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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Tuesday, December 20, 2005

Rangers - Acquired Eaton

Texas Rangers - Acquired P Adam Eaton and P Akinori Ohtsuka and an unnamed prospect from the San Diego Padres for 1B Adrian Gonzalez, P Chris Young, and OF Termel Sledge.

Well, the Ranger front office gave away all the newfound-love they acquired last week in the clever Soriano for Wilkerson-Sledge swap.  My best guess?  The Rangers totally got Adam Eaton and Jake Peavy confused, thinking that they’re landing the guy that finished in the top 10 in ERA the last two seasons and has 3 years until free agency rather than Eaton, who has put up a better-than-league-average ERA+ once in his career, during his 22-start rookie campaign.  Chris Young, despite wearing down the second half of the season, had a better year than Eaton has ever had in the majors.  And he won’t be a free agent until the winter of 2010.

In return for this downgrade in value (even if we call them equal in ability or call Eaton a bit superior, Young’s cheaper for a long time and under team control), they trade a good, though not top-notch, 1B prospect and throw in a suitable starting outfielder/4th outfielder for the Pads bench.  No doubt people will cry SALARY DUMP!!!! but if you can dump salary and get better, where’s the downside?  Yes, Ohtsuka is a very valuable reliever and probably the more valuable commodity the Padres are giving up, but this is a lot of talent to send out of the system.

Thumbs up for the Padres, making up somewhat for the Mirabelli-Loretta debacle.  As an entertaining side dish to this trade, due to the extreme park differences between Chase and Petco, everyone in this trade except Chris Young will look a good bit worse than they are.

2006 ZiPS Projections
———————————————————————————————————
Player     AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB   BA   OBP   SLG
———————————————————————————————————
Gonzalez   470 54 124 22 2 16 56 35 78   1 .264 .318 .421
Sledge     351 31   86 16 5 11 47 37 60   2 .245 .316 .413

 

2006 ZiPS Projections
——————————————————————————————-
Player       W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA
——————————————————————————————-
Eaton       10 10 29 28 170 184   92 26 50 119 4.87
Otsuka       6   4 69   0   69   63   31   5 30 62 4.04
Young       9   9 29 29 148 134   65 15 47 135 3.95

 

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 20, 2005 at 09:26 PM | 37 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. robinred Posted: December 20, 2005 at 10:08 PM (#1786927)
I think this seems pretty good for the Padres, but I don't think the move will be popular here initially, particularly after the local media find out that Sledge once tested positive for steroids. Otsuka ("Aki") and Eaton are both pretty well-liked by the fan base and the media.

As for Texas, they don't really need Sledge and Gonzalez, but I think they would have been better served by keeping Young and flipping Sledge + Gonzalez or some such package for one pitcher to build up rotation depth.
   2. robinred Posted: December 20, 2005 at 10:09 PM (#1786931)
The Dodgers have signed Lofton. Coletti's Sabeanization of the Dodgers continues.
   3. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: December 20, 2005 at 10:23 PM (#1786965)
Good job by Towers. This trade has the potential to make Jon Daniels look more Cam Bonifay than Theo Epstein...
   4. Jim Wisinski Posted: December 20, 2005 at 10:24 PM (#1786966)
According to ESPN the prospect is Billy Killian.

I don't get this trade for the Rangers at all. Seems like they're getting worse (and acquiring an injury risk in Eaton) while giving up good trading chips.
   5. Pregnant women are Mug Posted: December 20, 2005 at 10:25 PM (#1786970)
The Rangers totally got Adam Eaton and Jake Peavy confused

I can't blame them, considering the kajillion times I've done this.
   6. AROM Posted: December 20, 2005 at 10:29 PM (#1786983)
Young immediately jumps to the top of the list for fantasy sleepers.

In that park he's likely to have a bunch of game scores that make cpmlete sense listed next to the name "Young, C"
   7. 1k5v3L Posted: December 20, 2005 at 10:31 PM (#1786988)
due to the extreme park differences between Chase and Petco, everyone in this trade except Chris Young will look a good bit worse than they are.

I sure hope Chris Young looks good at Chase. That's why the Dbacks acquired him in the Javy deal. And his defense alone at Petco would make him worth having.

