Red Sox - Acquired Wily Mo
Boston Red Sox - Acquired OF Wily Mo Pena from the Reds for P Bronson Arroyo. Signed OF Juan Gonzalez.
A good move for the Red Sox, though the upside of this addition is limited because of their roster construction. Pena has intriguing power and can usually hack his way into usefulness, the Red Sox still kind of need someone who can play center and while Pena would be a good platoon partner with Trot Nixon, they’ve shown little interesting in using Nixon in a straight platoon in the past. This was done with an eye to clearing some of the pitching excess but I’m not sure if Arroyo was the guy you wanted to skim off the top - he’s a dependably average pitcher, but there’s a lot that could go wrong with the Red Sox rotation this season.
I find this puzzling from the Reds’ perspective - the team’s offense has been the only strength and while a league-average innings eater is a huge bonus for the Reds, Arroyo is yet another fairly strong flyball pitcher in front of an outfield that will still stink defensively. Is the upgrade to Arroyo from Gosling/Wilson worth what they lose with Scott Hatteberg and possibly even Rich Aurilia (the Reds asked him get a first baseman’s glove, after all)? I don’t think it is - they already seem to be wanting Tony Womack to get a good deal of playing time. Roster churning at best. So far, I’d say the new Red management has been very disappointing - the only long-term goal they seem to have is to try and not finish last in the central division this upcoming season.
The Sox also signed Juan Gonzalez to a minor-league contract. I think it’s doubtful he ever plays for the Red Sox - the Sox aren’t in a position where they have a free roster spot for Gonzalez, especially now that they acquired Pena. Gonzalez probably ends up in the minors and ends up being flipped to a team that gets desperate for hitting in May.
2006 ZiPS Projection - Bronson Arroyo
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W L G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA
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11 9 33 30 185 188 84 19 48 130 4.09
2006 ZiPS Projections
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Player AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG
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Gonzalez 253 34 67 13 1 15 54 13 51 0 .265 .306 .502
Pena 335 56 90 16 0 23 76 23 111 3 .269 .319 .522
Dan Szymborski
Posted: March 20, 2006 at 06:01 PM |
68 comment(s)
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1. Dewey, Steven Wright Wannabe and Soupuss Posted: March 20, 2006 at 06:27 PM (#1908631)There's the rub - taken on its own, the talent being exchanged is about equal, but it's hard to see how Arroyo will help the Reds more than Pena would.
willie harris? adam stern? i don't think it's accurate to call wily mo a center fielder.
That's a pretty optimistic projection, all things considered. I'd be surprised if he matched it.
They have Loretta as a starter, Graffanino (for now), Pedroia in Pawtucket, and Willie Harris in emergencies. 2B is fine.
No he's not.
Wily Mo Pena, against lefties:2003: .204 AVG, .283 OBP, .352 SLG (in 54 AB)
2004: .302 AVG, .388 OBP, .651 SLG (in 86 AB)
2005: .291 AVG, .345 OBP, .536 SLG (in 110 AB)
Arroyo is roughly their 7th starter behind at least Schilling, Beckett, Wakefield, Wells, Clement, and Papelbon... and that's not to mention Lester and DiNardo, both of whom may be better than Arroyo as well. Not that Arroyo doesn't have value, but the Sox have TONS of mediocre pitching, most of it with larger upsides than Arroyo. And Arroyo is coming off a season in which his k-rate dropped precipitously.
In return for a pitcher who was essentially just a long-man in their bullpen and emergency starter at this point, the Red Sox got a good platoon partner for Nixon. Note also that besides hitting better against lefties, Pena also draws a decent number of walks against lefties.
The Sox traded a pitcher with an unimportant role for a player with a much more important role (platoon partner and spot outfield-starter), who is also young enough to still be improving.
The trade could still work out poorly for the Sox (if Arroyo returns to his 2004 levels), but for now, it looks like a good trade for the Sox. They got rid of surplus mediocrity and got a useful part and one with the potential to be better than merely useful.
