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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Thursday, July 31, 2008

Rays - May or May Not Have Acquired Bay

Tampa Bay [Deleted] Rays - Acquired LF Jason Bay from the Pittsburgh Pirates for SS Reid Brignac and P Jeff Niemann

Instead of doing some wacky 7-team trade involving 38 B-prospects, Manny Ramirez, and Ned Colletti begging to get involved, the Rays do the classic trade and swoop in under the Red Sox to pick up Bay.

Losing Brignac does hurt the Rays, but his bat wasn’t quite there yet and the Rays are in a pennant race for the first time in their history and really need a very good bat to help hold off the Sox and Yankees.  Bay’s bounced back to 2006-style and is signed very reasonably for 2009 ($7.5 million) and there’s just no way the Rays were going to get him without giving up somebody.  What makes this a good trade for the Rays is that they only had to give up a single Somebody.  No offense to Jeff Niemann, who should prove useful to the Pirates, but the Rays have a good rotation now and David Price, Wade Davis, and Jacob McGee coming and no doubt all ahead of Niemann in the pecking order.

The Pirates, while they give up a really good outfielder, address two short-term and long-term problems for the team - the lack of up-and-coming infielders and starting pitchers that don’t stink.  They got what they needed for Bay.  Neither Brignac or Niemann are quite ready to be solid players now, but if they continue to develop, neither will have any problems pushing the people ahead of them out of the way.  While Pirate fans can be disappointed about the team being sellers yet again, they actually need to be.  Just because Bonifay and Littlefield were too incompetent to properly equip the Pirates for long-term competition doesn’t mean that it didn’t need to be done.  It just needed to be done well and Huntington should have the benefit of the doubt until he’s demonstrated he can’t do it properly either.  So far, the Pirates are getting exactly the players they need.  No more insisting that some major league mediocrity be thrown-in so that the GM can lose face.

2008 ZiPS Projection - Jason Bay
———————————————————————————————————-
Period       AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB   BA   OBP   SLG
———————————————————————————————————-
Year-to-Date 393 72 111 23 2 22 64 59 86   7 .282 .375 .519
Rest-of-Yr   183 31   48 10 1 10 30 28 47   3 .262 .363 .492
———————————————————————————————————-
Total       576 103 159 33 3 32 94 87 133 10 .276 .371 .510
———————————————————————————————————-
2009?      532 90 136 25 1 31 96 75 142   7 .256 .351 .481
———————————————————————————————————-
Top Comps:  Greg Vaughn, Ron Gant

 

2008 ZiPS Projection - Reid Brignac
———————————————————————————————————-
Period       AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB   BA   OBP   SLG
———————————————————————————————————-
Year-to-Date* 347 35   78 19 1   7 34 20 87   4 .225 .269 .346
Rest-of-Yr   161 18   39   9 1   3 17 10 34   2 .242 .291 .366
———————————————————————————————————-
* - Includes Minor League Translation  
———————————————————————————————————-
2009?      551 38 139 30 2 14 67 41 105   9 .252 .303 .390
———————————————————————————————————-
Top Comps:  Brendan Harris, Buddy Kerr

 

2008 ZiPS Projection - Jeff Niemann
————————————————————————————————
          W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA
————————————————————————————————
Year-to-Date*  6   8 20 20   95.1 105   57 15 47 64 5.38
Rest-of-Yr?  2   4   8   8   41.0   45   22   5 15 27 4.83
————————————————————————————————
* - Includes Minor League Translation
————————————————————————————————
2009?      8 10 25 25 128.0 135   68 14 52 91 4.78
————————————————————————————————
Top Comps:  Don Aase, Ryan Dempster

 

 

 

Dan Szymborski Posted: July 31, 2008 at 07:32 PM | 23 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. Enten Posted: July 31, 2008 at 07:54 PM (#2884792)
Gammons on ESPNews just said Tampa still expects Bay to end up in Boston...
   2. 1k5v3L Posted: July 31, 2008 at 07:56 PM (#2884796)
Rotoworld also links a report that says the Bay to Rays deal is not done
   3. Dan Posted: July 31, 2008 at 07:57 PM (#2884804)
You also should have put him as Jason Raymond Bay. COME ON, ZIM! Assuming the deal is even for real..
   4. Walt Davis Posted: July 31, 2008 at 08:00 PM (#2884826)
starting pitchers that don't stink

