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1. DCW3 Posted: December 12, 2004 at 08:04 AM (#1014682)I know that's in Fenway, but that's still higher than I'd expect.
That projection has Renteria putting up a .348 H/BIP. Last year he was pretty bad despite putting up a .317 H/BIP. He did hit .348 on BIP's in 2003, but in 2002 he had a .325.
Basically, he'd have to hit .324/.381/.467 to justify this kind of contract.
I'd be shocked if he hit better than .300/.356/.443.
For 10M/y, you need more than a .799 OPS...
As another data point, Marcel projects him for a 109 OPS+, which for Renteria in Fenway would probably look something like .318/.373/.453. So I guess it's not that hard to believe.
From rotoworld.
Despite reports this afternoon that a deal was nearly done, the Red Sox and Edgar Renteria never even opened negotiations until this evening, according to ESPN's Peter Gammons.
Boston GM Theo Epstein is saying the same thing. Gammons indicated that the Red Sox would sign Renteria for $38 million over four years as long as it left them enough money to finalize deals with Pedro Martinez and Jason Varitek. It could become clear tomorrow exactly what is going happen with the Red Sox.
from rotoworld
Pedro Martinez still wants another $1 million per year beyond the $38 million-$40 million deal the Red Sox have on the table.
The Red Sox guaranteed Martinez a third year on Friday, so a little money shouldn't stand in the way of a contract. Ideally, the Red Sox could get a deal finalized soon. If the Cardinals decide they're out of it with Edgar Renteria, they likely will make Martinez an offer. Dec. 12 - 2:11 am et
Source: Boston Herald
mgl, does you mysterious, we-can't-be-told which MLB team allow you to give us Renteria's UZR numbers? Because maybe the Red Sox have some defensive numbers on Renteria that justify this.
of course that should be "your." Duh.
FOUR YEARS of big money for a 30 year old SS? C'mon. They can't possibly have already given up on Hanley have they?
The rumour i've heard is Hanley and Arroyo for Hudson. If that happens, I'd cream my pants, but the head says unless a long-term deal is done with Hudson, the Sox will have lost overal.
Renteria + 1 year of Hudson is probably not better than 6 years of Hanley, probably 3 years of Arroyo, and what, 400 gabillion dollars?
All off season we have talked about Hanley in 2006, and now it is off the table, weird.
Err, he's not 30.
And goddammit, just give Pedro 3/$42 or whatever. He's worth it.
Great, he must be older than 30.
F!@#$
F!@#$
You're probably just messing with me, but he's 29.
I posted that somewhere before, that it was not official. Can't remember where, the source was from rotoworld.
Apparently they only got together yesterday, which is pretty ####### quick to nut out a deal.
Guess we'll wait and see
Lovely. So he "might" degenerate one year slower.
Fan-#######-tastic.
Including Kim would even up the salaries of Dave Roberts and Jay Payton, with the Red Sox probably paying the rest of what's left of Kim's deal. Ramon Vazquez is also rumored to be going to Boston. Dec. 12 - 3:20 am et
Interesting....
Payton blew nuts last year, but has a career 770 OPS. Decent player.
Renteria is a good player. But not a 10 million a year player. NO way no how.
Not a shot against you, but Byun Hyun Kim as a starter, to quote the great Jon Stewart... BLOWS.
Well I never got to watch him start much partly cause he hasn't started much, but his number in his 15 starts in the last few season don't "blow" and without and with a trade likely to happen I'd guess the padres give him a shot in the rotation.
I'm not sure Hudson is that good a bet to be much better than Arroyo next year. Tim Hudson's DIPS was 3.60 this year and Arroyo's was 3.88. Arroyo's two previous years, adjusting for league and competition, were a little better so he's a good bet to at least remain in the 3.80-3.90 range. He's cheap for a couple more years as a super-2 and hasn't had the health problems that Hudson has struggled with the last couple seasons. If Arroyo is given his 35 starts and not yanked in and out of the rotation, he's a decent bet for 200 innings of high-3's ERA. He also doesn't allow as many BIPs as Hudson so he won't be hurt as much by the Sox defense. He's also a flyball pitcher, so the poor fielding quality of the sox infield is less likely to adversely effect him.
The next year of Hudson for the next 3 years of Arroyo would be a steal for Beane in terms of straight-up value, and I'd guess that the money would come close to a wash. If he gets a highly coveted SS prospect he can flip or plug into 2B, all the better.
I really don't think the sox make that deal.
