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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, December 06, 2006

Red Sox - Signed Drew, Lugo

Boston Red Sox - Signed OF J.D. Drew to a 5-year contract worth $70 million; signed SS Julio Lugo to a 4-year contract worth $36 million.

It’s hard to say exactly how both these contracts will affect the team in the long run, as it depends on what the Sox do with Manny.  I’m guessing that they don’t trade Manny.  Drew is a pretty good centerfielder, certainly a lot better than Crisp or Pena are out there, but I’m a little worried about Drew out there because while he’s more durable than he used to be, he’s still not Ripken and I think I’d want to keep him out of the higher-impact position, all things considered.  $14 million for Drew actually seems like one of the best top free agent deals this offseason, which is kind of scary in itself.  For health, I’d put my money on Carlos Lee, but I’d rather have Drew since he’s more likely to be actually good.  And you can insure catastrophic injuries while you can’t insure a player turning into the Goodyear Blimp, so I’ll take J.D. over El Gastrónomo.  ZiPS is really sour on Drew for some reason - probably the decline in home runs.

Lugo’s not a superstar but again, he’s preferable to the other players signed this offseason to similar deals.  I like Pedroia, but he’s not going to play both infield positions for the team.  Another $9 million is a decent chunk to bite, even on a big-market team, but this is what you risk when you trade off some of your depth.  Regardless, a lineup that has Lugo and Pedroia as the weak spots is a really nice lineup and the Sox will go into 2007 without any black holes in the lineup (the rotation being another story).

2007 ZiPS Projections
———————————————————————————————————
Player     AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB   BA   OBP   SLG
———————————————————————————————————
Drew       436 74 116 30 3 15 74 80 97   4 .266 .383 .452
Lugo       545 84 159 36 3   7 57 50 113 26 .292 .355 .407

 

 

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 06, 2006 at 01:58 PM | 45 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Marc Sully's not booin'. He's Youkin'. Posted: December 06, 2006 at 03:28 PM (#2252705)
the Sox will go into 2007 without any black holes in the lineup (the rotation being another story).


Help me out with the black hole: Matsuzaka, Schilling, Beckett, Wakefield, Papelbon

I see plenty of risk there, but "black holes?"
   2. TomH Posted: December 06, 2006 at 03:35 PM (#2252714)
risk realized may = black hole if 6th and 7th SP are weally bad. And that assumes Matsuzaka actually comes. Still, potential for much goodness is there. What will the cheap tickets cost in Fenway this year? And are there any actually for sale?
   3. Addicted To Glove Posted: December 06, 2006 at 03:47 PM (#2252726)
With what we hear about Lester, there's a good chance that your 6th starter is Lester, even assuming if he's not ready until May because he's got to "rehab". You'd have to get pretty unlucky for one of those five to break down in April.
   4. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: December 06, 2006 at 03:54 PM (#2252739)
I know Lester is making a miraculous recovery and is coming to ST, but I'm not sure he can be counted on at all this year for anything. The dude just had cancer, and he's still not totally out of the woods yet. At this point, Boston could use Tavarez or DiNardo as a 6th starter if necessary. Not great options, but maybe good for a 85-90 ERA+ or so, which is all you could really expect from a 6th starter.
   5. Dr. Vaux Posted: December 06, 2006 at 03:56 PM (#2252743)
Beckett is crap till he proves he's not. Matsusaka might not come. Schilling could turn to #### at any time, at his age. Papelbon's arm might not hold up as a starter. Wakefield could have one of his bad years. More than one of those things could happen. They could all happen. Of course, every team's rotation has that sort of uncertainty; it's the nature of pitching.
   6. Guapo Posted: December 06, 2006 at 03:56 PM (#2252744)
<url=http://www.qwizx.com/gssfx/usa/tpirhorns.wav>The Price is Wrong</url>
   7. Juan V Posted: December 06, 2006 at 04:01 PM (#2252751)
PECOTA thinks .286/.395/.472 for Drew. Not exactly too hot either.

Still, it´s both him and Lugo, for about the same yearly money Houston is paying Carlos Lee. Not too bad.
   8. 1k5v3L Posted: December 06, 2006 at 04:08 PM (#2252761)
I'd rather have Carlos Quentin over JD Drew over the next 5 years.
   9. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: December 06, 2006 at 04:10 PM (#2252763)
I'd rather have Albert Pujols than Carlos Quentin. This is a fun game.
   10. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: December 06, 2006 at 04:10 PM (#2252764)
Boy, the projection systems just hate Drew. PECOTA and ZiPS has him at a collective: .275/.385/.461 with 14 or 15 HRs in 420 ABs. If that his real line, he's going to get slaughtered in Boston
   11. sasquatch83 Posted: December 06, 2006 at 04:11 PM (#2252765)
PECOTA thinks .286/.395/.472 for Drew. Not exactly too hot either.

