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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Sunday, January 08, 2006

Red Sox - Acquired Snow

Boston Red Sox - Signed 1B J.T. Snow to a 1-year, $2 million contract.

Well, it looks like the Red Sox need a defensive caddy for The Greek God for some odd reason.  Too bad they chose J.T. Snow, who’s probably the most overrated defensive 1B of this generation.  For all his legendary scooping ability, there isn’t the slightest shred of evidence that Giant infielders had better fielding percentages with Snow as their 1B than other Giant 1Bs or the 1B du jour in Phoenix/Fresno.  And Snow’s once decent range is now nonexistent.  I bet dollars to donuts that Youkilis is the better defensive 1B.  Yes, Snow hit well in ‘03 and ‘04.  He’s also going to be 38 and his bat speed was so slow in 2005 that you’d wonder if he forgot to take the weighted donut off.

Thumbs down.

2006 ZiPS Projection - J.T. Snow
————————————————————————————-
AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB   BA   OBP   SLG
————————————————————————————-
360 52   96 23 1   5 48 38 60   1 .267 .346 .378

Dan Szymborski Posted: January 08, 2006 at 07:49 PM | 21 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: January 08, 2006 at 10:56 PM (#1811633)
GRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR . . .

Pardon me, I just lost my mind for a moment there.

As a Red Sox fan, this has been a fascinating and frustrating off-season. Lots of bombshells, a few outright bombs, and . . . this. Up to this point, I've been able, at the very least, to squint at every move that's been made and go, "Huh. Well, that's an interesting idea." But J.T. Goddamned Snow? I understand that we can afford it, and hopefully Tito isn't having any thoughts about starting him regularly, but seriously -- J.T. Goddamned Snow? What, Scott Spiezio wasn't available? The more time drags on, the more they futz around with Manny and collecting the entirety of the world's population of benchworthy corner infielders, the more I become convinced that the new front office is planning on fielding Trot Nixon at center and Mark Loretta at short, in the hopes that scoring 1200 runs will make up for having the worst defense since the introduction of the padded glove. I foresee a mess of ugly wins -- and, unless things change, not enough of them to keep pace with New York.

Nef.
   2. 1k5v3L Posted: January 08, 2006 at 11:02 PM (#1811641)
And people here complained about the Eric Byrnes signing? Meh.
   3. chris p Posted: January 08, 2006 at 11:07 PM (#1811651)
well i like this deal. snow can still hit right handed pitching and 1b defense is more important in fenway due to the huge rf. he makes a good complement to kevin youkilis.
   4. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 08, 2006 at 11:12 PM (#1811663)
well i like this deal. snow can still hit right handed pitching and 1b defense is more important in fenway due to the huge rf.

He hit right-handed pitching in '03 and '04. He looked horrific last year - I'd be surprised if he matched even that projection above.

While 1B defense is important in Fenway, if the Red Sox wanted a defensive 1B, they should have gotten one who could play good defense instead of one who was simply a good, overrated defensive 1B a decade ago.
   5. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: January 08, 2006 at 11:20 PM (#1811672)
Last season, Snow batted 279 / 350 / 376 against righties. All right for a second baseman, absolute crap for a first baseman. Given that he'll be 38 before the season's start, I think you'd be hard-pressed to come up with a good reason to expect him to be better than that ibn 2006.

And it seems to me as though the size of RF doesn't have any particular bearing on how important 1B defense is -- what's important is flagging down flies, which falls under the aegis of the RF and CF. Given that Snow isn't a particularly great defensive 1B anymore, and the relatively small foul ground, his alleged defensive assets aren't going to make much difference to what promises to be one of the more porous defenses in recent memory.

And $2 million? Come on.
   6. Answer Guy Posted: January 08, 2006 at 11:29 PM (#1811680)
I foresee a mess of ugly wins -- and, unless things change, not enough of them to keep pace with <strike>New York</strike> Toronto.

While I wouldn't bet money on a third-place finish in 2006..having holes at shortstop and center field complete with a very shaky pitching staff doesn't bode well. Now if you're rebuilding, that's one thing, but adding J.T. Snow to play first base?
   7. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: January 08, 2006 at 11:43 PM (#1811699)
I just don't think Toronto has improved as much as most people seem to. I have a hard time seeing Glaus as any kind of godsend, given his deteriorating defense and the fact that he slugged .522 in Arizona last year, which is not exactly superstar stuff for a guy whose OBP is unlikely to crawl past .370. Lyle Overbay is 29 and has only really hit well for a first baseman in one season. Of their top two starters, one (Halladay) has been repeatedly injured and is exactly the kind of pitcher most likely to be hurt by the departure of Orlando Hudson; the other (Burnett) has a long and varied injury history, as well as never having been exactly outstanding in any particular season. They'll be better than last season, and they're probably the only team in the top 3 of the AL East who can make that claim with any assuredness, but I don't know if they'll be able to get out of third place.
   8. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 08, 2006 at 11:59 PM (#1811711)
And it seems to me as though the size of RF doesn't have any particular bearing on how important 1B defense is -- what's important is flagging down flies, which falls under the aegis of the RF and CF.