BTW, the deal would only be for the next year of Hudson. I don't think you can ascribe more value to a trade because of an extension signed after the trade was finalized. Presumably the team could have signed the player for the same price off of the free market at the cost of a draft pick. Oakland wouldn't be trading Hudson if he were willing to sign a substantially below-market extension.
You could be right, looks like Hudson is off to the Dodgers, from rotoworld;
It's expected to be announced Sunday that the Dodgers will acquire Tim Hudson from Oakland in exchange for Edwin Jackson and Antonio Perez.
Roberts could play CF. Bpro has him as at least average there.
He had a .274 EQA for the dodgers last year as well. That's pretty good for a CF.
If you think Kim can start, than you need a reality check.
Not a shot against you, but Byun Hyun Kim as a starter, to quote the great Jon Stewart... BLOWS.
A 3.77 ERA in 15 starts. Egad, what a horrible pitcher. Whatever in the world should we do with such a horrible pitcher? I know, I will gouge my eyes out with a ball point pen rather than watch such a horrible, horrible pitcher. Why won't anyone think of the children?
Or, you know, more seriously... Kim averaged about 7 WARP3/year for his age 22-24 seasons. The other pitchers who have done that currently in baseball?
Pedro? nope, 5.3
Santana? Nope, 3.9
Prior? Nope, 6.3 (2 years)
Hudson? Nope, 6.4 (2 years)
Mulder? Nope, 6.3
Mussina? Nope, 6.3
Jeff Weaver? Nope, 6.0
Zito -- 7.4
Pettitte -- 7.6 (2 years)
Oswalt -- 7.7 (2 years)
Clemens -- 9.3
That's a pretty elite class that Kim is in. He lost this year to injury, and for some inexplicable reason people can't separate his performance from the fact that he's 1) short 2) weird, and 3) he flipped off a bunch of ass holes who were boing him for Embree's blown save.
Wherever he ends up next year, I have little doubt that he will perform very well, in whatever roll he's in. Kim is an enormously talented pitcher and if he were 6'4" and white I doubt he ever would have been traded
Buddy, I AM Asian. You're preaching to the choir.
2000 - +8
2001 - -1
2002 - +6
2003 - +9
2004 - +12
You could be right, looks like Hudson is off to the Dodgers, from rotoworld;
It's expected to be announced Sunday that the Dodgers will acquire Tim Hudson from Oakland in exchange for Edwin Jackson and Antonio Perez.
Edwin Jackson? He was pretty wretched this year in AAA. He went down with back and forearm problems this season. Scouting reports say his delivery isn't max effort, but how many 21 year-olds get back injuries from a non max-effort delivery?
Anyway, depending on the forearm injury the DL time may not be a warning sign. Sometimes forearm stiffness problems can be indicative of elbow problems, though. (Bobby Howry in 2003 was first diagnosed with forearm stiffness and spasms, and eventually he had elbow surgery, though I don't think it was actually TJ)... Jackson could be their new closer/relief ace this year, though, as apparently his biggest problem is endurance.
BA says this about him:
Jackson's pure stuff is still unquestioned. When he was 100 percent, he pitched at 93-97 mph with his fastball and showed a nasty slider. He developed so rapidly a year ago that he's still learning how to pitch. He gets into trouble when his fastball and slider flatten out and he leaves them up in the zone.
I really like Antonio Perez. He's been kicking around for a while, but a .296/.379/.511, even in the PCL, is pretty good for a 24 year-old 2Bman. He could probably start in Oakland this year and they wouldn't be worse off for it.
One note, though -- for some reason BA includes the "feel" that pitchers have for pitching, meaning pitch selection and location, from what I can tell. some teams draft for "pitchability" which I take to mean not what a pitcher has, but what he can do with it. Why would this matter at the major league level? It's one thing to have a good idea for how to use your stuff to fool A-ball hitters or college players, but why would it matter at the big league level where you have a staff dedicated to studying video to determine the optimal pitch selection for each hitter a pitcher would face? Basically, why on earth would you let a pitcher choose which pitch to throw when, when you can pick someone else solely for his ability to do this and have him work with all of the pitchers to develop plans?
(This is why I don't think catcher's ERA will ever be a meaningful stat -- pitchers probably don't change their preparation routine or their plan for a given lineup based on who is catching. If the starting catcher normally had input then he'd have input for the planning session. If not, then not.)...
He he can but unless they see him as The Leadoff Guy I doubt they keep him there. KT and Boch sometimes seem to get lost in the idea of the "ideal" player at a postion of need, and CF looks to be one right now.
As long as Kim is better then the post Valdez 5th starters them he'll be worth Payton or Vazquez.
