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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Tuesday, November 22, 2005

Red Sox - Acquired Beckett and Lowell

Boston Red Sox - Acquired P Josh Beckett and 3B Mike Lowell for SS Hanley Ramirez and P Anibal Sanchez and a player to be named.

A few years ago, the Twins had an impressive glut of outfielders and other weaknesses at the bottom of the rotation and the middle infield (though they didn’t quite realize the extent to which the latter was a weakness).  Not all of them or even most of them were stars, but they did have value at the time in filling the team’s holes.  But the Twins didn’t do anything.  They sat on their strength, whistled Dixie and watched their surplus fade away, none of the value realized.  Kielty?  One of the few they did trade, but for a player who’s now just as mediocre and much more expensive.  Restovich?  Lost on waivers.  Jones?  Likely gone.  Hunter?  They wish he was gone.  Those aren’t the only player.

What does this have to do with the Red Sox?  The Twins had a choice either to use the value of players or lose the value of those players.  They chose the latter.

Given that Lucchino’s thinking and organizational philosophy has won the day in the Byzantine environment of the Red Sox front office, it seems unlikely that a 1990s Brave mindset will be used for decision-making with the 2000s Yankees mindset being used instead.  Young players in this organization are no longer the future stars of tomorrow - well, they may be, but not in Beantown.  Now, the future is something to be avoided, the wall mended in place with duct tape instead of mortar.

As such, the Red Sox had to either use Sanchez and Ramirez as players or trade them and get the value that way.  Could this look horrible 10 years ago if Sanchez’ arm stays on?  Certainly.  But it’s better for Sanchez to star in Florida and the Red Sox get Beckett than Sanchez to pitch in Pawtucket for 3 years and watch his trade value go away.  Ramirez is a lesser prospect than Sanchez, clearly hyped more than his performance has warranted, and if one wants to win now and damn the future, it’s better to make someone else pay to try and wait and hope for Hanley’s tools to become skills.

One things the Marlins know how to do is commit to a rebuild.  The post-1997 firesale was ugly, but just take a look at the post-1997 Orioles to see what a half-ass rebuild does.  The Marlins dumped everything, built up a new team, won a World Series and started another rebuild cycle while the O’s haven’t even seen .500 in that span.

2006, this is a great trade for the Red Sox.  If you’re going for instant gratification, get something gratifying.  And Beckett certainly does that.  The constant blister problems are annoying but I’ll take them over constant shoulder problems and the side benefit that Beckett has been very mildly used compared to other very good young pitchers.  The question is - now that the Red Sox have crossed the Rubicon, will they now go all the way?  Pedroia to Minnesota for Hunter?  Lester for Kent?  Papelbon for Wily Mo Pena?  Youkilis for a random reliever?  In for a penny, in for a pound.  It’s not how I would personally go about it, but there’s more than one way to win a championship, I guess.


2006 ZiPS Projections
Player       W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA
Sanchez     7   6 23 23 118   97   50 13 47 137 3.84
Beckett     14   7 27 27 161 150   69 14 52 140 3.88


2006 ZiPS Projections
Player     AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB   BA   OBP   SLG
Ramirez     426 51 103 13 5   5 38 29 66 21 .242 .294 .331
Lowell     540 93 153 49 1 20 104 60 70   3 .283 .356 .489


Dan Szymborski Posted: November 22, 2005 at 01:02 AM | 121 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   101. Jake Taylor Posted: November 23, 2005 at 03:46 AM (#1743483)
FWIW, Kensing was shut down with elbow problems in August, and it's not clear how healthy he's going to be in '06.

He pitched without incident in the Arizona Fall League - they were using him out of the pen there and it looks like that's where his future is.

Josh Johnson is a 22-YO righty who spent most of the season with Carolina. Excellent stuff, inconsistent command. I don't think he has a lot of upside, though.

I'd disagree with that. Six-foot seven righthanders throwing 92-94 mph sinkers usually have a decent future. Many in the organization reportedly prefer him over Olsen.

How about Jason Stokes to replace the traded Delgado?

Stokes missed almost the entire season with some thumb problem. Don't know if he's healthy now or if that's still lingering.

Stokes = Dave Kingman.

I think the Marlins would take that, at least while he's doing it for 316K
   102. sublime Posted: November 23, 2005 at 05:16 AM (#1743507)
</blockquote>Lowell had 500 ABs and only 58 RBIs. For a "power man," or even an "average man," that blows. His worst enemy is the new drug policy. David Eckstein knocked in 61, Mark Grudzielanek had 59 RBIs. Christ, even Julio Lugo had 57 RBIs. Lowell is a liability.<blockquote>

You don't strike me as the overly intelligent type. Sure he sucked last year, but of all stats to use to say that you pick RBI's? Are you related to Joe Morgan by any chance?
   103. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 23, 2005 at 05:17 PM (#1743972)
Six-foot seven righthanders throwing 92-94 mph sinkers usually have a decent future. Many in the organization reportedly prefer him over Olsen.