I'm disappointed. The Padres got quite a bit better here. And cheaper. Not what I would've liked to see. As if the Redsoxification of the Dodgers wasn't enough...
   8. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 20, 2005 at 10:42 PM (#1787018)
"I can't blame them, considering the kajillion times I've done this."

Could be worse, Dan. Once in a while, I still confuse Jake Peavy and Mike Bynum.
   9. 1k5v3L Posted: December 20, 2005 at 10:44 PM (#1787022)
I once confused Jake Peavy with Jake DelHomme.
   10. Cowboy Popup Posted: December 20, 2005 at 10:56 PM (#1787073)
Maybe the Rangers think that they've figured out how to make Eaton consistent and not one of the most frustratingly incosistent pitchers (perhaps the Kevin Towers of pitchers) on the face of the planet.

I still can't believe they traded Mark ####### Loretta. Why the hell would you do that?
   11. stealfirstbase Posted: December 20, 2005 at 11:01 PM (#1787085)
I remember in a fantasy draft two years ago when I was running a team with my dad, I confused Mark Loretta and Mark DeRosa, much to my eternal shame. In case you're wondering, I got DeRosa thinking he was Loretta. Not fun.

Almost as embarassing as the time that Albert Pujols was only 3B eligible, and the league wouldn't let my dad and his co-owner put him in the outfield, so they couldn't bid on him. They had money left on the table, and could have had Pujols for his rookie year--and still have him locked up today.

Or the time we traded Dontrelle Willis for Marlon Byrd.

Or when I thought 2005 was Corey Patterson's bust out year.

*sigh*

Oddly enough, the team has won the league in 2 out of 5 years, and finished in the money one other time. Back when Vlad was in the NL, we rode him to victory two years in a row.
   12. 1k5v3L Posted: December 20, 2005 at 11:06 PM (#1787098)
The Padres think they can get Loretta back?
   13. PJ Martinez Posted: December 20, 2005 at 11:07 PM (#1787101)
What a weird role reversal: Towers, he of "Mirabelli for Loretta," utterly betters Daniels, i.e., "Soriano for Wilkerson +." Weird.
   14. Pregnant women are Mug Posted: December 20, 2005 at 11:18 PM (#1787134)
I used to always confuse Freddy Garcia and Frank Rodriguez when they were on the 2000 Mariners.
   15. The Answer to the TWolves (GMoney) Posted: December 20, 2005 at 11:24 PM (#1787150)
Looking like I'll be adding Chris Young and Dave Bush to my NL only pitching staff of Prior, Hudson, Capuano, Patterson, Turnbow, and Mike Gonzalez for next year. To go along with Matt Cain, Anthony Reyes and possibly Travis Bowyer or Yusmeiro Petit. Plenty of money to spend on bats. And damn I lose Chris YOung and gain Adam Eaton or Otsuka for 2 bucks in my AL only league.
   16. alio intuito Posted: December 20, 2005 at 11:28 PM (#1787165)
Man this sucks three different ways; I've Otsuka on three different DMB teams and he figures to do worse pitching in Texas (not that his 2005 season was anything to brag about), I've got Eaton on one DMB team (ditto), and I have Gonzalez on my roto team next year, essentially for free if I want to keep him. Even if he does get to play full time, moving to Petco will likely make him not worth keeping. When are these GM's going to learn to take everything into consideration before making these deals.
   17. rory_b_bellows Posted: December 20, 2005 at 11:34 PM (#1787176)
On Rotoworld they are floating the rumor that Gonzalez might be traded to the Red Sox for David Wells as the Red Sox have been known to be enamoured of Gonzalez (plus they have a major hole at first). Not exactly sure how Sledge fits into the Padres as they have a complete outfield: Roberts/Ben Johnson, Cameron, Giles. I think Sledge is too good to sit on the bench and get a few at-bats a week. Maybe another trade to fill the hole at second?
   18. robinred Posted: December 20, 2005 at 11:58 PM (#1787207)
Looking like I'll be adding Chris Young and Dave Bush to my NL only pitching staff of Prior, Hudson, Capuano, Patterson, Turnbow, and Mike Gonzalez for next year. To go along with Matt Cain, Anthony Reyes and possibly Travis Bowyer or Yusmeiro Petit. Plenty of money to spend on bats. And damn I lose Chris YOung and gain Adam Eaton or Otsuka for 2 bucks in my AL only league

Roto is sort of like high-school sports now. I have never met anyone who admits to having been/being a crappy high school athlete or having/having had a crappy roto team. I guess if you finish 9th in your roto league every year you don't talk about it.