It also gives the sox another OF'er for the future if they have to move Manny at some point and when Trot leaves.
It makes perfect sense.
I think that's stretching it. Arroyo is a league average starter, which is more than should be expected out of Lester and DiNardo at this point--and arguably Papelbon as well.
To me, this is the far more compelling argument for making the trade. AFAIK, the Red Sox don't have any great young OF prospects, so Pena could be a long term solution there. Still, I'm not sure it was worth giving up Arroyo for him.
When you get right down to it, we're really just arguing about Pena's breakout potential. I'm not that high on him, but if the Red Sox think he'll improve and be their RF of the future I guess it makes sense.
Arroyo's a solid pitcher and I like him to be somewhat above average and solidly rubber-armed. The issue is not his value in a neutral context, but that his replacement on the roster is one of Wells/Papelbon/Wakefield, depending on how you rank the other starters. Arroyo's good, but for the present, the Red Sox have lots of Arroyos.
And for the future, the upside difference is just huge.
And, why does everyone keep bringing up Soriano? The Red Sox have too many second basemen, not too few.
give me what you're smoking
Of course, assuming Freel is the replacement for Wily Mo in the outfield, this ensures that Womack will be the Reds' starting 2B on Opening Day. Oh, the humanity!
How the hell can Pedroia be 260? He's listed at 5-9, 180 and when I saw him last year, I thought both numbers were a stretch. I haven't seen Pedroia this spring, but I would imagine that if he now had the approximate body shape of Louie Anderson, there would have been a mention of it before this.
I love Bronson Arroyo, crazy-ass cornrows and all, and I'm sad to see one of the 25 go. And God help him pitching in the GAB in front of that crappy OF defense.
It's hard to be a Reds fan now, since the organization has been suffering a huge brain cramp since about the late 90s. So if the Reds are going to get fleeced, I'm glad the Sox are the ones to do it. At worst Wily Mo is the perfect 4th OF for the Sox - mashes lefties and can fake all 3 OF positions. But he could be the next Sammy Sosa. The dude is only 24. He has hit 45 HRs in the last 2 years when most of his contemporaries are in the minors. The Reds are completely addle-brained to give this up for a league-average starter with declining peripherals who can't get LHHs out.
I agree with SJH and the guy. If Francona manages the situation correctly, there could be over 60 starts for WMP. There are a lot of potential LH starters in the AL East (8 out of 20 by my count based on mlb.com depth chart). Add in starts against lefties in the other 85 or so games, WMP should start around 35-40 games against lefties. If Francona works Manny's (and Crisp's?) days off around LH pitchers, WMP should pick up another 10-15 days off. Add in injuries and moving Ortiz to first and pinch hitting, WMP may pick up enough PA's to stay sharp and maybe develop, considering his contract status.
I think you're mistaken about the Sox willingness to platoon Trot. They did so in 04 and 05, until Kapler went down. It seemed pretty clear that Francona simply didn't trust Hyzdu as his replacement, so Trot played full-time (and hurt), which was pretty foolish. But with Mohr and Wily Mo to pick from, I'm pretty sure Nixon will be heavily platooned.
I'm worried that it will become common for opposing managers to bring in a righty against Wily Mo late in the game, so that Francona will bring in Snow to hit for him.
I think Mohr is gone. They need to keep Stern out of camp, and I don't see any need for a 5th OF after Stern can be sent back.
Are you suggesting resting Manny vs lefties? If so, why?
I agree there's no Soriano trade coming, but you just described Wily Mo Pena too.
Wily Mo's younger than Soriano was when he first got significant time, but their career lines to date are pretty similar:
Pena 248/303/477 100 OPS+
AS 280/320/500 111 OPS+
Pena could turn into a plus hitter for a corner OF (Juan Gone was mentioned in the other thread). He could be of average value to just above like Kingman (who had some very nice years). Or he could be below average like Pete Incaviglia. Meanwhile, he's gonna be poor defensively.