Johnson's big advantage over Olsen is that his mechanics, compared to Olsen's, make him a better bet to stay healthy. But his problem has been that the 92-94 MPH sinker doesn't show up all the time, and when it doesn't he doesn't have enough quality in his other pitches to get by. We used to have the conversation about which Josh Johnson was going to show up before every game he pitched, and usually within the first two innings we could tell.

-- MWE
   104. Catfish326 Posted: November 23, 2005 at 07:15 PM (#1744257)
Red Sox fans. The ballyhood of anger. A "nation" of hatred, and envy, of a bigger apple. Sadly, their sole offense and defense has always been primitive and unsophisticated insults, such as "Yankees Suck." More energy should focus on their collective love, instead of their communal hate. Their negative band is in desperate need of a creative press agent.
   105. Phil Coorey. Posted: November 24, 2005 at 01:58 AM (#1744898)
Catfish you are a complete and utter loser. Stop posting your stupid crap in two different threads.
   106. 1k5v3L Posted: November 25, 2005 at 04:04 AM (#1745913)
mota goes to boston as well...

Red Sox, Marlins complete Beckett deal
By JIMMY GOLEN, AP Sports Writer
November 24, 2005

BOSTON (AP) -- The Marlins and Red Sox completed their trade that sends ace Josh Beckett and third baseman Mike Lowell to Boston, but not before reliever Guillermo Mota was added to a deal that netted Florida four prospects Thursday night.

The trade was reported and confirmed by baseball officials earlier in the week, but it wasn't finalized until the players passed their physicals. The announcement Thursday included two new names: Mota is headed to Boston and minor league right-hander Harvey Garcia to the Marlins.

Florida also gets top shortstop prospect Hanley Ramirez along with pitchers Anibal Sanchez and Jesus Delgado.
   107. SABRJoe Posted: November 25, 2005 at 06:15 AM (#1745995)
What is Mota's ZiPs in Fenway for '06?
   108. 1k5v3L Posted: November 25, 2005 at 03:12 PM (#1746144)
49 hits in 43 innings means he got hit hard?
   109. Psychedelic Red Pants Posted: November 25, 2005 at 08:28 PM (#1746399)
Garcia looks like a guy he has a 50/50 chance of making the majors. He struck out a lot but got hit hard too- 49 hits in 43 innings.

The greenville defense was dreadful, but what on earth makes you think an A-ball reliever has a 50% chance of making the major leagues? His chances at making the major leagues have nothing to do with 6 stray hits in A-ball.
   110. 1k5v3L Posted: November 25, 2005 at 08:44 PM (#1746422)
Garcia gave up only 3 homers in 44 2/3 IP, striking out over 9 per 9ip, and with k/bb ratio of 3 (54/18). Those 49 hits mean very little. He probably throws pretty hard, and if he can keep up the K and K/BB rates where they are as he's climbing up the ladder, he'll have a good shot at cracking the Marlins roster one day. If he can stay healthy.
   111. Darren Posted: November 25, 2005 at 08:51 PM (#1746427)
50/50? I'll take some of that action.
   112. Psychedelic Red Pants Posted: November 26, 2005 at 01:00 AM (#1746609)
kevin, you realize that, according to the odds you gave, you think much more highly of Garcia than anyone else here, right?

There's also not enough information in a pitcher's H/BIP in 40 IP to draw a meaningful conclusion about a player, no matter the level.
   113. Psychedelic Red Pants Posted: November 26, 2005 at 02:57 AM (#1746723)
No, I don't.

You said he had a 50/50 chance of making the big leagues. That's reason enough to disregard everything else you have to say on the matter. Here's what you said:

Garcia looks like a guy he has a 50/50 chance of making the majors. He struck out a lot but got hit hard too- 49 hits in 43 innings.

By your list above, he was about average in H/IP on his team in a microscopic 43 IP sample. Even if he were the worst on his team in a 43 IP sample, though, your argument is ridiculous on its face. There are a dozen reasons that Garcia is not a very good prospect and his H/IP at Low-A this year isn't one of them.
   114. Wozzyck Posted: December 05, 2005 at 12:34 AM (#1760583)
I know it's been asked above, but what is Mota's ZiPS projection for the Red Sox in 2006?
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