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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Thursday, November 08, 2007

Phillies - Acquired Lidge

Philadelphia Phillies - Acquired P Brad Lidge and SS Eric Bruntlett from the Houston Astros for P Geoff Geary, OF Michael Bourn, and 3B Michael Costanzo.

To be honest, this looks more like roster-churning than anything else.  Neither team really addressed either a short-term or long-term need.  I still like Lidge a lot and while he’s not the pitcher he once was, he’s still pretty good.  However, the Phillies only get to keep Lidge for certain for a year and Citizens Bank seems to be a poor fit for a guy who’s prone to giving up a homer at an inconvenient time.  Geary’s not as good (the projection difference reflects the parks) as Lidge, but he’s better than his 2007 ERA.  On the plus side, this almost certainly moves Myers to the rotation, where he should’ve been all along, but they didn’t necessarily have to get Lidge to do that.

Costanzo and Bruntlett are essentially role players.  Bruntlett can play any position, but won’t remind anyone of Tony Phillips with the bat and Costanzo has some pop, but isn’t a terribly disciplined hitter.

That leaves Bourn, who played pretty well in limited playing time for the Phillies in 2007.  Unfortunately, in more extended playing time, he was quite a bit less inspiring before 2007, with the exception of an excellent full-season debut in 2004.  It’s still premature to think that he can really better than a 5th outfielder and if the Astros were run by someone like Ed Wade, there would be a real chance that Bourn would interfere with the superior Lee-Pence-Scott outfield alignment.  Uh-oh…

2008 ZiPS Projections
——————————————————————————————-
Player     W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA
——————————————————————————————-
Lidge     4   3 72   0   72   63   31 10 31 91 3.88
Geary     5   3 70   0   90   91   37   8 24 57 3.70
——————————————————————————————-

 

2008 ZiPS Projections
———————————————————————————————————
Player     AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB   BA   OBP   SLG
———————————————————————————————————
Bourn     458 60 112 13 6   4 30 38 100 22 .245 .306 .325
Bruntlett   263 33   65 13 2   2 29 30 47   9 .247 .328 .335
Costanzo   475 39 107 23 1 14 53 45 154   0 .225 .300 .366
———————————————————————————————————

 

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 08, 2007 at 05:48 AM | 31 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. J. Michael Neal Posted: November 08, 2007 at 06:40 AM (#2608986)
As someone who just picked up Brett Myers on an ugly contract as a salary dump, this is remarkably fortuitous.
   2. St.Philly Posted: November 08, 2007 at 06:58 AM (#2608993)
No, in the abstract, the Phils didn't have to make a trade to move Myers back to the rotation, but it sure seemed that was the only way they were going to do it.

Any ZiPS on Myers as a starter?
   3. J. Michael Neal Posted: November 08, 2007 at 07:06 AM (#2608997)
Of course, I also own Luke Scott on a really nice contract, so things have an ugly way of evening out.
   4. Suff Posted: November 08, 2007 at 03:33 PM (#2609216)
I don't think Michael Bourn is what they have in mind, but the Astros seem intent on replacing Luke Scott (and moving Pence to RF).

It's irritating; the worst thing about Tim Purpura (and there were many) is that he seemed to lock in on something as the team's worst problem that either wasn't a problem at all or certainly not the team's worst problem (such as thinking the Astros MUST improve on the Ensberg/Lamb situation at 3B, while leaving gaping offensive holes throughout the rest of the lineup). Now with Wade targeting CF as his top offseason priority, it looks like Wade has the same disease.
   5. oscar madisox Posted: November 08, 2007 at 04:42 PM (#2609337)
It's hard to believe this is the best the Astros could do for Lidge. In a perfect world none of the three players Houston got makes any impact in 2008 or beyond. Maybe Geary will. You know how Ed Wade loves middle relievers.
   6. Rodder Posted: November 08, 2007 at 04:51 PM (#2609352)
Neither team really addressed either a short-term or long-term need.

I think the Phils definitely addressed a short-term need for starting pitching. I look at it this way, Myers and Lidge are a wash as closers, so the Phils basically traded this package for starting pitcher Brett Myers. To quote Pat Gillick, "Brett Myers is better than any starter available."

True, this fixes nothing long-term. I wouldn't be surprised to see Philly move Myers back to closer in 2009, and look for a starting pitcher in a better market next winter. I am not saying it is what they should do; but given Myers preference to close, it wouldn't be a surprise.
   7. Nasty Nate Posted: November 08, 2007 at 04:58 PM (#2609357)
Citizens Bank seems to be a poor fit for a guy who's prone to giving up a homer at an inconvenient time


well CBP is a poor fit for any pitcher, so i think except for the rare Lowe/Wang type, a strikeout pitcher like Lidge is the best fit you can get
   8. Bad Doctor Posted: November 08, 2007 at 05:04 PM (#2609364)
The other Lidge thread had a discussion of whether the Phils should now go after A Rod. What about Mike Cameron, on a discount given his inability to play in April? They have Werth (with Victorino in center) to hold down the fort during his absence, and his offense/defense value is about the same as Rowand's, with fewer years and less $$$. Use Werth as Burrell's legs/glove ... given that this player gets so many high leverage at-bats, I don't want another Bourn/Roberson-type. We don't need great legs and glove to the detriment of all else.
   9. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 08, 2007 at 05:13 PM (#2609377)
I actually don't like this trade for either team. Philly could have addressed the closer position through free agency, and Houston seems foolish for wanting to get Michael Bourn at the expense of Luke Scott. Bleh.

