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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Saturday, August 20, 2005
Red Sox - DFAed Bellhorn
Boston Red Sox - Designated 2B Mark Bellhorn for assignment.
Stathead fave he may be, Bellhorn really is having a terrible season and you can’t reasonably expect a contending team to keep going with him when they have other stopgaps and a top prospect in the works. It’s only too bad that the Sox are unable to make the same decision with Tom Brady over at first. Bellhorn will pop up against somewhere and if not, perhaps Japan if he digs the cuisine. Cora and Graffanino will split time at 2nd until being pushed away by Dustin Pedroia. Bellhorn could be back in September if nobody claims him.
2005 ZiPS Projection - Mark Bellhorn
——————————————————————————————————
Period AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG
——————————————————————————————————
Actual ‘05 283 41 61 20 0 7 28 49 109 3 .216 .328 .360
Rest ‘05 109 17 27 7 1 3 14 19 35 1 .246 .364 .413
——————————————————————————————————
Total ‘05 392 58 88 27 1 10 42 68 144 4 .224 .338 .375
Proj. ‘06 429 65 104 30 1 11 52 77 136 4 .242 .359 .394
Dan Szymborski
Posted: August 20, 2005 at 12:53 PM | 123 comment(s)
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Isn't Millar more like Drew Henson than Tom Brady?
Kevin doesn't think so.
looks like Graffanino is the every day 2B.
The teenage girl I recently saw in the mall, wearing a "I want to make porn with Bellhorn" t-shirt must be crying on her unicorn pillow.
i thought AZ had a bunch of major league-ready middle infield prospects?
Goodness, the advantages of burying my head in the sand WRT All Things Evil Empires 1 & 2 keep growing.
Giants fan seconds.
I am biased (being a Georgia fan) but Id rather the Mets see what they have in Jeff Keppinger. Also they could see if this newfound bat of Anderson Hernandez is for real and if it is he's a nice player because hes always been able to play D
Just for kicks
Player Inn/CF ZR RF FPCT rate2
Winn 186.7 .900 3.21 1.00 107*
Green 98.0 .914 3.03 1.00 101
Bradley 611.0 .883 2.70 .989 114
* rate2 with SF
Granted, 98 innings is just that. But a) Green in CF opens up RF for Quentin; and b) Green's bat is very good for a CFer. So far this year, his line is .289/.358/.489, with 18 homers in 446 ab. If AZ can get that production from its CFer, along with average defense there, I'll happily let LA and SF fans suffer in their ignorance.
Like I said, I hope they stick with tht plan.
Were I a DBacks fan, I'd be in favor of Quentin in center and Green in right.
What does any of that have to do with whether its prudent to play Green in CF?
All the caveats about sample size, etc, etc, apply. And Green won't never win gold gloves in CF. But if he can free up RF for Quentin (where all scouts agree that Quentin will be a defensive stud), then I can live with Green's D in CF. Fins was there until he was 39, and AZ survived.
I was wondering the same thing myself.
And if Quentin is a stud in RF, why not just shift him to CF? And what happens to Tracy? He's nothing special, but I bet a couple of teams could use him...
Enders said he'd rather have Quentin in CF; Quentin has been playing a lot of CF down in AAA, so he might be given a shot at CF in the majors. However, the opinion of scouts is that Quentin will be a stud in RF, but probably just average in CF. Thus, if I can get average defense from Green in CF until Drew or Upton is ready to play there, and super defense from Quentin in RF, I'd go with that. And I'll sleep well at night.
Again, what does this statement have anything to do with whether its prudent to play Green in CF?
Finley was also an above-average (albeit overrated) defensive centerfielder throughout his 20s and into his 30s. UZR has ranked Green's performance during his prime as one of the worst defensive RFers (and 1B). The two are not even close comps in defensive ability.
I was wondering the same thing myself.
I was wondering about all those zips simulations...
Tracy gets screwed out of RF, just luck he got screwed out of 1B and 3B. If all things pan out the way I want them to, he'll be Gonzo's replacement in LF down the road.