Not that I'm saying this isn't your actual pitching staff--I'm just pointing out the general phenomenon.
   19. danielj Posted: December 20, 2005 at 11:59 PM (#1787208)
I think Sledge is too good to sit on the bench and get a few at-bats a week. Maybe another trade to fill the hole at second?

Obvious. They'll trade back to Washington for Soriano.
   20. yb125 Posted: December 21, 2005 at 12:14 AM (#1787227)
I was pretty against the idea of trading Eaton to Texas, but I never thought they could get Chris Young back, sure I'll miss Aki, but they help the bench don't create a hole in the rotation and get someone to take over at 1st next year. However if KT turns around and trades Gonzalez for Wells I'll go back to being pissed at him.
   21. mr. man Posted: December 21, 2005 at 12:30 AM (#1787264)
keep in mind robinred that the people finishing 9th in our leagues don't spend time during the offseason poring over transactions like we do.
   22. Dr. Vaux Posted: December 21, 2005 at 12:44 AM (#1787271)
Well, if they trade Gonzalaez for Wells they become '06 division favorites, but then again, winning that division is sort of like winning a nuclear war.
   23. The Polish Sausage Racer Posted: December 21, 2005 at 12:49 AM (#1787275)
I've finished 7 out of 10 the last two years in my roto league. I am teh suck.

But even I wouldn't have made this trade. The Rangers are dopes.
   24. Snowboy Posted: December 21, 2005 at 12:54 AM (#1787278)
What a filthy trade by the Padres. Towers should be really proud of himself, and the fans can smile.

I like Dan's theory that the Rangers thought they were getting Jake Peavy. Extreme groundballer, three years to free agency...for Young...hmm, you could see someone taking that chance in Texas. But for Adam Eaton? Young is better than Eaton right now, and cheaper. This makes the Rangers rotation worse this year, and the next.

I should be up front about Adrian Gonzalez and Terrmel Sledge: I like them both a lot, and think they can be starters. They are also both surplus in Texas, and had to be traded. So good for Daniels to do that, rather than let them regress in AAA or on the bench. The Padres should go with Klesko in LF again, Giles in RF, and Cameron in CF, and give Gonzalez the 1B job. Trade Dave Roberts, which we all expect them to do, to either the Yankees or Red Sox. I like Gonzalez more than Ben Johnson.

Otsuka is a good pitcher. I think his debut was an abberation though, so Texas should expect more of 2005 than 2004. No one can sustain a 1.75 ERA. So look for a K/9 of 9, and he keeps the ball down. A good acquisition, but guys like this can be found if you look. (Looking at Benoit on your own roster would be a good place to start. I think he could post similar numbers as a setup man. But they can't seem to decide what to do with him, and given how thin this rotation is looking, they might through him back out as a starter, which I think is a mistake.)

So they get an A-list reliever, and do not improve their rotation situation, for Gonzalez, Sledge, and losing Young. I know the Rangers probably "owe" the Padres a favour, for taking Chan-Ho off their hands, but this is a bad trade. I want to give a new guy some time, not judge him right away. But it's getting harder and harder to refrain from heckling Jon Daniels. He's crossed the line into buffoon territory now.
   25. JimL Posted: December 21, 2005 at 01:30 AM (#1787315)
'I have never met anyone who admits to having been/being a crappy high school athlete or having/having had a crappy roto team. '

I was a pretty crappy high school athlete. It's not as shameful when you go to a huge highschool though.

I've also had bad roto teams... I'm in a 10 team AL only league with 40 man rosters (29 active). We've had the same owners since 1994 and they all know what they are doing, so someone has to finish 10th... (I finished 9th this year in full rebuild mode).
   26. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: December 21, 2005 at 01:43 AM (#1787340)
Oh, no the Padres actually made a good move. This is not good fo rthe Dodgers
   27. this space for rent Posted: December 21, 2005 at 01:55 AM (#1787358)
Man this sucks three different ways; I've Otsuka on three different DMB teams and he figures to do worse pitching in Texas (not that his 2005 season was anything to brag about), I've got Eaton on one DMB team (ditto), and I have Gonzalez on my roto team next year, essentially for free if I want to keep him.