It is nice to see a pure baseball trade this winter instead of salary dump after salary dump.
   10. Famous Original Joe C Posted: November 08, 2007 at 05:29 PM (#2609411)
J. Michael Neal - are you Dearborn in the MWBL? Did I get Oswalt from you
   11. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: November 08, 2007 at 05:34 PM (#2609420)
I read this as "Phillies - Acquired Lidle"...
   12. Nasty Nate Posted: November 08, 2007 at 05:37 PM (#2609423)
I read this as "Phillies - Acquired Lidle"...


that was the Angels
   13. zonk Posted: November 08, 2007 at 05:48 PM (#2609440)
I actually don't like this trade for either team. Philly could have addressed the closer position through free agency [or a deal with the Cubs],

...or did you mean adequately address?
   14. PatrickInTheWoods, Apostate Posted: November 08, 2007 at 05:56 PM (#2609452)
that was the Angels

Boooooo!
   15. The District Attorney Posted: November 08, 2007 at 05:58 PM (#2609453)
Well, at least he thinks Lidle went in the right direction.
   16. Amit Posted: November 08, 2007 at 06:13 PM (#2609472)
"that was the Angels"

maybe the marlins?
   17. Nasty Nate Posted: November 08, 2007 at 06:23 PM (#2609483)
i couldnt resist

at least i didnt say devil rays
   18. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: November 08, 2007 at 06:53 PM (#2609521)
Marlins? Devil Rays? I think you have Lidle confused with John F. Kennedy Jr.
   19. Honkie Kong Posted: November 08, 2007 at 06:58 PM (#2609526)
bad people, bad people!

Lidle minds are the devil's workshop
   20. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: November 08, 2007 at 07:27 PM (#2609566)
Um... isn't Tampa Bay just the Rays now?
   21. St.Philly Posted: November 08, 2007 at 08:44 PM (#2609634)
Citizens Bank seems to be a poor fit for a guy who's prone to giving up a homer at an inconvenient time



well CBP is a poor fit for any pitcher, so i think except for the rare Lowe/Wang type, a strikeout pitcher like Lidge is the best fit you can get


Oddly enough, Hamels, Kendrick and Moyer all had lower ERAs at home than the road.
   22. aleskel Posted: November 08, 2007 at 08:55 PM (#2609641)
Um... isn't Tampa Bay just the Rays now?

I think Tampa Bay could change their name to the Ham Fighters, and no one would notice
   23. Gaelan Posted: November 08, 2007 at 09:02 PM (#2609644)
well CBP is a poor fit for any pitcher, so i think except for the rare Lowe/Wang type, a strikeout pitcher like Lidge is the best fit you can get


This brings up an interesting point. Instead of GB/FB rates would it not be better to measure FB/out or FB/BIP?
   24. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: November 08, 2007 at 09:11 PM (#2609651)
I think Tampa Bay could change their name to the Ham Fighters, and no one would notice

I was disappointed to find jerseys that only said "Fighters" rather than "Ham Fighters", even after I realized that the Nippon Ham Co. didn't intend their team to be known as the "Ham Fighters".
   25. Rodder Posted: November 08, 2007 at 09:20 PM (#2609660)
Here is the news I was hoping for:

Phil's close to resigning Romero
   26. andrewberg Posted: November 08, 2007 at 09:39 PM (#2609681)
With Romero and Lidge at the back of the bullpen, the 8th and 9th innings of Phillies games are going to look like one Dave Kingman AB after another.
   27. Rodder Posted: November 08, 2007 at 09:50 PM (#2609691)
Well, there is Ryan Madson and Tom Gordon as well. So, depending on health, could be decent.
   28. 1k5v3L Posted: November 11, 2007 at 12:44 AM (#2611485)
Rosenthal: http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7431152

The Phillies, continuing to fortify their pitching staff, have re-signed free-agent left-hander J.C. Romero to a three-year, $12 million contract, according to major-league sources.

The deal includes a club option for a fourth year that could bring the total value of the deal to $16.75 million.
   29. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: November 11, 2007 at 12:17 PM (#2611604)
I read this as "Phillies - Acquired Lidle"...

I'm so glad somebody else confessed to thsi first.
   30. alkeiper Posted: November 12, 2007 at 01:38 AM (#2611871)
Juan Pierre hit .397 with a .471 OBP against the Phillies in 2003. Ever since, Ed Wade has been obsessed with getting Pierre-esqe players on his team. It started with a year of lusting after Endy Chavez and now this.

I'm happy to see Bourn get a starting job though. I'm looking forward to seeing what he can do.
   31. Greg Pope thinks the Cubs are reeking havoc Posted: November 12, 2007 at 01:51 AM (#2611874)
I think Tampa Bay could change their name to the Ham Fighters, and no one would notice

I'd buy a jersey or cap that said Tampa Bay Ham Fighters.

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