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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Saturday, August 20, 2005

Red Sox - DFAed Bellhorn

Boston Red Sox - Designated 2B Mark Bellhorn for assignment.

Stathead fave he may be, Bellhorn really is having a terrible season and you can’t reasonably expect a contending team to keep going with him when they have other stopgaps and a top prospect in the works.  It’s only too bad that the Sox are unable to make the same decision with Tom Brady over at first.  Bellhorn will pop up against somewhere and if not, perhaps Japan if he digs the cuisine.  Cora and Graffanino will split time at 2nd until being pushed away by Dustin Pedroia.  Bellhorn could be back in September if nobody claims him.

2005 ZiPS Projection - Mark Bellhorn
——————————————————————————————————
Period     AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB   BA   OBP   SLG
——————————————————————————————————
Actual ‘05 283 41   61 20 0   7 28 49 109   3 .216 .328 .360
Rest ‘05   109 17   27   7 1   3 14 19 35   1 .246 .364 .413
——————————————————————————————————
Total ‘05 392 58   88 27 1 10 42 68 144   4 .224 .338 .375
Proj. ‘06 429 65 104 30 1 11 52 77 136   4 .242 .359 .394

Dan Szymborski Posted: August 20, 2005 at 12:53 PM | 123 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: August 20, 2005 at 01:11 PM (#1559731)
I'd take him on the Pirates.
   2. greenback calls it soccer Posted: August 20, 2005 at 02:51 PM (#1559799)
No offense to Scott Seabol, but the Cardinals have a place for Bellhorn.

Isn't Millar more like Drew Henson than Tom Brady?
   3. Old Matt Posted: August 20, 2005 at 02:56 PM (#1559805)
He's better than anyone the Mets have.
   4. Dan Szymborski Posted: August 20, 2005 at 02:58 PM (#1559809)
Isn't Millar more like Drew Henson than Tom Brady?

Kevin doesn't think so.
   5. chris p Posted: August 20, 2005 at 03:19 PM (#1559823)
Cora and Graffanino will split time at 2nd

looks like Graffanino is the every day 2B.
   6. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: August 20, 2005 at 03:27 PM (#1559829)
Plenty of offense to Aaron Boone, but would Bellhorn not be an improvement?
   7. buddy34 Posted: August 20, 2005 at 04:12 PM (#1559864)
since june 1, boone has hit .293/.353/.449 in 218 at-bats.
   8. The Ghost's Tryin' to Reason with Hurricane Season Posted: August 20, 2005 at 04:45 PM (#1559891)
I hope they can trade him to an NL team for anything, and perferably not the Cards. No matter how sucky he's been, the last thing you want to to have him face you in the ALCS. Second last, the WS.
   9. 1k5v3L Posted: August 20, 2005 at 04:52 PM (#1559907)
I'd DFA Clayton to pick him up, move Counsell to SS. Of course, AZ won't do this, because they such major ####.
   10. Foster Posted: August 20, 2005 at 05:22 PM (#1559939)
Well, thanks for everthing, Belly.

The teenage girl I recently saw in the mall, wearing a "I want to make porn with Bellhorn" t-shirt must be crying on her unicorn pillow.
   11. chris p Posted: August 20, 2005 at 05:24 PM (#1559943)
I'd DFA Clayton to pick him up, move Counsell to SS. Of course, AZ won't do this, because they such major ####.

i thought AZ had a bunch of major league-ready middle infield prospects?
   12. chris p Posted: August 20, 2005 at 05:27 PM (#1559949)
so i just checked the stats for tucson ... is hairston hurt or something? and what does andy green have to do to get a shot?
   13. 1k5v3L Posted: August 20, 2005 at 05:29 PM (#1559953)
chris, this move would aim at making sure az doesn't resign royce clayton for 3 more years. if all things break right, either drew or santos will play SS next year. counsell is signed for another year at 2b, and he's fine there.
   14. chris p Posted: August 20, 2005 at 05:31 PM (#1559959)
is drew's D at short good enough? i thought they were going to move him to 2b or the outfield.
   15. 1k5v3L Posted: August 20, 2005 at 05:33 PM (#1559966)
hairston had a shoulder surgery, on his non-throwing shoulder, so he's out for the season. green isn't on the 40 man roster, but i'd push clayton under the first truck on I-10 to give his roster spot to green. the guy is having a career year and no one really notices.
   16. greenback calls it soccer Posted: August 20, 2005 at 05:37 PM (#1559977)
Kevin doesn't think so.

Goodness, the advantages of burying my head in the sand WRT All Things Evil Empires 1 & 2 keep growing.
   17. 1k5v3L Posted: August 20, 2005 at 05:39 PM (#1559988)
drew will be ok at short. incidentally, the player he's being compared to (defensively) is jeter, when he was at this stage of his professional career. so maybe az SHOULD move drew to 2b. for now, he's still at SS. and, i actually think az will keep green in CF for the time being, maybe next year too, maybe even 07, which would free up RF for quentin. it would also mean az could move upton to CF once he's ready for the majors, which may be sometime around 2007...
   18. The definitely immoral Eric Enders Posted: August 20, 2005 at 05:55 PM (#1560027)
As a Dodger fan, I heartily approve of levski's plan for AZ to keep Shawn Green in CF for the next three years.
   19. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: August 20, 2005 at 05:59 PM (#1560033)
As a Dodger fan, I heartily approve of levski's plan for AZ to keep Shawn Green in CF for the next three years.

