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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Monday, December 12, 2005

Pirates - Signed Hernandez

Pittsburgh Pirates - Signed P Roberto Hernandez to a 1-year contract, worth $2.75 million contract.

Once Mesa left for the Rockies, the Pirates had to quickly fill the role of “old, overpaid closer that casual fans may have heard of.”  One would hope they wouldn’t use Hernandez in a role in which his knack for giving up a spectacular home run would be most damaging, such as batting practice pitcher.  They won’t, though.  Expect to see lots of “but his ERA was 2.58 last year!” from the front office this season.

2006 ZiPS Projection - Roberto Hernandez
———————————————————————-
W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA
———————————————————————-
4   7 66   0   63   60   34   7 32 50 4.86

 

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 12, 2005 at 10:08 PM | 20 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan Posted: December 12, 2005 at 11:17 PM (#1774234)
Yeah, but if he is anywhere near last year's performance, especially ERA-wise, he could be a great guy to flip come July.

Of course, without Shea, that probably won't happen.
   2. Honkie Kong Posted: December 12, 2005 at 11:23 PM (#1774245)
Wow, is Transaction Oracle trying to take on Rosenthal?
About the actual transaction, I got nothing. Typical Pirates pointless acquisition
   3. Kyle S Posted: December 12, 2005 at 11:24 PM (#1774247)
I wish I had $2.75 million.
   4. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 12, 2005 at 11:35 PM (#1774271)
Roberto Hernandez's numbers were excellent this season but he was even better than his numbers indicate. He was the Mets' only reliable reliever this season for the first 4 months of the season. And if you take out his worst game of the season, one where he was working for his 4th straight game and clearly had no business pitching, his ERA decreases to 1.97. He held hitters to a .637 OPS this season and that number falls to .597 not including the aforementioned game. He's still got a 95 MPH fastball and his stuff is still very good. I wouldn't be surprised to see him have a solid season next year. I'm kind of surprised that Minaya didn't re-sign him.
   5. Honkie Kong Posted: December 12, 2005 at 11:39 PM (#1774277)
Umm, how about the two years before last year? And he wasn't carrying any known injury.
Why should you predict his next year's numbers based just on this outlier year? If asked to take a shot, I would say this year was a swansong career year for Roberto..
   6. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 12, 2005 at 11:50 PM (#1774302)
I know ERA+ isn't a great way to measure relievers but Hernandez does have a career ERA+ of 136 and he really hasn't lost much of his stuff. I was amazed by this guy's ability to throw 95 consistently day after day. I'm not guaranteeing that he will be good next season. I wouldn't be surprised if he was though.
   7. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 12, 2005 at 11:57 PM (#1774321)
The reason why I mentioned his career ERA+ was because I don't know why we should only look at 2003 and 2004. If you include 2002 and 2001, last year was the third season in the last five that he's posted an ERA+ better than 118. And he's only been below average three times in his entire career.
   8. Honkie Kong Posted: December 13, 2005 at 12:04 AM (#1774331)
Hey, I usually like what you have to say, but I have to diagree with you on this.
ERA+ for last 5 years : 118, 119, 91, 96, 162(!)
roughly averaging 60ip for each of those years. If I just had this data, I would say he would pitch around 60 ip at 115 ERA+, which is low for a reliever..
Ofcourse his K rate went up big time last year, and his walk rate went down too. Can this be attributed to Shea?
   9. Greg Schuler Posted: December 13, 2005 at 01:32 AM (#1774510)
Yeah, but if he is anywhere near last year's performance, especially ERA-wise, he could be a great guy to flip come July.

This is something the Pirates under Dave Littlefield have consistently failed to do. They kept Sanders and Stairs in 2003, failed to move Mesa in 2004 and allowed Mark Redman to come back to earth and then couldn't trade him.

The odds are Hernandez, if he pitches well, will stay the whole year in Pittsburgh and will pitch as a closer.
   10. I Love LA (OFF) Posted: December 13, 2005 at 01:52 AM (#1774534)
The question is, will Pirate fans drink the kool-aid?
   11. Greg Schuler Posted: December 13, 2005 at 07:41 PM (#1775531)
The question is, will Pirate fans drink the kool-aid?