I don't think that you realize the leap from reality involved in assuming that Green can be an average defender in centerfield in his mid-30s. If that were the case, then I'd agree. But none of your data support that notion, and there is a ton of data that you are ignoring that indicate that Green would not be a competent CFer.
Trade you Jeff Francoeur for Conor Jackson...
It's not likely (again, really not likely), but I think stranger things have happened.
I mean, if Green's UZR is average -15 in RF, maybe he adjusts well to CF and is -15 there as well. Considering his offense, you can live with that. You'd probably still rather have a guy like Kotsay or Cameron, but they don't grown on trees.
Just to expand on my thought, Bellhorn and Freddy Sanchez match up well on skills and weaknesses. Bellhorn has power and walks, while Sanchez has contact rate and defense. The only downside is that neither one's very good against RHP.
The problem is that its not a matter of -15. Levski's observations over a dozen games or whatever aside, there is no reason to expect a guy who's a well below-average corner outfielder to be anything other than a much worse CF. Tangotiger can probably address the issue, but from his work on True Talent Fielding Levels, it looks like his model predicts that a -15 UZR corner outfielder (assuming that's a fair assessment of his true talent) translates roughly to a -30 UZR centerfielder.
Its not an exact science, but that's the neighborhood of performance (ie, one of the worst in the game) that we should expect Green to perform in CF. Not -15. And certainly nowhere near 0 (as levski so absurdly proposes by expecting him to be average).
Why? He sucks, no below-average player has been more overrated by the people on this site
"The only downside is that neither one's very good against RHP. "
The only downside is that neither one can hit 80% of the pitchers in the game
Care to explain why it is reasonable to think that Bellhorn has a good chance of being even an adequate stopgap starter any more?
Is it really hard to beleive that a relativly unathletic 2b whose main skill is drawing walks and who broke into the majors relatively late* is a good bet to be starting quality player for more than a few years?
*-yes i know he got 220 abs as a 22 yo but it wasnt till he was 27 that he played at all again
Two quick things:
First, there should have been a "better" in front of the first comma.
Second, I just did a quick-and-dirty look based only on his recent RF performance. Green also put together some ugly UZR numbers at 1B in 2004 (albeit only ~2/3rds of a season) that might depress his expected performance in CF further. I am not sure if Tango's model would take that into account or not. I do believe that MGL has said that 1B and corner OFs are comparable, so maybe not.
He's recently added Jose Canseco to his cell phone's speed dial?
Because he was the best second baseman in the league last year? Because it's a bit unusual to drop off from the best at your position to unable to start over an offseason when you're only 30?
Oh, and as for your "can't hit 80% of pitchers" comment, Bellhorn's 7th HR of the year was off of Randy Johnson.
Come on, youre smarter than that...you are arent you. First off he was only barely the best hitting 2b in the AL last year. (uribe, cairo, Boone, soriano, belliard, and infante were all close once you think about the park differences....uribe was probably actually a bit better) Also when you factor in his iron glove theres no way he was the best 2b in the league. and even if he was that doesnt mean he was much better than above average (compared to usual standards), often times there arent great players at one position in one league one year. For chrristsakes think of the battle for best catcher in the NL this year...its a hardly inspiring list.
Everything about Bellhorn screams short career with a quick falloff.
"Oh, and as for your "can't hit 80% of pitchers" comment, Bellhorn's 7th HR of the year was off of Randy Johnson. "
A leftie. My comment there was in re: to Vlad saying neither could hit RHP. I was saying how RHP make up 70-80% or so the arms in the bigs.
In a park that inflates that and theres no way hes better than below average defensively.
Players who struggle as much as he does to make contact as a much as he does walk a fine line. It'd be one thing if he had Adam Dunn power to make up for it, to make pitchers cautious, but he doesnt. It is good power for his position, ill grant you that but his overall package is hardly one Id want to depend on as a starter, he hasnt show much consistancy from year to year in his career. If you dont have huge power you arent too useful (in a starting role) while hiting .230 unless you are a damn good defensive C or SS that does everything else real well. Dont get me wrong i think hed make a nice supersub but he is stretched as a 500ab starter. also he just doesnt have the traits that long lasting players usually do.
theres nothing wrong with liking a player bc hes tough ect but to say that it means he should be a starter is absurd
Why? Because you say so?