Giants fan seconds.
   20. MM1f Posted: August 20, 2005 at 06:14 PM (#1560072)
"He's better than anyone the Mets have. "

I am biased (being a Georgia fan) but Id rather the Mets see what they have in Jeff Keppinger. Also they could see if this newfound bat of Anderson Hernandez is for real and if it is he's a nice player because hes always been able to play D
   21. 1k5v3L Posted: August 20, 2005 at 06:15 PM (#1560078)
Surprisingly, Green has been good in CF. Much much better than Cruz Jr. was. Any stat you look at, ZR, RF, FPCT, or BProspectus's rate2, all rank Green as above average in CF so far this year. Granted, it's been only 15 games or so (98 innings, actually), but he looks even better in CF than he did in RF. And, he looked a LOT better in RF THIS year than he did LAST year. I still would like to know what UZR says about Green Of course, I wouldn't expect Dodgers and Giants fans to know all this.

Just for kicks


Player Inn/CF ZR RF FPCT rate2
Winn 186.7 .900 3.21 1.00 107*
Green 98.0 .914 3.03 1.00 101
Bradley 611.0 .883 2.70 .989 114

* rate2 with SF

Granted, 98 innings is just that. But a) Green in CF opens up RF for Quentin; and b) Green's bat is very good for a CFer. So far this year, his line is .289/.358/.489, with 18 homers in 446 ab. If AZ can get that production from its CFer, along with average defense there, I'll happily let LA and SF fans suffer in their ignorance.
   22. The definitely immoral Eric Enders Posted: August 20, 2005 at 06:19 PM (#1560093)
levski, I think you need to get a visit from the sample size police. I find it difficult to believe that someone who was a subpar defensive right fielder can magically transform into an above-average CF a couple years later at ages 32-35.

Like I said, I hope they stick with tht plan.

Were I a DBacks fan, I'd be in favor of Quentin in center and Green in right.
   23. 1k5v3L Posted: August 20, 2005 at 06:21 PM (#1560103)
I forgot this: Green's salary this year is $12.5m. Of that, AZ pays him $2.5m. LA pays him $10m. But of course, by getting rid of Green, LA assured that Choi could play FULL TIME at 1B, where he undoubtedly would post monster numbers, and that LA would finish AT LEAST 20 GAMES AHEAD OF AZ. Enders said so.
   24. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: August 20, 2005 at 06:26 PM (#1560117)
I forgot this: Green's salary this year is $12.5m. Of that, AZ pays him $2.5m. LA pays him $10m. But of course, by getting rid of Green, LA assured that Choi could play FULL TIME at 1B, where he undoubtedly would post monster numbers, and that LA would finish AT LEAST 20 GAMES AHEAD OF AZ. Enders said so.

What does any of that have to do with whether its prudent to play Green in CF?
   25. 1k5v3L Posted: August 20, 2005 at 06:26 PM (#1560120)
Enders, according to BPro, Green's defense in RF was above average in 2002 (rate2 107), in 2003 (108) and in 2005 (106). In 2004, it was 93. Green had a subpar defensive season in RF in 2003, but it does appear he is/was a lot better this year in RF. And he has looked pretty good in CF so far.

All the caveats about sample size, etc, etc, apply. And Green won't never win gold gloves in CF. But if he can free up RF for Quentin (where all scouts agree that Quentin will be a defensive stud), then I can live with Green's D in CF. Fins was there until he was 39, and AZ survived.
   26. The definitely immoral Eric Enders Posted: August 20, 2005 at 06:29 PM (#1560135)
What does any of that have to do with whether its prudent to play Green in CF?

I was wondering the same thing myself.
   27. I Love LA (OFF) Posted: August 20, 2005 at 06:30 PM (#1560139)
How reliable are BPros' defensive stats?

And if Quentin is a stud in RF, why not just shift him to CF? And what happens to Tracy? He's nothing special, but I bet a couple of teams could use him...
   28. 1k5v3L Posted: August 20, 2005 at 06:31 PM (#1560146)
643, gloating on primer has nothing to do with being prudent. Green looks about as decent as Fins did in AZ, and I can live with that. Of course, I'd still trade him in a second, but Moorad loves him, so he isn't going anywhere. Which means that, either AZ keeps Green in RF, thus blocking Quentin AND creating the need for a CFer, or AZ moves Green to CF and brings up Quentin.

Enders said he'd rather have Quentin in CF; Quentin has been playing a lot of CF down in AAA, so he might be given a shot at CF in the majors. However, the opinion of scouts is that Quentin will be a stud in RF, but probably just average in CF. Thus, if I can get average defense from Green in CF until Drew or Upton is ready to play there, and super defense from Quentin in RF, I'd go with that. And I'll sleep well at night.
   29. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: August 20, 2005 at 06:33 PM (#1560156)
Fins was there until he was 39, and AZ survived.

Again, what does this statement have anything to do with whether its prudent to play Green in CF?

