Red Sox - Signed Lackey

Boston Red Sox - Signed P John Lackey to a 5-year, $85 million contract.

This one is pretty similar to the Burnett signing last year, both for the financial terms and the quality of the pitcher.  As with Burnett, there are serious risks involved.  Lackey hasn’t been completely healthy in either of the last two season and his strikeout rate, close to 9 in his breakout season, has been slowly sliding and is now around 7 per 9 innings.  Now, it’s normal for strikeout rate to slowly decline for pitchers, but it’s usually compensated for by an improved walk rate and compensating enough to keep the pitcher from being easier to hit.  Lackey has gotten a bit easier to hit, however.

However, as long as the expectations aren’t unrealistic (Lackey’s not someone who should go into seasons as one of the Cy Young favorites), the Red Sox shouldn’t be too disappointed with the results.

ZiPS Projection - John Lackey
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            W   L   G  GS   IP    H   ER  HR  BB  SO   ERA   ERA+
————————————————————————————————-

2010       13   9  30  30 194.2 197   87  21  55 151  4.02   113   

2011       12   9  29  29 187.0 191   87  22  55 146  4.19   109  

2012       11   9  28  28 180.0 184   84  21  53 140  4.20   108

2013       11   9  28  28 179.2 185   85  21  53 139  4.26   107

2014       10   9  26  26 168.0 175   82  21  51 130  4.39   104   	
————————————————————————————————-

Top Comps:  Mike Mussina, Bret Saberhagen, Aaron Harang

ERA

Top 1/3 56%

Mid 1/3 41%

Bot 1/3 3%

ERA+            BB

>150    3%
<1.5    1%

>
140    7%  
<2.0    12%

>
130    15%  
<2.5    51%

>
120    34%  
<3.0    87%

>
110    56%  
<3.5    98%

>
100    81%  
<4.0    100%

>
90     97%

>80     100%    HR

>70     100%    <0.7    16%

                <1.0    61%

K/9             <1.3    89%

>9      1%      <1.6    99%

>8      10%

>7      49%

>6      89%

(Based on Projected IP)