2000 - +8
2001 - -1
2002 - +6
2003 - +9
2004 - +12
Those numbers are pretty good. I just don't think they justify the big $$$
Such things are common with the injury he sustained this year. Sox brass has been pretty quiet about it, but it sounds like a shoulder problem stemming from a problem in his offseason workout routine. He had to shut everything down and start over, and he spent most of the season trying to build up arm strength in AAA. He wasn't "injured" anymore, but he was weak. He was approaching his prior velocity by the end of the season, FWIW. Before you go and firesale him, though, see if you can find someone who averaged 7 WARP3 over their age 22-24 seasons, missed a year due to injury, and didn't still end up a very effective pitcher after that. I don't think you'll find one, at least not one who had his age 24 season in the last 20 years. Welcome to the age of modern medicine.
Buddy, I AM Asian. You're preaching to the choir.
Didn't mean to imply that you were being racist. There were two "hot topics" in Boston after the 2003 ALCS, though -- 1) fire grady and 2) trade Kim. At the same time that people were ecstatic over the possibility of signing Foulke (7.1 WARP3 avg over the previous 3 years) they couldn't wait to run Kim out the door, and were furious when the sox didn't nontender him. I'm convinced that the boston fan base as a whole, perhaps subliminally, had a racial bias against Kim. Otherwise, I don't see how they could have wanted him out of town.
Of course, part of the problem could be the sports media (presumably being racist) in choosing how to spin stories. For some reason, though, Kim got a lot of flak that shouldn't have gone his way over his performances and game outcomes. IIRC, he got blamed for a game the sox lost to the yankees when he induced a double-play ball in the bottom of the 9th with 1 out in a tie game in yankee stadium and Todd Walker failed to make an out because, somehow, he stepped on his glove when trying to make the play. After seeing that, and having the talking heads blame Kim for "blowing a game" that was so egregiously blown by someone else that I can't see any reason other than racism for it.
Here's the game.
Yeah. Kim dragged a team with a 4.83 bullpen ERA kicking and screaming into the playoffs, what a non-clutch player... or something.
If you think Kim has a problem with big situations you're an idiot. He threw something around 60 pitches in game 4 and then Brenley brought him back in game 5 the next night. Those blown saves weren't a "Kim problem" they were a "Brenley problem," unless you think Joe Nathan and Jason Insringhausen are now unable to get saves in crucial situations, of course.
He definitely was injured -- he was placed on the DL. He was ineffective when he returned due to weakness, then optioned down to regain armstrength. If he is fully healthy, he's probably a better bet next year than any 26 year-old not named Johan Santana.
Rather, he's as good a bet next year as Pedro and Nomar were in 2002. He's coming off a season lost to injury. If he'd been ineffective without an underlying injury there'd be a much greater cause for concern. If he returns healthy, he's probably at least a 6 WARP3 reliever, and possibly an 8 WARP3 reliever (he was his last full season in relief, in 2002).
FWIW, also, in 2003 he was 20 Runs above replacement in 7 starts for ARI, which in 35 starts would translate to 100 PRAR, about 10 WARP3. Santana was 110 PRAR this year. RJ was 117. A healthy Kim is going to be a very pleasant surprise for whoever ends up with him this year. I hope the sox keep him, but I'm not sure that's possible given the general animosity of the Boston fanbase towards the guy.
I thought he was great in 2003, but it didn't help that he was an a-hole.
You think Boston fans would run a guy with a "good image" like Ichiro out of town? I don't think so.
I'm still waiting for the "charismatic Asian star" to come along. You know, the Asian David Ortiz. Ichiro is too "disciplined" and can seem distant (but he does have a good overall image), Big Matsui is too blue collar to be charming, and Kazuo isn't good enough to be liked.
You think Boston fans would run a guy with a "good image" like Ichiro out of town? I don't think so.
I thought the media blamed him for game events that were not his doing. The public accepted the media's story and booed him when he was introduced at his first home playoff game after he had gotten the team into the playoffs. His reaction wasn't ideal, but Joe Fan wanted Kim out of town before he flipped off the crowd. The "bird-flipping" gave the talking heads an excuse to push that agenda, though they were complaining about Kim as he was resurrecting the bullpen as well. That was the worst treatment I'd ever seen a key player on a championship caliber team receive and as best as I could tell there was no motivation behind it other than racism.
I know you're funnin', but it's actually an interesting situation.
The Red Sox' moves thus far suggest they're going to not only maintain last year's team record payroll - which was generally reported as a one-year spike - but they'll be going over the luxury tax again, somewhere in the $140M range.