Don't be an idiot. Adam Dunn can't play second base. "
I wasnt saying he could....im saying having Dunns power is one of the only ways a guy can survive long with contact issues like that. Im not saying his low average and high Ks make him crap. I AM saying that they raise serious doubts about his performance going forward and thus id be very wary of giving him a starting job
"Why? Because you say so? "
No because he doesnt seem to get to that many balls compared to other 2b. What about him would make anyone think of him as a good defender? you saying so?
" Fenway doesn't inflate homers anymore.That's Sandberg territory, the guy who just got into the HoF. "
It sure as hell seems to inflate the 2bs of lefty mashing types and yeah idiotic me...how could i not see the similiarites between Bellhorn having a career year for homers and a Hall of Famer. If were going to bring up the good out of place year why not bring up the bad and equally out of line one right after that where he had a 640 something OPS split between Wrigley and COORS! He can hit, but not well enough to rely on him to be a quality starter.
Yeah he realizes he cant hit them as well so hes more willingto take the free pass. that schitck doesnt last long once the league catches on
Yeah. Drawing walks definitely isn't a skill. You're exactly right.
He's average to slightly below average in range, and he turns an excellent double play. That adds up to at least an average defensive second baseman.
Me, now: I AM saying that they raise serious doubts about his performance going forward and thus id be very wary of giving him a starting job
The second argument is a long, long way from the first.
I don't agree with the second - I'd think if the problem were that obvious, "the league" would have been able to put it together during one of his big seasons, or the Yankee advance scouts would've kept him from ending their season. But the second argument is at least putting forth a theory, admitting it's a theory, and offering reasoning.
"Yeah. Drawing walks definitely isn't a skill. You're exactly right."
No its a skill alright but the rest of the league can adjust and jsut challenge him more often to counteract that skill. Just like a hitter can make a curveball pitcher less effective by laying off it
"The user name "Me" really confused me in Mikael's post"
ok, a point i agree with. i do need a new handle
Bellhorn has had a slightly above average UZR at second his whole career. His bat is pretty good for a 2B. I would take him on my team in a second (assuming I did not already have a well-above average 2B or 3B), although I would prefer to platoon him with a LHB, as he is much better overall versus LHP.
Finley had a slightly above average UZR through age 30. After that, it has declined precipitously. I don't know from where he ever got the reputation as a GG CF'er. Perhaps he is one of the small percentage of players who are truly much better than their long-term UZR, for whatever reasons. I don't know. I cannot tell much about a player's defense no matter how much I watch him, unlike a multitude of other observers (apparently). I should say that I don't trust my observations. I can watch a player day in and day out and think that he is terrible, average, good, or whatever defensively, but I don't trust that judgement any more than I trust my assessment of a player's offensive production from watching him hit day in and day out. In fact, even less so...
Prediction: Bellhorn is a Cardinal within a few days, and we get a Bellhorn-Nunez platoon for the rest of the year.
Bellhorn is a guy that I always rooted for, so I'm glad he's no longer on the Sox. He was having a very bad year though. I'd take him on the Jays if we didn't already have an excellent 2b.
How old was Alomar? 32? Biggio's numbers took a big hit after 32 or something. I'm pretty sure there are alot of 2nd baseman who have declined significantly in their early 30s, because of the nature of the position. I don't know this for a fact, but in my observations, Bellhorn has never seemed like a really athletic guy, so maybe the rigors of playing second took an early toll on him. Or maybe he bounces back next year because he's not allowed to have two good years in a row.
I think Bellhorn is slow, but I am not sure. Slow players have a much steeper aging curve than faster players, on the average.
Wells' UZR as of the ASB this year was +3. Last year +6 and 03, +7 (all per 150 games)...
Prior to this year their was no way to classify Belhorn as a "below average" player unless you subtracted his Ks from his walks (I saw an asinine site that does just that- the author was exasperated that no nothing statheads think its a good idea to walk- whereas they ignored the far more imporatant category of batter Ks- which are important as opposed to pitcher Ks which are not...)