Finley was also an above-average (albeit overrated) defensive centerfielder throughout his 20s and into his 30s. UZR has ranked Green's performance during his prime as one of the worst defensive RFers (and 1B). The two are not even close comps in defensive ability.
   30. 1k5v3L Posted: August 20, 2005 at 06:34 PM (#1560159)

I was wondering the same thing myself.


I was wondering about all those zips simulations...

Tracy gets screwed out of RF, just luck he got screwed out of 1B and 3B. If all things pan out the way I want them to, he'll be Gonzo's replacement in LF down the road.
   31. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: August 20, 2005 at 06:37 PM (#1560168)
Thus, if I can get average defense from Green in CF until Drew or Upton is ready to play there

I don't think that you realize the leap from reality involved in assuming that Green can be an average defender in centerfield in his mid-30s. If that were the case, then I'd agree. But none of your data support that notion, and there is a ton of data that you are ignoring that indicate that Green would not be a competent CFer.
   32. 1k5v3L Posted: August 20, 2005 at 06:38 PM (#1560172)
Uh, Dear Prudence (643), if nothing I wrote above makes sense, then email Dear Abby.
   33. Danny Posted: August 20, 2005 at 06:59 PM (#1560243)
Are you really basing your argument on ~10 games? Do you think Rich Aurilia is rounding into 2001 form?
   34. The definitely immoral Eric Enders Posted: August 20, 2005 at 07:12 PM (#1560290)
Hey levski,
Trade you Jeff Francoeur for Conor Jackson...
   35. Gotham Dave Posted: August 20, 2005 at 07:25 PM (#1560337)
Listen, Arizona really does the aged body wonders. Better than Florida! There's a loooong (well, six or seven year) track record of old, old players going to AZ and playing way better than could reasonably be expected. Green playing a competant CF sounds nutty, but if there's one place where I'd buy it it'd be with the D'backs.

It's not likely (again, really not likely), but I think stranger things have happened.
   36. Gotham Dave Posted: August 20, 2005 at 07:31 PM (#1560361)
In any case, I think most of us can agree that Green is probably better in CF than a certain guy who's played 97 games in center for a certain team with a certain $200 million payroll. And probably another certain centerfielder who played for the D'backs as recently as last year. So he won't be the worst. Isn't there anything to be said for being not-the-worst?

I mean, if Green's UZR is average -15 in RF, maybe he adjusts well to CF and is -15 there as well. Considering his offense, you can live with that. You'd probably still rather have a guy like Kotsay or Cameron, but they don't grown on trees.
   37. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: August 20, 2005 at 08:56 PM (#1560593)
"I'd take him on the Pirates."

Just to expand on my thought, Bellhorn and Freddy Sanchez match up well on skills and weaknesses. Bellhorn has power and walks, while Sanchez has contact rate and defense. The only downside is that neither one's very good against RHP.
   38. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: August 20, 2005 at 09:13 PM (#1560611)
I hope Bellhorn latches on as a starter somehwere.
   39. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: August 20, 2005 at 09:49 PM (#1560653)
I mean, if Green's UZR is average -15 in RF, maybe he adjusts well to CF and is -15 there as well.

The problem is that its not a matter of -15. Levski's observations over a dozen games or whatever aside, there is no reason to expect a guy who's a well below-average corner outfielder to be anything other than a much worse CF. Tangotiger can probably address the issue, but from his work on True Talent Fielding Levels, it looks like his model predicts that a -15 UZR corner outfielder (assuming that's a fair assessment of his true talent) translates roughly to a -30 UZR centerfielder.

Its not an exact science, but that's the neighborhood of performance (ie, one of the worst in the game) that we should expect Green to perform in CF. Not -15. And certainly nowhere near 0 (as levski so absurdly proposes by expecting him to be average).
   40. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: August 20, 2005 at 09:51 PM (#1560656)
Boo Shawn Green. Stay out of this topic. This is a Bellhorn topic and must stay that way!
   41. MM1f Posted: August 20, 2005 at 09:51 PM (#1560657)
"I hope Bellhorn latches on as a starter somehwere. "

Why? He sucks, no below-average player has been more overrated by the people on this site

"The only downside is that neither one's very good against RHP. "

The only downside is that neither one can hit 80% of the pitchers in the game
   42. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: August 20, 2005 at 09:52 PM (#1560658)
It's a good thing you have no idea what you're talking about, "Me".
   43. MM1f Posted: August 20, 2005 at 09:52 PM (#1560659)
And do the Pirates really need more utility IF types?
   44. MM1f Posted: August 20, 2005 at 09:58 PM (#1560671)
"It's a good thing you have no idea what you're talking about, "Me"."

Care to explain why it is reasonable to think that Bellhorn has a good chance of being even an adequate stopgap starter any more?
Is it really hard to beleive that a relativly unathletic 2b whose main skill is drawing walks and who broke into the majors relatively late* is a good bet to be starting quality player for more than a few years?

*-yes i know he got 220 abs as a 22 yo but it wasnt till he was 27 that he played at all again
   45. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: August 20, 2005 at 09:58 PM (#1560673)
This is the Pirates. Ambition inevitably leads to disappointment.
   46. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: August 20, 2005 at 10:01 PM (#1560674)
Tangotiger can probably address the issue, but from his work on True Talent Fielding Levels, it looks like his model predicts that a -15 UZR corner outfielder (assuming that's a fair assessment of his true talent) translates roughly to a -30 UZR centerfielder.