Yes - a lot of casual fans were hooked with the Sean Casey trade (remember, he's from Upper St. Claire) and aRoberto Hernandez is a player name they have heard before. And if they bother to look at his stats from last year, they'll see some decent numbers. And if the Pirates sign Bill Mueller, so much the better.

It is pretty evident that Jim Tracy and his winning ways (direct from LA) are running the show in Pittsburgh.
   12. Russ Posted: December 14, 2005 at 02:41 PM (#1776648)
It has been an been an absolutely brutal year in Pittsburgh sports... if the Steelers miss the playoffs, Pittsburgh sports fans will do a lot more than drink the Kool-Aid.

a) Steelers lose to Patriots in AFCC after great regular season
b) Pitt basketball self-destructs, knocked out early in NCAA
c) David L.'s Pirates "take the field"
d) Pitt football begins Dave W. era by going backwards from the previous year
e) JoePa revives PSU
f) Penguins win draft lottery, but look like they may move away
g) Steelers on verge of missing the playoffs
h) Mario Lemieux has heart problems
i) David Littlefield continues the drive for 75

Goddam... are they going to find out next that Roger Kingdom was on dope? Sidney Crosby tears an ACL and is out for the season? Aaron Gray comes back to earth?

What a nightmare...
   13. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 14, 2005 at 04:07 PM (#1776744)
2006 Pittsburgh sports events to anticipate:

1) Bruno Sammartino has a stroke.
2) Someone desecrates Billy Conn's grave.
3) McClatchy rolls around in All-Star gate receipts, Scrooge McDuck-style.
   14. Kyle S Posted: December 14, 2005 at 04:12 PM (#1776758)
Do you guys think the Pens will really move away? That speech by Lemieux seemed to me like hardball negotiating tactics rather than a genuine belief that they would move.

How's the Igloo for hockey these days? I've heard the tickets are mostly sold out, but is it a good venue? Say what you will about the new arenas (Phillips in Atl, e.g.) they are great places to watch hockey.
   15. Russ Posted: December 16, 2005 at 09:08 PM (#1780620)
How's the Igloo for hockey these days? I've heard the tickets are mostly sold out, but is it a good venue?

Depends on what you mean by "good". It's old, deteriorating, the seats are uncomfortable, and it just feels very, very old. There is very little charm and there are some truly infuriatingly bad seats in the back of the E and F-balconies (and up in the nooks and crannies of the C-sections). And it can get pretty damn cold in the winter and I wouldn't trust the handrails leading down from the upper sections.

However, I still say that front of E balcony and front of F balcony are the absolutely most amazing places I've ever been able to watch hockey. They aren't allowed to build arenas like the Igloo anymore (very steep incline in the F-section) and because of the luxury box mania (and the number of lower level seats with bad views) you don't get the overhanging sections in the newer arenas. You feel like you could spit a loogy down on Martin Brodeur from the front of E-balcony and the F-corner seating is really nice in the same way. You feel like you're sitting directly over top of the ice and that's just a very difficult feeling to get in the new arenas.

The biggest problems with the Igloo are the lack of luxury boxes and the completely unchangeable nature of the structure. Just the way that it's constructed would make it impossible to renovate in any sort of intelligent way.
   16. Russ Posted: December 16, 2005 at 09:09 PM (#1780622)
Do you guys think the Pens will really move away?

Yes, I do (unless there's some sort of Xmas miracle and the state government gives the Pens owners the slots license it needs to get additional investors).
   17. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 16, 2005 at 09:19 PM (#1780639)
That's one easy way to tell whether a franchise is legitimately in trouble: If they've declared bankruptcy twice, they probably aren't pulling your chain.
   18. Dewey, Soupuss Not Doomed to Succeed Posted: December 16, 2005 at 09:22 PM (#1780648)
Where would the Penguins go? Are there any cities clamoring for NHL teams right now?
   19. John M. Perkins Posted: December 16, 2005 at 09:25 PM (#1780659)
OKC wants and can support hockey.
TV market is the only drawback.
   20. Russ Posted: December 16, 2005 at 10:00 PM (#1780726)
The Canadian people are always clamoring for a team in Winnipeg or Quebec City. The QC angle would be very interesting for the Pens, with Lemieux, Fleury, Crosby, etc. It's the only place that I'll be able to support, as it would mean that I'd get to see the team a hell of a lot more often than I do right now. I could easily go up to QC 10-15 times a year.

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