Right now he's obviously having a really bad year:-)
Anyway, defensively, imho based upon small sample size observation, he looks OK defensively- BUT it seems that a lot of balls pass just slightly beyond his reach- reminds me of another lightning rod that way...
Biggio didn't really drop off a lot until his age-36 season, and he was still posting a .734 OPS. Alomar's drop off was during his age 34 season.
Of course, Bellhorn's no Biggio or Alomar, but he is still only 31 at the moment.
Yeah, but he lost significant power and speed numbers at 32 or so. I didn't really look at the numbers until now. He was still a good player, but ceased to be a star. The drop off in production was similiar to Bellhorn's offensively, IMO, only he had much further to fall and Bellhorn feel a little steeper.
"Of course, Bellhorn's no Biggio or Alomar, but he is still only 31 at the moment."
I definately agree that it would be silly to write him off after a bad 300 ABs. I'm just thinking that if he does fall off, it wouldn't be as big a mystery as it would be if he played in a corner.
But including this year you have a guy with 2 good years, 3 bad years (including one horrendous one at Coors), and 3 50 ab years that he didnt hit at all during. And he only had one really good half year in the minor at that was at Edmonton in 97, a great hitters park. The rest of the time he hit around .260 with Ks in 30% or so of his ABs but also showed good power and a good eye. That does not scream "solid full time player" to me. It scream guy who will have trouble making enough contact for his good skills to be useful. Bellhorn is a career .238 .350 .404 major league hitter. When you also consider his limited range that makes a below average starting 2bman
His similarites include Geoff BLum, Terry Shumpert, Eric Hinske, and Shane Halter (though to be fair Phil NEvin also sohws up)
Uh, I'm pretty sure a .754 OBP-heavy OPS for a 2B is just fine, and his range is not nearly as limited as you keep saying it is.
The rest of the time he hit around .260 with Ks in 30% or so of his ABs but also showed good power and a good eye. That does not scream "solid full time player" to me.
It should, since that's exactly what he did last season.
This is kind of misleading. In his good years, Bellhorn got 445 and 523 ABs. In his bad years, he got 224 ABs, 249 ABs and 283 ABs. So his bad years don't really add up to cancel out his good years. One of his bad years was 8 years ago, as a 22 year old second baseman. I'm not sure how bad it really was. A .256 EQA out of a 22 year old second baseman isn't really "bad", is it?
Thing with Bellhorn is, because of the kind of player he is, when he's going bad, he doesn't typically get the chances a Luis Rivas would get to hit his way out of his slump.
Interestingly, Bpro, for his career has him at 5 runs above average at with the bat, and 5 runs below average in the field, making him exactly an average player.
Of course he got fewer at bats. He sucked those years. And even if you give him a mullligan for his rookie year he was pretty mediocre in AAA in the following 3 years. And for a highwalk guy like Bellhorn PAs are probably more useful than ABs
----
"The rest of the time he hit around .260 with Ks in 30% or so of his ABs but also showed good power and a good eye. That does not scream "solid full time player" to me."
It should, since that's exactly what he did last season. "
Thats what he did in TRIPLE A. I wasnt denying that he might be a fine AAA 2b man.
No, that's what he did LAST SEASON, in the MAJOR LEAGUES. He hit .264, K'ed in 34% of his at bats, but showed good power (17 HR) and a good eye (88 BB). And he was most certainly, at least, a "solid full time player".
And this guy knows a thing or two about fine AAA second basemen. He is Mike Mordecai's number one fan, afterall.
How did that turn out again?
Not saying it was necessarily the case with Bellhorn, but frequently a team will win despite a player, not because of him.
He hit .258/.374/.512 in 2002 in 529 PAs, then hit .209/.341/.317 the next season in 173 before being dumped. A lot of people, myself included, decried the fact that the Cubs were "solving" the Bellhorn problem with worse alternatives, but fact is, he was not performing.
I'm not surprised to see him having a bad season, but I also would not be surprised to see him repeat 2002 or 2004 next season.