Two quick things:

First, there should have been a "better" in front of the first comma.

Second, I just did a quick-and-dirty look based only on his recent RF performance. Green also put together some ugly UZR numbers at 1B in 2004 (albeit only ~2/3rds of a season) that might depress his expected performance in CF further. I am not sure if Tango's model would take that into account or not. I do believe that MGL has said that 1B and corner OFs are comparable, so maybe not.
   47. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: August 20, 2005 at 10:03 PM (#1560675)
Care to explain why it is reasonable to think that Bellhorn has a good chance of being even an adequate stopgap starter any more?

He's recently added Jose Canseco to his cell phone's speed dial?
   48. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: August 20, 2005 at 10:08 PM (#1560684)
Care to explain why it is reasonable to think that Bellhorn has a good chance of being even an adequate stopgap starter any more?

Because he was the best second baseman in the league last year? Because it's a bit unusual to drop off from the best at your position to unable to start over an offseason when you're only 30?

Oh, and as for your "can't hit 80% of pitchers" comment, Bellhorn's 7th HR of the year was off of Randy Johnson.
   49. MM1f Posted: August 20, 2005 at 10:29 PM (#1560714)
"Because he was the best second baseman in the league last year? "

Come on, youre smarter than that...you are arent you. First off he was only barely the best hitting 2b in the AL last year. (uribe, cairo, Boone, soriano, belliard, and infante were all close once you think about the park differences....uribe was probably actually a bit better) Also when you factor in his iron glove theres no way he was the best 2b in the league. and even if he was that doesnt mean he was much better than above average (compared to usual standards), often times there arent great players at one position in one league one year. For chrristsakes think of the battle for best catcher in the NL this year...its a hardly inspiring list.
Everything about Bellhorn screams short career with a quick falloff.

"Oh, and as for your "can't hit 80% of pitchers" comment, Bellhorn's 7th HR of the year was off of Randy Johnson. "

A leftie. My comment there was in re: to Vlad saying neither could hit RHP. I was saying how RHP make up 70-80% or so the arms in the bigs.
   50. RickG Posted: August 20, 2005 at 10:49 PM (#1560750)
Bellhorn would fit well on Chicago's south side -- he's better than Blum and the Sox need all the offense they can get.
   51. MM1f Posted: August 20, 2005 at 10:51 PM (#1560755)
"He has tremendous poew for a second baseman. He hit 37 doubles and 17 homers last year, scored 93 runs while spending much of the year in the 8 and 9 hole."

In a park that inflates that and theres no way hes better than below average defensively.

Players who struggle as much as he does to make contact as a much as he does walk a fine line. It'd be one thing if he had Adam Dunn power to make up for it, to make pitchers cautious, but he doesnt. It is good power for his position, ill grant you that but his overall package is hardly one Id want to depend on as a starter, he hasnt show much consistancy from year to year in his career. If you dont have huge power you arent too useful (in a starting role) while hiting .230 unless you are a damn good defensive C or SS that does everything else real well. Dont get me wrong i think hed make a nice supersub but he is stretched as a 500ab starter. also he just doesnt have the traits that long lasting players usually do.

theres nothing wrong with liking a player bc hes tough ect but to say that it means he should be a starter is absurd
   52. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: August 20, 2005 at 11:04 PM (#1560787)
theres no way hes better than below average defensively.

Why? Because you say so?
   53. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: August 20, 2005 at 11:08 PM (#1560793)
In all fairness, Bellhorn's not hitting of RHP has so far been much better than Sanchez's not hitting of them, though I can't believe Sanchez's ginormous split is a true talent reflection.
   54. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: August 20, 2005 at 11:15 PM (#1560803)
By the way, Bellhorn's career OBP vs. righties? .350, or exactly one point below his OBP below lefties. The difference is in hitting for power.
   55. MM1f Posted: August 20, 2005 at 11:29 PM (#1560818)
"t'd be one thing if he had Adam Dunn power to make up for it, to make pitchers cautious, but he doesnt.

Don't be an idiot. Adam Dunn can't play second base. "

I wasnt saying he could....im saying having Dunns power is one of the only ways a guy can survive long with contact issues like that. Im not saying his low average and high Ks make him crap. I AM saying that they raise serious doubts about his performance going forward and thus id be very wary of giving him a starting job

"Why? Because you say so? "

No because he doesnt seem to get to that many balls compared to other 2b. What about him would make anyone think of him as a good defender? you saying so?


" Fenway doesn't inflate homers anymore.That's Sandberg territory, the guy who just got into the HoF. "

It sure as hell seems to inflate the 2bs of lefty mashing types and yeah idiotic me...how could i not see the similiarites between Bellhorn having a career year for homers and a Hall of Famer. If were going to bring up the good out of place year why not bring up the bad and equally out of line one right after that where he had a 640 something OPS split between Wrigley and COORS! He can hit, but not well enough to rely on him to be a quality starter.
   56. MM1f Posted: August 20, 2005 at 11:31 PM (#1560820)
"By the way, Bellhorn's career OBP vs. righties? .350, or exactly one point below his OBP below lefties. The difference is in hitting for power. "

