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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Friday, December 21, 2007

Phillies - Signed Jenkins

Philadelphia Phillies - Signed LF Geoff Jenkins to a 2-year, $13 million contract.

Kind of high-priced for a platoon outfielder, but Jenkins should be adequate in the role and might actually get onto the field for more games than the 5 or so that a Snelling/Werth platoon would be healthy for.  Like a lot of NL teams, the Phils are close enough to being in the playoffs that they feel they can spend aggressively.  I wouldn’t be surprised if this phenomenon helps the NL close the gap somewhat over the next few seasons.  The Phils had no in-system alternative, with the exception of a healthy Chris Snelling, which I have to believe is a mythical creature at this point.

2008 ZiPS Projection - Geoff Jenkins
—————————————————————————————————————————————————
          AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB   BA   OBP   SLG   OPS+  RAR DR VALUE ($M)
—————————————————————————————————————————————————
Projection   390 49 105 23 1 17 76 34 107   1 .269 .345 .464   103   4   6   $4.1
2009?      372 47   99 21 1 16 68 34 100   1 .266 .344 .457   101   3   5   $3.9
—————————————————————————————————————————————————
Opt. (15%)  454 69 128 28 3 23 89 51 118   3 .282 .372 .509   121   19   9    
Pes. (15%)  349 38   84 16 0 13 52 25 103   0 .241 .300 .398   76   -11   2
—————————————————————————————————————————————————
Top Offensive Comps:  Moose Moryn, Candy Maldonado

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 21, 2007 at 05:08 AM | 16 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: December 21, 2007 at 04:47 PM (#2651589)
Does this cost a draft pick? If not, a solid, if high-priced, move to increase the talent level of the team, which was short an outfielder.
Now, a "real" starting pitcher? As you can guess, I'm hardly sold on Chad Durbin. But I guess other than a RP, that's it, unless a 3B falls from the heavens.
   2. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 21, 2007 at 05:20 PM (#2651609)
Good move. Candy Maldonaldo sure brings back some memories.
   3. AROM Posted: December 21, 2007 at 05:22 PM (#2651612)
Because of Burrell, Jenkins will have to play right. For some reason his defensive range stats have been outstanding as a LF but poor as a right fielder. His arm is not quite RF caliber either, which I always though was strange. I expected more from Bret Favre's twin.
   4. AROM Posted: December 21, 2007 at 05:34 PM (#2651620)
Jenkins uzr, 03 to mid 07:

+16 LF
+0 RF

With about 1.5 full seasons in each spot.
   5. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 21, 2007 at 05:54 PM (#2651636)
"Does this cost a draft pick?"

I don't think so, no.
   6. spycake Posted: December 21, 2007 at 06:38 PM (#2651667)
Jenkins just missed the cut-off for Type B free agents, so no draft pick compensation:

48 Nick Johnson 59.333 B
49 Geoff Jenkins 58.652
   7. ColonelTom Posted: December 21, 2007 at 08:12 PM (#2651741)
Using 2005-07 splits, figuring that the "correct" half of the platoon gets 80% of the at-bats on each side, and that 35% of at-bats are against LHP (someone correct me if those percentages are off for a strict platoon), Jenkins/Werth gives you .287/.371/.470. Nothing to sneeze at.
   8. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 21, 2007 at 08:44 PM (#2651764)
Jenkins just missed the cut-off for Type B free agents, so no draft pick compensation:

48 Nick Johnson 59.333 B
49 Geoff Jenkins 58.652


Had Ned Yost played him more, he might have padded his totals giving Milwaukee compensation! More fuel for Harvey Wallbanger's fire!

Then again, I rather doubt Milwaukee would have offered arb anyway.
   9. Dan The Mediocre Posted: December 21, 2007 at 08:48 PM (#2651772)
Because of Burrell, Jenkins will have to play right. For some reason his defensive range stats have been outstanding as a LF but poor as a right fielder. His arm is not quite RF caliber either, which I always though was strange. I expected more from Bret Favre's twin.


Check what happened to other players that moved from RF to LF or LF to RF. I suspect that a large portion of that difference Jenkins shows is due to LF being a place to hide bad defenders.
   10. AROM Posted: December 21, 2007 at 09:05 PM (#2651789)
The NL especially has some bad ones. old Bonds, Dunn, Lee, Willingham, Burrell. Its their answer to DH. But I think on average Tango or MGL has shown that players do about as well in left as they do in right.
   11. TVerik, the gum-snappin' hairdresser Posted: December 21, 2007 at 09:11 PM (#2651795)
I'm mad about this. For years, I was able to get by with my Brewer friends here by naming Jenkins as a current Brewer. Now what will I say? Robin Yount?
   12. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: December 21, 2007 at 09:34 PM (#2651810)
For years, I was able to get by with my Brewer friends here by naming Jenkins as a current Brewer. Now what will I say? Robin Yount?

Try Joe Dillon, I think he's going to be on the team for a while, and most people who aren't Brewer fans don't know who he is.
   13. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 21, 2007 at 09:50 PM (#2651821)
Billy Jo Robidoux
   14. Walt Davis Posted: December 22, 2007 at 12:00 AM (#2651904)
With inflation, this is a shorter version of the Jacque Jones contract. Which suggests that (1) it is about in line with the market and (2) this will probably turn out to be a bad idea. But it certainly won't kill them.

I'm assuming ZIPS projections aren't based on an assumption of a platoon role.
   15. Voros McCracken of Pinkus Posted: December 22, 2007 at 04:15 AM (#2652042)
I won't speak for Dan, but I wouldn't think so Walt. Having done this for several years, trying to take into account platoon use and possible changes in platoon use would add an exceptionally large number of man hours to the process (in some ways quadrupling them). So I'm guessing most projections, like mine did, involve the player being used more or less as he has been used in the recent past, thereby allowing you to not have to go through the contortions of platoon splits.

When that is not the case, I'm guessing it's up to the user to try and make the necessary mental adjustments. Even platooned players get some ABs against the wrong end of the platoon split, and then there's the topic of whether playing everyday might help a guy hit better against the right end of his platoon split than if he sat in 25% of the games. It's not an easy topic to navigate statistically, because it usually involves making unsafe assumptions one way or the other.
   16. Silencio Posted: December 23, 2007 at 09:19 AM (#2652576)
I guess the new PECOTAs are gonna have platoon splits incorporated more into them. Here is an unfiltered Nate Silver post where he talks more about weighing Platoon splits. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=669

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