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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, August 10, 2005

Red Sox - Acquired Remlinger

Boston Red Sox - Acquired P Mike Remlinger from the Chicago Cubs for P Olivo Astacio.

There was no chance the Cubs could do any better than Astacio now that everyone has to pass through waivers first.  Astacio’s a raw project who’s a long way off at this point and more likely than not, will never pan out.  Remlinger’s first game with the Red Sox was fairly ugly, but he really has pitched better this season than the 5.45 ERA would suggest.  The problem with Remlinger, as brought up by Cubs fans every time Dusty Baker misuses him is that he’s a LOOGY who isn’t really a LOOGY.  Just check the OPSs in recent years.

Year         vs. LHP         vs. RHP
2005       .884             .709
2004       .847             .502
2003       .785             .623
2002       .632             .528
2001       .914             .565

In fairness, Dusty’s used Remlinger a lot better this year, but one has to hope that Remlinger’s new manager won’t have to start the learning process over again.

 

2005 ZiPS Projection - Mike Remlinger
—————————————————————————————-
Period     W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA
—————————————————————————————-
Actual ‘05   0   3 36   0   33   33   20   5 13 30 5.45
Rest ‘05   1   1 17   0   15   15   8   2   7 13 4.80
—————————————————————————————-
Total ‘05   1   4 53   0   48   48   28   7 20 43 5.25

Dan Szymborski Posted: August 10, 2005 at 01:31 PM | 12 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Jose Clutch (Replacement Level Poster) Posted: August 10, 2005 at 01:55 PM (#1535474)
PASS
   2. scotto Posted: August 10, 2005 at 01:55 PM (#1535475)
Dusty's used Remlinger a lot better this year, but one has to hope that Remlinger's new manager won't have to start the learning process over again.

The Embree experience suggests that Francona is not that manager.
   3. VG Posted: August 10, 2005 at 01:59 PM (#1535485)
scotto, I was just thinking that Remlinger truly is replacing Embree. I'm glad Embree was in the Bronx last night. Very glad.
   4. Russ Posted: August 10, 2005 at 02:03 PM (#1535492)
You would think that these reverse split pitchers would make for a great scouting experiment. With all the video available now, you might be able to figure out whether the reverse splits come from the delivery or from the release points. If it's in the windup or in the arm angle, well that's something you don't really want to mess with. But if it's in the release points, then that seems like something a smart, flexible pitcher could benefit from (changing your release point depending on what side of the plate the batter hits from).

The delivery could also be altered for different handed batters, but I usually don't like messing with something as fragile as a pitcher's arm angle cause that's how guys get injured. The release point is much safer (I would think) as it just determines when the ball leaves your hand.
   5. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: August 10, 2005 at 02:06 PM (#1535503)
The headline should have been "Cubs - Acquired random minor leaguer".
   6. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: August 10, 2005 at 02:25 PM (#1535555)
O.K., so Remlinger isn't as bad as 5.45, and Dusty used him correctly this year, and our sample size is tiny, and now my head is going to esplode. Why not just say we don't know anything?
   7. Larry Bowa Posted: August 10, 2005 at 02:35 PM (#1535585)
Nobody knows anything.
   8. Andere Richtingen Posted: August 10, 2005 at 02:42 PM (#1535613)
Actually, once everyone in the world except Dusty Baker figured out that Remlinger is not good against lefties, Baker changed his usage pattern.

I'd be more worried about the fact that Remlinger has given up 9 walks in his last 12 innings.
   9. H. Vaughn Posted: August 10, 2005 at 03:34 PM (#1535737)
Remlinger is bread which has been transmographied through placement in a chamber between two heating coils. He was basically pitching in pain during his entire tenure with the Cubs and by the time he admitted it and got his arm fixed, he had gotten old.
   10. Fred Garvin is dead to Mug Posted: August 10, 2005 at 03:42 PM (#1535750)
I never did finish my detailed study on Remlinger's use -- after initially observing that he faced more RHPs in his last year under Bobby Cox than he did under Dusty Baker, I was going further, trying to see (a) when he was entering games, (b) how long was he pitching, (c) who was the first batters he faced, and (d) what was the result.

I only looked at the first half of 2002 (under Cox), but it looked as if Remlinger was typically brought in to start and finish a full inning (unlike LOOGY use), but often the first hitter he faced was, in fact, LH. Anyway, it was a fairly labor intensive project and I sort of abandoned it, but perhaps I'll pick it up again later.

As for my initial, surface level analysis, it essentially showed that Cox used Remlinger to face about 70% RH hitters in 2002, but under Dusty, Remlinger faced about 60% RH hitters in 2003 and only 50% RH hitters in 2004 -- which seems like a very low amount, whether considered a "LOOGY" or not. This year, it's been a bit more RH oriented, but probably not in the same proportion as under Cox in 2002.
   11. Sexy Lizard Posted: August 10, 2005 at 07:53 PM (#1536733)
I looked up Mike Myers, who close to the Platonic ideal of a LOOGY, and over the last three years he has faced about 60% lefties. Remlinger's 2004 with 50% lefties (and 36 IP in 48 appearances) is perilously close to LOOGYdom.

Watching the Braves regularly in Remlinger's last few years there, my impression was always that Cox used him simply as his second-best reliever, sort of like a setup guy but not strictly. Handedness never seemed to be much of an issue, and he was usually in there for at least an inning. But this is from my recollection and casual observation, not Retrosheet or anything.
   12. Fred Garvin is dead to Mug Posted: August 10, 2005 at 08:15 PM (#1536848)
Watching the Braves regularly in Remlinger's last few years there, my impression was always that Cox used him simply as his second-best reliever, sort of like a setup guy but not strictly.

That's my impression as well. It just so happens that in the early half of 2002, though Remlinger was brought in for full-inning stints, many times the first hitter happened to be LH.

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