Phillies - Acquired Halladay
Philadelphia Phillies - Acquired P Roy Halladay from the Toronto Blue Jays for P Kyle Drabek, OF Michael Taylor, and C Travis D’Arnaud.
As big as the whole Halladay schmozz was, it wasn’t really a multi-team trade, but several traditional trades happening at the same time. That makes it a litlte easier to tackle these one at a time.
It’s hard to complain about getting Roy Halladay. They Phillies did trade some excellent prospects here, with Taylor ready to be a contributor now, but they do get some certainty and a very reasonable contract with Halladay and didn’t have to give up Dom Brown. Lee did very well with the Phillies, but I rather have Halladay and I much rather have Halladay when given the contract considerations involved. With the Jays kicking in $6 million for some strange reason and the Phils signing Halladay to a 3-year, $60 million extension, the latter has essentially given Halladay a 4-year, $69 million contract, extremely reasonable in length and amount for the price of having a lower group of prospects. There’s simply no way Cliff Lee would sign a 4-year, $69 million contract and given the attrition rate of pitchers, the length of a contract is very difficult to underestimate as an important factor in how good a contract is.
Halladay has a vesting option for a $20 million option for the 2014 season. The innings pitched required are fairly high and if he earns in, he’ll be easily worth it. I can think of scenarios in which Halladay will be a poor pitcher in 2013 (something you have to consider for every pitcher 4 years down the road), but none in which he’ll be a poor pitcher in 225 innings.
So, how did the Blue Jays do? Not great, but decently. They make this trade slightly worse by trading Taylor (which I will get to in the next entry), but given some of the rumors flying around with J.A. Happ being a key piece of the deal, Jays fans can be slightly relieved. The team’s going to be pretty lousy, but Drabek bounced back from surgery very well and D’Arnaud, still very far away, at least gives the Jays a decent catching prospect which they need.
Overall, on this portion of the blockbuster, the Phils do very well and the Jays do somewhere in the middle.
ZiPS Projection - Roy Halladay
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W L G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
————————————————————————————————-
2010 19 8 32 32 233.1 223 82 20 37 202 3.16 138
2011 17 8 30 30 220.2 213 79 19 36 188 3.22 136
2012 17 8 29 29 214.0 206 77 19 36 185 3.24 135
2013 16 8 28 27 201.2 193 72 17 34 176 3.21 136
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Top Comps: Mike Mussina, Kevin Brown, Steve Rogers
ERA
Top 1/3 96%
Mid 1/3 4%
Bot 1/3 0%
ERA+ BB
>150 28%
<1.5 65%
>
140 47% <2.0 98%
>
130 66% <2.5 100%
>
120 84% <3.0 100%
>
110 96% <3.5 100%
>
100 100% <4.0 100%
>
90 100%
>80 100% HR
>70 100% <0.7 45%
<1.0 89%
K/9 <1.3 98%
>9 9% <1.6 99%
>8 38%
>7 81%
>6 98%
(Based on Projected IP)
2010 ZiPS Projections
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Player W L G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
————————————————————————————————-
Drabek 4 5 16 15 86.1 93 50 11 42 63 5.21 82
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Dan Szymborski
Posted: December 19, 2009 at 03:31 PM |
23 comment(s)
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1. rawagman Posted: December 19, 2009 at 05:14 PM (#3417551)Was there any indication that Boston or New York were willing to offer those 3 very good prospects? Around here, we had a decent number of people claiming that Buchholz and Kelly would be too much. As for New York, wasn't their only very good prospect someone like Montero, who appears to have been declared untouchable?
Probably the same people who though the Sox shouldn't try to sign Mark Teixeira because he might block Lars Anderson.
I think the reasoning from the NY angle is that the Jays wanted one part of the deal to be a high end near ML ready arm, and for the Yankees that was only Hughes/Chamberlain, which became the sticking point. They supposedly were ready to deal Montero.
Halladay, Halladay, Roy Halladay... I live in Philly, read the Inky and Daily News, listen to WIP. No, this trade didn't get any kind of local media coverage.
I think the reasoning from the NY angle is that the Jays wanted one part of the deal to be a high end near ML ready arm, and for the Yankees that was only Hughes/Chamberlain, which became the sticking point.
Which doesn't speak well for the Jays. Not because a high-end ML ready arm isn't valuable, but if you constrain what you want, you also constrain what you can possibly get.
People thought that Halladay was going to cost 6/120 to extend, though. At 4/69, he's ridiculously valuable. I guess what I was trying to say above is that I find the final parameters of the deal to be proof that they wanted him out of the division, because I cannot believe that either of the big dogs would have passed up that trade.
I'd deal one of those guys in in a heartbeat for Halladay on that deal. Same for Buchholz.
Harry Leroy Halladay III
Interesting comps. Ages 29-32:
Rogers 967 IP, 125 ERA+
Mussina 876 IP, 132 ERA+
Brown 813 IP, 141 ERA+
Ages 33-36:
Rogers 480 IP, 93 ERA+, done at 35
Mussina 774 IP, 108 ERA+ (roughly John Lackey's projection)
Brown 855 IP, 156 ERA+ (despite missing half a season)
I hate pitchers. :-)
How is that? Are you saying the trade as a whole (Haren had more cheap years) or just the prospects involved?
Anderson + Carter + Carlos Gonzalez is similar to Drabek + Taylor + D'Arnaud (I think Taylor is better than Gonzalez but I think Carter is better than D'Arnaud). Then throw Greg Smith and Aaron Cuningham in and I'd say the Haren deal was a better haul especially once Anderson and Chris Carter upped their prospect status afterwards.
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