And that changes how you evaluate moves like the Renteria signing. If Theo's got something like $40-50M to spend, and only a few roster spots to fill, it makes sense to overpay a bit for very good players like Pedro, Renteria and Varitek. I'm not sure what level of overpaying becomes acceptable given that arithmetic - I'm doubtful about Varitek's contract demands being justifiable, and I'm not so sure about Renteria either.
We've done nothing BUT complain about how Renteria isn't worth the money and we'd rather see us develop a home-grown talent like Hanley.
I don't think this signing - if/when it happens - is such a problem for Hanley. Ramirez is a year away, so it's not a 2005 issue.
So long as the Renteria contract is a good one, and Hanley looks to be ready some time in 2006, that'll simply give the Red Sox two valuable shortstops, who can share time, play some at other positions, or be traded. More good players than you need is a good thing, not a bad one.
I'll have you know that I don't complain about the Yankees buying players. If they have the resources to do so, then they should use them.
But using them on Jaret Wright and Tony Womack...still funny stuff.
Wait, don't they usually lie to make themselves younger?
Then you're not a hypocrite, are you? And therefore I wasn't addressing you.
Thought you were just making a blanket statement about Red Sox fans.
A similar thing happened with Adrian Beltre, IIRC.
Not if they're 15, ridiculously good, and don't want to have to wait another year to get that signing bonus.
That's a nice bit of news on Renteria. One year younger makes 4/40 that little bit more sensible.
Wait, don't they usually lie to make themselves younger?
Usually, but I would guess Renteria wanted to sign a conract so he bluffed his age so that he could sign it a year early
Any other questions you need answered in triplicate?
Johnny Damon? Too bi-racial (note that I'm accusing you of anything)? Too Jesus?
Actually, I wasn't even adressing Red Sox fans. Rather, we're seeing the Red Sox doing exactly what the Yankees did in the late 90's and early 00's, but we're not seeing the same outrage from fans as we did then.
I would ask why I'm so pathetic, but we got that taken care of in the Lounge, so I think I'm set.
Wait... I just thought of something.
Johnny Damon officially owns Theo Epstein, because he is THE KING OF THE JEWS!
SO in otherwords, too Jewish to be an Asian superstar.
I'm starting to think this isn't true... money is a black hole this offseason. There is nothing efficient.
Yes, if they're an idiot.
Wasn't "feel" what everyone called it when Maddux took an 88MPH fastball and a nice changeup and turned it into 4 Cy Youngs? Isn't this why Greinke has such potential? I'm going to give some weight to what the BA guys are saying.
It's a time honored tradition, dating back to the 19th century to say your older to get something you want, be it cheap beer or a baseball contract.
My soon to be biographical subject, Tacks Latimer did the same thing.
BTW, I thought the Sox were looking at an inexpensive stopgap to fill the 6 hole until Hanley Ramirez was available.
The length of the contracts is as important as the average salary. You don't want to get stuck with 8 year deals @$15 mil+ a year where a star player regresses to just being average after 2 years.
Maybe this deal along with the ones for Pedro, Tek and Wells is overpaying for old or at least aging players but why not play for this year instead of building for the future? The Red Sox are certainly in the Win Now portion of the success cycle. There's a better chance of repeating with ER @ SS instead of going with Pokey or Larkin or any of the other 1-2 year guys people have talked about. Maybe these deals mean the team will stink in 2008 but I'd rather take that risk than come up short this year because we want to have room for a prospect in 2006.
That's been "the word" for three or four years now. It's strange that Renteria hasn't come out and made it official.
So you're comfortable with a projection that has Renteria hitting .350 on balls in play?
Wasn't "feel" what everyone called it when Maddux took an 88MPH fastball and a nice changeup and turned it into 4 Cy Youngs? Isn't this why Greinke has such potential? I'm going to give some weight to what the BA guys are saying.
I thought Maddux had great control, a great changeup, and Mazzone ... Anyway, my point is that teams can and should pay someone to do nothing but game hitters. Rather, if you were the managing partner of a law firm, would you let the first year associates decide your case strategy? A front office should be a concentrator of baseball knowledge, and should have dozens of members more knowledgeable than anyone on the field. If pitchers do choose when to throw which pitches, btw, and they don't game every hitter with an expert and a box full of tape on each hitter, then that's a huge inefficiency to be exploited.
Why? He's only topped .850 once (2003). And he's cleared .770 only one other time (.803 in 2002). I'm not sure that expecting that big a boast from Fenway is reasonable.
I have my moments.
Right, and the lineup he's coming from was filled with a bucnh of stiffs....
