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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Thursday, November 05, 2009
Pirates - Acquired Iwamura
Pittsburgh Pirates - Acquired 2B Akinori Iwamura from the Tampa Bay Rays for P Jesse Chavez
A nifty little pickup for the Pirates here. Iwamura is a solid second baseman and fills a pretty big hole for the Pirates in return for a decent, but replaceable reliever. I think the Rays were a little too quick to trade Iwamura, but on the other hand, Japanese players have some decent leverage because of the possibility of going back to Japan and Aki may not have wanted to wait too long to see the Rays sort out the 2B surplus. Chavez is a useful reliever, as noted, but I’m not sure he’ll be one of the best 7 relievers on the team come April. He does have a good fastball, so he’s worth taking a flier one, but he still throws too many meatballs.
2010 ZiPS Projections
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Player AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG OPS+
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Iwamura 559 66 155 27 10 6 30 65 111 9 .277 .353 .394 98
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2010 ZiPS Projections
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Player W L G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
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Chavez 3 4 68 0 76.2 83 42 11 28 54 4.93 90
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Dan Szymborski
Posted: November 05, 2009 at 08:51 PM | 9 comment(s)
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1. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 06, 2009 at 11:04 PM (#3381414)I still can't figure out why you said that.
No, but the Delwyn Young-miscast-as-a-second-baseman era might be.
The quote is from this, in case anyone else was wondering.
It was a lot truer in mid-2006 than it is today.
In mid-2006 Chavez was still 2 years younger, had a better K rate at the same level in a tougher league, threw harder ("92-94 touching 96" for Chavez and "high-80s" for Rogers, both according to BA) and still had some projection in his frame.
I wouldn't ever call someone out on picking the wrong random minor league reliever, these things are a crapshoot, but there was no reason to completely dismiss Chavez out of hand while saying Rogers "had value". It was just odd.
There's a quick tipping point in minor league relievers.
It was Chavez's first year with a good strikeout rate, but he also had given up 12 home runs the year before and had a walk rate more than 50% higher than Rogers and was much easier to hit.
At the time of the trade, I had Chavez's 2006 translation at 6.41 for the season coming off an 8.41 2005 season. Rogers was converted to relief in 2005 and I have his translation at 4.45 for 2005 and 5.40 for 2006.
I would still take Rogers today. You're free to disagree. If I had a dollar for every minor league reliever with a good fastball that was easy to hit, easy to hit hard, and walked too many batters that didn't pan out, I'd be able to buy the Pirates. Chavez has improved enough that he can be a bottom-of-the-bullpen reliever on a bad team. That's hardly gloating quality.
I was hardly trying to gloat, I was just trying to understand why one was nothing but the other was marginally more than nothing to you. And you gave fair reasons, I understand now where you were coming from.. which is all I wanted to know all along.
I don't entirely agree, I'm willing to accept some amount of sudden improvement in minor league relievers given how raw they typically are and I'd go with mid-90s over high-80s as well, but you gave good reasons. Fair enough
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