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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Saturday, December 19, 2009

Phillies - Acquired Halladay

Philadelphia Phillies - Acquired P Roy Halladay from the Toronto Blue Jays for P Kyle Drabek, OF Michael Taylor, and C Travis D’Arnaud.

As big as the whole Halladay schmozz was, it wasn’t really a multi-team trade, but several traditional trades happening at the same time.  That makes it a litlte easier to tackle these one at a time.

It’s hard to complain about getting Roy Halladay.  They Phillies did trade some excellent prospects here, with Taylor ready to be a contributor now, but they do get some certainty and a very reasonable contract with Halladay and didn’t have to give up Dom Brown.  Lee did very well with the Phillies, but I rather have Halladay and I much rather have Halladay when given the contract considerations involved.  With the Jays kicking in $6 million for some strange reason and the Phils signing Halladay to a 3-year, $60 million extension, the latter has essentially given Halladay a 4-year, $69 million contract, extremely reasonable in length and amount for the price of having a lower group of prospects.  There’s simply no way Cliff Lee would sign a 4-year, $69 million contract and given the attrition rate of pitchers, the length of a contract is very difficult to underestimate as an important factor in how good a contract is.

Halladay has a vesting option for a $20 million option for the 2014 season.  The innings pitched required are fairly high and if he earns in, he’ll be easily worth it.  I can think of scenarios in which Halladay will be a poor pitcher in 2013 (something you have to consider for every pitcher 4 years down the road), but none in which he’ll be a poor pitcher in 225 innings.

So, how did the Blue Jays do?  Not great, but decently.  They make this trade slightly worse by trading Taylor (which I will get to in the next entry), but given some of the rumors flying around with J.A. Happ being a key piece of the deal, Jays fans can be slightly relieved.  The team’s going to be pretty lousy, but Drabek bounced back from surgery very well and D’Arnaud, still very far away, at least gives the Jays a decent catching prospect which they need.

Overall, on this portion of the blockbuster, the Phils do very well and the Jays do somewhere in the middle.

ZiPS Projection - Roy Halladay
————————————————————————————————-
        W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA   ERA+
————————————————————————————————-
2010     19   8 32 32 233.1 223   82 20 37 202 3.16   138
2011     17   8 30 30 220.2 213   79 19 36 188 3.22   136
2012     17   8 29 29 214.0 206   77 19 36 185 3.24   135
2013     16   8 28 27 201.2 193   72 17 34 176 3.21   136
————————————————————————————————-
Top Comps:  Mike Mussina, Kevin Brown, Steve Rogers

ERA
Top 1/3 96%
Mid 1/3 4%
Bot 1/3 0%

ERA+        BB
>150   28%

<1.5 65%
>

140   47%

<2.0 98%
>

130   66%

<2.5 100%
>

120   84%

<3.0 100%
>

110   96%

<3.5 100%
>

100   100%

<4.0 100%
>

90   100%
>80   100%  HR
>70   100%  <0.7 45%
<1.0 89%
K/9 <1.3 98%
>9     9%    <1.6 99%
>8     38%
>7     81%
>6     98%

(Based on Projected IP)

2010 ZiPS Projections
————————————————————————————————-
Player     W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA ERA+
————————————————————————————————-
Drabek     4   5 16 15 86.1   93   50 11 42 63 5.21   82    
————————————————————————————————-

 

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 19, 2009 at 03:31 PM | 23 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. rawagman Posted: December 19, 2009 at 05:14 PM (#3417551)
I just looked at Halladay's B-ref page and other than his aborted 2000 season, he has never had an ERA+ lower than 115. I'm not the only person to think he is now the best pitcher in baseball.
   2. Darren Posted: December 19, 2009 at 05:20 PM (#3417558)
So, 4/69 for Halladay vs. 5/85 for Lackey, and look at those projections. From this, it seems to me that AA really wanted Halladay out of the AL East. Because at the price of 3 very good prospects and that contract, you'd think the Red Sox and Yankees would have been all over Halladay.
   3. RJ in TO Posted: December 19, 2009 at 05:24 PM (#3417564)
Because at the price of 3 very good prospects and that contract, you'd think the Red Sox and Yankees would have been all over Halladay.


Was there any indication that Boston or New York were willing to offer those 3 very good prospects? Around here, we had a decent number of people claiming that Buchholz and Kelly would be too much. As for New York, wasn't their only very good prospect someone like Montero, who appears to have been declared untouchable?
   4. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: December 19, 2009 at 05:45 PM (#3417575)
Around here, we had a decent number of people claiming that Buchholz and Kelly would be too much.


Probably the same people who though the Sox shouldn't try to sign Mark Teixeira because he might block Lars Anderson.
   5. NJ in DC Posted: December 19, 2009 at 05:46 PM (#3417576)
Was there any indication that Boston or New York were willing to offer those 3 very good prospects? Around here, we had a decent number of people claiming that Buchholz and Kelly would be too much. As for New York, wasn't their only very good prospect someone like Montero, who appears to have been declared untouchable?

I think the reasoning from the NY angle is that the Jays wanted one part of the deal to be a high end near ML ready arm, and for the Yankees that was only Hughes/Chamberlain, which became the sticking point. They supposedly were ready to deal Montero.
   6. AndrewJ Posted: December 19, 2009 at 06:12 PM (#3417595)
Philadelphia Phillies - Acquired P Roy Halladay from the Toronto Blue Jays for P Kyle Drabek, OF Michael Taylor, and C Travis D'Arnaud.