What's wrong with getting that from your center fielder? Isn't that better than what Johnny Damon did last year?

Heck, aside from the extra year, which is apparently contingent to some degree on performance, aren't the two deals pretty similar? If Drew can really play center, which I believe he can, I'd rather have him than Damon.
   12. sasquatch83 Posted: December 06, 2006 at 04:11 PM (#2252766)
PECOTA thinks .286/.395/.472 for Drew. Not exactly too hot either.

What's wrong with getting that from your center fielder? Isn't that better than what Johnny Damon did last year?

Heck, aside from the extra year, which is apparently contingent to some degree on performance, aren't the two deals pretty similar? If Drew can really play center, which I believe he can, I'd rather have him than Damon.
   13. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 06, 2006 at 04:12 PM (#2252767)
Still, it´s both him and Lugo, for about the same yearly money Houston is paying Carlos Lee. Not too bad.
Am I missing something? Lee's making about $17M per season. Lugo and Drew combine to $23M per season. I like Lugo and Drew much better at that price - though it's immaterial for Houston, who have The Wizard of Everett - but it's a pretty big gap.

-Interesting how little love there is for Drew in the projection systems, despite the general stathead appreciation of the guy.

-The Red Sox' black hole is in the bullpen, not the rotation.
   14. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 06, 2006 at 04:13 PM (#2252768)
Drew's gonna be playing right field, I'm pretty sure. Wily Mo will play against lefties and take other spot starts, and Coco will remain in center.
   15. Juan V Posted: December 06, 2006 at 04:23 PM (#2252781)
Am I missing something? Lee's making about $17M per season. Lugo and Drew combine to $23M per season.


Nope. I did. I meant total commitment.
   16. AlexIsADirtySanchez Posted: December 06, 2006 at 04:53 PM (#2252823)
Are you going to take a look at the Carpenter re-up?
   17. AROM Posted: December 06, 2006 at 05:04 PM (#2252836)
-Interesting how little love there is for Drew in the projection systems, despite the general stathead appreciation of the guy.

The Chone has him at .286/.405/.506, but the triple crown stats say .286/19/73 in 431 AB.

Compare that to Lee, .288/31/99 looks much better. But Drew beats him 28-14 in park adjust LWTS per 600 PA.
   18. TVerik, the gum-snappin' hairdresser Posted: December 06, 2006 at 05:16 PM (#2252850)
I hesitate to speak badly about the cancer-stricken, but Lester, even completely healthy, would be less than a sure thing in the rotation all year.
   19. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: December 06, 2006 at 05:30 PM (#2252867)
But Drew beats him 28-14 in park adjust LWTS per 600 PA.


What do you have their LWTS at for projected PA?
   20. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 06, 2006 at 05:31 PM (#2252870)
Are you going to take a look at the Carpenter re-up?

Yeah, just behind at the moment.
   21. HowardMegdal Posted: December 06, 2006 at 05:45 PM (#2252881)
"Yeah, just behind at the moment."

What is this, Dan, your busy season? We demand a Burgos ZIPS projection within the hour! Or else we might have to take our business to another comprehensive, yet free source!
   22. Stately, Plump Buck Mulligan Posted: December 06, 2006 at 06:03 PM (#2252917)
"If he plays a full season, the Red sox are going to be extremely tough."

Drew can play 162 games, but until the Red Sox get a GM who has some sort of a clue about how to obtain good pitching, I'm not going to worry too much about them.
   23. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: December 06, 2006 at 06:03 PM (#2252918)
Lee = 100m
Drew + Lugo = 106m
   24. RobertMachemer Posted: December 06, 2006 at 08:40 PM (#2253114)
C:  Varitek   9.0
1B
Youkilis  minimum+
2BPedroia   minimum
SS
Lugo      9.0?
3BLowell    8.0
LF
Ramirez  18.0
CF
Crisp     4.5
RF
Drew     14.0?
DHOrtiz    12.5

C
:  Kotteras  minimum
UT
Cora      1.5?
UTHinske    2.5?
UTPena      2-3?
UT?

SPSchilling 13.0
SP
:
SPPapelbon   minimum+
SPBeckett    8.0
SP
Wakefield  4.0

RP
Timlin     2.8
RP
Delcarmen  minimum
RP
Tavarez    3.1
RP
Okajima    1.25?
RP:
RP:
RP?
DLClement    9.5 


Offhand, that brings the Sox up to about $126 million, give or take a couple million. The bullpen is still weak (to put it mildly!) and they're still missing a starter, but the field-players part of the roster is mostly settled, barring some trades.
   25. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: December 06, 2006 at 08:54 PM (#2253145)

That's not miraculous. That's what was expected.


You're right. I shouldn't have said miraculous. I just wanted to get across that Lester is far from a sure thing, and that the chemo may have weakened him to a point where he just needs to get his strength back up. Since he's only 23, I don't think a little more seasoning in the minors would hurt, either.
   26. AROM Posted: December 06, 2006 at 08:56 PM (#2253148)
What do you have their LWTS at for projected PA?

