Red Sox - Signed Drew, Lugo
Boston Red Sox - Signed OF J.D. Drew to a 5-year contract worth $70 million; signed SS Julio Lugo to a 4-year contract worth $36 million.
It’s hard to say exactly how both these contracts will affect the team in the long run, as it depends on what the Sox do with Manny. I’m guessing that they don’t trade Manny. Drew is a pretty good centerfielder, certainly a lot better than Crisp or Pena are out there, but I’m a little worried about Drew out there because while he’s more durable than he used to be, he’s still not Ripken and I think I’d want to keep him out of the higher-impact position, all things considered. $14 million for Drew actually seems like one of the best top free agent deals this offseason, which is kind of scary in itself. For health, I’d put my money on Carlos Lee, but I’d rather have Drew since he’s more likely to be actually good. And you can insure catastrophic injuries while you can’t insure a player turning into the Goodyear Blimp, so I’ll take J.D. over El Gastrónomo. ZiPS is really sour on Drew for some reason - probably the decline in home runs.
Lugo’s not a superstar but again, he’s preferable to the other players signed this offseason to similar deals. I like Pedroia, but he’s not going to play both infield positions for the team. Another $9 million is a decent chunk to bite, even on a big-market team, but this is what you risk when you trade off some of your depth. Regardless, a lineup that has Lugo and Pedroia as the weak spots is a really nice lineup and the Sox will go into 2007 without any black holes in the lineup (the rotation being another story).
2007 ZiPS Projections
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Player AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG
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Drew 436 74 116 30 3 15 74 80 97 4 .266 .383 .452
Lugo 545 84 159 36 3 7 57 50 113 26 .292 .355 .407
Dan Szymborski
Posted: December 06, 2006 at 01:58 PM |
45 comment(s)
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1. Marc Sully's not booin'. He's Youkin'.Help me out with the black hole: Matsuzaka, Schilling, Beckett, Wakefield, Papelbon
I see plenty of risk there, but "black holes?"
Still, it´s both him and Lugo, for about the same yearly money Houston is paying Carlos Lee. Not too bad.
What's wrong with getting that from your center fielder? Isn't that better than what Johnny Damon did last year?
Heck, aside from the extra year, which is apparently contingent to some degree on performance, aren't the two deals pretty similar? If Drew can really play center, which I believe he can, I'd rather have him than Damon.
What's wrong with getting that from your center fielder? Isn't that better than what Johnny Damon did last year?
Heck, aside from the extra year, which is apparently contingent to some degree on performance, aren't the two deals pretty similar? If Drew can really play center, which I believe he can, I'd rather have him than Damon.
-Interesting how little love there is for Drew in the projection systems, despite the general stathead appreciation of the guy.
-The Red Sox' black hole is in the bullpen, not the rotation.
Nope. I did. I meant total commitment.
The Chone has him at .286/.405/.506, but the triple crown stats say .286/19/73 in 431 AB.
Compare that to Lee, .288/31/99 looks much better. But Drew beats him 28-14 in park adjust LWTS per 600 PA.
What do you have their LWTS at for projected PA?
Yeah, just behind at the moment.
What is this, Dan, your busy season? We demand a Burgos ZIPS projection within the hour! Or else we might have to take our business to another comprehensive, yet free source!
Drew can play 162 games, but until the Red Sox get a GM who has some sort of a clue about how to obtain good pitching, I'm not going to worry too much about them.
Drew + Lugo = 106m
C: Varitek 9.0
1B: Youkilis minimum+
2B: Pedroia minimum
SS: Lugo 9.0?
3B: Lowell 8.0
LF: Ramirez 18.0
CF: Crisp 4.5
RF: Drew 14.0?
DH: Ortiz 12.5
C: Kotteras minimum
UT: Cora 1.5?
UT: Hinske 2.5?
UT: Pena 2-3?
UT?
SP: Schilling 13.0
SP:
SP: Papelbon minimum+
SP: Beckett 8.0
SP: Wakefield 4.0
RP: Timlin 2.8
RP: Delcarmen minimum
RP: Tavarez 3.1
RP: Okajima 1.25?
RP:
RP:
RP?
DL: Clement 9.5
Offhand, that brings the Sox up to about $126 million, give or take a couple million. The bullpen is still weak (to put it mildly!) and they're still missing a starter, but the field-players part of the roster is mostly settled, barring some trades.
You're right. I shouldn't have said miraculous. I just wanted to get across that Lester is far from a sure thing, and that the chemo may have weakened him to a point where he just needs to get his strength back up. Since he's only 23, I don't think a little more seasoning in the minors would hurt, either.
Drew, 517 PA +24
Lee 640 PA, +15
Then there's an 8 run or so difference in defense, so even missing his time for injury to be named later, Drew beats Lee by 15-20 runs.
One thing about the other projections. They seem to be hurt badly by his drop in power, but I think a lot of that was the wrist injury. His power jumped a bunch in the 2nd half, and I expect it to stay a bit higher than he showed last year. Maybe that's a bit too optimistic but CHONE agrees with me!
Thanks, but you might want to check its accuracy vs the others on my blog. They are all pretty close, but it wasn't the tops last year. Next year? We'll see.
Dan, I'm confused how you have Drew at a .266 BA. He's hit under .280 only 2X in his career, his rookie year and then a bad season 5 years ago. He's moving to one of the best ballparks for batting average, especially for a lefty hitter.
Is it age? Poor comparables? An ALE? (American League Equivalancy - a must for last year's stats at least.)
BBBBBooorrrrriiinnngggg. I'd rather just pick and choose the projections I like.
Why the disparity? That's unusual for computerized projection systems...
How could your forget about Pedroia when you mentioned him earlier in the sentence?
I don't know what you're asking. Click on my homepage to see the full projection line. Drew's triple crown stats are 'blah' because he doesn't play enough to pile up HR and RBI, and his obp/slg stats are very good because he gets much of his value from walks.
As is well known, Pedroia is a Triple Crown candidate.
My god that guy hates Veronica
I'm positive that Pedroia would be a better jockey than David Wright.
Sorry - I should have been clearer. Why the disparity between Chone and other projection systems in his rate stats? It seems to be an unusually wide differential for computerized systems.
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