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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Thursday, November 17, 2005

Pirates - Signed Bay

Pittsburgh Pirates - Signed OF Jason Bay to a 4-year contract.

MLB is reporting this as $18.25 million over 4 years with another half a million in possible bonuses.

Easy thumbs-up for the Pirates - short of catastrophic injury, the Pirates should be coming out ahead by the end of 2007.  You can’t buy goodwill in arbitration years of a player by giving them good, fair, deals, but you can certainly lose it by doing the opposite.  It’d be fun for the Pirates to sign Brian Giles, too, just to rub it in the faces of the Padres, but they’re going to spending all their new licensing and national TV dough in the remainder bin and then be confused when they finish 72-90 and don’t score any runs.  Of course, the Padres at least got Giles - the Expos got Lou Collier in return for Bay.

But it won’t be Bay’s fault.  Bay will continue to be Pittsburgh’s new Brian Giles - Bay even added the high-percentage basestealing with only average speed and faked center without falling on his face in 2005.

2006 ZiPS Projection - Jason Bay
————————————————————————————-
AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB   BA   OBP   SLG
————————————————————————————-
542 90 161 35 5 32 99 84 122 16 .297 .395 .557

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 17, 2005 at 08:09 PM | 28 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. 1k5v3L Posted: November 17, 2005 at 08:28 PM (#1735853)
He shoulda held out for Hideki Matsui money. Think of all the cash the Buccos would've made from the Canuck mania surrounding Bay...
   2. WTM Posted: November 17, 2005 at 08:28 PM (#1735854)
I'm sure this has the Cubs looking forward to 2008, when McClatchy and Nutting decide that $20M in annual profit isn't enough and decide to create financial flexibility by trading Bay for the Neifinator.
   3. Kyle S Posted: November 17, 2005 at 08:30 PM (#1735858)
It's too bad Bay is never going to earn insane dollars because he came up so late, but I'm glad to see a good player get a fair reward for his performance. Kudos, Jason.
   4. 1k5v3L Posted: November 17, 2005 at 08:33 PM (#1735865)
Nah, Bay is too white for Dusty. And too young.
   5. shoewizard Posted: November 17, 2005 at 08:40 PM (#1735875)
Great signing by the Pirates. Bay will be one of the best bargains in baseball through the end of this contract.
   6. DEF: needs food badly Posted: November 17, 2005 at 08:41 PM (#1735876)
Minor correction - the Mets got Bay for Collier (from wunderkind GM Omar Minaya, who didn't need no stiking "prospects" when he could have mediocre veterans instead), then flipped Bay for Reed and Middlebrook.
   7. Fred Garvin is dead to Mug Posted: November 17, 2005 at 08:43 PM (#1735878)
Good deal for the Pirates at a great price.
   8. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 17, 2005 at 08:52 PM (#1735899)
Corrected - me stupid.
   9. Mark S. is bored Posted: November 17, 2005 at 09:06 PM (#1735937)
Minor correction - the Mets got Bay for Collier (from wunderkind GM Omar Minaya, who didn't need no stiking "prospects" when he could have mediocre veterans instead), then flipped Bay for Reed and Middlebrook.

Collier then proceeded to have 42 ABs for Montreal, before moving onto suck in Boston and then Philly. The Mets ended up with 39 innings of relief pitching combined between their two pickups (Jason Middlebrook and Steve Reed).
   10. DEF: needs food badly Posted: November 17, 2005 at 09:13 PM (#1735958)
Dan,

no problem - just didn't want to let Minaya off the hook for one of his many stupid deals while running the Expos.
   11. DEF: needs food badly Posted: November 17, 2005 at 09:18 PM (#1735973)
Mark:

To make matters worse, the Mets were on the verge of waiving Collier before the end of spring training. Minaya was so hot for Collier that he didn't want to risk that a team with a higher waiver claim priority (Pittsburgh and Cincinatti were the only 2 teams with potentially higher claim priorities) would get Collier first. Collier sucks, gets outrighted after a few weeks with no teams making claims.
   12. 1k5v3L Posted: November 17, 2005 at 09:22 PM (#1735981)
Ah. Minaya. I can't wait for his new adventures this offseason.

I'll laugh, I'll cry, I'll get back in line.
   13. WillYoung Posted: November 17, 2005 at 09:26 PM (#1735994)
Hooray for Octagon clients!
   14. esseff Posted: November 17, 2005 at 09:41 PM (#1736023)
Being a glass-half-empty kinda guy, I got to say the Pirates missed the boat (get it?) by signing Bay only through his arb-eligible years and not into his FA years. It was their chance to get a star player locked in at a reduced price, and it seems like it would be a safe bet, or at least as safe as any 6- or 7-year contract could be.

Mebbe he'll get hit by a bus and I'll be proved wrong.
   15. Dingbat_Charlie Posted: November 17, 2005 at 10:33 PM (#1736137)
I recall a quote from a Padres exec saying that the Bucs originally asked for Nady but had to settle for Bay because Nady was a keeper. So here they are on the same day, one getting kept, the other, not.
   16. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 17, 2005 at 11:03 PM (#1736236)
Even worse, DL nearly flipped Kendall, Giles, and a wee bit of money for Nady and Jeff Cirillo, before SD's owner got cold feet about the $$ involved.

