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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Monday, October 23, 2006

Phillies - Signed Moyer

Philadelphia Phillies - Signed P Jamie Moyer to a 2-year contract worth $10.5 million.

Moyer’s old enough that his birth certificate was written with quill and ink, but he’s been dependably decent and quite healthy the last couple of years.  While you can probably count on Moyer as much as any elderly pitcher in 2007, the fact remains that this is a signing of a pitcher for his age 44 and 45 seasons.  Pretty much any pitcher that age is going to carry a substantial risk of injury or complete collapse.  In Moyer’s case, it could be ugly - he’s a flyballer and the last time he struggled, in 2004, he allowed 44 home runs in Safeco, which isn’t a particularly conducive environment for homers.  In Philadelphia, when it gets ugly, it could get really ugly for Moyer.  If Moyer stays healthy and can keep the ball in the park, the Phillies will be happy with this deal - a league-average-ish starting pitcher can be a difference-maker in a generally mediocre league.

2007 ZiPS Projection - Jamie Moyer
W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA
13 11 32 32 201 216   96 28 52 117 4.30


Dan Szymborski Posted: October 23, 2006 at 10:12 PM | 7 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. The Ghost of Sox Fans Past Posted: October 24, 2006 at 01:20 AM (#2222679)
Two years is pushing it, but when the all the signing are done this winter, this won't look too bad by comparison. At the end of the 2007 season, the Phils might be sorry, but I'll bet Jamie won't be the worst signing of this winter, and it's likely that the contract will look OK.
   2. NBarnes Posted: October 24, 2006 at 10:38 AM (#2222918)
To the extent that this makes the Phillies less likely to make an even worse signing during the offseason (Ryan Franklin would be the precedent), this has to be considered one of the best signings of the offseason.
   3. Andere Richtingen Posted: October 24, 2006 at 02:29 PM (#2223053)
If he matches that projection, he's a bargain.
   4. Spahn Insane Posted: October 24, 2006 at 02:43 PM (#2223065)
I was thinking that projection's optimistic, given the ballpark and Moyer's age, but what do I know.
   5. PhillyBooster Posted: October 24, 2006 at 08:10 PM (#2223409)
This projection would make Moyer tied for second most wins ever by a 44 year old. I'm not seeing it.

Most Wins, Age 44 Season

Jack Quinn: 18
Tommy John: 13
Nolan Ryan: 12
Phil Niekro: 11
   6. Loren F. Posted: October 24, 2006 at 08:25 PM (#2223415)
Interesting. I don't usually think of ZiPS as optimistic, but I would've expected a projected ERA closer to 4.60/4.70 and falling short of 200 IP. Does anyone here think that batting a couple of times per start might be fatiguing for a 44-year-old?
   7. Exploring Leftist Conservatism since 2008 (ark..) Posted: November 02, 2006 at 09:32 AM (#2230123)
Does anyone here think that batting a couple of times per start might be fatiguing for a 44-year-old?

Well, only if he hits it.

I'm not seeing it either, or anything close to it. How about 112 IP, WHIP around 1.6, 24 HRs, WL of 5-7...

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