Drew, 517 PA +24
Lee 640 PA, +15

Then there's an 8 run or so difference in defense, so even missing his time for injury to be named later, Drew beats Lee by 15-20 runs.
   27. Darren Posted: December 06, 2006 at 09:00 PM (#2253157)
I've decided that CHONE is the bestest projection system ever!

One thing about the other projections. They seem to be hurt badly by his drop in power, but I think a lot of that was the wrist injury. His power jumped a bunch in the 2nd half, and I expect it to stay a bit higher than he showed last year. Maybe that's a bit too optimistic but CHONE agrees with me!
   28. AROM Posted: December 06, 2006 at 09:01 PM (#2253159)
Is Lugo worth 9 million? I sure wouldn't want him for that, but considering the alternatives (like the guy who signed with Boston's rival for second place) he'll be worth every penny.
   29. Darren Posted: December 06, 2006 at 09:05 PM (#2253166)
AROM, what's Matsuzaka's projection? Plleeasse.
   30. Darren Posted: December 06, 2006 at 09:06 PM (#2253168)
Doesn't MORP put Lugo (4-5 WARP1) at around $10 mil/year?
   31. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: December 06, 2006 at 09:10 PM (#2253176)
That's a somewhat better projection than I expected for Lugo and much worse than I expected for Drew/
   32. AROM Posted: December 06, 2006 at 09:10 PM (#2253178)
I've decided that CHONE is the bestest projection system ever!

Thanks, but you might want to check its accuracy vs the others on my blog. They are all pretty close, but it wasn't the tops last year. Next year? We'll see.

Dan, I'm confused how you have Drew at a .266 BA. He's hit under .280 only 2X in his career, his rookie year and then a bad season 5 years ago. He's moving to one of the best ballparks for batting average, especially for a lefty hitter.

Is it age? Poor comparables? An ALE? (American League Equivalancy - a must for last year's stats at least.)
   33. Darren Posted: December 06, 2006 at 09:20 PM (#2253196)
Thanks, but you might want to check its accuracy vs the others on my blog.

BBBBBooorrrrriiinnngggg. I'd rather just pick and choose the projections I like.
   34. bibigon Posted: December 06, 2006 at 09:53 PM (#2253254)
The Chone has him at .286/.405/.506, but the triple crown stats say .286/19/73 in 431 AB.


Why the disparity? That's unusual for computerized projection systems...
   35. The Original SJ Posted: December 06, 2006 at 10:09 PM (#2253277)
Regardless, a lineup that has Lugo and Pedroia as the weak spots is a really nice lineup and the Sox will go into 2007 without any black holes in the lineup

How could your forget about Pedroia when you mentioned him earlier in the sentence?
   36. AROM Posted: December 06, 2006 at 10:46 PM (#2253330)
Why the disparity? That's unusual for computerized projection systems...

I don't know what you're asking. Click on my homepage to see the full projection line. Drew's triple crown stats are 'blah' because he doesn't play enough to pile up HR and RBI, and his obp/slg stats are very good because he gets much of his value from walks.
   37. rLr Is King Of The Romans And Above Grammar Posted: December 06, 2006 at 11:05 PM (#2253352)
Regardless, a lineup that has Lugo and Pedroia as the weak spots is a really nice lineup and the Sox will go into 2007 without any black holes in the lineup

How could your forget about Pedroia when you mentioned him earlier in the sentence?


As is well known, Pedroia is a Triple Crown candidate.
   38. Rough Carrigan Posted: December 07, 2006 at 05:46 AM (#2253840)
That projection shows Lugo with 545 at bats and scoring only 84 runs after 159 hits and 50 walks. Does that projection not take into account the context of who's likely to be batting behind him?
   39. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: December 07, 2006 at 09:07 AM (#2253948)
the red sox offense next year will beat the #### out of most pitchers. christ. if i was a pitcher, i'd get it worked into my contract that i didn't have to pitch to the sox in '07.
   40. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: December 07, 2006 at 10:10 AM (#2253967)
Did anybody read that article posted here written by a "JT the Brick"?

My god that guy hates Veronica
   41. Josh Posted: December 07, 2006 at 02:43 PM (#2254018)
As is well known, Pedroia is a Triple Crown candidate.


I'm positive that Pedroia would be a better jockey than David Wright.
   42. bibigon Posted: December 07, 2006 at 07:28 PM (#2254414)
I don't know what you're asking. Click on my homepage to see the full projection line. Drew's triple crown stats are 'blah' because he doesn't play enough to pile up HR and RBI, and his obp/slg stats are very good because he gets much of his value from walks.


Sorry - I should have been clearer. Why the disparity between Chone and other projection systems in his rate stats? It seems to be an unusually wide differential for computerized systems.

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