Well, DMB accounts for park effects, so it's not as if the trade makes a difference there. May impact trade values if the other owners don't take those into account, however.

So do Gonzalez or Sledge have a shot at a starting job? I thought Klesko was moving to 1B, which should open up a spot in the outfield for someone, either Sledge or Ben Johnson. Is that the latest plan?

Poor Terrmel Sledge. Goes from a lousy hitter's park to a great hitter's park and then right back to an even worse hitter's park than he started in.
   28. rory_b_bellows Posted: December 21, 2005 at 02:01 AM (#1787368)
I think that Otsuka was really the key to this deal for the Rangers. Eaton has tantalized people for years with his stuff but his numbers never seemed to matchup with his potential -- 4.27, 4.61, 4.08 ERAs the last 3 years with a 4.10/4.57 home/road splits.

If you've seen Otsuka pitch you know that he has a "trick" delivery which I think that baseball people feel will become less effective as batters see him more. His stats over the last two years seem to bear this out as his ERA rose from 1.75 to 3.59 last year. His walks rose and his strikeouts declined. This seems to reinforce this but his numbers were destroyed by some atrocious pitching in Arizona (1.1IP, 11R, 5BB, 0-4 Record!).
   29. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: December 21, 2005 at 03:18 AM (#1787485)
Well my brother who is a pretty big (and knowledgable) padres fan isn't as happy as the rest of you are. But I suspect he is remembering the Adam Easton who pitched in the first half of 2005.

Me? I don't really know what purpose Sledge plays (could he be traded again? Or will Roberts be traded?) and I am not sure what he offers that Ben Johnson does not. I also think that Otsuka is a damn fine relivier.

Still, I am a fan of Gonzalez, I think he will have a really good next six year and Young looks to be as good as Eaton while being younger, cheaper (Eaton wanted 3 yrs. $27 mil), and healthier.

Anyone know how good this prospect is? A 19 year old catcher seems like a real wild card, kinda like an A-ball arm and the Pads already have the next Posada (at least to me) in George Kottaras.
   30. Balerion Posted: December 21, 2005 at 03:20 AM (#1787489)
I'm surprised no one has mentioned Otsuka's home/road splits in 2005:

Home: 36.2 IP, 20 H, 39/15 K/BB, 1.23 ERA
Road: 26.0 IP, 35 H, 21/19 K/BB, 6.92 ERA


Needless to say, this does not bode well for Otsuka's performance in Texas.
   31. Pat Rapper's Delight Posted: December 21, 2005 at 03:24 AM (#1787493)
Anyone know how good this prospect is?

Organization filler. Career AVG/OBP/SLG line of .218/.290/.291, mostly at the Rookie League level. Only played 14 games last year. Maybe Killian retired at the end of May and Daniels doesn't realize it?
   32. FBI Posted: December 21, 2005 at 03:48 AM (#1787520)
The Padres bullpen has gotten rather thin
Especially with Hoffman being rather injury prone
Any ideas who might fill in?
   33. Who Swished In Your Cornflakes? Posted: December 21, 2005 at 04:02 AM (#1787541)
I think this is a better deal for the Padres. The most exciting name in the deal for me is Chris Young. I snagged him off the wire in my fantasy league last season, and he was a steal--for a while. Then he wore down from pitching so much and blew up down the stretch. I don't know much about pitchers and conditioning, but shouldn't there maybe be a hint of caution on Young's 'breakout' 2006 in San Diego? I like the odds of him pulling it off; I'm just concerned he might have trouble rebounding from being worn out last season.
   34. Snowboy Posted: December 21, 2005 at 04:07 AM (#1787543)
Killian also played 32 games in Arizona Rookie League 2005.
115AB...287/300/391/691...28K/3BB
   35. alio intuito Posted: December 21, 2005 at 05:17 AM (#1787652)
Any ideas who might fill in?

Scott Linebrink for one
linky who has probably been the Padres' best reliever over the past two seasons.
   36. Chris Pummer Posted: December 21, 2005 at 08:55 AM (#1787855)
I could see Tony G and David Wells to the Padres for Gonzalez and Roberts.
   37. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 21, 2005 at 02:56 PM (#1787957)
Killian is a decent prospect, but needs a lot of work. BA had him in the Pads top 30 last year, somewhere in the middle of the list, iirc. He's been compared to a young Jason Kendall.

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