Yeah he realizes he cant hit them as well so hes more willingto take the free pass. that schitck doesnt last long once the league catches on
   57. MM1f Posted: August 20, 2005 at 11:41 PM (#1560831)
Did you not see repeated refernces to in the future?!? im not denying that hes had 2 solid years in his career. so has Todd Hollandsworth, whats your point? God, maybe i should just throw the words STERIOD TEST RUMORS between every line so youll actually read though before telling me which HOFer Bellhorn is like now
   58. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: August 21, 2005 at 12:06 AM (#1560866)
Yeah he realizes he cant hit them as well so hes more willingto take the free pass. that schitck doesnt last long once the league catches on

Yeah. Drawing walks definitely isn't a skill. You're exactly right.
   59. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: August 21, 2005 at 12:07 AM (#1560870)
No because he doesnt seem to get to that many balls compared to other 2b. What about him would make anyone think of him as a good defender? you saying so?

He's average to slightly below average in range, and he turns an excellent double play. That adds up to at least an average defensive second baseman.
   60. Mikαεl Posted: August 21, 2005 at 02:49 AM (#1561120)
Me, then: Why? He sucks, no below-average player has been more overrated by the people on this site

Me, now: I AM saying that they raise serious doubts about his performance going forward and thus id be very wary of giving him a starting job

The second argument is a long, long way from the first.

I don't agree with the second - I'd think if the problem were that obvious, "the league" would have been able to put it together during one of his big seasons, or the Yankee advance scouts would've kept him from ending their season. But the second argument is at least putting forth a theory, admitting it's a theory, and offering reasoning.
   61. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: August 21, 2005 at 02:53 AM (#1561128)
The user name "Me" really confused me in Mikael's post, in that I thought Mikael was referring to himself at first and couldn't figure out when he became a Bellhorn hater.
   62. Mikαεl Posted: August 21, 2005 at 02:57 AM (#1561137)
Bellhorn SuXorZZ
   63. MM1f Posted: August 21, 2005 at 04:20 AM (#1561245)
yeah, he sucks, in relation to what people think he is....i think its obvious enough that i didnt mean he sucks as in "he hits like Scott Spezio". And in his career overall he has been a below average player. i stand by that statement

"Yeah. Drawing walks definitely isn't a skill. You're exactly right."

No its a skill alright but the rest of the league can adjust and jsut challenge him more often to counteract that skill. Just like a hitter can make a curveball pitcher less effective by laying off it



"The user name "Me" really confused me in Mikael's post"

ok, a point i agree with. i do need a new handle
   64. mgl Posted: August 21, 2005 at 04:39 AM (#1561256)
I'll chime in a little. Green's UZR has been poor in the OF almost his whole career, at least for the last 4 years or so. I had him projected at -10 going into this year. As of the ASB this year, he was -6. Moving into CF would make his defense a lot worse, as you are now compared to much better players and you get more chances. You never move a below average corner OF'er into CF (unless you only other available OF'er is worse defensively). Only dumb teams put players in certain defensive positions who don't belong there. The reason they do that and the fans and local media don't revolt is that it is not obvious that, for example, Bernie has belonged at DH or at the corners for many years now. Ditto for Griffey. Jeter belonged at third, second or CF. Michael Young does not belong at SS. Etc. Putting Green in CF is really dumb, but no one will notice because it is not easy to notice -15 or -20 runs (per season) on defense, as long as a player is "smooth." It is real easy to notice that many negative runs as a hitter.

Bellhorn has had a slightly above average UZR at second his whole career. His bat is pretty good for a 2B. I would take him on my team in a second (assuming I did not already have a well-above average 2B or 3B), although I would prefer to platoon him with a LHB, as he is much better overall versus LHP.

Finley had a slightly above average UZR through age 30. After that, it has declined precipitously. I don't know from where he ever got the reputation as a GG CF'er. Perhaps he is one of the small percentage of players who are truly much better than their long-term UZR, for whatever reasons. I don't know. I cannot tell much about a player's defense no matter how much I watch him, unlike a multitude of other observers (apparently). I should say that I don't trust my observations. I can watch a player day in and day out and think that he is terrible, average, good, or whatever defensively, but I don't trust that judgement any more than I trust my assessment of a player's offensive production from watching him hit day in and day out. In fact, even less so...
   65. MM1f Posted: August 21, 2005 at 04:53 AM (#1561260)
And i do agree w. mikael that i allowed my point to drift too much
   66. DCW3 Posted: August 21, 2005 at 05:22 AM (#1561280)
Bellhorn has had a slightly above average UZR at second his whole career. His bat is pretty good for a 2B. I would take him on my team in a second (assuming I did not already have a well-above average 2B or 3B), although I would prefer to platoon him with a LHB, as he is much better overall versus LHP.

Prediction: Bellhorn is a Cardinal within a few days, and we get a Bellhorn-Nunez platoon for the rest of the year.
   67. shock Posted: August 21, 2005 at 05:45 AM (#1561294)
Just to take things a little more off-topic, I'd like to know what UZR says about Vernon Wells, if possible...

