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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Monday, December 25, 2006

Rangers - Acquired McCarthy

Texas Rangers - Acquired P Brandon McCarthy and OF David Paisano from the Chicago White Sox for P John Danks, P Nick Masset, and P Jacob Rasner.

Quite a gutsy move by Kenny Williams, trading the young pitcher that was guaranteed the #5 spot in the rotation.  While I don’t think McCarthy was very well suited to such a homer-prone park, I’m not sure if this was the best move for him.  You already have 4 pretty durable starters - why not try to shore up the outfield a bit?

Despite a lot of press, he definitely needs another full year at AAA - honestly, I think that Thomas Diamond is more ready than Danks is.  Masset, however, I believe will beat the projection below and be a solid reliever pretty soon.  He’s got a nice sinker and will have a nice White Sox defense behind him, a good combination for a big step forward.

McCarthy probably isn’t terribly well-suited to Texas, either - he’ll still allow a lot of home runs there.  He could really come into his own in a bigger stadium, getting a bigger-than-usual boost from somewhere like Petco.  Maybe the Padres can steal another young pitcher from the Rangers for magic beans after 2007?

Paisano and Rasner are both a long ways off.  Paisano looks now that he might be a leadoff-type, but he just turned 19 and hasn’t played above the Venezuelan Summer League yet. 

2007 ZiPS Projections
——————————————————————————————-
Player     W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA
——————————————————————————————-
Danks     7 15 32 31 176 205 123 43 68 127 6.29
Masset     8 10 39 23 168 186   99 24 69 112 5.30
McCarthy   7   8 40 17 143 145   76 25 38 118 4.78
——————————————————————————————-

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 25, 2006 at 01:37 AM | 29 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Dewey, Soupuss Not Doomed to Succeed Posted: December 25, 2006 at 04:00 AM (#2268279)
You already have 4 pretty durable starters - why not try to shore up the outfield a bit?

This move doesn't necessarily preclude that.
   2. Kyle S Posted: December 25, 2006 at 04:11 AM (#2268282)
That's a pretty damn high projected ERA for Danks. Wow. I'll take the under on HR/IP, too.
   3. 8ball Posted: December 25, 2006 at 09:08 AM (#2268375)
What would McCarthy's ZiPS projection be as a full-time starter?
   4. Darren Posted: December 25, 2006 at 04:06 PM (#2268401)
Danks at age 21 looks a lot to me like McCarthy at age 22--doing some good stuff in the upper minors but giving up too many HRs. I still don't think McCarthy's anything very special, but as Dan points out above, he's a decent #5 for Chicago, which is now a hole. I guess they're thinking that at least one of their young project arms is ready to go for 07.
   5. HowardMegdal Posted: December 25, 2006 at 05:42 PM (#2268432)
"You already have 4 pretty durable starters - why not try to shore up the outfield a bit?

This move doesn't necessarily preclude that."

It does preclude Chicago trading McCarthy for outfield help, right?
   6. Dewey, Soupuss Not Doomed to Succeed Posted: December 25, 2006 at 05:52 PM (#2268437)
It does preclude Chicago trading McCarthy for outfield help, right?

But Danks is tradeable, as is Gio Gonzalez, Gavin Floyd, and Nick Masset.

What the White Sox need is an outfielder who can play a quality centerfield and hit at an above-league-average level. It didn't seem that anyone who had someone like that would have given him up for Brandon McCarthy, and Kenny Williams wasn't about to trade him for some castoff fourth outfielder just to fill a perceived hole.

Instead, the Rangers offered him what he saw as an upgrade, and he took it.
   7. HowardMegdal Posted: December 25, 2006 at 05:57 PM (#2268439)
"What the White Sox need is an outfielder who can play a quality centerfield and hit at an above-league-average level. It didn't seem that anyone who had someone like that would have given him up for Brandon McCarthy, and Kenny Williams wasn't about to trade him for some castoff fourth outfielder just to fill a perceived hole."

Just curious- would you have traded McCarthy for Lastings Milledge? That seems like a pretty perfect fit for both teams. McCarthy's HR problems would be mitigated by Shea, while Milledge could step right in and play CF for the Sox...
   8. Dewey, Soupuss Not Doomed to Succeed Posted: December 25, 2006 at 06:12 PM (#2268444)
would you have traded McCarthy for Lastings Milledge?

