck out 150 or more times in a season (a total of 106 different player seasons).
Those 60 different players had a composite career line of: .262/.344/.476
Pat Burrell's career k-rate is about .255 K/PA. So I looked at players since 1950 who, at age 25, had at least 900 total PA and a "career by age 25" K-rate of .23 or higher. There were 30 such players. I then looked at their totals up to 25 and after 25. And if you think I adjusted for park or era, you clearly don't understand just how lazy a man I am.
Be forewarned that many are still active and even in their primes. But this isn't necessarily a bad thing as we are discussing how Burrell is likely to do through his prime.
First, these players had pretty long careers, about 11 years on average. Which is really impressive given 8 of them are still active (7 if we don't count Tony Clark -- yikes, there's a bad comp...but not the worst :-).
Second, these players had pretty good numbers (avg/obp/slg/ops)
250/326/452/779 -- up to 25
Paul and I got reaquainted in our adult years when he pitched for the Okla. City 89ers (Ranger AAA team) and I lived in Okla. City.
Paul is just one of the most genuine people you'd ever want to meet. He has never forgotten his roots or his friends.
I hope you get a chance to meet him in person sometime. He's a great guy.
I may have a soft spot for him after spending last summer rooting feverishly for him to unseat Doug Glanville. But, the guy can play a reasonable center field (from my observation, plus he's at exactly 0 UZR runs in 50 games in the last four years). He'll draw a walk and has a bit of pop. As temporary #8 hitters go, I don't have a problem with Ricky.
Kudos.
Ahh, but Glanville was a "proven major-leaguer" by the time the Phils grabbed him, thanks to almost 600 PAs (and a .300 BA) with the Cubs. He "clearly" belonged at that level or he wouldn't have been there for a full year. Heck he was a ".300 hitter", so you have to wait for guys like that to turn it around because you know what they can do.
Also, in the last couple seasons, Thome's worst month has been April. Check out his monthly splits from 2002 and 2001. Those are some hideous batting averages.
When did I hear that before...?
Oh yeah I remember, last spring.
Ever since this was posted, I keep getting crank calls from someone who calls himself "Piazza."
1) a pitcher who will turn 28 in January, who has twice failed to stick as a fifth starter, and whose K/9 ratio fell from 7th in the Majors in 2002 to 34th in 2003 -- assuming he'd had enough innings to qualify;
2) a Dominican "prospect" who answers to 23 -- which means he's actually 50 -- playing in the pitcher-friendly FSL; and
3) a quality AA starter who wasn't the Phillies' top two pitching prospects -- and possibly not even number 3 or 4, depending on how much you like Ryan Madsen and Keith Bucktrot.
Bucholtz may be a good prospect, but I'll gladly rent Wagner for one year. At least he'll rack up plenty of 1-2-3 saves.
As for the Phillies, I say good move given their unique circumstances. New ballpark, plenty of money, and their Achilles heel in recent years has noticeably been their 9th inning labor. If anyteam needs a $8-9 million closer, it's gotta be the Phillies. At least Ed Wade can now wash his hands of any forthcoming late inning pitching meltdowns.
Sure, both the Braves and Marlins rosters nex year may look different (so may the Phillies), but to say that the Phillies are "pretty clearly the preseason favorites in the NL East" is more than a bit of hyperbole. Certainly, they are in the mix, but I don't believe anyone can reasonably say more than that.
Most blown saves aren't by a team's closer. Jose Mesa, the Phillies closer last year, had just 4 blown saves. Wagner will be replacing Mesa's innings.
Unless you expect Wagner to pitch Williams, Cormier, Wendell, de los Santos, and Plesac's innings as well, your 15 win statement is ridiculous.
Mesa wasn't the closer all year - Williams, Wendell, and Cormier had some closing chances, also. But the general point being made is valid; most saves are blown by the setup guys before one ever gets to the closer. The Phils do need to improve not only the last guy, but also the guys who get the game to him in the 7th and 8th.
-- MWE
The Phillies blew 4 of 77 leads in the 7th inning (5.2% of the total leads they held). That was the lowest percentage of blown leads in the 7th in the NL.
The Phillies blew 7 of 78 leads that they held in the eighth inning (9.0%). That was the sixth highest percentage of blown leads in the 8th in the NL.
The Phillies blew 4 of 76 leads that they held in the ninth inning (5.3%). That was the seventh lowest percentage of blown leads in the 9th in the NL.
The Phils blew 1 lead in extra innings. Only five other teams blew an extra-inning lead; the Diamondbacks did it three times, the only team to which it happened more than once.
The bigger problem for the Phillies, as you can see, was that they held late-inning leads less than half the time.
-- MWE
All of it:
I think the player's actually not on the 40 man roster, and they're waiting to make sure he doesn't get taken in the Rule V draft. Apparently this happened to the Twins a while back (see the Clutch Hit on the trade).
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main