Bellhorn is a guy that I always rooted for, so I'm glad he's no longer on the Sox. He was having a very bad year though. I'd take him on the Jays if we didn't already have an excellent 2b.
   68. DCW3 Posted: August 21, 2005 at 06:13 AM (#1561317)
In fact, I'll speculate even further: Bellhorn catches the Cardinal magic, has a .400+ OBP down the stretch and hits a pivotal home run in the World Series against the Red Sox. Jason Isringhausen then induces Edgar Renteria to hit a weak ground ball for the final out of the series.
   69. Cowboy Popup Posted: August 21, 2005 at 02:04 PM (#1561445)
"Because it's a bit unusual to drop off from the best at your position to unable to start over an offseason when you're only 30?"

How old was Alomar? 32? Biggio's numbers took a big hit after 32 or something. I'm pretty sure there are alot of 2nd baseman who have declined significantly in their early 30s, because of the nature of the position. I don't know this for a fact, but in my observations, Bellhorn has never seemed like a really athletic guy, so maybe the rigors of playing second took an early toll on him. Or maybe he bounces back next year because he's not allowed to have two good years in a row.
   70. mgl Posted: August 21, 2005 at 03:30 PM (#1561530)
Nunez is a terrible hitter from both sides of the plate (despite a halfway decent season thus far). Bellhorn is a thousand times better versus RHP.

I think Bellhorn is slow, but I am not sure. Slow players have a much steeper aging curve than faster players, on the average.

Wells' UZR as of the ASB this year was +3. Last year +6 and 03, +7 (all per 150 games)...
   71. Cowboy Popup Posted: August 21, 2005 at 03:41 PM (#1561542)
mgl, small favor to ask, how's O-dawg doing this year? You don't even have to give me a number if you don't want to. Amazing, good, decent, whatever adjective you think is appropriate. I'm kinda hoping/expecting amazing.
   72. JPWF13 Posted: August 21, 2005 at 04:04 PM (#1561569)
"Why? He sucks, no below-average player has been more overrated by the people on this site"

Prior to this year their was no way to classify Belhorn as a "below average" player unless you subtracted his Ks from his walks (I saw an asinine site that does just that- the author was exasperated that no nothing statheads think its a good idea to walk- whereas they ignored the far more imporatant category of batter Ks- which are important as opposed to pitcher Ks which are not...)

Right now he's obviously having a really bad year:-)

Anyway, defensively, imho based upon small sample size observation, he looks OK defensively- BUT it seems that a lot of balls pass just slightly beyond his reach- reminds me of another lightning rod that way...
   73. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: August 21, 2005 at 05:43 PM (#1561695)
How old was Alomar? 32? Biggio's numbers took a big hit after 32 or something. I'm pretty sure there are alot of 2nd baseman who have declined significantly in their early 30s, because of the nature of the position. I don't know this for a fact, but in my observations, Bellhorn has never seemed like a really athletic guy, so maybe the rigors of playing second took an early toll on him. Or maybe he bounces back next year because he's not allowed to have two good years in a row.

Biggio didn't really drop off a lot until his age-36 season, and he was still posting a .734 OPS. Alomar's drop off was during his age 34 season.

Of course, Bellhorn's no Biggio or Alomar, but he is still only 31 at the moment.
   74. Cowboy Popup Posted: August 21, 2005 at 06:01 PM (#1561715)
"Biggio didn't really drop off a lot until his age-36 season, and he was still posting a .734 OPS."

Yeah, but he lost significant power and speed numbers at 32 or so. I didn't really look at the numbers until now. He was still a good player, but ceased to be a star. The drop off in production was similiar to Bellhorn's offensively, IMO, only he had much further to fall and Bellhorn feel a little steeper.

"Of course, Bellhorn's no Biggio or Alomar, but he is still only 31 at the moment."

I definately agree that it would be silly to write him off after a bad 300 ABs. I'm just thinking that if he does fall off, it wouldn't be as big a mystery as it would be if he played in a corner.
   75. MM1f Posted: August 21, 2005 at 06:20 PM (#1561748)
"Prior to this year their was no way to classify Belhorn as a "below average" player"

But including this year you have a guy with 2 good years, 3 bad years (including one horrendous one at Coors), and 3 50 ab years that he didnt hit at all during. And he only had one really good half year in the minor at that was at Edmonton in 97, a great hitters park. The rest of the time he hit around .260 with Ks in 30% or so of his ABs but also showed good power and a good eye. That does not scream "solid full time player" to me. It scream guy who will have trouble making enough contact for his good skills to be useful. Bellhorn is a career .238 .350 .404 major league hitter. When you also consider his limited range that makes a below average starting 2bman
His similarites include Geoff BLum, Terry Shumpert, Eric Hinske, and Shane Halter (though to be fair Phil NEvin also sohws up)
   76. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: August 21, 2005 at 06:43 PM (#1561776)
Bellhorn is a career .238 .350 .404 major league hitter. When you also consider his limited range that makes a below average starting 2bman

Uh, I'm pretty sure a .754 OBP-heavy OPS for a 2B is just fine, and his range is not nearly as limited as you keep saying it is.

The rest of the time he hit around .260 with Ks in 30% or so of his ABs but also showed good power and a good eye. That does not scream "solid full time player" to me.

It should, since that's exactly what he did last season.
   77. Cowboy Popup Posted: August 21, 2005 at 06:57 PM (#1561812)
"But including this year you have a guy with 2 good years, 3 bad years (including one horrendous one at Coors), and 3 50 ab years that he didnt hit at all during."