No GM gets rescued from himself as often as Littlefield.
   17. s.zielinski Posted: November 17, 2005 at 11:17 PM (#1736267)
Even worse, DL nearly flipped Kendall, Giles, and a wee bit of money for Nady and Jeff Cirillo, before SD's owner got cold feet about the $$ involved.


If my memory is working here, the $$ involved: About $18 M. I wonder if the Padres FO/owner (Moores) now has any regrets for refusing that sweet deal? Giles and Hernandez will probably leave San Diego this winter. Yet, the Padres would still have Kendall, Bay, Perez and Kotsay!

No GM gets rescued from himself as often as Littlefield.


Well, he’ll again have the opportunity to sign Burnitz this winter.
   18. Russ Posted: November 17, 2005 at 11:43 PM (#1736315)
Signing Giles would be weird for the Pirates. They have plenty of decent candidates for the outfield between Duffy, McLouth, Gerut, Mackowiak, and Craig Wilson. What they really need is a third baseman with power and a bunch of lucky charms for Castillo, the Wilsons and Bay. If those four guys can stay uninjured and hit to what I think is their potential, the offense will be all right. If Freddy Sanchez is your starting third baseman, you're in trouble. If he's your top middle infield sub/backup, you're actually doing OK.
   19. Erik (Don't Touch My Monkey) Posted: November 17, 2005 at 11:49 PM (#1736333)
It apears my hopes have been crushed... lol. I was hoping to see the Angels Bill Stoneman out there trying to swing a trade for Bay. I was willing to give up, Figgins, Rivera, Saunders and Wood to get him, but most Angel fans said my offer was nuts anyway.
   20. Russ Posted: November 17, 2005 at 11:53 PM (#1736343)
but most Angel fans said my offer was nuts anyway.

As someone pointed out, the only problem with Bay is that he's a late bloomer. Otherwise, he's a bona fide superstar, doesn't make problems in the clubhouse, and at least seems to be an all around decent fellow except for his flappy head. He's basically an improved version of Brian Giles, who was already pretty damned good already. Your deal doesn't seem all the nuts to me (in fact, I wouldn't do it if I were Littlefield... of course, that means I'm suprised that your trade didn't already happen).
   21. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 18, 2005 at 12:26 AM (#1736386)
I'd take Giles back in the OF. You can always make room for a man with a .900+ OPS.
   22. Psychedelic Red Pants Posted: November 18, 2005 at 12:52 AM (#1736422)
I have no idea how to value Wood, but Rivera/Figgins would probably have zero value for the Pirates. They're useful pieces to fill in the gaps between stars on a championship team (granted, Figgins was really good this year). If the Pirates were to trade Bay, it'd be because they didn't think they'd win in the next 4 years, so they'd want players they would control beyond then.
   23. Erik (Don't Touch My Monkey) Posted: November 18, 2005 at 01:31 AM (#1736464)
The thing about Rivera and Figgins is that they are still young and productive. I think Rivera would have no trouble hitting .300 with 20/25 homeruns if he played every day. His power and patience improved this year and he hit for average when Scioscia let him ply more than once every 4 days. He's the kind of guy that Im very surprised hasn't gotten more playing time in his career; Scoscia really messed him up this year by platooning him against his talents until the end of the year. He is easily better than Figgins, and barring any moves by the Angels he will be the everyday DH next year. Saunders is a B level pitching prospect who happens to be lefthanded. Wood is the key though, I think he has a higher ceilling than Bay does, but I would be willing to trade that to have the guy right now, and I don't see the Pirates as being a team who needs that type of guy right now.
   24. Dr. Vaux Posted: November 18, 2005 at 01:44 AM (#1736490)
Saunders seems more C-level to me; hardly worth worrying about. Two (would-be) adequate regulars and a top prospect is a hell of a lot to give up for less than a super-superstar, IMO, though.
   25. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 18, 2005 at 02:10 AM (#1736514)
B/C lefties to Pittsburgh are coals to Newcastle at this point.

Wood would make a lot of sense, on the other hand, because there are approximately zero shortstop prospects in the system (Yes, Mr. Guzman, I'm looking at you).

I still don't think I'd do the deal, but it's not an unreasonable offer.
   26. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: November 18, 2005 at 04:03 PM (#1736979)
I'd take Giles back in the OF. You can always make room for a man with a .900+ OPS.

Sure, but it's a waste of effort when you've got worse problems than OF.
   27. Bucs Fan Posted: November 18, 2005 at 04:31 PM (#1737017)
I remember the rumors about Kendall, Giles, and money for Nady and Jeff Cirillo. At the time, there was no combination of pills and alcohol that would allow me to rationalize a deal like this, and I have tremendous rationalization skills when it comes to this team.

I really, really hope these were just rumors and not truly an offer that Littlefield put on the table.

Since we're playing "if I were GM", my next move (Littlefield's) would be to figure out how to get Chad Tracy from the D-backs for a pitcher(s) not named Duke, Perez, Gonzalez, or Maholm. Anyone think that's viable?
   28. Russ Posted: November 19, 2005 at 12:57 PM (#1738376)
No, but I'd give up Perez for Tracy straight up. We're still not sure that Perez is going to be star and you still have guys lining up behind him to go into the rotation. At least one of Burnett, VanBenschoten, and Bullington is going to contribute at the ML level. With Duke, Maholm, Wells, Redman, and Dave Williams, you don't even need to juggle the rotation at all.

Tracy would change the face of the Pirate batting order. I'd consider throwing in Gonzalez as well if the Dbacks sent back another hitter too.

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