Valid point, but recall that Renteria often hit ahead of Matheny last year. However he was also ahead of Sanders, a decent hitter, much of the time, and I don't really agree with kevin that being in this lineup will necessarily help ER (although Fenway and the AL should) but the context is different. A lot of people got on TLR's case about leading off Womack (although the Cardinals' record shut a lot of that off by July) but Renteria has said several times he doesn't like leading off, and of course he will not have to in Boston.
I agree that it is too many years and too much money, but if you look at the Red Sox overall situation and current personnel, I think it is a good move. They can worry about Hanley Ramirez when he shows he's ready. I thought it possible that Epstein might use the title to back off and re-tool--the "grace period" theory--but instead he's pushing for more, as is DePodesta in LA.
Having added Wells, I think the Red Sox should consider letting Martinez go to StL and getting Clement or Perez. Obviously, those guys are not quite as good as Martinez, even now, but Wells/Schilling/Martinez is a little too much age/durability concern in one rotation, in spite of their collective pitching talent.
For the Cardinals, with TLR you are always playing for right now. I think they should get Valentin and Martinez and go for it all one more time.
As far as Mahnken's comment, the Red Sox and Yankees--and many of their fans--have just been two sides of the same coin in many ways for awhile. People are just saying it more now. At the moment, the Red Sox are being run more intelligently, obviously. But a lot of the rest of it is the same.
Right. So what exactly was his injury? And why do we think it is better? Kim was only put on the DL because he couldn't pitch anymore, and he was only activated because they would have had to release him otherwise. There was no injury, there was no cure, and he has no future.
Renteria probably won't match his 2003 season, especially if his back problems recur. Renteria's tendency to shoot the ball to RF doesn't seem to fit Fenway very well.
I think all the talk about payrolls and budgets is regurgitated nonsense, but I really didn't want the Cards to throw big money on Edgar Renteria. There are a lot better ways to invest $10 million per season.
You're forgetting that there is a bigger issue than league effects in play, specifically the park effects at Las Vegas. Perez's MLE last year per Prospectus was .233, which would have put Perez in the running as the worst regular 2B in the big leagues last year.
No. The Cardinals' pitchers are a bunch of stiffs compared to the Red Sox.
Put it this way: if you flipped the pitching staffs, the Cardinals' hitters would have looked pretty damned imposing facing Morris, Williams, et al., and the Sox hitters would have had a tougher time against Schilling, Pedro & company.
You were right in seeing the Sox would kill 'em early in Game 1, kevin. Don't forget the fundamental reason for that, though: the massive inability of the Cardinal pitchers to miss the Sox bats. Pitching was the difference.
So, what were their payrolls? In 2004, the Mariners had a $79 million payroll IIRC what I read at U.S.S. Mariner and they've announced an intended payroll of $99 million in 2005. The Sox spent around $130 million in 2004 and will spend more than that in 2005. The Mariners don't have nearly the same commitment to winning that the Sox have. I'd love to know the figures for the Cubs, Angels and Dodgers.
Rather than overpay for Varitek, wouldn't it make sense for the Sox to target AJ in a trade? He's got his flaws (low walk rate) and can be a pain in the ass sometimes. But his arbitration price tag wouldn't be astronomical. Platoon him with Mirabelli, and Boston has a decent catching solution. The platoon might even rival Varitek's production in 2005 and doesn't subject them to the risks of signing a 33 year-old catcher to a 4 or 5 year deal.
Boston doesn't need an All Star catcher, just competent defense and league-average offense. Pierzynski/Mirabelli gives them that and allows them to use Varitek's money on retaining Martinez and/or bringing in Renteria.
What do the Red Sox fans out there think?
Varitek's had two of his best three years under this system, so maybe there's something to it.
I don't think so. They ahve been the most succesful franchise over that time period.
If success is WS, then the following teams have won WS since Jeter signed his deal
NYY
AZ
ANA
FLA
BOS
Now, I believe Diamondbacks are the only one of those teams to even win their division. The Yankees have won their division every one of those years.
The only other team that can make that claim is Atlanta, they won 0 pennants since the Jeter deal. The Yankees won 3 in that time frame. Their is a 7 way tie for 2nd place, with 1.
I believe the Yankees also have the best regular season winning percentage.
Now, I am sure someone else wins the Beane count or some such nonsense.
Someone tell that to Steinbrenner before he ups the payroll over $200 million.
Ding dong, Matheny's gone!
http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/stories.nsf/cardinals/story/6D216C15D5DE05BD86256F69001E0194?OpenDocument&Headline=Cardinals+still+in+running+for+Renteria
Thank god there are GMs who overvalue Matheny's defense even more than Jocketty.
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