Well, I think Chris is referring to balls hit down the line.

If you're getting a pure defensive replacement, then go out and get one and damn the offense. Give Joe McEwing time at 1st and he'll make J.T. Snow look like Sam Horn there. Instead, the Red Sox get someone who isn't good enough offensively to help the team and not defensively good enough to mean a damn thing.
   9. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: January 09, 2006 at 12:06 AM (#1811715)
Instead, the Red Sox get someone who isn't good enough offensively to help the team and not defensively good enough to mean a damn thing.

And gave him two million dollars to do it. I feel like I'm reliving the Dan Duquette era.
   10. Los Angeles Waterloo of Black Hawk Posted: January 09, 2006 at 12:22 AM (#1811729)
And Snow's once decent range

There was once a play on which Snow exhibited decent range?!?!
   11. Baldrick Posted: January 09, 2006 at 12:28 AM (#1811731)
Of their top two starters, one (Halladay) has been repeatedly injured

This "Halladay is always hurt" thing pops up here a lot. Well, he's been injured twice in the last four years. And despite that has pitched 800 innings of Cy Young quality baseball.

And the second injury was from getting hit by a line drive, which is hardly his fault.
   12. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: January 09, 2006 at 12:38 AM (#1811737)
For all his legendary scooping ability, there isn't the slightest shred of evidence that Giant infielders had better fielding percentages with Snow as their 1B than other Giant 1Bs or the 1B du jour in Phoenix/Fresno.

Well, there was that memorable scoop of Darren Baker in the 2002 WS.
   13. Foghorn Leghorn Posted: January 09, 2006 at 01:19 AM (#1811790)
And the second injury was from getting hit by a line drive, which is hardly his fault.

Was he pitching at the time?
   14. Bitter Calculus Instructor Posted: January 09, 2006 at 01:55 AM (#1811823)
Given that he'll be 38 before the season's start, I think you'd be hard-pressed to come up with a good reason to expect him to be better than that ibn 2006

I do not think Snow will be very good next year, but did you see what he did in '04? That is a reason to expect him to be better than last year.
   15. Darren Posted: January 09, 2006 at 03:08 AM (#1811892)
And gave him two million dollars to do it. I feel like I'm reliving the Dan Duquette era.

Duquette paid $5 mil instead!

It's fun and easy to throw out all but last year, but that's a really foolish way to project future performance, even in a 38-year-old. Snow looks like a great replacement for Olerud: old guy, slow, great defensive rep, taking ABs away from a better hitter.
   16. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: January 09, 2006 at 04:17 AM (#1811997)
I do not think Snow will be very good next year, but did you see what he did in '04? That is a reason to expect him to be better than last year.

Did you see what Ken Caminiti did in 1996?

Seriously, Snow's 2004 wasn't quite that big a fluke, but I don't take it seriously as a reason to expect Snow to be significantly better next year, at the age of 38, than he was last year. Older players fall off a cliff with some regularity; I suspect that last season was that moment for Snow.
   17. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 09, 2006 at 06:56 AM (#1812122)
First time I saw Snow this year, in an early game against the Dodgers, my first reaction to his swing was to wonder if he was playing through a torn labrum or something.
   18. Raleigh Horn Posted: January 10, 2006 at 04:14 AM (#1813698)
It's fun and easy to throw out all but last year, but that's a really foolish way to project future performance, even in a 38-year-old. Snow looks like a great replacement for Olerud: old guy, slow, great defensive rep, taking ABs away from a better hitter.

Uh, Olderdude took away atbats from Kevin Millar. That alone deserves the gratitude of Red Sox Nation.
   19. Darren Posted: January 10, 2006 at 04:20 AM (#1813711)
Those ABs were not Millars to give away. They belonged to Petagine.
   20. PhillyBooster Posted: January 10, 2006 at 05:14 PM (#1814238)
Thought it's worth noting that Snow's father -- form L.A. Ram Jack Snow -- died yesterday.
   21. NBarnes Posted: January 11, 2006 at 09:04 AM (#1815633)
$2, and every AB Snow gets will be at the price of taking ABs from Youkilis and Petagine. Someone in the Sox's front office hates Youkilis and Petagine both with a fiery passion.

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