Personally I don't see the Gonzalez comparison. Similar raw numbers, but at the same age, Gonzalez was posting OPS+ of 121, 134, 169 in full-time play.
In return for a pitcher who was essentially just a long-man in their bullpen and emergency starter at this point, the Red Sox got a good platoon partner for Nixon.
Which are they more likely to really need this season, an "emergency starter" or a 4th OF? Lefty mashers usually aren't that hard to find. Average starters are.
Now Pena does have that potentially bright future and they will need a new RF after this season. Of course, aren't Wells and Schilling both gone after this year. Wakefield can't hold on much longer and Clement is only there through 2007 right? Those 7 starters will be down to three soon enough.
Does anyone know what happened to him?
im surethe 1000 was flukey but he put up some decent numbers at 23, 24, was grrreat at 25 at done at 26. He never got more than 303 ABs in a year.
I had always known the name but didnt know his story really.
Last i saw him he was in 04 or 05 when he was with the Brewers AAA team, he was joking with a 5yo that was near the dugout. Seemed like a nice guy
I ask out of curiosity, im not trying to predict Wily Mo with some random guy on his sim list.
Isnt Wily Mo similar on O and D? That is raw but with potential? So he could (if im not wrong on the scouting reports) becomea plus RF defensively too if he ever learns to, well, stop screwing up
What a misleading use of comps. You're comparing Pena's career-to-date stats to Nunnally's career totals w/o adjusting for age.
B-R's age-based comps are better, and PECOTA's are even better than that. And both systems have some great comps for Wily Mo (especially PECOTA, which is why that system projects him so well).
On the other hand, why won't the Sox need a 4th outfielder? Trot Nixon has proved almost laughably brittle in recent years. Further, Wily Mo now backs up both LF and DH, should anything (god forbid) go wrong there.
I could see it, if he gets called out for missing home plate on a HR.
Given that he was illegally signed twice (and both teams got caught), I would guess they have his age right by now. He's been in major league paperwork for a decade.
Anyone who doesn't think the Sox need a 4th OF has not been watching them the last few years. And I love Arroyo, I'm very sad to see him go, but you can't judge this trade in a vacuum: Arroyo was going to start the season in the bullpen.
Still lots of questions regarding the 25 man roster and line-up. Trading Arroyo helps with the pitching logjam, but there are still too many pieces positionally. Assuming 11 pitchers breaking camp with the club, Papi at DH, 2 catchers ('Tek and Bard), 2 1B (Youkilis and Snow)that only leaves 9 roster spots for 2B, SS, 3B, and OF. Since Stern needs to stay for at least 17 more games, that leaves 8. Assuming Lowell plays 3B, and Loretta, Gonzalez, and Cora cover the middle infield - they're left with 4 OF spots - Crisp, Manny, Nixon, and Pena. Therefore, Mohr (who's had a very nice ST), Harris, Machado, Juan Gonzalez, and Graffanino all must get sent down. That's unfortunate given Tony Graff's 2005 performance and his utility (as well as speed and utility of Harris and Machado).
I've got to think there is another move or two by the RS in the near future. But it likely won't be for Soriano who really doesn't fit any RS needs positionally, would be yet another undisciplined free-swinger high K guy, and is currently demonstrating very loudly his "me first, team second (or lower)" attitude.
I don't think you read his entire post.
thankfully PECOTA loves him :)
I could see it, if he gets called out for missing home plate on a HR.
I think it's more likely that he'll tear up his leg muscles rounding up third base on a home run. Likely his first home run of the year.
One more time!!! Big Contract + 10/5 guy + Being on the Record about Where He Won't Go= Manny Stays Put.
What a misleading use of comps. You're comparing Pena's career-to-date stats to Nunnally's career totals w/o adjusting for age.
B-R's age-based comps are better, and PECOTA's are even better than that. And both systems have some great comps for Wily Mo (especially PECOTA, which is why that system projects him so well). "
No no, i just meant that thats how i saw Nunnallys BR page. I dont think they are esp. comparable and i wasnt using it to project Wily Mo (all of which i said). I was just wondering if anyone knew Nunnallys story bc it seems like he had an odd career path.