I would be stunned if he repeats 2002, he was unbelievable that year. I think it's time to consider that the man is Reggie Sanders at second. I forget if Sanders is good in odd years or even, but Bellhorn may have the "successful every other year" thing too.
Yes i wasnt denying that..,i am saying that it isnt common for a guy who has a mediocre track record to be a good full time player. Im not saying he cant have a nice year. Do you really think .264/.373/.444 or .258/.374/.512 are that representitive of his true abilities considering his career on the whole? They are at the top of the range he can be expected to producce. Bellhorn is a guy with a cult following that considers him an All-Star 2nd baseman simply because he draws walks despite the fact that hes not all that good in general. Hes a 31 year old with TWO good big league years. Im DEFINATELY not saying drawing walking is a bad thing. Its (obviously) a good thing, its the next best thing to a single. But to say that becuase he can do that and hit the occasional extrabase hit means hes the elite guy youre making him out to be is ludicrous.
Reggies actually been pretty solid for a few years now. Plus Reggie has more raw talent and the profile of a guy who will be good at later ages so its less surprising that hes been able to keep it up. I dont know if this has been studyied but guys that alternate good and bad years tend to wind up being more bad than good in the futureit seems. (DOug M altnernated good and bad years for a little bit)
His 2002 especially wasn't as dramatic as the other years (especially at the end of the 90s), but he's still maintained the up-down phenomenon (at least per EQA), which is awesome. He was pretty mediocre in 2004, but 03 and 05, he's been nasty.
BPRo compares his offense to the average batter, and his fielding to the average 2B. If you believe in positional adjustments, then BPro's numbers have him a fair bit above average.
Yeah, I know, I just thought it was funny, despite not being accurate. Way to look at the numbers and present them accurately.
Bellhorn is a guy with a cult following that considers him an All-Star 2nd baseman simply because he draws walks despite the fact that hes not all that good in general.
Yes, it's clearly only because he draws walks. Not because he's a second base who can also hit for power.
Like it or not, he definitely should have been an All-Star last season. I'm not sure about '02, and I don't really care to look it up, but I wouldn't be surprised if he should have been an All-Star then also.
Bellhorn at home, '04: .283/.380/.494
Bellhorn at home, '05: .168/.247/.307
Mystifying. His road splits this year are actually better than his road splits from last year.
Bellhorn's MLE lwts plus (lwts divided by major league average lwts) in the minors from 96 to 01 were an average of 95 (that is 95% of an average major league batter). That's a nice number for a second baseman and also right in line with his major league numbers. All of the numbers indicate that he is a nice major league second baseman. If you don't believe UZR and you think he is a below average 2B'man, he is still a decent overall player. If you believe UZR, and believe he is an above-average 2B, he is a very nice overall player. Who cares about walks, K's, power, etc. Lwts is lwts, no matter how you want to spin it. Also who cares about the juxtaposition of his yearly stats. Every year is simply a sample of a player's true ability. Once you start with, "Well, in year X he did this, and in year Y he did that," you can justify just about any position you want (player is good, bad, in between, etc.).
As has been proven, the only thing that counts is a large sample of a player's performance, most-recent performance weighted a little more than most distant. Any other "patterns" we see in a player's year to year stats can only be chalked up to fluctuation (whether they are or they aren't), injuries being somewhat of an exception of course...
Who is "O-dawg"? Orlando Cabrera? He is +10 in UZR at the ASB, which is right in line with his projection (+6).
I think he means Orlando Hudson.
Mark Bellhorn may have been booed out of Boston, but there were countless fans who will never forget what he did to help them win the World Series in 2004. When Juliana Hatfield and The Gentlemen played The Paradise in Boston on Saturday night, Juliana put a picture of Bellhorn on stage -- in tribute.
Sometimes I wish we had a policer who would take notes on some of the most smug statements here, and then check on them a few months later.
Love the site, love SABRmetrics, started buying Bill James books 20 years ago. But nobody has all the answers, ya know?
Seems he gets to a lot of balls I don't expect him too, though his errors are alarmingly high as well!
Thanks if you can.
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