This is kind of misleading. In his good years, Bellhorn got 445 and 523 ABs. In his bad years, he got 224 ABs, 249 ABs and 283 ABs. So his bad years don't really add up to cancel out his good years. One of his bad years was 8 years ago, as a 22 year old second baseman. I'm not sure how bad it really was. A .256 EQA out of a 22 year old second baseman isn't really "bad", is it?

Thing with Bellhorn is, because of the kind of player he is, when he's going bad, he doesn't typically get the chances a Luis Rivas would get to hit his way out of his slump.

Interestingly, Bpro, for his career has him at 5 runs above average at with the bat, and 5 runs below average in the field, making him exactly an average player.
   78. MM1f Posted: August 21, 2005 at 07:04 PM (#1561830)
" In his bad years, he got 224 ABs, 249 ABs and 283 ABs. "

Of course he got fewer at bats. He sucked those years. And even if you give him a mullligan for his rookie year he was pretty mediocre in AAA in the following 3 years. And for a highwalk guy like Bellhorn PAs are probably more useful than ABs

----

"The rest of the time he hit around .260 with Ks in 30% or so of his ABs but also showed good power and a good eye. That does not scream "solid full time player" to me."

It should, since that's exactly what he did last season. "

Thats what he did in TRIPLE A. I wasnt denying that he might be a fine AAA 2b man.
   79. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: August 21, 2005 at 07:11 PM (#1561843)
Thats what he did in TRIPLE A. I wasnt denying that he might be a fine AAA 2b man.

No, that's what he did LAST SEASON, in the MAJOR LEAGUES. He hit .264, K'ed in 34% of his at bats, but showed good power (17 HR) and a good eye (88 BB). And he was most certainly, at least, a "solid full time player".
   80. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: August 21, 2005 at 07:11 PM (#1561845)
Thats what he did in TRIPLE A. I wasnt denying that he might be a fine AAA 2b man.

And this guy knows a thing or two about fine AAA second basemen. He is Mike Mordecai's number one fan, afterall.
   81. MM1f Posted: August 21, 2005 at 07:41 PM (#1561902)
Hey now, Mike was a Clutch Hitting Veteran CLubhouse Leader who brought Integrity and some other intangibles i cant quite pinpoint right now to the table....and he had a superduper clutch hit in the 95 series (or maybe it was the NLCS) at any rate he deserves induction into the Lenny Harris HOF
   82. salajander Posted: August 21, 2005 at 07:52 PM (#1561925)
The Red Sox seemed to make out OK relying on him last year.

How did that turn out again?


Not saying it was necessarily the case with Bellhorn, but frequently a team will win despite a player, not because of him.
   83. Andere Richtingen Posted: August 21, 2005 at 07:59 PM (#1561932)
This has already happened with Bellhorn.

He hit .258/.374/.512 in 2002 in 529 PAs, then hit .209/.341/.317 the next season in 173 before being dumped. A lot of people, myself included, decried the fact that the Cubs were "solving" the Bellhorn problem with worse alternatives, but fact is, he was not performing.

I'm not surprised to see him having a bad season, but I also would not be surprised to see him repeat 2002 or 2004 next season.
   84. Cowboy Popup Posted: August 21, 2005 at 08:19 PM (#1561979)
"but I also would not be surprised to see him repeat 2002 or 2004 next season."

I would be stunned if he repeats 2002, he was unbelievable that year. I think it's time to consider that the man is Reggie Sanders at second. I forget if Sanders is good in odd years or even, but Bellhorn may have the "successful every other year" thing too.
   85. MM1f Posted: August 21, 2005 at 08:34 PM (#1562003)
"No, that's what he did LAST SEASON, in the MAJOR LEAGUES. He hit .264, K'ed in 34% of his at bats, but showed good power (17 HR) and a good eye (88 BB). And he was most certainly, at least, a "solid full time player". "


Yes i wasnt denying that..,i am saying that it isnt common for a guy who has a mediocre track record to be a good full time player. Im not saying he cant have a nice year. Do you really think .264/.373/.444 or .258/.374/.512 are that representitive of his true abilities considering his career on the whole? They are at the top of the range he can be expected to producce. Bellhorn is a guy with a cult following that considers him an All-Star 2nd baseman simply because he draws walks despite the fact that hes not all that good in general. Hes a 31 year old with TWO good big league years. Im DEFINATELY not saying drawing walking is a bad thing. Its (obviously) a good thing, its the next best thing to a single. But to say that becuase he can do that and hit the occasional extrabase hit means hes the elite guy youre making him out to be is ludicrous.
   86. MM1f Posted: August 21, 2005 at 08:39 PM (#1562018)
"I would be stunned if he repeats 2002, he was unbelievable that year. I think it's time to consider that the man is Reggie Sanders at second. I forget if Sanders is good in odd years or even, but Bellhorn may have the "successful every other year" thing too. "

Reggies actually been pretty solid for a few years now. Plus Reggie has more raw talent and the profile of a guy who will be good at later ages so its less surprising that hes been able to keep it up. I dont know if this has been studyied but guys that alternate good and bad years tend to wind up being more bad than good in the futureit seems. (DOug M altnernated good and bad years for a little bit)
   87. Cowboy Popup Posted: August 21, 2005 at 08:49 PM (#1562048)
"Reggies actually been pretty solid for a few years now."