Graf cannot be sent down without clearling waivers. Maybe something will get worked out with the Mets.
Ummm...he's not above-average offensively (yet). His career OPS+ is 100. His OPS+ last season was 100. He was 121 in 2004. His career EQA is 263. Last year it was 267. In 2004 it was 279 which I think was about average for a corner OF. His PAs are mildly skewed towards vs. LH so in full-time play he'd probably be a bit worse.
To date, he Ks once per 2.9 AB. That is simply unsustainable ... I believe Rob Deer is the only guy to have a substantial career with that kind of K rate and he added a ton of walks (and decent defense I think) and still added up to just an average corner hitter.
I mentioned Pete Incaviglia. Through age 23 he had about 250 more PA and an OPS+ of 113. Kingman had about 200 fewer PA but an OPS+ of 121. Through age 24, Tony Batista had about the same number of PA and an OPS+ of 95. Through age 23, Juan Encarnacion had about 150 fewer PA and an OPS+ of 95. Through age 23, Andre Dawson had about 400 more PA and an OPS+ of 107.
Those are all low-walk, high-power hitters. I don't know who his PECOTA comps are, but I had a hard time thinking of (or finding) many fairly recent hitters like this with substantial playing time through age 23. There are some average to very good hitters in that list ... and they all posted better overall numbers than Pena through age 23. There are a couple not-so-good hitters there in Batista and Encarnacion and they both hit about the same as Pena (perhaps especially if we corrected for L/R splits). Batista, Encarnacion and Dawson brought defense (or at least the reputation) and speed to the game. OK, Batista's not a base-stealer.
He has potential. Maybe when you bring in body type and all that stuff, he projects great. But to me, even given his age, his performance has not been so outstanding for me to think he'll become anything special and there's at the very least a real good chance he won't. He absolutely has to lower that K-rate (or blow up the walk rate) or he's toast.
Fair enough. My apologies to jump on you for that.
In today's game, 6th and 7th starters are very important roles. Almost nobody's 5-man staff makes it through the year. With pitchers aged 39, 39, and 43 (one coming off an injury) plus one who's never pitched 180 innings in a season, and sure looks to me like starting pitching depth is of utmost importance. And FA pitching value costs a lot more than FA hitting value so replacing any of those pitchers over the next 1-2 years is likely gonna cost them a lot more (per win at least) than replacing Nixon.
Arroyo's certainly no great shakes and he's no kid. This is a perfectly fine trade with an upside for the Red Sox. It's also one with a high probability of biting them in the ass. And, in my opinion, is not a good move in the short term.
From the Reds perspective, it might well be a good move in the short term but what do they care about the short term?
Vernon Wells through 23: 277/308/441 95 OPS+ in about the same number of PA as Pena.
Thanks to his great 2003, he's now up to 108 OPS+ for his career (103, 104 the last two years) which is certainly nice for a CF but nothing special for a corner OF (with poor defense).
Shawn Green's a positive one: 274/324/460/96 through 23, was consistently above-average after that.
Also, Wily Mo, even if he doesn't improve, provides an upgraded backup to LF, RF and DH, being an improvement over Dustan Mohr.
Some positive comps:
Jesse Barfield hit 246/323/426/97 at age 22 and 253/296/510/112 at age 23. His next three years were 123/142/147 before he fell off again.
Willie Stargell hit 243/290/428/103 at age 23. and turned into Willie Stargell.
I mention these two guys because they're Wily Mo Pena's #1 and #2 comparables in PECOTA this year. PECOTA projects him at 280/345/560.
One big problem in looking at career OPS+ is that Wily Mo's terrible contract situation forced him to play in the big leagues when he wasn't ready. He has OPS+ of 52 and 66, but he had to be on a major league roster or he'd be lost on waivers. I think looking at his '04 and '05 is much more useful than adding in those 200 PA that no player in baseball since the bonus baby era would have had to suffer through.
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