While they're not great, I put most of the blame on the Pirates' major- and minor-league coaching staffs. Without changes there, Niemann will be no better than anybody they have now.
   5. aleskel Posted: July 31, 2008 at 08:03 PM (#2884844)
DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN
   6. The importance of being Ernest Riles Posted: July 31, 2008 at 08:05 PM (#2884850)
Greg Vaughn, Ron Gant

Oh, like we're supposed to believe that.
   7. Dan Szymborski Posted: July 31, 2008 at 08:07 PM (#2884858)
Must...murder...mainstream media.
   8. 1k5v3L Posted: July 31, 2008 at 08:09 PM (#2884871)
Just save this entry for next July 31st, Dan.
   9. vortex of dissipation Posted: July 31, 2008 at 08:09 PM (#2884877)
MLB.com:

With the 4 p.m. ET Trade Deadline past, a baseball source in Tampa Bay confirmed that no deal was struck between the Rays and Pirates to send Jason Bay to Tampa Bay in exchange for prospects.
   10. Bull Pain Posted: July 31, 2008 at 08:10 PM (#2884884)
If true... Good to see the Rays were able to sell somewhat high on Niemann. He was never going to make their rotation. Brignac can be a league average major league SS or 2B in time, but Bartlett is useful enough at SS and maybe Tim Beckham can stay at the position.
   11. Dan Szymborski Posted: July 31, 2008 at 08:17 PM (#2884921)
Oh, like we're supposed to believe that.

ZiPS Screenshot, Jason Bay
   12. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: July 31, 2008 at 08:20 PM (#2884930)

ZiPS Screenshot, Jason Bay


Wow, Dusty Baker #3?
   13. Willie Mayspedes Posted: July 31, 2008 at 08:23 PM (#2884949)
Vista... ewwww
   14. Dan Szymborski Posted: July 31, 2008 at 08:25 PM (#2884957)
Vista... ewwww

That's XP with the Forest Green visual style from TuneUp Utilities 2008.
   15. Willie Mayspedes Posted: July 31, 2008 at 08:31 PM (#2885003)
Oh nice. How much of an alleged upgrade would you consider Bay for the Rays? Is it going to be an Angels / Rays ALCS?
   16. Mike Emeigh Posted: July 31, 2008 at 08:33 PM (#2885019)
MLB.com now says Bay is headed to LA, possible to be flipped to Boston. This is coming from Jenifer Langosch, who is the Pirates' beat writer for MLB.com, so it has a decent chance of being true.

-- MWE
   17. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: July 31, 2008 at 08:33 PM (#2885021)
Top Comps: Greg Vaughn, Ron Gant

I'd also suggest Ray Lankford, Cliff Floyd, Rondell White, and Gary Sheffield.
   18. Scott Kazmir's breaking balls Posted: July 31, 2008 at 08:35 PM (#2885043)
WDAE reports that Pittsburgh originally wanted Wade Davis and Reid Brignac. Tampa declined.
   19. Loren F. Posted: July 31, 2008 at 08:46 PM (#2885144)
Make that Jason Bay to the Red Sox.
   20. Barca Posted: July 31, 2008 at 08:51 PM (#2885199)
"How much of an alleged upgrade would you consider Bay for the Rays? Is it going to be an Angels / Rays ALCS?"

Wasn't that going to happen without any deals?
   21. TrueNorth Posted: July 31, 2008 at 08:58 PM (#2885247)
Looks all done now:

Dodgers get : Manny Ramirez
Red Sox get : Jason Bay + something
Pirates get: Andy LaRoche and Bryan Morris from the Dodgers
Brandon Moss and Craig Hansen from the Sox
   22. Willie Mayspedes Posted: July 31, 2008 at 09:02 PM (#2885270)
That was part of the question. I think it'll be close and who knows what will happen in the playoffs. If the Rays finish 2nd in the east they will play the Angels in a 5 game series.
   23. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: July 31, 2008 at 09:18 PM (#2885363)
Doh.

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