His 2002 especially wasn't as dramatic as the other years (especially at the end of the 90s), but he's still maintained the up-down phenomenon (at least per EQA), which is awesome. He was pretty mediocre in 2004, but 03 and 05, he's been nasty.
   88. Harold can be a fun sponge Posted: August 21, 2005 at 09:25 PM (#1562116)
Interestingly, Bpro, for his career has him at 5 runs above average at with the bat, and 5 runs below average in the field, making him exactly an average player.

BPRo compares his offense to the average batter, and his fielding to the average 2B. If you believe in positional adjustments, then BPro's numbers have him a fair bit above average.
   89. Cowboy Popup Posted: August 21, 2005 at 09:29 PM (#1562122)
"If you believe in positional adjustments, then BPro's numbers have him a fair bit above average."

Yeah, I know, I just thought it was funny, despite not being accurate. Way to look at the numbers and present them accurately.
   90. DCW3 Posted: August 21, 2005 at 10:07 PM (#1562194)
Mark Grudzielanek missed today's game; apparently he's in the hospital with some kind of knee infection. And I doubt Scott Seabol helped his cause any with his throwing error that led to three unearned runs. I repeat: Bellhorn=Cardinal.
   91. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: August 21, 2005 at 11:43 PM (#1562400)
I suppose I could deal with rooting for one player on the opposing team during the World Series...

Bellhorn is a guy with a cult following that considers him an All-Star 2nd baseman simply because he draws walks despite the fact that hes not all that good in general.

Yes, it's clearly only because he draws walks. Not because he's a second base who can also hit for power.

Like it or not, he definitely should have been an All-Star last season. I'm not sure about '02, and I don't really care to look it up, but I wouldn't be surprised if he should have been an All-Star then also.
   92. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: August 21, 2005 at 11:45 PM (#1562402)
Anyway, since no one's mentioned it in this topic yet, here's the really strange thing about Bellhorn's '05:

Bellhorn at home, '04: .283/.380/.494
Bellhorn at home, '05: .168/.247/.307

Mystifying. His road splits this year are actually better than his road splits from last year.
   93. mgl Posted: August 22, 2005 at 12:38 AM (#1562475)
Who is "O-dawg"? Orlando Cabrera? He is +10 in UZR at the ASB, which is right in line with his projection (+6).

Bellhorn's MLE lwts plus (lwts divided by major league average lwts) in the minors from 96 to 01 were an average of 95 (that is 95% of an average major league batter). That's a nice number for a second baseman and also right in line with his major league numbers. All of the numbers indicate that he is a nice major league second baseman. If you don't believe UZR and you think he is a below average 2B'man, he is still a decent overall player. If you believe UZR, and believe he is an above-average 2B, he is a very nice overall player. Who cares about walks, K's, power, etc. Lwts is lwts, no matter how you want to spin it. Also who cares about the juxtaposition of his yearly stats. Every year is simply a sample of a player's true ability. Once you start with, "Well, in year X he did this, and in year Y he did that," you can justify just about any position you want (player is good, bad, in between, etc.).

As has been proven, the only thing that counts is a large sample of a player's performance, most-recent performance weighted a little more than most distant. Any other "patterns" we see in a player's year to year stats can only be chalked up to fluctuation (whether they are or they aren't), injuries being somewhat of an exception of course...
   94. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: August 22, 2005 at 12:47 AM (#1562484)
So, please tell me you'll tell the Cards to pick him up, MGL. Heh.

Who is "O-dawg"? Orlando Cabrera? He is +10 in UZR at the ASB, which is right in line with his projection (+6).

I think he means Orlando Hudson.
   95. Phil Coorey is a T-Shirt Salesman Posted: August 22, 2005 at 01:10 AM (#1562509)
Remind me to start listening to Juliana Hatfield again...

Mark Bellhorn may have been booed out of Boston, but there were countless fans who will never forget what he did to help them win the World Series in 2004. When Juliana Hatfield and The Gentlemen played The Paradise in Boston on Saturday night, Juliana put a picture of Bellhorn on stage -- in tribute.
   96. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: August 22, 2005 at 01:25 AM (#1562530)
I don't know who Juliana Hatfield is, but that's awesome.
   97. shock Posted: August 22, 2005 at 01:36 AM (#1562546)
Orlando Hudson is the O-Dawg, and he is the master of second base.
   98. Howie Menckel Posted: August 22, 2005 at 03:34 AM (#1562718)
Is there a subclass of Primate that both expected Bellhorn to suck this year AND don't expect Shawn Green to be a horrible CF?

Sometimes I wish we had a policer who would take notes on some of the most smug statements here, and then check on them a few months later.
Love the site, love SABRmetrics, started buying Bill James books 20 years ago. But nobody has all the answers, ya know?
   99. mgl Posted: August 22, 2005 at 05:46 AM (#1562867)
Ok, Hudson. A +4 at the ASB. Was projected at a +6. At least I got the Orlando correct...
   100. Phil Coorey is a T-Shirt Salesman Posted: August 22, 2005 at 06:59 AM (#1562919)
mgl, if at all possible do you have Renteria's UZR so far this year?

Seems he gets to a lot of balls I don't expect him too, though his errors are alarmingly high as well!

Thanks if you can.
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