I'd strongly consider it, but I'm not sure that Kenny Williams would want to go into the season with a rookie centerfielder again, and I'm not even sure that Omar Minaya would go for that.
   9. ian Posted: December 25, 2006 at 06:15 PM (#2268445)
When did the White Sox fill their hole in LF?
   10. Toolsy McClutch Posted: December 25, 2006 at 06:27 PM (#2268448)
I guess I like BM more than most, so I see this as a perplexing move. With only 1 year of age difference between he and Danks, it's even more confusing.

Maybe he called Kenny a pimp? Or maybe he's injured and Kenny is hoping to pull another fast one. Kenny!
   11. Dewey, Soupuss Not Doomed to Succeed Posted: December 25, 2006 at 06:41 PM (#2268449)
When did the White Sox fill their hole in LF?

The same thing applies - the White Sox need a multi-dimensional outfielder. Sure, Williams could probably have gotten, say, Adam Dunn for McCarthy, but is that really a better return than Danks and Masset? And that still only solves one-half of the equation, as they still need someone who can play good outfield defense in that case.
   12. ian Posted: December 25, 2006 at 07:19 PM (#2268454)
The same thing applies - the White Sox need a multi-dimensional outfielder.

I don't see why in order to improve LF they need a multi-dimensional player. It doesn't take an All-Star to (significantly) better Scotty Pods. Adam Dunn would be a much better overall package than he is, but even if you grant the multi-dimensional stuff, a guy like Craig Monroe would seem easy enough to get. Not literally Monroe, but players of his sort for LF are not so rare.
   13. Dewey, Soupuss Not Doomed to Succeed Posted: December 25, 2006 at 07:35 PM (#2268456)
Not literally Monroe, but players of his sort for LF are not so rare.

Maybe not, but I haven't seen a player even rumored to be on the block that has that sort of skillset. I'm sure Williams did his due diligence and asked around after outfielders that he liked.
   14. J. Michael Neal Posted: December 25, 2006 at 11:20 PM (#2268553)
Maybe not, but I haven't seen a player even rumored to be on the block that has that sort of skillset.

I would bet that Craig Monroe himself is available, or Marcus Thames. I just don't think that there is a fit between Detroit and Chicago.
   15. Dewey, Soupuss Not Doomed to Succeed Posted: December 25, 2006 at 11:34 PM (#2268559)
I would bet that Craig Monroe himself is available, or Marcus Thames. I just don't think that there is a fit between Detroit and Chicago.

Not only that, but Kenny Williams probably got a better package than either Monroe or Thames for McCarthy. If Dombrowski had traded either Monroe or Thames for Danks and Masset, everyone here would be crowing about how much of a genius he was.
   16. Don Guillote (The Cheat) Posted: December 25, 2006 at 11:51 PM (#2268574)
I don't see why in order to improve LF they need a multi-dimensional player.

I think what JRE is trying to say is the Sox need a LFer with more than one tool. And because Anderson is far from a sure thing to be a major league CFer, it the new LFer should also be able to play CF.
   17. Raskolnikov Posted: December 25, 2006 at 11:58 PM (#2268580)

Not only that, but Kenny Williams probably got a better package than either Monroe or Thames for McCarthy. If Dombrowski had traded either Monroe or Thames for Danks and Masset, everyone here would be crowing about how much of a genius he was.


Maybe, but good trade analysis should evaluate the context at the time and the teams' needs. Net overall talent value in exchange is always the best measure of a trade, but other factors such as "did the team address a need or did the team trade from a position of oversupply?" also factor in.
   18. Dewey, Soupuss Not Doomed to Succeed Posted: December 26, 2006 at 12:33 AM (#2268597)
other factors such as "did the team address a need or did the team trade from a position of oversupply?" also factor in.

Sure, but let's wait until April before we decide that Williams has left glaring holes in the team. As it stands, I don't believe in making suboptimal trades just to fill a perceived need unless it's absolutely necessary, and no trade is necessary in December.
   19. Dewey, Soupuss Not Doomed to Succeed Posted: December 26, 2006 at 12:38 AM (#2268600)
I think what JRE is trying to say is the Sox need a LFer with more than one tool. And because Anderson is far from a sure thing to be a major league CFer, it the new LFer should also be able to play CF.