Halladay, Halladay, Roy Halladay... I live in Philly, read the Inky and Daily News, listen to WIP. No, this trade didn't get any kind of local media coverage.
   7. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 19, 2009 at 06:15 PM (#3417598)

I think the reasoning from the NY angle is that the Jays wanted one part of the deal to be a high end near ML ready arm, and for the Yankees that was only Hughes/Chamberlain, which became the sticking point.


Which doesn't speak well for the Jays. Not because a high-end ML ready arm isn't valuable, but if you constrain what you want, you also constrain what you can possibly get.
   8. Darren Posted: December 19, 2009 at 06:46 PM (#3417639)
Was there any indication that Boston or New York were willing to offer those 3 very good prospects? Around here, we had a decent number of people claiming that Buchholz and Kelly would be too much. As for New York, wasn't their only very good prospect someone like Montero, who appears to have been declared untouchable?


People thought that Halladay was going to cost 6/120 to extend, though. At 4/69, he's ridiculously valuable. I guess what I was trying to say above is that I find the final parameters of the deal to be proof that they wanted him out of the division, because I cannot believe that either of the big dogs would have passed up that trade.
   9. Darren Posted: December 19, 2009 at 06:47 PM (#3417640)

I think the reasoning from the NY angle is that the Jays wanted one part of the deal to be a high end near ML ready arm, and for the Yankees that was only Hughes/Chamberlain, which became the sticking point.


I'd deal one of those guys in in a heartbeat for Halladay on that deal. Same for Buchholz.
   10. Darren Posted: December 19, 2009 at 06:56 PM (#3417657)
Were you drunk when you typed the TO, Dan? It's got more typos than even I usually have over at ST.
   11. jyjjy Posted: December 19, 2009 at 07:00 PM (#3417659)
NY probably would've given up Montero plus what they ended up trading for Granderson. I'm sure NY wouldn't have needed any money thrown in either. Would that have been a better package? Drabek + Taylor >>> Kennedy + Jackson but Montero is better than any of them and much better than D'Arnaud.
   12. RJ in TO Posted: December 19, 2009 at 07:03 PM (#3417661)
As an aside, if Halladay hits those ZIPS lines, he can probably start thinking about his HOF speech - he'll be 217-108 with an ERA+ of about 134 in just under 3000 innings, with another 3-4 years of effective pitching ahead of him.
   13. Paul D(uda) Posted: December 19, 2009 at 07:38 PM (#3417685)
The Phillies were apparently Halladay's number 1 choice, maybe NY and/or Boston can't sign him to the same deal.
   14. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 19, 2009 at 07:44 PM (#3417691)
As subscribers to @TransOracle already saw, Halladay's career ZiPS right now is 274-145, 131 ERA+, which is 2nd most wins of the pitchers I've done so far this offseason behind Sabathia (obviously I haven't done Randy yet).
   15. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: December 19, 2009 at 07:46 PM (#3417692)
Did you guys know that Halladay's whole name is Harry Leroy Halladay? How did I not know this already?
   16. Lassus Posted: December 19, 2009 at 07:53 PM (#3417696)
The REAL King Harry!
   17. Boileryard Posted: December 19, 2009 at 08:28 PM (#3417716)
Did you guys know that Halladay's whole name is Harry Leroy Halladay?

Harry Leroy Halladay III
   18. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: December 19, 2009 at 08:34 PM (#3417720)
It just keeps getting better and better.
   19. Walt Davis Posted: December 19, 2009 at 09:19 PM (#3417753)
Mike Mussina, Kevin Brown, Steve Rogers

Interesting comps. Ages 29-32:

Rogers 967 IP, 125 ERA+
Mussina 876 IP, 132 ERA+
Brown 813 IP, 141 ERA+

Ages 33-36:

Rogers 480 IP, 93 ERA+, done at 35
Mussina 774 IP, 108 ERA+ (roughly John Lackey's projection)
Brown 855 IP, 156 ERA+ (despite missing half a season)

I hate pitchers. :-)
   20. Walt Davis Posted: December 19, 2009 at 09:58 PM (#3417772)
I'll add that the Jays look to have done substantially better here than teams did in the Santana, Sabathia or either Lee trade, probably even better than the Haren trade. (They may have made it worse for themselves with the Taylor-Wallace swap but that's a different matter.)
   21. Shalimar Posted: December 21, 2009 at 04:15 AM (#3418371)
Has Peavy's stock gone down so much recently that he isn't considered to be in that league anymore, or are people just forgetting he was traded?
   22. jyjjy Posted: December 21, 2009 at 04:50 AM (#3418375)
I think it's more that Peavy contract pays him over 17 mill per for the next 3 years so he was already being payed roughly market value at the time of the trade.
   23. Willie Mayspedes Posted: December 22, 2009 at 01:29 AM (#3419104)
probably even better than the Haren trade


How is that? Are you saying the trade as a whole (Haren had more cheap years) or just the prospects involved?

Anderson + Carter + Carlos Gonzalez is similar to Drabek + Taylor + D'Arnaud (I think Taylor is better than Gonzalez but I think Carter is better than D'Arnaud). Then throw Greg Smith and Aaron Cuningham in and I'd say the Haren deal was a better haul especially once Anderson and Chris Carter upped their prospect status afterwards.

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