Exactly. Bringing in a one-dimensional outfielder solves one problem. Bringing in a multi-dimensional outfielder solves multiple problems.

And I still think that, between Sweeney, Owens, and Anderson, there's at least one player capable of filling a hole, either in center or in left. Really, I think the Sox are one good outfielder away from being ready to go for 2007. But this is something that doesn't need to be resolved right this second, and again, I don't want to see a suboptimal trade (say, for Jacque Jones) just to put a band-aid over a hole.
   20. Gaelan Posted: December 26, 2006 at 04:17 AM (#2268707)
Alex Rios.
   21. Shalimar Posted: December 26, 2006 at 05:22 AM (#2268733)
When did the White Sox fill their hole in LF?

When did Williams realize the White Sox have a hole in LF to fill? Realization necessarily comes before fulfillment.
   22. Dewey, Soupuss Not Doomed to Succeed Posted: December 26, 2006 at 05:53 PM (#2268832)
When did Williams realize the White Sox have a hole in LF to fill?

Last season. Podsednik got less and less playing time as the season went on. I was shocked that they brought back Podsednik at all, but he's got to be on a very short leash, if he's with the team at all come April.
   23. johnny_mostil Posted: December 26, 2006 at 07:48 PM (#2268869)
You have to be very careful in evaluating minor league pitching statistics; they're like spring training. ZiPS and PECOTA just don't know that Danks was supposedly over-featuring his changeup in a developmental move last season, especially early on in his stints in Frisco and Oklahoma. His home run rate was horrendous in April, virtually nil in June, soared back up after his promotion, and then settled back down. This would be consistent with the rumor that the Rangers weren't exactly telling him to bear down and just get everybody out.

Apparently, at least according to himself, Brandon McCarthy neglected to work on his changeup in the minors, just mowing people down with the yakker. Of course, McCarthy was a scrounge-round draft pick trying to distinguish himself, Danks a top-ten "Can't Miss" being groomed.

Rangers fans should be very worried with McCarthy. His official excuse for being awful much of last year was he couldn't adjust to the bullpen. That makes me really skeptical as middle relief is usually regarded as being easier than starting -- I can't think of a relief pitcher being moved to starter on a team to get out of his funk, even on a hopeless losing team. Now he's moving to a park where every half-hit fly to right is a four-bagger; how long will it be before he's just nibbling at the outside corner with junk to try to survibe?
   24. My guest will be Jermaine Allensworth Posted: December 26, 2006 at 08:21 PM (#2268881)
Alex Rios.

Was he for real in 2006, or at least before the staph infection? He'd be a near-perfect fit if that were the case.
   25. My guest will be Jermaine Allensworth Posted: December 26, 2006 at 08:26 PM (#2268885)
McCarthy didn't really fail in middle relief though -- his worst appearances came in late-inning situations. He didn't look comfortable in situations where one pitch could end the ballgame, and it turned him into a two-pitch pitcher if he couldn't get a feel for his change right away.

When he had some time to get settled, whether starting or in long relief, he was capable at the very least. I'm optimistic about McCarthy. He gives up homers, but he had the lowest WHIP on the Sox staff for most of the year.
   26. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: December 27, 2006 at 12:05 PM (#2269244)
"That makes me really skeptical as middle relief is usually regarded as being easier than starting"

In general this is true - individually there are plenty of exceptions. Plenty of guys are better every 5th day in a routine than when they don't know if they are going to pitch or not on any given day.
   27. Up2Drew Posted: December 27, 2006 at 06:09 PM (#2269393)
Brandon McCarthy was kinda sorta in the White Sox starting rotation in 2006.

He was basically pencilled into the fourth inning for every Buehrle start.
   28. VG Posted: December 27, 2006 at 06:27 PM (#2269406)
Brandon McCarthy was kinda sorta in the White Sox starting rotation in 2006.

He was basically pencilled into the fourth inning for every Buehrle start.


If only Guillén ever had a quick hook...
   29. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 29, 2006 at 05:50 AM (#2270665)
Texas signed C Guillermo Quiroz to a big league contract, as well as Mike Wood and Willie Eyre to minor league deals.

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